The ongoing war has significantly altered Russia’s domestic and international position, yet its post-war future remains highly uncertain. Will Russia stabilize under an increasingly repressive regime, experience economic collapse, or transform into an even more aggressive, ultranationalist state? For Ukraine, victory is essential for its sovereignty and long-term security. For Russia, the war has become a test of regime survival, with its outcome determining the political and ideological direction of the state.
This work provides a comprehensive analysis of Russia’s future trajectory and its implications for geopolitical stability, security policies, and power shifts among global actors. It examines four key areas: Russia, the West, non-Western actors, and global institutions. This first volume focuses on Russia and the West.
The section on Russia delves into its domestic political, economic, and social transformations. Persistent support for Putin’s regime, rooted in ultra-nationalism and a perceived existential struggle against Western influence, reinforces the regime’s stability. Furthermore, the rise of pro-war factions in Russia indicates a growing demand for harsher measures, historical revisionism, and territorial expansion.
The section on the West examines the responses of the United States, NATO, and the European Union to Russia’s aggression. Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has deepened tensions, the framework of relations with Russia has not changed, as well as U.S. policy mechanisms toward it and its threat to the West. The Biden administration employed a cautious policy toward Russia, mainly influenced by the Kremlin’s nuclear intimidation and the so-called “red lines.” However, Russia’s growing alignment with China, its determination to undermine European security, and its persistent challenge to the U.S.-led global order suggest that a shift in American strategy may be inevitable.
As for NATO, years of underfunding and dependence on the American military presence in Europe made the Alliance vulnerable to the Russian threat. Despite implementing new strategies, increasing defense investments, and strengthening the Eastern flank, NATO members are still on their way to addressing issues of industrial capabilities, internal cohesion, and readiness for continued instability. The antagonism formed by the Russian regime toward the Alliance might outlive its creator and make member states turn to arms as never before.
Meanwhile, the war has prompted the European Union to take a more decisive geopolitical stance and mobilize unprecedented support for Ukraine. However, it has also highlighted persistent challenges in the EU’s decision-making and its ability to act as a unified geopolitical actor. Moving forward, the EU’s approach to Russia and its broader geopolitical strategy depends on its capacity to integrate non-EU regional actors into a stable security framework and strengthen its global influence. This makes us consider not only the future of EU-Russia relations but also the evolution of the European project itself.
Ukraine and its Western allies must prepare for a future in which Russia remains a long-term threat. This analysis seeks to answer these questions and provide a necessary framework for understanding why post-war Russia is likely to continue its aggressive policies, how it has sustained its war economy, and why existing Western strategies require recalibration.
