{"id":32929,"date":"2025-10-30T13:44:06","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T11:44:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=32929"},"modified":"2026-07-04T12:01:02","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T09:01:02","slug":"strategic-retreat-assessing-the-implications-of-a-u-s-withdrawal-from-european-security","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/zh\/2025\/10\/30\/strategic-retreat-assessing-the-implications-of-a-u-s-withdrawal-from-european-security\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6218\u7565\u64a4\u9000\uff1f\u8bc4\u4f30\u7f8e\u56fd\u64a4\u51fa\u6b27\u6d32\u5b89\u5168\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"51880\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"\u4e0b\u8f7d\u82f1\u6587\u7248 PDF\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>\u4e0b\u8f7d\u82f1\u6587\u7248 PDF<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">2 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">\u6838\u5fc3\u8981\u70b9<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6218\u7565\u91cd\u70b9\u9010\u6b65\u8f6c\u5411\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u627f\u8bfa\u8fdb\u884c&nbsp;<strong>\u91cd\u65b0\u6821\u51c6\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5168\u9762\u64a4\u51fa&nbsp;<\/strong>\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u91cd\u5851\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u5a01\u6151\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7f29\u51cf\u90e8\u7f72\u53ef\u80fd\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u6b27\u6d32\u9632\u5fa1\u67b6\u6784\u7684&nbsp;<strong>\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5f31\u70b9<\/strong>&nbsp;in Europe\u2019s defense architecture, particularly in strategic airlift, ISR, refueling, and integrated air and missile defense \u2014&nbsp;capabilities still heavily dependent on U.S. assets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e1c\u897f\u6b27\u5bf9\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u8ba4\u77e5\u53ef\u80fd&nbsp;<strong>\u52a0\u6df1\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u88c2\u75d5<\/strong>\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u9632\u52a1\u5f00\u652f\u589e\u957f\u4e0d\u5747\uff0c\u8d1f\u62c5\u5206\u62c5\u548c\u91c7\u8d2d\u534f\u8c03\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u6b63\u6210\u4e3a&nbsp;<strong>\u6709\u671b\u586b\u8865\u80fd\u529b\u7f3a\u53e3\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e09\u56fd\u80fd\u5426\u5f62\u6210\u5747\u8861\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u683c\u5c40\uff0c\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u4ea7\u4e1a\u3001\u4f5c\u6218\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u8bae\u7a0b\u80fd\u5426\u534f\u8c03\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\u7f29\u51cf\u5c06\u52a0\u901f\u6b27\u6d32&nbsp;<strong>\u5bf9\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42<\/strong>&nbsp;\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8003\u9a8c\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u9646\u5728\u7f3a\u5c11\u5355\u4e00\u8de8\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u652f\u67f1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7ef4\u6301\u5bf9\u4fc4\u53ef\u4fe1\u5a01\u6151\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The extent to which Washington\u2019s realignment remains a tactical adjustment&nbsp;or evolves into a genuine strategic withdrawal will determine the future cohesion and credibility of the transatlantic alliance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1244\" height=\"505\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Strategic Retreat? Assessing the Implications of a U.S. Withdrawal from European Security\" class=\"wp-image-32932\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1.png 1244w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-600x244.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-1024x416.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-768x312.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1244px) 100vw, 1244px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u6218\u7565\u91cd\u70b9\u8f6c\u5411\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u91cd\u5851\u4e86\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u65b9\u9488\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ade\u4e89 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isas.nus.edu.sg\/papers\/new-directions-and-challenges-of-the-trump-2-0-indo-pacific-strategy\/\">\u52a0\u5267<\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u9646\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u627f\u8bfa\u9010\u6b65\u91cd\u65b0\u6821\u51c6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5bf9\u5317\u7ea6\u672a\u6765\u5a01\u6151\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u4e5f\u5173\u7cfb\u5230\u6b27\u6d32\u662f\u5426\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u4e3a\u81ea\u8eab\u9632\u52a1\u627f\u62c5\u66f4\u591a\u8d23\u4efb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u683c\u5c40\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u76df\u53cb\u9762\u4e34\u53cc\u91cd\u6311\u6218\uff1a\u9002\u5e94\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u6e90\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u7ef4\u62a4\