On the 17th of December, the President of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, Maksym Skrypchenko, participated in an online briefing organized by the Center for Liberal Modernity titled “Ensuring Ukraine’s Strength amid Uncertainty over the US’s Allegiance.” Alongside Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, and Constanze Stelzenmüller, Director of Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe, he analyzed the evolving dynamics of peace negotiations and Ukraine’s strategic position.
The briefing, moderated by Ralf Fuecks, Founder and CEO of LibMod, examined critical questions about Europe’s role and American engagement in potential peace talks following recent negotiations in Berlin.
During his remarks, TDC President emphasized that Ukraine’s approach has evolved significantly since early 2025, particularly in navigating the Trump administration. Much of the recent diplomatic discourse has centered on avoiding blame for disrupting peace talks, which has paradoxically helped keep conversations moving forward. According to Maksym Skrypchenko, while Ukrainian and US officials have achieved several breakthroughs on easily resolved issues, core questions, particularly territorial matters, remain unresolved with the initiative now in Russia’s hands.
Maksym Skrypchenko highlighted the fundamental challenge at the heart of negotiations: whether Russia can recognize Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign state. This question, he stressed, remains central to any discussion of security guarantees. He pointed to battlefield leverage as the most critical factor in successful negotiations, noting that Ukraine’s negotiating position has consistently been strongest when backed by military success.
Among the key insights shared:
- The Trump administration’s approach of “trying harder” when talks stall may eventually create a moment when US officials recognize that Ukraine has made concessions while Russia remains intransigent, potentially shifting American pressure dynamics.
- European nations, particularly Nordic and Baltic countries, offer valuable models for how to maintain support for Ukraine while building effective communication channels with the current US administration.
- While recent US sanctions on Russian oil companies signal some willingness to pressure Moscow, the fundamental question remains whether the Trump administration will commit to the sustained pressure necessary to bring Russia to serious negotiations.
The briefing concluded with a consensus among speakers that Europe must prepare to significantly increase its support for Ukraine to ensure Ukraine can negotiate any future peace agreement from a position of genuine strength rather than vulnerability.