{"id":28948,"date":"2025-04-17T10:19:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T07:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=28948"},"modified":"2025-11-05T11:46:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T09:46:18","slug":"a-market-in-decline-why-business-as-usual-no-longer-works-with-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/zh\/2025\/04\/17\/a-market-in-decline-why-business-as-usual-no-longer-works-with-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e02\u573a\u8870\u9000\uff1a\u4e3a\u4f55\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u201c\u7167\u5e38\u8425\u4e1a\u201d\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53ef\u884c"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\"><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" 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class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-geopolitical-risks-and-the-weight-of-sanctions\">\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u5236\u88c1\u538b\u529b<\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"983\" height=\"419\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28951\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-8.png 983w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-8-600x256.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-8-768x327.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-8-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 983px) 100vw, 983px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>\u56fe 1 \u548c\u56fe 2\u3002<\/em><\/strong><em> \u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5236\u88c1\u4eea\u8868\u677f\u3002\u4f7f\u7528 Datawrapper \u5236\u4f5c\u3002\u6765\u6e90\uff1aCastellum.AI<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sanctions imposed on Russia have created one of the most restrictive economic environments in modern history. To date, Western nations have implemented over 24,300 individual and entity sanctions, making Russia the most sanctioned country globally &#8211; surpassing Iran, Syria, North Korea, Belarus, Venezuela and Myanmar combined (14,199). The European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, and allied nations have targeted key sectors, including finance, energy, technology, and defense, severely limiting Russia\u2019s ability to engage in international trade.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"930\" height=\"479\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28953\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-10.png 930w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-10-600x309.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-10-768x396.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-10-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 930px) 100vw, 930px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>\u56fe 3 \u548c\u56fe 4\u3002&nbsp; 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5236\u88c1\u4e5f\u4f7f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ea7\u4e1a\u9677\u4e8e\u762b\u75ea\u3002\u8be5\u56fd\u5df2\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u5173\u952e\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u8bbe\u5907\u548c\u822a\u7a7a\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u4f01\u4e1a\u4f9d\u8d56\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u4f4e\u8d28\u91cf\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002\u77f3\u6cb9\u6536\u5165\u7ea6\u5360\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9884\u7b97\u7684 40%\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u906d\u53d7\u91cd\u521b\uff1b\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u9650\u548c\u7981\u8fd0\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u9879\u76ee\u8f6c\u5411\u519b\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u968f\u7740\u903e 1,500 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id=\"h-the-russian-government-s-hostile-business-climate\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u8425\u9020\u7684\u6076\u52a3\u8425\u5546\u73af\u5883<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u968f\u7740\u897f\u65b9\u5236\u88c1\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u64a4\u79bb\u91cd\u5851\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u4ee5\u5bf9\u5916\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u6108\u53d1\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4f5c\u51fa\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u4e14\u5145\u6ee1\u654c\u610f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u73af\u5883\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2023 \u5e74\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65b0\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u4fdd\u62a4\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u9700\u8981\u4e3a\u7531\u52a0\u4ee5\u6b63\u5f53\u5316\u3002\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u65b0\u51fa\u53f0\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7acb\u6cd5\u8d4b\u4e88\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u6ca1\u6536\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u201c\u975e\u53cb\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff08\u81f3\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4f55\u88ab\u5217\u5165\u8be5\u6e05\u5355\uff0c\u5e76\u65e0\u4efb\u4f55\u660e\u786e\u6216\u5408\u4e4e\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8be5\u7acb\u6cd5\u8fd8\u7981\u6b62\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u975e\u53cb\u597d\