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u9646\u6218\u7565\u7a33\u5b9a\u6240\u9700\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u3001\u4f5c\u6218\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u63a2\u8ba8\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u90e8\u5206\u64a4\u51fa\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a0\u5f3a\u6b27\u6d32\u9632\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u7684\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-u-s-posture-and-commitments-in-europe\"><strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6001\u52bf\u4e0e\u627f\u8bfa<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u5e94\u4ec5\u628a\u7f8e\u56fd\u90e8\u5206\u64a4\u519b\u89c6\u4e3a\u8d44\u6e90\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u65bd\u538b\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u52a0\u5f3a\u81ea\u8eab\u9632\u5fa1\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u5347\u5176\u4fdd\u969c\u5730\u533a\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76ee\u524d\uff0c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/article\/where-are-us-forces-deployed-europe\">\u670975,000\u81f3105,000\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4eba\u9a7b\u624e\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u9646<\/a>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5728\u7a7a\u519b\u548c\u6d77\u519b\u670d\u5f79\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u62e5\u670940\u591a\u5904\u4e0d\u540c\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u91cf\u88c5\u7532\u8f66\u8f86\u3001\u98de\u673a\u3001\u591a\u7ba1\u706b\u7bad\u70ae\u548c\u7ea6100\u679a\u6218\u672f\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u3002\u6839\u636e IISS \u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u7ea6\u5360 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/ja-JP\/online-analysis\/military-balance\/2018\/07\/us-and-nato-allies-costs-and-value\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u9884\u7b97\u76845%\u81f36%<\/a>\uff1b\u82e5\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7528\u4e8e2025\u8d22\u5e74\u56fd\u9632\u9884\u7b97\u603b\u989d\uff08\u7ea6 <a href=\"https:\/\/comptroller.defense.gov\/Portals\/45\/Documents\/defbudget\/FY2025\/FY2025_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf\">9000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u5219\u7f8e\u56fd\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\u5b89\u5168\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6210\u672c\u7ea6\u4e3a450\u4ebf\u81f3540\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u5458\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u6f14\u4e60\u548c\u8054\u5408\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1016\" height=\"571\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Strategic Retreat? Assessing the Implications of a U.S. Withdrawal from European Security\" class=\"wp-image-32933\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2.png 1016w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-2-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1016px) 100vw, 1016px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c\u90e8\u5206\u64a4\u51fa\u201d\u662f\u6307\u51cf\u5c11\u90e8\u961f\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u88c5\u5907\u548c\u6b66\u5668\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u6b64\u7c7b\u7f29\u51cf\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u5177\u4f53\u53c2\u6570\u3002\u5728\u73b0\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6cbb\u4e0b\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u9a7b\u6b27\u7f8e\u519b\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6709\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u591a\u53d7\u5230\u603b\u7edf\u4e2a\u4eba\u53d6\u5411\u53ca\u5176\u4eb2\u5bc6\u987e\u95ee\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6216\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u7b49\u673a\u6784\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u8bc1\u662f\uff1a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2025\/06\/23\/trump-iran-strikes-congress-approval\/\">2025\u5e746\u6708\u6253\u51fb\u4f0a\u6717\u6838\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a<\/a> \u672a\u7ecf\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e8b\u5148\u6279\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5168\u9762\u64a4\u51fa\u5c06\u4e25\u91cd\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5931\u53bb\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u540e\u52e4\u57fa\u5730\u53ca\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u62c9\u59c6\u65bd\u6cf0\u56e0\u7a7a\u519b\u57fa\u5730\u548c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7684\u7f57\u5854\u6d77\u519b\u57fa\u5730\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u5730\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bf9\u5176\u5168\u7403\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\u53d1\u6325\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5168\u9762\u64a4\u519b\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5317\u7ea6\u5185\u90e8\u5f15\u53d1\u4e25\u91cd\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u53ef\u88ab\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7528\u6765\u6269\u5927\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u6218\u7565\u771f\u7a7a\u3002 <strong>Thus, despite the political rhetoric and the Trump administration&#8217;s desire to cut spending, the United States cannot afford to completely abandon its military presence in Europe.