{"id":27172,"date":"2024-12-19T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=27172"},"modified":"2025-08-08T20:12:03","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T17:12:03","slug":"caution-in-ukraine-may-cost-the-west-international-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/uk\/2024\/12\/19\/caution-in-ukraine-may-cost-the-west-international-order\/","title":{"rendered":"Caution in Ukraine May Cost the West International Order"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"45962\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"Download in pdf\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>Download in pdf<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">1 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaways<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Western Caution Undermines Ukraine&#8217;s War Effort<\/strong>: Delays in military aid, such as tanks, fighter jets, and long-range missiles, prevent Ukraine from mounting effective counteroffensives, leading to manpower shortages and weakening its defense.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Escalating Authoritarian Cooperation<\/strong>: North Korea is supplying troops and ammunition to Russia, while Iran continues to provide drones and missiles. This \u201cauthoritarian alliance\u201d exploits Western hesitation to strengthen its position.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Peace Through Strength Strategy<\/strong>: A potential U.S. shift under a Trump administration could involve more robust support for Ukraine if Russia refuses meaningful negotiations, reflecting a \u201cpeace through strength\u201d approach.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Threat to Western Credibility<\/strong>: The West\u2019s reluctance to decisively support Ukraine risks undermining its deterrence, especially in the context of U.S.-China rivalry. If the U.S. falters in Europe, its credibility in the Asia-Pacific region could weaken.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Global South\u2019s Pragmatism<\/strong>: Countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa remain neutral, benefiting from discounted Russian energy. Their distrust of the West and pragmatic ties with Russia challenge the Western-led order.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Transition to a Multipolar Order<\/strong>: Failure to support Ukraine could accelerate a shift toward a multipolar world, where alliances like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gain influence, diminishing Western power.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Urgent Need for a New Western Strategy<\/strong>: The West must eliminate self-imposed red lines, increase military aid to Ukraine, and engage the Global South more effectively to preserve the current international order.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1240\" height=\"508\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27174\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-8.png 1240w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-8-600x246.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-8-1024x420.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-8-768x315.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-8-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1240px) 100vw, 1240px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>On November 19, 2024, Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine marked the 1000th day of the full-scale invasion. This war has seen an unprecedented scale of military action involving large military groupings, the shelling of tens of thousands of shells, and the use of drones and missiles on a monthly basis. Transformative in nature, the war has become a tipping point for European security architecture and the current international order. Russia has struggled to achieve its strategic military goals, yet its ambitions do not appear to be waning or moderating, even in the face of severe casualties from its war of aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s combat casualties, according to the General Staff of Ukraine&#8217;s Armed Forces, amount to more than 740,000 military personnel killed, wounded, or missing in action. Still, this has not been enough to convince the Kremlin to end the war and move to peace negotiations. On the contrary, Russia continues to pursue its goal of subjugating Ukraine while also simultaneously threatening the West for providing any substantial support to Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Delays in military support to Ukraine from the West, both in terms of quantity and type, have been costly for Ukraine. The country has been losing its most skilled soldiers, and some brigades are short of manpower to continue the fight. Domestically, the challenge of effective mobilization persists, and the unpredictability of Western support can be seen as one of the contributing factors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The West\u2019s current approach barely enables Ukraine to halt the loss of territory, let alone set the stage for a large-scale counteroffensive. The US and the West\u2019s cautious approach to supporting Ukraine seems to embolden the so-called \u201calliance of authoritarian regimes\u201d\u2014abbreviated as CRINK\u2014China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, as witnessed by their deepening cooperation and enhanced partnerships.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"815\" height=\"543\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27176\" style=\"width:691px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-10.png 815w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-10-600x400.