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u6709\u5173\u8054\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u71c3\u6599\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\u95e8\u652f\u4ed8\u80a1\u606f\u3001\u8f6c\u79fb\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u51fa\u552e\u6743\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5f3a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e72\u9884\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e8e\u76f4\u63a5\u5f81\u6536\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5f53\u5c40\u5df2\u5b9e\u65bd\u5f3a\u5236\u56fd\u6709\u5316\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff0c\u4f7f\u897f\u65b9\u4f01\u4e1a\u82e5\u672a\u7ecf\u653f\u5e9c\u6279\u51c6\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u51fa\u552e\u4e1a\u52a1\u6216\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u5265\u79bb\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u4e94\u6298\u51fa\u552e\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u56fd\u5bb6\u7f34\u7eb3\u81f3\u5c11\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u552e\u4ef7 10% \u7684\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\u201c\u9000\u51fa\u7a0e\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4ee4\u4f01\u4e1a\u9677\u5165\u4e24\u96be\uff1a\u7559\u4e0b\u5219\u9762\u4e34\u88ab\u5f81\u6536\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u9000\u51fa\u5219\u627f\u53d7\u5de8\u989d\u8d22\u52a1\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5907\u53d7\u77a9\u76ee\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u653f\u5e9c\u63a5\u7ba1\u5609\u58eb\u4f2f\u7684\u6ce2\u7f57\u7684\u6d77\u5564\u9152\u5382\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6ca1\u6536\u8fbe\u80fd\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5b50\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u613f\u610f\u5728\u672a\u7ecf\u6b63\u5f53\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5f81\u6536\u5916\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u8fbe\u80fd\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff08Danone Rossiya\uff09\u662f\u6cd5\u56fd\u8fbe\u80fd\u7684\u5b50\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e73\u5236\u54c1\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u3002\u8fbe\u80fd\u6b64\u524d\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u8425 13 \u5bb6\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u96c7\u7528\u903e 100,000 \u540d\u5458\u5de5\u3002\u8fd9\u6e05\u695a\u8868\u660e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u62b1\u6301\u654c\u610f\uff1b\u81ea 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5df2\u4e3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5e26\u6765\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"787\" height=\"555\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28955\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-12.png 787w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-12-600x423.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-12-768x542.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-12-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 787px) 100vw, 787px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>\u56fe 5\u3002 <\/em><\/strong><em>\u5df2\u7f29\u51cf\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u540d\u5355\u3002\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u88ab\u653f\u5e9c\u5f81\u6536\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u4f01\u4e1a\u5982\u4eca\u7531\u666e\u4eac\u7684\u4eb2\u4fe1\u63a7\u5236\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u5b98\u65b9\u540d\u4e49\u4e0a\u4ecd\u5c5e\u79c1\u6709\uff0c\u4f46\u5229\u6da6\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5206\u4eab\u3002\u8fbe\u80fd\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u76ee\u524d\u7531\u8f66\u81e3\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u62c9\u59c6\u8d5e\u00b7\u5361\u5fb7\u7f57\u592b\u7684\u4e00\u540d\u4eb2\u5bc6\u5173\u8054\u4eba\u58eb\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u666e\u4eac\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u670b\u53cb\u6cf0\u7a46\u62c9\u5179\u00b7\u535a\u6d1b\u8036\u592b\u73b0\u8d1f\u8d23\u76d1\u7763\u5609\u58eb\u4f2f\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u3002\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\uff0c\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u5229\u7528\u5916\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u6765\u7ef4\u7cfb\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5be1\u5934\u5bf9\u8be5\u653f\u6743\u548c\u666e\u4eac\u672c\u4eba\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4e3b\u5f20\u4ece\u897f\u65b9\u51bb\u7ed3\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u8d54\u507f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5df2\u53d1\u73b0 200 \u9879\u5c06\u5916\u56fd\u8d22\u4ea7\u56fd\u6709\u5316\u7684\u6cd5\u9662\u88c1\u51b3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u88c1\u51b3\u5927\u591a\u4ee5\u5916\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u6240\u6709\u8005\u5c5e\u4e8e\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u201c\u975e\u53cb\u597d\u201d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u7531\u52a0\u4ee5\u6b63\u5f53\u5316\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c1a\u672a\u5236\u5b9a\u660e\u786e\u6807\u51c6\u4ee5\u5224\u5b9a\u54ea\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u9762\u4e34\u56fd\u6709\u5316\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ee4\u5176\u897f\u65b9\u6240\u6709\u8005\u66f4\u52a0\u65e0\u6240\u9002\u4ece\u3002\u5f80\u5f80\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5883\u5185\u662f\u5426\u6709\u4e00\u540d\u88ab\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u8ba4\u5b9a\u5408\u9002\u7684\u610f\u5411\u4e70\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5bf9\u4e8e\u613f\u610f\u79bb\u5f00\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u968f\u4e4b\u51fa\u73b0\uff1a\u5f88\u96be\u627e\u5230\u201c\u5e72\u51c0\u201d\u4e14\u672a\u53d7\u5236\u88c1\u7684\u4e70\u5bb6\u3002\u672a\u53d7\u5230\u897f\u65b9\u5236\u88c1\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u62e5\u6709\u5145\u8db3\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u8981\u4e48\u81ea\u8eab\u5df2\u53d7\u5236\u88c1\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u53d7\u5236\u88c1\u653f\u7b56\u9488\u5bf9\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u7684\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u65e5\u76ca\u4f9d\u8d56\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u652f\u4ed8\u4ee5\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b63\u9010\u6b65\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5316\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u9694\u7edd\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u4e0e\u5305\u62ec\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u3001\u4e2d\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7b49\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u5269\u4f59\u4f19\u4f34\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u878d\u5408\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u5df2\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ea4\u6613\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u590d\u6742\u5316\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5236\u88c1\u8fd8\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u8fdb\u53e3\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5c31\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u4e3e\u884c\u4f1a\u8c08\uff0c\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u8d77\u8349\u8ba9\u897f\u65b9\u4f01\u4e1a\u91cd\u8fd4\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f81\u6536\u6848\u4f8b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba FDI \u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u591a\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u6beb\u4e0d\u72b9\u8c6b\u5730\u5c06\u5916\u8d44\u8d44\u4ea7\u56fd\u6709\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u7981\u6b62\u5176\u64a4\u51fa\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5e02\u573a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-economic-decline-and-market-instability\">\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">\u5e73\u58e4\u4ece\u4e0e\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u7684\u8054\u76df\u4e2d\u5927\u5e45\u83b7\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u5c31\u76ee\u524d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5411\u524d\u7ebf\u90e8\u7f72\u90e8\u961f\u5bf9\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u7684\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6570\u5343\u6761\u751f\u547d\u7684\u4ea4\u6362\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6b64\u524d\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u6280\u672f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u6d41\u6c13\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u80fd\u591f\u5411\u5176\u5728\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u654c\u624b\u65bd\u538b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u97e9\u56fd\uff1b\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6765\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u4e0e\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5df2\u6025\u5267\u6076\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">\u968f\u7740\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5730\u533a\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u5e73\u58e4\u5bf9\u6b64\u5e76\u975e\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u53c2\u4e0e\uff09\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u6709\u610f\u52a0\u5f3a\u519b\u529b\uff0c\u4e3a\u6f5c\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u5411\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6d3e\u5175\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u8ba9\u58eb\u5175\u83b7\u5f97\u73b0\u4ee3\u6218\u4e89\u4ee5\u53ca\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u3001\u65b0\u6b66\u5668\u5b9e\u6218\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u7edd\u4f73\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u5171\u540c\u9632\u5fa1\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u5728\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u65f6\u8bf7\u6c42\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u652f\u63f4\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0b\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u5c06\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u63a8\u8fdb\u6838\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u5728\u5730\u533a\u5c42\u9762\u66f4\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table aligncenter\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u6307\u6807 \/ \u5e74\u4efd<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2013<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2014<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2015<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2017<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2018<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2019<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2020<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2021<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2022<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2023<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2024<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2025\u5e743\u6708<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u540d\u4e49 GDP<\/strong> <strong>\uff08\u4e07\u4ebf\u5362\u5e03\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>73<\/td><td>79<\/td><td>83.1<\/td><td>85.6<\/td><td>91.8<\/td><td>103.9<\/td><td>109.6<\/td><td>107.7<\/td><td>134.7<\/td><td>156.9<\/td><td>176.4<\/td><td>200<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u540d\u4e49 GDP&nbsp;<\/strong> <strong>\uff08\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>2288<\/td><td>2047<\/td><td>1355<\/td><td>1281<\/td><td>1575<\/td><td>1651<\/td><td>1696<\/td><td>1486<\/td><td>1829<\/td><td>2296<\/td><td>2056<\/td><td>2159<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>GDP \u589e\u957f\u7387\uff08%\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>-10,53%<\/td><td>-33,81%<\/td><td>-5,46%<\/td><td>22,95%<\/td><td>4,83%<\/td><td>2,73%<\/td><td>-12,38%<\/td><td>23,08%<\/td><td>25,53%<\/td><td>-10,45%<\/td><td>5,01%<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u4eba\u5747 GDP\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>15.9<\/td><td>14.0<\/td><td>9.2<\/td><td>8.7<\/td><td>10.7<\/td><td>11.2<\/td><td>11.5<\/td><td>10.1<\/td><td>12.4<\/td><td>15.6<\/td><td>14.1<\/td><td>14.8<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff08\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff0c%\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>6.47<\/td><td>11.35<\/td><td>11<\/td><td>5.4<\/td><td>2.5<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>4<\/td><td>8.39<\/td><td>11.94<\/td><td>7.42<\/td><td>9.52<\/td><td>9.92<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1&nbsp;<\/strong> <strong>\uff08\u5341\u4ebf\u5362\u5e03\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>728,864<\/td><td>599,901<\/td><td>518,489<\/td><td>511,752<\/td><td>518,445<\/td><td>455,073<\/td><td>491,452<\/td><td>467,605<\/td><td>488,415<\/td><td>385,081<\/td><td>317,893<\/td><td>290,400<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57<\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;\uff08\u5360 GDP \u7684 %\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>0,50%<\/td><td>-0,70%<\/td><td>-2,60%<\/td><td>-3,40%<\/td><td>-1,50%<\/td><td>2,60%<\/td><td>1,80%<\/td><td>-3,80%<\/td><td>0,40%<\/td><td>-2,30%<\/td><td>-2%<\/td><td>-1,70%<\/td><td>-0,50%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u6307\u6807 \/ \u5e74\u4efd<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2013<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2014<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2015<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2017<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2018<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2019<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2020<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2021<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2022<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2023<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2024<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2025\u5e743\u6708<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57&nbsp;<\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;\uff08\u4e07\u4ebf\u5362\u5e03\uff09 <\/strong><\/td><td>0,32<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-0,5<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-1,95<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-2,97<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-1,33<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>2,74<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>1,96<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-4,1<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>0,52<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-3,35<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-3,3<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>-3,49<strong><\/strong><\/td><td>1,7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387<\/strong><\/td><td>5.5<\/td><td>17<\/td><td>11<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8.25<\/td><td>7.75<\/td><td>6.25<\/td><td>4.25<\/td><td>7.5<\/td><td>7.5<\/td><td>16<\/td><td>21<\/td><td>21<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u6c47\u7387\uff08RUB\/USD\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>31.8<\/td><td>38,5<\/td><td>61,00<\/td><td>67,00<\/td><td>58,30<\/td><td>62,74<\/td><td>64,72<\/td><td>72,18<\/td><td>73,66<\/td><td>68,54<\/td><td>85,30<\/td><td>92,62<\/td><td>87,15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\uff08\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>509<\/td><td>385<\/td><td>368<\/td><td>378<\/td><td>433<\/td><td>468<\/td><td>554<\/td><td>583<\/td><td>631<\/td><td>582<\/td><td>599<\/td><td>609<\/td><td>632<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u56fd\u6c11\u8d22\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u4e07\u4ebf\u5362\u5e03\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>2.36<\/td><td>6.14<\/td><td>8.66<\/td><td>8.43<\/td><td>6.13<\/td><td>05.01<\/td><td>3.39<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff08%\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>5.2<\/td><td>5.5<\/td><td>5.8<\/td><td>5.3<\/td><td>5.1<\/td><td>4.8<\/td><td>4.6<\/td><td>5.9<\/td><td>4.3<\/td><td>3.7<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>2.3<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\uff08\u6bcf\u6708\u5343\u5362\u5e03<\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;\uff09<\/strong><\/td><td>5.2<\/td><td>5.5<\/td><td>5.9<\/td><td>6.2<\/td><td>7.5<\/td><td>9.5<\/td><td>11.3<\/td><td>12.1<\/td><td>12.8<\/td><td>13.9<\/td><td>16.2<\/td><td>19.2<\/td><td>22.