Kamala Harris’ Strategic Role in the Russia-Ukraine War: What Does the Future Hold?

By Anna-Mariia Mandzii

The presidential election campaign in the United States keeps developing with unpredictable twists and turns. After Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the campaign, Kamala Harris, the incumbent Vice President, assumed the role of the Democratic Party’s candidate, appointing Tim Wolz, Senator from Minnesota, her Vice-President candidate. According to the latest polls, she holds a slight lead over Trump. This underscores the necessity of analyzing her possible strategy for the Russia-Ukraine war.

What Has Been the Vice President’s Performance on the Russia-Ukraine War So Far?

Over Joseph Biden’s presidential term, Kamala Harris has followed his administration’s policy on Ukraine. Experts highlight her role in representing the United States at pivotal international gatherings concerning the events in Ukraine. Before the full-scale invasion, the Vice President led the American delegation at the Munich Security Conference in February 2022. There, she reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s security and its readiness to respond to any attack by the Russian Federation. She also furnished Ukrainian officials with the latest intelligence reports to equip them for a potential invasion better. Despite President Zelenskyi’s appeals for preventive sanctions on Russia and an increase in weapon supplies, including anti-aircraft systems and heavy artillery, Kamala Harris adhered to the White House’s official position. This stance reportedly caused some tension between the parties during the conference. Many observers highlight this moment, noting that the relationship between Harris and Zelensky is complex, which could influence the Harris administration’s policy towards Ukraine. Moreover, during Biden’s presidency, there was insufficient motivation and opportunity for the two leaders to deepen their relationship, primarily because the President himself, along with some of his advisers and the Secretary of State, played a more prominent role in shaping U.S. policy towards Ukraine, unlike the Vice President.

After the full-scale invasion began, Vice President Kamala Harris consistently upheld the positions of the White House and President Joe Biden. Notably, Harris represented the United States at the Munich Security Conference in both 2023 and 2024 and participated in the Peace Summit organized by Ukraine in June 2024. She also raised the issue of Ukraine during her meetings with European leaders, emphasizing the security of the European continent and the importance of providing long-term support to Ukraine. However, while Harris met with President Zelenskyi, she never visited Ukraine, unlike President Biden, who had established ties with Ukraine during his tenure in the Obama administration.

Kamala Harris’ Anticipated Strategy on Ukraine

Early analyses of Vice President Harris’ strategy for the Russian-Ukrainian war suggest she will likely continue the Biden administration’s robust support for Ukraine, including financial and military aid while implementing measures to prevent escalation and avoid drawing the U.S. and NATO into open conflict with Russia. Harris is expected to maintain the U.S.’s active involvement in NATO and European security. Her foreign policy focus may shift more toward Asia, though, which holds greater strategic importance for the U.S., given the dynamics of U.S.-China relations. Additionally, it is important to note that Harris’ stance on the U.S. support for Israel differs somewhat from Biden’s. She holds a position that resonates particularly well with younger American voters.

Although the Harris administration will remain committed to international alliances, particularly NATO, American focus on Ukraine might somewhat diminish due to domestic political challenges. While military support for Ukraine is not expected to change significantly, some experts suggest that the Harris team may lift some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons, encouraging European allies, including France, the UK, Central European states, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, and possibly even Germany, to adopt a tougher stance on Russia and take a leading role within the Western coalition supporting Ukraine. However, one should not anticipate more decisive actions aimed at defeating Russia in the war, nor a substantial increase in American attention to the Russian-Ukrainian war as such.Harris represents a generational and worldview shift. Unlike Biden, whose career was significantly shaped by the Cold War and whose strategy in Ukraine reflects that era’s influence, the Vice President embodies the perspective of a new generation of American leadership. As the former Attorney General and Senator of California, she has a deep understanding of critical U.S. domestic issues, including immigration, healthcare, reproductive rights, AI, and climate change — topics that strongly resonate with young Americans. Yet, as an internationalist, she advocates for robust American global leadership, believing it strengthens the United States and protects the interests of its people. Nevertheless, her foreign policy may increasingly focus on forging stronger alliances outside of Europe, driven by a more globalized view of American engagement, the necessity to secure supply chains, and the need to counter China’s influence, all while continuing Biden’s policies in the European region. Overall, Kamala Harris’ strategy on Ukraine will likely rely heavily on her top advisers, who possess extensive experience and have served in previous presidential administrations.

“I believe it is in the fundamental interest of the American people for the United States to fulfill our longstanding role of global leadership. … I strongly believe America’s role in global leadership is to the direct benefit of the American people. Our leadership keeps our homeland safe, supports American jobs, secures supply chains, and opens new markets for American goods,” said Kamala Harris during her speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2024.