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u56fd\u4f1a\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u5e74\u5ea6\u56fd\u9632\u6388\u6743\u548c\u62e8\u6b3e\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5236\u5b9a\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u6307\u793a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5c06\u5175\u529b\u6001\u52bf\u5411\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\u91cd\u65b0\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8bbe\u5b9a\u9a7b\u6b27\u5e38\u9a7b\u5175\u529b\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4ee5\u9884\u7f6e\u5e93\u5b58\u53d6\u4ee3\u90e8\u5206\u8f6e\u6362\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u7f29\u51cf\u90e8\u7f72\u4e0e\u76df\u56fd\u80fd\u529b\u63d0\u5347\u548c\u6218\u5907\u57fa\u51c6\u6302\u94a9\u3002\u6b64\u7c7b\u8ba1\u5212\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8de8\u591a\u4e2a\u9884\u7b97\u5468\u671f\u5206\u9636\u6bb5\u63a8\u8fdb\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u63d0\u4ea4\u8be6\u7ec6\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4fdd\u62a4\u7a7a\u8fd0\u3001\u7a7a\u4e2d\u52a0\u6cb9\u3001ISR\u548c\u5bfc\u5f39\u9632\u5fa1\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u6269\u5927\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5206\u644a\u548c\u8054\u5408\u91c7\u8d2d\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u539f\u56e0\u4e0b\u4ee4\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u524a\u51cf\u7ea610%\uff0c\u6216\u8fdb\u884c\u5e45\u5ea6\u9ad8\u8fbe50%\u7684\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u524a\u51cf\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5175\u529b\u6001\u52bf\u8c03\u6574\u5199\u5165\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u9884\u7b97\u5468\u671f\u5185\u5206\u9636\u6bb5\u5b9e\u65bd\u64a4\u51cf\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u76df\u56fd\u80fd\u529b\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u6302\u94a9\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u5317\u7ea6\u7b2c\u4e94\u6761\u5f97\u5230\u7ef4\u62a4\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5175\u529b\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u8f6c\u5411\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6218\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-strategic-consequences-of-a-partial-withdrawal\"><strong>\u90e8\u5206\u64a4\u51fa\u7684\u6218\u7565\u540e\u679c<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u90e8\u5206\u64a4\u51fa\u6b27\u6d32\u5c06\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5bfc\u81f4\u6b27\u4e9a\u5927\u9646\u6218\u7565\u529b\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6b64\u4e3e\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u540e\u679c\uff1a\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u90e8\u5206\u6218\u7565\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u5de9\u56fa\u81ea\u8eab\u5730\u4f4d\u5e76\u6269\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u540e\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5317\u7ea6\u8d70\u5411\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u627f\u8bfa\u51cf\u5f31\u53ef\u80fd\u66b4\u9732\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u6f5c\u85cf\u7684\u88c2\u75d5\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e1c\u6b27\u4e0e\u897f\u6b27\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5bf9\u5a01\u80c1\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u76f4\u63a5\u9762\u4e34\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4fb5\u7565\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u8fc5\u901f\u800c\u679c\u65ad\u5730\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff1b\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u897f\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5916\u4ea4\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u5317\u7ea6\u51dd\u805a\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u96c6\u4f53\u5e94\u5bf9\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6743\u529b\u771f\u7a7a\u53ef\u80fd\u524a\u5f31\u5730\u533a\u5a01\u6151\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5347\u7ea7\u5e38\u89c4\u548c\u6df7\u5408\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u901a\u8fc7\u7f51\u7edc\u653b\u51fb\u3001\u865a\u5047\u4fe1\u606f\u884c\u52a8\u548c\u79d8\u5bc6\u884c\u52a8\u7834\u574f\u8106\u5f31\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a military perspective, Europe&#8217;s ability to effectively fill the gaps left by the partial withdrawal of US troops remains uncertain, despite recent initiatives such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/RegData\/etudes\/BRIE\/2025\/769566\/EPRS_BRI(2025)769566_EN.pdf\">European Commission&#8217;s ReArm Europe Plan\/Readiness 2030<\/a>\u7b49\u65e8\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u9632\u52a1\u91c7\u8d2d\u5408\u4f5c\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u6b27\u6d32\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u7684\u5021\u8bae\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u519b\u961f\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34 <a