Stepan Rusyn for Table.Briefings: Long-Term Western Support Could Change Moscow’s Calculations

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7 月 7, 2026

Ahead of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Stepan Rusyn, Coordinator of the German-Ukrainian Partnership Program at the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, spoke to Table.Briefings about the significance of the Alliance’s expected decisions for Ukraine.

The summit comes at a critical moment, as Ukraine continues to face large-scale Russian drone and missile attacks while seeking stronger and more predictable support from its partners. NATO Allies are expected to reaffirm their solidarity with Ukraine and mobilize approximately €140 billion in financial assistance for 2026 and 2027.

乌克兰方面也面临挑战。尽管 SAFE 条例允许其领土用于共同生产,但这与乌克兰自 2022 年遭到入侵以来实施的出口禁令相冲突。根据乌克兰法律,具体而言,《军用和军民两用物项国际转让国家管制法》的规定,国防物项出口通常被禁止,只有获得指定国家机关的适当授权方可进行。 Rusyn, the growing institutionalisation of Western support is strategically important, as it demonstrates that assistance to Ukraine is not solely dependent on short-term political developments in individual countries.

“This could counter Moscow’s calculation that political fluctuations in the West will erode aid and lead to Ukraine’s eventual collapse, and might motivate the Kremlin to enter into serious negotiations before winter,” Rusyn told Table.Briefings.

Such long-term commitments could therefore influence not only Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defence but also Russia’s assessment of whether it can simply outlast Western support.

与此同时, Rusyn stressed that Kyiv’s immediate priority remains the strengthening of its air defense. Ukraine expects NATO Allies to provide additional PAC-3 interceptor missiles from their existing stockpiles, which are urgently needed to protect Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure and civilians from continued Russian attacks.

The NATO Summit is also expected to place greater emphasis on transforming financial commitments into tangible defense capabilities, including missiles, drones, and interceptor systems. For Ukraine, the key question is whether the political declarations made in Ankara will be followed by timely and practical decisions on air defence.

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