In her article for Warsaw Institute, TDC`s Director of Research Daryna Sydorenko analyzed the precedent of the violation of Poland’s territorial integrity by Russian drones.
The September 10 drone incursions into Poland showed how Russia can impose disproportionate costs on NATO with low-price systems while sowing doubt through disinformation. The alliance’s initial response demonstrated solidarity but also revealed hesitation and divergent threat perceptions – precisely the weaknesses Moscow seeks to exploit.
Three priorities emerge.
- First, allies must scale production of affordable air- and missile-defense systems, including counter-drone components, and embed industrial resilience into defense strategy.
- Second, air defense must be treated as a shared asset, integrating Ukrainian operational innovations and ensuring national stockpiling does not undermine alliance support.
- Third, hybrid and information operations must be countered proactively: Moscow will continue to wage narrative campaigns in tandem with kinetic probes. They require sustained political unity and forward-leaning deterrence as a response.
The credibility of NATO’s deterrence will be measured by whether these lessons evolve into enduring institutional changes (industrial, operational, and political) that would make other possible hybrid attacks meaningless. Without such developments, Russia’s next attack may find gaps where unity once held firm.
Read full article in the Warsaw Intitute.