href=\"https:\/\/cepa.org\/article\/what-european-nato-lacks\/\">\u5173\u952e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u80fd\u529b\u7f3a\u53e3<\/a>, such as strategic airlift, air refueling, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and integrated air and missile defense systems &#8211; all areas traditionally supported by US capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"999\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Strategic Retreat? Assessing the Implications of a U.S. Withdrawal from European Security\" class=\"wp-image-32934\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3.png 999w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-3-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 999px) 100vw, 999px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b27\u6d32\u9632\u52a1\u5de5\u4e1a\u66ff\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u90e8\u961f\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u4ee4\u4eba\u9f13\u821e\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u62e5\u6709\u5c16\u7aef\u9632\u52a1\u5de5\u4e1a\u57fa\u7840\uff0cRheinmetall\u3001Airbus Defense\u3001BAE Systems\u3001Leonardo \u548c Dassault \u7b49\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u80fd\u591f\u751f\u4ea7\u590d\u6742\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u91cd\u5927 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/policy-brief\/european-defence-industrial-strategy-hostile-world\">\u969c\u788d<\/a>: a fragmented market that discourages cross-border buying, duplication across national programs, and limited surge capacity with long lead times for munitions and air-defence components. Accelerating joint defense procurement and industry consolidation, necessary to meet Europe&#8217;s security needs after the withdrawal of US troops, remains a challenge, although they are increasingly recognized as strategically necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9632\u52a1\u5de5\u4e1a\u6700\u521d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u4e3a\u5f25\u8865\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u7f3a\u53e3\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u91c7\u8d2d\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u635f\u5931 <a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2025\/06\/if-america-abandons-europe-will-the-continent-fragment-or-unify\/\">\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848<\/a>\u3002\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c <a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2025\/06\/if-america-abandons-europe-will-the-continent-fragment-or-unify\/\">\u524a\u5f31\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6218\u7565\u91cd\u8981\u5730\u533a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5229\u76ca\u9020\u6210\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-prospects-for-european-strategic-autonomy\"><strong>\u6b27\u6d32\u6218\u7565\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u524d\u666f<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u90e8\u5206\u64a4\u51fa\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u82e5\u8fd9\u4e00\u60c5\u666f\u771f\u7684\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u8c01\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u586b\u8865\u7531\u6b64\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u7a7a\u7f3a\uff0c\u53c8\u80fd\u586b\u8865\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9a7b\u6b27\u5b58\u5728\u7f29\u51cf\u5e76\u975e\u4f1a\u4ee4\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u906d\u53d7\u6218\u7565\u635f\u5931\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u770b\u6765\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u5f25\u8865\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u501f\u6b64\u52a0\u5f3a\u81ea\u8eab\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5e76\u6269\u5927\u6218\u7565\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u5177\u5907\u6240\u9700\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u4eba\u529b\u6f5c\u529b\u3001\u6280\u672f\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u5b9e\u65bd\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u613f\u548c\u957f\u8fdc\u89c4\u5212\u89c6\u91ce\u3002\u67cf\u6797\u4f9d\u6258\u5177\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u8d22\u653f\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4e13\u6b3e\u4e13\u7528\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u591a\u5e74\u671f\u91c7\u8d2d\u5408\u540c\uff0c\u5e76\u534f\u8c03\u5404\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u56f4\u7ed5\u80fd\u529b\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u5f00\u5c55\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/berlin-simplify-rules-bid-speed-up-defence-surge-draft-law-says-2025-06-27\/\">\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/berlin-simplify-rules-bid-speed-up-defence-surge-draft-law-says-2025-06-27\/\">2030\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1048\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-4.