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-10-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-10-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 815px) 100vw, 815px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Olaf Scholz inspect the drones as part of the Chancellor&#8217;s <\/em><br><em>visit to Ukraine. Source: Zelenskiy Telegram page<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>At this stage, despite coordinated sanctions, Russia persists in strengthening its military-industrial complex and war-footing economy, also by receiving support from authoritarian regimes. Iran continues to supply Russia with Shahed drones and missiles. At the same time, North Korea not only sends ammunition and missiles but has also committed troops to fight against Ukraine in Russia\u2019s Kursk region. The collective West\u2019s desire to localize the conflict and manage escalation has failed, and its overall deterrence appears weak. A further fracturing of Western support for Ukraine risks Russia and its allies deepening their cooperation (also known as authoritarian solidarity) and undermining the West\u2019s position in the international system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Lack of Resolve, Russia\u2019s Military-Strategic Calculus, and Third-Party Involvement<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>International relations scholars have long studied how the longevity of a war constrains swift conflict resolution and increases the likelihood of third-party intervention. When regional and great powers feel their most vital interests are threatened by the long conflict or see it as an opportunity to boost their power and influence, they might choose to intervene. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the West\u2019s efforts to localize the war, North Korea still has de facto joined Russia\u2019s war effort. If Russia does not achieve major successes quickly, other powers may also consider increasing their support for the Kremlin\u2019s war or join the conflict directly, seeing it as a \u201conce-in-a-lifetime opportunity\u201d to weaken the West and potentially gain military technology or other kinds of support<strong> <\/strong>from Russia, as has been the case with Iran and North Korea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throughout the war, Russia tested the West\u2019s reaction, resolve, and deterrence (including nuclear), while other powers watched closely the developments on the European continent, learning necessary lessons and upgrading their own militaries. The Western response to the invasion at the war\u2019s outset seemed more coherent and united than it is now. Specifically, the Joe Biden administration in the United States, along with its European allies, voiced full support for Ukraine \u201cfor as long as it takes.\u201d But in practice, the approach has been more cautious, avoiding swift provision of various game-changing capabilities, particularly due to concerns over escalation and the potential for the war to spiral out of control and become a regional conflict involving NATO, Russia, and potentially others. This caution was evident in the delayed transfer of tanks, fighter jets, and cruise missiles, as well as the reluctance to strike military targets within Russia &#8211; actions necessary to turn the tide in Ukraine\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"751\" height=\"455\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27178\" style=\"width:607px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-12.png 751w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-12-600x364.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-12-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>RT-2PM Topol. Source: U.S. Naval Institute<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The reputation of the West among other global powers, in case of failure to ensure long-term support to Ukraine and take necessary steps to boost Ukraine\u2019s strength for potential negotiations, will have dire consequences, especially for the US and the next president. This is also pertinent in the context of the US-China strategic competition since, in the case of Ukraine\u2019s failure, the entire US deterrence and its credibility will be questioned by Beijing and other revisionist powers. The main argument would be that if the US is not willing to protect its most directly threatened interests and stability in the region where American influence is dominant, then how will the US be able to deter or, in the event of a conflict, respond in the Asia-Pacific, or elsewhere?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reelection of Donald Trump as a Perceived Opportunity to Challenge the Western-Led International Order<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s ambitions in its war against Ukraine do not seem to be decreasing decrease in light of severe casualties, as would have been the case for any other democratic state facing such losses. Now, however, those very ambitions appear to be even greater, amid the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, a gradual decrease in support from Ukraine\u2019s European partners, and, most importantly, the reelection of Donald Trump in the US as the next president, associated with the possibility of either limiting military support to Ukraine or cutting it off completely and favoring Russia\u2019s position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s return to the Oval Office presents both challenges and opportunities. However, based on his past foreign policy decisions \u2013 criticizing multilateralism, undermining transatlantic relations and NATO, and focusing more on America\u2019s domestic affairs \u2013 ensuring his prolonged support to Ukraine poses a critical challenge to Ukraine and its European allies. Furthermore, analysts are worried that his policies could encourage Russia, China, and other revisionist powers to unite and continue to disrupt the Western-led international order, especially if the US is unwilling to defend it and focuses on domestic issues instead. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though the US will likely continue to keep an eye on the China threat as part of its security and strategic priorities, neglecting the Russian threat and refusing to address it could have even more dangerous consequences. Should Russia succeed in Ukraine, the US would be forced to allocate far more resources to Europe, including deploying more troops, modernizing logistics to support swift military movements (which are reported to be in poor condition), and supporting the development of Europe\u2019s military-industrial complex directly.