Marianna Fakhurdinova, Coordinator of the EU–Ukraine Partnership Program at the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, provided a comment to Polish Radio for Ukraine on the readiness of the United States and Europe to defend NATO’s eastern flank amid growing Russian threats.
Fakhurdinova emphasised that the key challenge lies not only in individual incidents, such as drone incursions into European airspace or the activity of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” but also in the absence of a comprehensive and coherent strategy to deter Russia. According to her, European responses to hybrid attacks remain largely ad hoc, while Europe is still searching for an effective model of security coordination.
She stressed that even in cases where the threat is clear, EU member states often act in a fragmented manner. Decisions continue to be taken at the national level, as control over security policy remains a highly sensitive issue for national governments. As a result, the response appears inconsistent: some countries stop vessels linked to Russia’s “shadow fleet,” while others do not; similarly, there was no unified and firm response to Russian drone incursions into EU airspace.
Fakhurdinova also addressed the debate on Europe’s strategic autonomy. She noted that a complete shift away from U.S. weaponry and a rapid replacement of the U.S. role are not realistic scenarios at this stage. According to some estimates, such a transition could cost Europe around USD 1 trillion. Although the EU is already investing in defence programmes and has allocated EUR 150 billion for rearmament, the pace of these changes remains insufficient.
She further underlined that Europe’s dependence on the United States is not only financial, but also technological. This includes critical capabilities such as Patriot air defence systems, long-range missile systems, logistics, intelligence, and the U.S. nuclear umbrella. These elements currently play a central role not only in supporting Ukraine, but also in sustaining the broader architecture of European security.
At the same time, Fakhurdinova noted that Europe is gradually building up its own defence capabilities, but that this is a long and complex process that largely depends on the political will of individual states. Therefore, in her assessment, fully replacing the United States is not a near-term prospect; rather, the priority should be stronger European coordination, sustained investment, and strategic planning.
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