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Strategic Retreat? Assessing the Implications of a U.S. Withdrawal from European Security\" class=\"wp-image-32935\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-4.png 1048w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-4-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-4-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-4-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-4-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1048px) 100vw, 1048px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>2024\u5e744\u670824\u65e5\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u9996\u76f8\u8bbf\u95ee\u5fb7\u56fd\u9996\u90fd\u67cf\u6797\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u58eb\u5175\u7ad9\u5728\u6731\u5229\u4e4c\u65af\u00b7\u83b1\u4f2f\u5175\u8425\u4e00\u8f86\u65b0\u578b Boxer \u88c5\u7532\u8fd0\u5175\u8f66\u524d\u3002\uff08\u56fe\u7247\uff1aHENRY NICHOLLS \/ POOL \/ AFP\uff09<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b89\u6392\u4f7f\u5fb7\u56fd\u80fd\u591f\u7acb\u5373\u627f\u8bfa\u63a8\u8fdb\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4f9d\u6b21\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u5927\u578b\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5efa\u8bbe\u5206\u5c42\u9632\u7a7a\u548c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/raytheon-wins-12-bln-contract-additional-patriot-air-missile-defense-systems-2024-07-11\/\">\u5bfc\u5f39\u9632\u5fa1<\/a>\u3001 <a href=\"https:\/\/breakingdefense.com\/2024\/06\/rheinmetall-announces-155mm-ammunition-mega-order-from-germany\/#:~:text=BELFAST%20%E2%80%94%20German%20manufacturer%20Rheinmetall%20received,Ukrainian%20and%20other%20allies'%20stocks.\">\u6301\u7eed\u6269\u5927\u5f39\u836f\u4ea7\u80fd<\/a>\u3001\u6574\u5408 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.airbus.com\/en\/newsroom\/stories\/2024-03-eurofighternextgen-taking-the-eurofighter-to-the-next-level\">\u65b0\u578b\u6218\u6597\u673a<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/knds.com\/en\/press-releases\/bundeswehr-orders-18-new-leopard-2-a8-battle-tanks-and-triggers-the-option-for-twelve-new-pzh-2000\">\u66f4\u65b0\u91cd\u578b\u5730\u9762\u90e8\u961f<\/a>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u662f <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/lithuania-begins-construction-base-german-troops-near-russian-border-2024-08-19\/\">\u524d\u6cbf\u90e8\u7f72\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the arrival of a new leadership headed by Friedrich Merz, Germany has significantly changed its military-political course, declaring its intention to become one of NATO&#8217;s mainstays on the European continent. As part of this strategy, Berlin plans to increase its military budget from the current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/germany-raise-defence-spending-35-gdp-by-2029-sources-say-2025-06-23\/\">GDP\u76842.4%\uff08\u7ea6950\u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\uff09\u63d0\u9ad8\u52302029\u5e74\u76843.5%\uff08\u7ea61620\u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\uff09<\/a>\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u5fb7\u56fd\u53f2\u4e0a\u89c4\u6a21\u6700\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u6269\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another key contender for regional leadership alongside Germany is France, which has historically held a strong position in the European security architecture. In recent years, France has consistently contributed around 10% of NATO&#8217;s total budget, making it one of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/uk\/natohq\/topics_67655.htm?selectedLocale=en\">Alliance&#8217;s main financial and military donors<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6cd5\u56fd\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u5730\u4f4d\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5176\u72ec\u7acb\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u51ed\u501f\u7ea6 <a href=\"https:\/\/armscontrolcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/France.pdf\">290\u679a\u6838\u5f39\u5934<\/a> \uff08\u90e8\u7f72\u4e8e\u6f5c\u8247\u548c\u6218\u6597\u673a\uff09\uff0c\u5df4\u9ece\u4fdd\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e13\u5c5e\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5411\u6b27\u6d32\u4f19\u4f34\u53d1\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u9650\u6838\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5e94\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u53ef\u80fd\u524a\u5f31\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5176\u6838\u6b66\u5e93\u5c0f\u4e8e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u6301\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7ef4\u62a4\u4e86\u5a01\u6151\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u6cd5\u56fd\u5728\u8d1f\u62c5\u5206\u644a\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u82f1\u56fd\u62e5\u6709 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.geostrategy.org.uk\/research\/why-britain-needs-a-larger-navy\/\">\u5317\u7ea6\u4e2d\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6d77\u519b<\/a> \uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\uff1b\u82f1\u56fd\u4e5f\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u5b89\u5168\u67b6\u6784\u6f5c\u5728\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ade\u4e89\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4f26\u6566\u5df2\u6b63\u5f0f\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u5c06\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f3 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/official_texts_236705.htm\">GDP\u76845%\uff08\u52302035\u5e74\uff09<\/a>, as has France, which should significantly strengthen its military capabilities and expand its presence in key strategic regions, including the North Atlantic and High North, the GIUK Gap, the Baltic and North Seas, the Mediterranean and Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, and the wider Indo-Pacific, particularly the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. The UK&#8217;s status as a nuclear power remains an equally important factor: the country has approximately <a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/cbp-9077\/#:~:text=Nuclear%20stockpile%20%E2%80%93%20Prior%20to%20the,no%20more%20than%20260%20warheads.