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"767\" height=\"487\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-14.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27180\" style=\"width:671px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-14.png 767w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-14-600x381.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-14-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 100vw, 767px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine&#8217;s President Volodymyr Zelensky meet at<\/em><br><em> Trump Tower in New York City, U.S., September 27, 2024. Shannon Stapleton\/Reuters<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, Donald Trump\u2019s future policy toward the Russia-Ukraine war remains unclear. The communication from the Trump team suggests different options that might include limiting US support to Ukraine or making it conditional to push Kyiv for negotiations. The appointment of Keith Kellogg as the US special envoy for Ukraine and Russia provides a glimpse into the new administration&#8217;s future policy toward a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, but the terms and conditions of a potential peace deal remain vague. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, observers suggest that Trump might pursue a \u201cpeace through strength strategy,\u201d meaning that the US could provide even more robust support to Ukraine if it sees Russia as unwilling to engage in diplomacy and negotiations meaningfully and in good faith. The current developments, however, do not provide any prerequisites for successful negotiations against the backdrop of Russia\u2019s cabal demands addressed to Ukraine and the West. After all, the position of the new administration will be decisive for the final outcome of the war and will have wide-ranging implications for the future of international order, the West\u2019s position in it, and the global equilibrium of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stance of the Global South: Towards a Multipolar International Order?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The Global South\u2019s position on the Russia-Ukraine war remains largely unchanged, with stances varying slightly depending on each country\u2019s specific domestic context and foreign policy strategies, particularly in relation to the West. Countries such as India, Brazil, South Africa, and other small and middle powers have not condemned Russia directly for its aggression against Ukraine, though they have reiterated their commitment to sovereignty and territorial integrity in general, including during some of the votings of the UNGA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this does not indicate that these countries are severing ties with Russia or joining the US and European countries in pressuring Moscow to end the war. On the contrary, the Global South aims to maintain pragmatic relations with both Russia and the West, diversifying their external ties while maintaining an independent and autonomous position in the international system. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"808\" height=\"539\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-15.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27181\" style=\"width:718px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-15.png 808w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-15-600x400.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-15-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image-15-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 808px) 100vw, 808px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, second from right, arrives at the Kazan airport to attend<\/em> <em>the BRICS summit from October 22 to 24, 2024 [Handout\/brics-russia2024.ru via AFP]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The Global South is exploiting Russia\u2019s weaknesses through favorable deals amid Western sanctions, de facto contributing to Moscow\u2019s ability to continue the war (i.e., through buying cheap oil and gas, revenues from which constitute a chief part of Russia\u2019s war economy). In the context of Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, China and other Global South powers might view the Kremlin as a pawn to accelerate the collapse of the Western-led international order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What unites many of these countries is their distrust of the West, stemming from their historical experiences and the belief that the West is hypocritical. This distrust, coupled with ongoing global issues, intensifies global competition. Key global governance problems, such as UN reform, equitable access to technology, AI, finance, and addressing climate change, and the lack of the West\u2019s more active engagement could drive the Global South to further align with other great powers, especially China, to create alternative structures that better reflect their interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine has reignited discussions about the West\u2019s ability to maintain the current international order and the potential for a reordering in which countries of the Global South could play a more prominent role. This could involve greater influence from BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with China in a dominant position<strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some contend that the future shape of the international order will be determined in Ukraine. In the current context, the West\u2019s lack of strategy to counter Russia effectively and resolve to support Ukraine unequivocally could signal its overall weakening. This could indicate the US and Europe\u2019s unwillingness to defend the core values that underpinned the international order they created after World War II. Others argue that, given the diverging positions of