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44<\/strong><\/td><td>163.52<\/td><td>142,86<\/td><td>96,72<\/td><td>92,54<\/td><td>128,64<\/td><td>151,42<\/td><td>174,61<\/td><td>167,64<\/td><td>173,78<\/td><td>202,81<\/td><td>189,92<\/td><td>207,29<\/td><td>257,03<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\u660e<\/strong><\/em><strong>:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8be5\u8868\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86 2013 \u5e74\u81f3 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86 GDP\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u6c47\u7387\u3001\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u5236\u88c1\u3001\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u4ee5\u53ca\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5411\u519b\u4e8b\u5316\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u7684 GDP \u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u4ece 2013 \u5e74\u7684 2.28 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u964d\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u7684 1.35 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b\u800c\u5362\u5e03\u8d2c\u503c\uff08\u4ece\u6bcf\u7f8e\u5143 31.8 \u5362\u5e03\u8d2c\u81f3 92.6 \u5362\u5e03\uff09\u8868\u660e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u7eed\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u4eba\u4e3a\u538b\u4f4e\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5f81\u5175\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f15\u5bfc\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u76f8\u5173\u884c\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u519b\u4e8b\u751f\u4ea7\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\uff1b\u8fd9\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u4e5f\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u77ed\u7f3a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u548c\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u51f8\u663e\u957f\u671f\u8d22\u653f\u538b\u529b\uff1b2024 \u5e74\u5229\u7387\u88ab\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3 21%\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e3a\u7a33\u5b9a\u8d27\u5e01\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea 2014 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u5411\u6df1\u53d7\u5236\u88c1\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u519b\u4e8b\u5f00\u652f\u4f18\u5148\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u541e\u5e76\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u540e\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u7684 GDP \u4ece 2013 \u5e74\u7684 2.28 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u9aa4\u964d\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u7684 1.35 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff08-33.8 %\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u897f\u65b9\u91d1\u878d\u9650\u5236\u548c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728 2010 \u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u671f\u90e8\u5206\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u4f46 2022 \u5e74\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u5168\u9762\u5165\u4fb5\u89e6\u53d1\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u66f4\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u5236\u88c1\uff0c\u4f7f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u9694\u7edd\uff0c\u5e76\u9650\u5236\u5176\u83b7\u5f97\u5173\u952e\u6280\u672f\u30022023 \u5e74\uff0cGDP \u53c8\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 10.45%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u6709\u5173\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u626d\u66f2\u3001\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u9003\u4ee5\u53ca\u83b7\u53d6\u897f\u65b9\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u53d7\u9650\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4ecd\u5728\u51fa\u53e3\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\uff0c\u5362\u5e03\u4ece 2013 \u5e74\u7684\u6bcf\u7f8e\u5143 31.8 \u5362\u5e03\u8d2c\u81f3 2024 \u5e74\u7684 92.6 \u5362\u5e03\uff0c\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u4e0d\u65ad\u52a0\u5927\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ef4\u6301\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5316\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5927\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u548c\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u5747\u7531\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u76f8\u5173\u652f\u51fa\u6240\u9a71\u52a8\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u52aa\u529b\u63a7\u5236\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u4ecd\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c2022 \u5e74\u8fbe\u5230 GDP \u7684 -3.4%\uff0c2023 \u5e74\u8fbe\u5230 -2%\u3002\u5236\u88c1\u6270\u4e71\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5e76\u8feb\u4f7f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdb\u884c\u4ee3\u4ef7\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4 