\">225\u679a\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u3002<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u610f\u5927\u5229\u5df2\u5c55\u73b0\u96c4\u5fc3\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u5c06\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u4ece <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/italy-says-meet-natos-2-gdp-defence-spending-goal-this-year-2025-04-17\/\">GDP\u76841.49%\uff08\u7ea6350\u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\uff09\u63d0\u9ad8\u52302025\u5e74\u76842%\uff08468\u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u57282035\u5e74\u524d\u63d0\u9ad8\u52305%\uff081170\u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\uff09<\/a>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u4ea7\u4e1a\u6df1\u5ea6\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u91cf\u4ecd\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd1\u671f\u5185\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u5b89\u5168\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u652f\u67f1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u76df\u56fd\u5df2\u540c\u610f\u63d0\u9ad8\u9632\u52a1\u5f00\u652f\uff0c <strong>\u8fdb\u5c55\u4e0d\u5747<\/strong> \u5c06\u4f5c\u4e3a\u96c6\u4f53\u5b89\u5168\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6311\u6218\u8054\u76df\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u3002\u9762\u4e34\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u76f4\u63a5\u538b\u529b\u7684\u524d\u7ebf\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u65e9\u8fbe\u52305%\u57fa\u51c6\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u4f1a\u843d\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5dee\u5f02\u5316\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u9650\u5236\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5267\u8d1f\u62c5\u5206\u644a\u4e89\u7aef\uff0c\u5c06\u90e8\u961f\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u9a7b\u519b\u95ee\u9898\u590d\u6742\u5316\u4e3a\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u52a8\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u53d1\u56f4\u7ed5\u91c7\u8d2d\u548c\u4ea7\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e89\u8bae\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u6001\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u653f\u6cbb\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-prospective-european-leadership-framework\"><strong>\u6b27\u6d32\u672a\u6765\u9886\u5bfc\u6846\u67b6<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u5b8c\u5168\u5f25\u8865\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b58\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5f31\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u7ec4\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u5173\u5fc3\u7ef4\u62a4\u5730\u533a\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0e\u9632\u5fa1\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u76df\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8be5\u8054\u76df\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u76f4\u63a5\u9762\u4e34\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u4e1c\u6b27\u548c\u6ce2\u7f57\u7684\u6d77\u56fd\u5bb6\u8865\u5145\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u6700\u6709\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f1a\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u5b89\u5168\u5021\u8bae\uff0c\u5e26\u5934\u5efa\u7acb\u65b0\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5317\u7ea6\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u79ef\u6781\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u6e38\u8bf4\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u9646\u897f\u90e8\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u53d1\u6325\u652f\u6301\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d22\u653f\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5177\u6709\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7d27\u8feb\u611f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u540c\u6837\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\u4f5c\u6218\u89c4\u5212\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u5de5\u5c06\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u5e73\u8861\uff1a\u201c\u4e09\u5927\u56fd\u201d\u548c\u524d\u7ebf\u56fd\u5bb6\u63a8\u52a8\u8bae\u7a0b\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u4ece\u540e\u65b9\u4e88\u4ee5\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u786e\u4fdd\u6b27\u6d32\u6574\u4f53\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b58\u5728\u7f29\u51cf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4fdd\u6301\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