various powers on the Russia-Ukraine war, the world is already witnessing a transition to a post-Western, or multipolar, international order that extends beyond the bipolar confrontation between the United States and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the West to maintain its current position in the international order, it must reshape its strategy on Russia and Ukraine, bearing in mind that the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war will have a significant impact on the global balance of power. It is also critical to continue engaging with the Global South and countering Russian and Chinese influence over their stances. This may also be important for the Global South\u2019s role as a potential mediator in negotiations over the war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, to win the battle for the Global South, the West should not only focus on global governance reforms but also demonstrate greater willpower, resilience, and resolve to convince nations worldwide that it is serious about upholding international rules and is prepared to defend its principles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the current stage, when Russia continues to push its demands to Ukraine (such as non-accession to NATO, a neutral status, limitations on the size of Ukraine\u2019s military, and conceding its internationally recognized territories), the lack of decisive Western response serves as evidence of the West\u2019s diminishing power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Leaving Ukraine without credible security guarantees and reaching a peace agreement based on this scenario would fail to stabilize Europe despite widespread diplomatic calls and the emergence of different peace plans, particularly from the Global South. This could signify a rapid transition to a multipolar international order, in which the West\u2019s position is not as favorable as it currently is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In light of increased calls for a diplomatic settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war, the US and the West are faced with a critical problem. On the one hand, a diplomatic resolution could be seen as a favorable option to achieve peace. On the other hand, the ongoing developments on the battlefield do not suggest that Ukraine is in a position to negotiate from a position of strength, or at least as an equal party. If Ukraine refuses to accept Russia\u2019s conditions, which it is most likely to reject due to Russia\u2019s unrealistic demands, Putin could opt to continue the war of attrition, aiming to gain more territory, further divide the West, and create more tensions within Ukrainian society. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These developments create an urgent need to review the Western strategy toward Russia-Ukraine, adopting a more proactive and comprehensive approach, and eliminating artificial red lines that self-restraint critical decisions regarding the provision of military support. The fear of escalation has not impacted Russia\u2019s goals in Ukraine, nor has it prevented third-party intervention in the conflict, as seen with North Korea&#8217;s involvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This updated strategy is even more vital in light of the changing international order and the rise of various powers in the Global South. Their diverging positions and low levels of trust in the West suggest further global polarization. The Western failure in Ukraine could potentially lead to an even greater voice for these powers in international affairs, especially China and those who perceive the current order as created by the West to serve its purposes and interests only. Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine presents a landmark opportunity for the Global South and China, as its perceived \u201cadvocate\u201d to push for a multipolar international order &#8211; one where the West occupies a more degraded position, while wars of conquest could be normalized and rewarded, with significant consequences for the entire UN system, international law, and the stability of the international order and global governance overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the papers published on this site belong solely to the authors and not necessarily to the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, its committees, or its affiliated organizations. The papers are intended to stimulate dialogue and discussion and do not represent official policy positions of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center or any other organizations the authors may be associated with.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways On November 19, 2024, Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine marked the 1000th day of the full-scale invasion. This war has seen an unprecedented scale of military action involving large military groupings, the shelling of tens of thousands of shells, and the use of drones and missiles on a monthly basis. Transformative in nature, the [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":27175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,56,58],"tags":[],"topic":[88,93,86,92],"class_list":["post-27172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-eng-north-america","category-eng-western-europe","topic-defense","topic-geopolitics","topic-ukraine","topic-war"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Caution in Ukraine May Cost the West International Order - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore how Western caution in Ukraine undermines its war effort, risks global order, and strengthens authoritarian alliances with North Korea and Iran.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/uk\/2024\/12\/19\/caution-in-ukraine-may-cost-the-west-international-order\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uk_UA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Caution in Ukraine May Cost the West International Order\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. 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