2022 \u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u98d9\u5347\u81f3 11.94%\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u4ee5\u6fc0\u8fdb\u52a0\u606f\uff082024 \u5e74\u4e3a 21%\uff09\u4f5c\u51fa\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u610f\u5728\u6291\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u5e76\u7a33\u5b9a\u5362\u5e03\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4f7f\u957f\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6108\u53d1\u4f9d\u8d56\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u56fd\u6c11\u8d22\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\uff08\u0424\u041d\u0411\uff09\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u90e8\u5206\u5df2\u4ece 2021 \u5e74\u7684 8.66 \u4e07\u4ebf\u5362\u5e03\u7f29\u51cf\u81f3 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u4ec5 3.39 \u4e07\u4ebf\u5362\u5e03\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5728\u7ef4\u6301\u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u4e3a\u6218\u4e89\u652f\u51fa\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c55\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5f31\u70b9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5176\u7ef4\u6301\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u5165\u897f\u65b9\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u83b7\u5f97\u897f\u65b9\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u591a\u5143\u5316\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u4e0d\u7ed3\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u51fa\u53e3\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1 2025 \u5e74\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u5df2\u589e\u81f3 22,400 \u5362\u5e03\uff08$257\uff09\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u5165\u4ecd\u53d7\u5230\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u4fb5\u8680\u3002\u5362\u5e03\u6301\u7eed\u75b2\u8f6f\u548c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u6ede\u80c0\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4ecd\u7136\u4e4f\u529b\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6218\u4e89\u65f7\u65e5\u6301\u4e45\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6108\u52a0\u5b64\u7acb\uff0c\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u6b63\u65e5\u76ca\u8f6c\u5411\u6307\u4ee4\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u727a\u7272\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3a\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f18\u5148\u53d1\u5c55\u519b\u4e8b\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-reputational-risks-and-the-cost-of-staying-leaving\">\u58f0\u8a89\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u7559\u4fc4\uff0f\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u6210\u672c<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5bf9\u8de8\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7559\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fd8\u662f\u9000\u51fa\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53ea\u662f\u5546\u4e1a\u8003\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u58f0\u8a89\u548c\u4f26\u7406\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u7ee7\u7eed\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u897f\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u65e5\u76ca\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u96c0\u5de2\u3001Leroy Merlin\u3001METRO \u7b49\u77e5\u540d\u54c1\u724c\u56e0\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u5e03\u5c40\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u547c\u5401\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u62b5\u5236\u548c\u80a1\u4e1c\u64a4\u8d44\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u65e5\u76ca\u53d7\u5230\u652f\u6301\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5df2\u9000\u51fa\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982 McDonald\u2019s<strong>, <\/strong>BP \u548c Ford\u2014\u2014\u5927\u591a\u4fdd\u4f4f\u4e86\u58f0\u8a89\uff0c\u5e76\u907f\u514d\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u5236\u88c1\u4ea7\u751f\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u8d22\u52a1\u7ea0\u845b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7559\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u5408\u89c4\u98ce\u9669\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u5e9c\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u4e8c\u7ea7\u5236\u88c1\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u519b\u4e8b\u751f\u4ea7\u76f8\u5173\u4f01\u4e1a\u6709\u4e1a\u52a1\u5f80\u6765\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ecd\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ef\u80fd\u5371\u53ca\u5176\u8fdb\u5165\u897f\u65b9\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u83b7\u5f97\u91d1\u878d\u670d\u52a1\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9075\u5b88\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6cd5\u89c4\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u5f3a\u5236\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u670d\u52a1\u5668\uff0c\u6216\u9075\u5b88\u5c06\u53cd\u6218\u8a00\u8bba\u5b9a\u7f6a\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u5f8b\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u897f\u65b9\u4eba\u6743\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u95ee\u8d23\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0b\u7684\u8bc9\u8bbc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c2024 \u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u5411\u53d7\u5236\u88c1\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\uff08FFIs\uff09\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u989d\u5916\u7684\u4e8c\u7ea7\u5236\u88c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c2025 \u5e74 1 \u6708\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e00\u5bb6\u6cd5\u9662\u88c1\u5b9a\u4ecd\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u6700\u5927\u897f\u65b9\u94f6\u884c\u2014\u2014\u5965\u5730\u5229\u83b1\u592b\u827e\u68ee\u56fd\u9645\u94f6\u884c\uff08RBI\uff09\u2014\u2014\u987b\u5c31\u5176 2024 \u5e74\u7f29\u51cf\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e1a\u52a1\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u652f\u4ed8\u8d85\u8fc7 21 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d54\u507f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cRBI \u62a5\u544a\u79f0\u5176\u5e74\u5ea6\u5229\u6da6\u4e5d\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u906d\u53d7\u4e25\u91cd\u58f0\u8a89\u635f\u5bb3\u7684\u83b1\u592b\u827e\u68ee\u94f6\u884c\u6b63\u8003\u8651\u51fa\u552e\u5176\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a8\u52a8\u9000\u51fa\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, the cost of leaving Russia can be significant, as the Kremlin has imposed punitive exit taxes, forced asset sales, and restrictions on capital repatriation. Some firms have had to sell their assets at a 90% discount, while others have seen their assets outright seized. Despite these financial losses, companies that have exited are increasingly viewed as making a strategic, long-term decision &#8211; avoiding entanglement in an unstable market while maintaining credibility in Western markets.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"722\" height=\"632\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28956\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13.png 722w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-600x525.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-13-14x12.png 14w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 722px) 100vw, 722px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>\u56fe 6\u3002 <\/em><\/strong><em>\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6765\u6e90\uff1aRecorded Future\uff0c\u7531 Insikt Group \u63d0\u4f9b<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-corporate-responsibility-and-the-role-of-ethical-business-practices\">\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d23\u4efb\u4e0e\u4f26\u7406\u5546\u4e1a\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally altered the global expectations of corporate responsibility, particularly for businesses operating in high-risk environments. Multinational corporations can no longer afford to remain neutral in conflicts where their economic activities directly or indirectly sustain an aggressor state. Companies that continue operations in Russia face increasing scrutiny from governments, investors, and civil society, as their tax contributions and economic presence provide financial and logistical support to a regime engaged in violations of international law. Compliance with sanctions alone is no longer sufficient &#8211; firms must assess their broader role in a war-driven economy, where their presence is seen as enabling the Kremlin\u2019s war effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">\u4f01\u4e1a\u793e\u4f1a\u8d23\u4efb\uff08CSR\uff09\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0e\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6301\u7eed\u8fd0\u8425\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u65e5\u76ca\u660e\u663e\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u516c\u5f00\u652f\u6301\u73af\u5883\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\uff08ESG\uff09\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5176\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u5374\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ef7\u503c\u76f8\u6096\u3002\u8036\u9c81\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u7814\u7a76\u6240 2023 \u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ecd\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u8de8\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d22\u653f\u8d21\u732e\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u95f4\u63a5\u8d44\u52a9\u519b\u4e8b\u5f00\u652f\u3002\u5305\u62ec\u300a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5de5\u5546\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u4eba\u6743\u6307\u5bfc\u539f\u5219\u300b<strong>\u53ca<\/strong>\u300a\u7ecf\u5408\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8de8\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u51c6\u5219\u300b\u5728\u5185\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6846\u67b6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e76\u975e\u76f4\u63a5\u5171\u8c0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u9884\u9632\u548c\u51cf\u8f7b\u4eba\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u968f\u7740\u76d1\u7ba1\u5ba1\u67e5\u8d8b\u4e25\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u8131\u79bb\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u58f0\u8a89\u635f\u5bb3\u3001\u6cd5\u5f8b\u8d23\u4efb\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u8fdb\u5165\u897f\u65b9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e8c\u7ea7\u5236\u88c1\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6218\u7565\u8f6c\u5411\u73b0\u5df2\u52bf\u5728\u5fc5\u884c\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