u5236\u8861\u4e3a\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5b89\u5168\u4e8b\u52a1\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u6280\u672f\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u201c\u4e09\u5927\u56fd\u201d\uff08\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\uff09\u5c06\u53d1\u6325\u6218\u7565\u9886\u5bfc\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6848\u5b58\u5728\u82e5\u5e72\u6f5c\u5728\u95ee\u9898\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u56e0\u5bf9\u5a01\u80c1\u3001\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5185\u90e8\u88c2\u75d5\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5728\u9884\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\u6709\u9650\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7d27\u5f20\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Third, the absence of a single leader, such as the US, may complicate operational decision-making in crisis situations, weakening Europe&#8217;s overall strategic effectiveness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u7f29\u51cf\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u524a\u5f31\u5bf9\u4fc4\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5a01\u6151\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u5317\u7ea6\u4e1c\u90e8\u8fb9\u754c\u5c40\u52bf\u5931\u7a33\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u201c\u4e09\u5927\u56fd\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u52a9\u624b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u62b5\u6297\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u7ecf\u9a8c\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u4f9b\u73b0\u4ee3\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u97e7\u6027\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u77e5\u8bc6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f3a\u5316\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u5b89\u5168\u67b6\u6784\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u8c61\u5f81\u6027\u4f19\u4f34\uff1a\u5b83\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u5b9e\u8df5\u5bfc\u5e08\uff0c\u5176\u7ecf\u6218\u573a\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5c06\u76f4\u63a5\u589e\u5f3a\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u5347\u6574\u4e2a\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6218\u7565\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u770b\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u9002\u5e94\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7f29\u51cf\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5404\u56fd\u96c4\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5317\u7ea6\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u4e24\u8005\u534f\u8c03\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\u4e0e\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6218\u7565\u97e7\u6027\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6027\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u8d56\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u5408\u4f5c\u2014\u2014\u901a\u8fc7\u8054\u5408\u9632\u52a1\u91c7\u8d2d\u3001\u4e92\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-conclusion\"><strong>\u7ed3\u8bed<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering all factors, a partial withdrawal of US troops from Europe is probable. The priority is shifting to the Indo-Pacific region due to China&#8217;s growing power and the risk of a crisis around Taiwan. Resources are limited by the budget, personnel shortages, and the burden on the defense industry, which requires long-term contracts and capacity expansion. At the same time, the US still needs extended nuclear deterrence, space and cyber capabilities, early warning, and maritime communications security in Europe, so it&#8217;s more about calibrating its presence than abandoning its alliance commitments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5206\u9636\u6bb5\u524a\u51cf\u5e38\u9a7b\u90e8\u961f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u589e\u52a0\u8f6e\u6362\u5e76\u66f4\u591a\u4f9d\u9760\u9884\u7f6e\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u5b89\u5168\u8d1f\u62c5\u5c06\u8f6c\u79fb\u7ed9\u201c\u4e09\u5927\u56fd\u201d\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u5c06\u627f\u62c5\u6d77\u4e0a\u548c\u6c34\u4e0b\u4f5c\u6218\u3001\u901a\u8fc7\u822a\u6bcd\u6218\u6597\u7fa4\u6295\u5c04\u529b\u91cf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u7535\u5b50\u6218\u7b49\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u9ed1\u6d77\u548c\u5317\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u5c06\u63d0\u4f9b\u72ec\u7acb\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u3001\u8fdc\u5f81\u884c\u52a8\u6218\u5907\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u7a7a\u4e2d\u6253\u51fb\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u4e2d\u7a0b\u9632\u7a7a\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u5c06\u8d1f\u8d23\u91cd\u578b\u5730\u9762\u90e8\u961f\u3001\u540e\u52e4\u3001\u7ef4\u4fee\u548c\u5f39\u836f\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e2d\u6b27\u90e8\u7f72\u5206\u5c42\u9632\u7a7a\u548c\u53cd\u5bfc\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5176\u4f59\u76df\u53cb\u5c06\u5728\u53cd\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u3001\u8fd1\u7a0b\u9632\u7a7a\u3001\u626b\u96f7\u548c\u53cd\u6f5c\u6218\u9886\u57df\u627f\u62c5\u4e13\u95e8\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u5fc5\u987b\u8fc5\u901f\u586b\u8865\u7684\u5173\u952e\u7f3a\u53e3\u5305\u62ec\u6218\u7565\u7a7a\u8fd0\u548c\u7a7a\u4e2d\u52a0\u6cb9\u3001ISR\u3001\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u9632\u7a7a\/\u53cd\u5bfc\u3001\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5f39\u836f\u5e93\u5b58\u548c