There has been some criticism regarding the Vice President’s foreign policy experience. Despite some manipulations about her lack of experience in international policy-making due to her previous primarily law enforcement career, she is actually considered to be one of the most internationally experienced presidential candidates since George H.W. Bush in 1989 (excluding Joe Biden).

Firstly, during her tenure as Senator, she served on the Intelligence and Homeland Security Committees, which granted her access to classified U.S. national security information. Additionally, since the beginning of her Vice President tenure, she has been replacing Biden at various international gatherings. Notably, her role in the U.S. response to Russia’s war against Ukraine has been significant, as she has engaged in high-stakes events in Europe and met with President Zelenskyi six times. This indicates her familiarity with what’s at stake in Ukraine and the strategic importance of U.S. support for Ukraine in the war. What is also worth mentioning is the Vice President’s human rights approach. Given her experience as a prosecutor, she has an uncompromising approach to human rights violations, which is particularly evident in her somewhat different stance on the conflict in Gaza compared to Joe Biden. Regarding Ukraine, Kamala Harris has repeatedly highlighted Russia’s war crimes in her speeches, notably during the 2023 Munich Security Conference.

“First, from the starting days of this unprovoked war, we have witnessed Russian forces engage in horrendous atrocities and war crimes. … And let us be clear: Russian forces have pursued a widespread and systemic attack against a civilian population — gruesome acts of murder, torture, rape, and deportation. Execution-style killings, beatings, and electrocution. … The United States has formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity.”

Moreover, in this speech, she emphasized the importance of prosecuting perpetrators of war crimes. This suggests that the Vice President’s approach could significantly impact the international investigation of Russian crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Additionally, she reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ukraine, the necessity of protecting the international order, and the long-term benefits of U.S. involvement in Ukraine for the American people.

What Might Be Kamala Harris’ Administration and What Does It Mean to Ukraine?

Kamala Harris recently selected Tim Walz as her running mate, a choice viewed as favorable for supporting Ukraine. According to Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, Governor Walz is a steadfast ally of Ukraine. Notably, he was among the first governors to mandate the termination of all state-owned company contracts with Russia in 2022. Therefore, it can be assumed that Ukraine will remain a strategic interest for the White House if the Harris-Walz team wins.

Experts believe Harris’ policy on Ukraine will largely depend on her top advisers. There’s a good chance she will continue the Biden administration’s strategy on Ukraine but is expected to replace several of Biden’s key appointees – National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Her current advisory team is described as “traditionalist” and “internationalist,” with extensive experience in the previous White House administrations. Harris’ current national security adviser, Philip Gordon, who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations and is an expert on Europe, is likely to succeed Jake Sullivan if Harris is elected. This change is seen as favorable for Ukraine. Sullivan is known for his “no-escalation” stance on the Russian-Ukrainian war, particularly regarding restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American munitions for strikes deep inside Russia. Although Gordon’s public statements suggest he shares a similar perspective, his presence in the Harris administration might ensure continued American engagement in Ukraine and a recognition that Ukraine’s resilience is crucial to American strategic interests.

Apart from Philip Gordon, Rebecca Lissner, who currently holds the position of deputy national security adviser, is expected to maintain her role in the Harris’ team. Other key individuals to watch are Tom Donilon, former national security adviser under Obama, and Rahm Emanuel, now serving as the U.S. ambassador to Japan.

Michèle Flournoy, who served as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy during Obama’s tenure, is likely to become the first female Secretary of Defense. She has been supportive of Ukraine since the first days of the full-scale invasion, emphasizing the importance of drawing lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war to better prepare for future crises. Flournoy also mentioned the fact that the U.S. and its allies could have provided Ukraine with more weaponry prior to the invasion, thereby enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities.

Conclusions

In conclusion, Kamala Harris’ anticipated approach to the Russia-Ukraine war represents a continuation of the Biden administration’s policies, emphasizing strong support for Ukraine through financial and military aid while maintaining a strategic focus on avoiding direct conflict with Russia. At the same time, some predict that Kamala Harris’s policy could lead to a transfer of leadership in supporting Ukraine to certain European allies. Nevertheless, her tenure as Vice President has shown a commitment to international alliances and a proactive stance on European security, which is expected to persist. Meanwhile, Harris’ broader foreign policy perspective, shaped by her generational and professional background, may introduce nuanced shifts, particularly towards global engagement beyond Europe and addressing emerging geopolitical challenges. The potential changes in her advisory team, along with the selection of Tim Walz as her running mate, indicate a sustained dedication to Ukraine’s cause but are unlikely to significantly alter Ukraine’s prospects against Russia.

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