u9000\u51fa\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u4f7f\u5546\u4e1a\u8fd0\u8425\u4e0e\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4e3b\u52a8\u8131\u79bb\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u5c06\u6295\u8d44\u91cd\u65b0\u914d\u7f6e\u81f3\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u66f4\u5408\u4e4e\u4f26\u7406\u73af\u5883\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u5c06\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5b9e\u73b0\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5c24\u5176\u4e3a\u91cd\u5efa\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u7ec4\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u6295\u8d44\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u5174\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u97e7\u6027\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d23\u4efb\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u5168\u7403\u6218\u7565\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5fc5\u987b\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u7559\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e0d\u518d\u4ec5\u662f\u8d22\u52a1\u8003\u91cf\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u5bf9\u5176\u4fe1\u8a89\u548c\u957f\u671f\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-conclusion\"><strong>\u7ed3\u8bed<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5f00\u5c55\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53ea\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8003\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u4f26\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5165\u4fb5\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u91cd\u5851\u4e86\u5546\u4e1a\u73af\u5883\uff1b\u5728\u5236\u88c1\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6210\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\u4e14\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u7559\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u9762\u4e34\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3001\u58f0\u8a89\u548c\u8d22\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5fc5\u987b\u5e94\u5bf9\u5373\u65f6\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u4fe1\u8a89\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u683c\u5c40\u91cd\u7ec4\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u6b63\u8f6c\u5411\u4ee5\u6cd5\u6cbb\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6b63\u6210\u4e3a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u76ee\u7684\u5730\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u91cd\u5efa\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u9886\u57df\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d23\u4efb\u6b63\u6210\u4e3a\u5546\u4e1a\u6218\u7565\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u671f\u671b\u4f01\u4e1a\u9075\u5faa\u4eba\u6743\u548c\u4f26\u7406\u6cbb\u7406\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u65e5\u76ca\u5b64\u7acb\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5fc5\u987b\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u201c\u7167\u5e38\u7ecf\u8425\u201d\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53ef\u884c\uff0c\u7559\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5927\u4e8e\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><strong><em>\u514d\u8d23\u58f0\u660e\uff1a\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u53d1\u5e03\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3001\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u610f\u89c1\u4ec5\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c\u8005\u672c\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4ee3\u8868\u8de8\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u5176\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6216\u5176\u5173\u8054\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u65e8\u5728\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e0e\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u8de8\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6216\u4f5c\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u5173\u8054\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>\u672c\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\u7f16\u5199\u3002\u5176\u5185\u5bb9\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u4f5c\u8005\u8d1f\u8d23\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7136\u53cd\u6620\u56fd\u9645\u590d\u5174\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped the global business environment, making it clear that business as usual no longer works in Russia. Once considered a strategic market, Russia has become a country where sanctions, state intervention, and economic instability have made long-term investment unsustainable. The war has forced businesses to rethink [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":28957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,13],"tags":[],"topic":[90,84,92],"class_list":["post-28948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eng-central-eastern-europe","category-en-analyses","topic-economy","topic-russia","topic-war"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Western Business Can No Longer Operate in Russia | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This analysis explains why sanctions, asset seizures and geopolitical risk have made Russia an increasingly untenable market for Western businesses.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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