MRO \u80fd\u529b\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u4fdd\u7559 C4ISR \u6846\u67b6\u3001\u6838\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e\u548c\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u63f4\u6218\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the end, the question of how quick and deep the cuts will be is still up in the air. It is difficult to predict specific steps: the choice between symbolic cuts and more noticeable reductions will depend on developments in the Indo-Pacific region, Russia&#8217;s behavior, the willingness of Europeans to increase spending, and restrictions imposed by Congress, basic agreements, and NATO plans. The logic of the moment suggests evolution rather than a sharp break, with the US reducing its \u201cheavy footprint\u201d but retaining strategic functions, and Europe translating its ambitions into measurable combat readiness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3001\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u610f\u89c1\u4ec5\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c\u8005\u672c\u4eba\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4ee3\u8868\u8de8\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u5176\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6216\u5176\u9644\u5c5e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u65e8\u5728\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e0e\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u8de8\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6216\u4f5c\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u5173\u8054\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>\u672c\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\u7f16\u5199\u3002\u5176\u5185\u5bb9\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u4f5c\u8005\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7136\u53cd\u6620\u56fd\u9645\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways The reorientation of U.S. strategic priorities toward the Indo-Pacific has reshaped Washington\u2019s approach to Europe. As competition with China intensifies, a gradual recalibration of American military presence and commitments on the European continent becomes increasingly likely. This shift raises questions not only about the future of NATO\u2019s deterrence architecture but also about Europe\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":32936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,56,58],"tags":[],"topic":[88,93,96,110,87,95],"class_list":["post-32929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-eng-north-america","category-eng-western-europe","topic-defense","topic-geopolitics","topic-germany","topic-nato","topic-security","topic-usa"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>A U.S. Retreat From European Security? | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A U.S. pivot toward the Indo-Pacific could reshape NATO, test Europe\u2019s defence autonomy and expose gaps in transatlantic deterrence.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/zh\/2025\/10\/30\/strategic-retreat-assessing-the-implications-of-a-u-s-withdrawal-from-european-security\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A U.S. Retreat From European Security?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A U.S. pivot toward the Indo-Pacific could reshape NATO, test Europe\u2019s defence autonomy and expose gaps in transatlantic deterrence.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/zh\/2025\/10\/30\/strategic-retreat-assessing-the-implications-of-a-u-s-withdrawal-from-european-security\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Transatlantic-Dialogue-Center-105645698740463\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-30T11:44:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-04T09:01:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Estados-Unidos-ocultaria-informacion-sobre-Afganistan.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Daryna Sydorenko\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"A U.S. Retreat From European Security?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"A U.S. pivot toward the Indo-Pacific could reshape NATO, test Europe\u2019s defence autonomy and expose gaps in transatlantic deterrence.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Daryna Sydorenko\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/10\/30\/strategic-retreat-assessing-the-implications-of-a-u-s-withdrawal-from-european-security\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/10\/30\/strategic-retreat-assessing-the-implications-of-a-u-s-withdrawal-from-european-security\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daryna Sydorenko\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/#\/schema\/person\/98e2f5bb6c890bd0e4fb5c6144121453\"},\"headline\":\"Strategic Retreat? 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