{"id":32054,"date":"2025-08-21T16:06:49","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T13:06:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=32054"},"modified":"2025-11-05T11:57:58","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T09:57:58","slug":"restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/uk\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/","title":{"rendered":"Restoration of Russian Gas Transit Through Ukraine: Political, Economic and Geostrategic Consequences"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"51882\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"Download in pdf\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>Download in pdf<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">877 KB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>This study focuses on the potential implications of resuming Russian natural gas transit through<br>Ukraine \u2013 a scenario that is increasingly being discussed in the context of ongoing peace<br>negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. The study assesses whether such a move would be in<br>line with Ukraine\u2019s national interests and Europe\u2019s broader energy security priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following the expiration of the gas transit agreement between Naftogaz, Ukraine\u2019s national<br>energy company, and Russia\u2019s Gazprom at the end of 2019, Ukraine officially ceased the transit<br>of Russian gas to the EU as of January 1, 2025. This decision marked a significant shift in the<br>European energy landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the cessation of transit activities resulted in economic losses for Ukraine, it also led to a<br>substantial weakening of the Russian Federation&#8217;s position within the European energy market.<br>This, in turn, diminished the Kremlin&#8217;s capacity to utilize energy resources as a political instrument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Geopolitical shifts:<\/strong> The ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine, in conjunction with the<br>European Union&#8217;s (EU) endeavors to diversify its energy sources, has resulted in a significant<br>decline in Russian gas imports. Specifically, Russian gas imports have decreased from 41% of<br>the EU\u2019s supply in 2020 to just 9% in 2023. The termination of gas transit through Ukraine at the<br>beginning of 2025 did not result in substantial disruption to the energy security of the European<br>Union. However, it did result in the Russian Federation&#8217;s loss of revenues from gas sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Economic impact for Ukraine: <\/strong>Termination of transit will cost Ukraine up to $1 billion a year in<br>lost revenue. Additionally, gas reserves had fallen to just 0.7 billion cubic meters as of April 2025<br>due to a decline in domestic production resulting from Russian attacks, leading to escalating gas<br>import costs for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Alternative gas transit scenarios:<\/strong> Scenarios involving the use of Azerbaijani gas, direct booking<br>by European companies of transit capacities, or strategic cooperation on utilizing Ukraine\u2019s<br>underground gas storage facilities are considered, but each faces technical, legal, or geopolitical<br>obstacles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit-2.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:1006px\" aria-label=\"\u0412\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043a\u0430 TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-1c507d5d-7368-4d12-86dd-915c1b95d495\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit-2.pdf\">TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It\u2019s content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This study focuses on the potential implications of resuming Russian natural gas transit throughUkraine \u2013 a scenario that is increasingly being discussed in the context of ongoing peacenegotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. The study assesses whether such a move would be inline with Ukraine\u2019s national interests and Europe\u2019s broader energy security priorities. Following the expiration [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":32057,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,71],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-32054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports-handbooks","category-eng-reports-eu-ukraine-partnership-program"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Restoration of Russian Gas Transit Through Ukraine: Political, Economic and Geostrategic Consequences - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Resuming Russian gas transit via Ukraine could impact Kyiv\u2019s interests and Europe\u2019s energy security, amid geopolitical and economic trade-offs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/uk\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uk_UA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Restoration of Russian Gas Transit Through Ukraine: Political, Economic and Geostrategic Consequences\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. The network of our friends and partners includes government officials, members of parliaments, businessmen, journalists, experts and analysts.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/uk\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Transatlantic-Dialogue-Center-105645698740463\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-21T13:06:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-05T09:57:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unnamed.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1238\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Daryna Sydorenko\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u041d\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Daryna Sydorenko\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u041f\u0440\u0438\u0431\u043b. \u0447\u0430\u0441 \u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 \u0445\u0432\u0438\u043b\u0438\u043d\u0438\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daryna Sydorenko\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/#\/schema\/person\/98e2f5bb6c890bd0e4fb5c6144121453\"},\"headline\":\"Restoration of Russian Gas Transit Through Ukraine: Political, Economic and Geostrategic Consequences\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-08-21T13:06:49+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-11-05T09:57:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/\"},\"wordCount\":363,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/unnamed.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"English Reports &amp; Handbooks\",\"EU-Ukraine Partnership Program\"],\"inLanguage\":\"uk\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/2025\/08\/21\/restoration-of-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-political-economic-and-geostrategic-consequences\/\",\"name\":\"Restoration of Russian Gas Transit Through Ukraine: Political, Economic and Geostrategic Consequences - 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