{"id":50695,"date":"2022-03-28T19:35:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-28T16:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?tdc-native-operation=tdc-2460-68ba32318f8b5cbaa8c1&amp;locale=it_IT"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:42:31","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T16:42:31","slug":"lo-scenario-coreano","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/it\/2022\/03\/28\/lo-scenario-coreano\/","title":{"rendered":"Lo \u00abscenario coreano\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avendo subito una completa sconfitta tattica in Ucraina, la Russia \u00e8 costretta a riconsiderare le sue ulteriori azioni al fronte. Non essendo riuscite a occupare rapidamente le principali citt\u00e0 ucraine, come inizialmente previsto, le truppe russe stanno rafforzando la loro presenza nei territori occupati. Contrariamente alle precedenti parole di Putin secondo cui \u00abla Russia non intende impadronirsi del territorio dell\u2019Ucraina\u00bb, le azioni delle truppe russe costituiscono una classica occupazione, con la graduale integrazione economica, politica e demografica dei territori occupati nella Federazione Russa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>La Russia si \u00e8 trovata sottoposta a una pressione politica ed economica senza precedenti, il suo esercito non \u00e8 ben equipaggiato e non dispone di una reale capacit\u00e0 di movimento terrestre. In tali circostanze, il Cremlino potrebbe abbandonare i piani di un\u2019ulteriore conquista dell\u2019Ucraina, ma cercherebbe di consolidare i territori gi\u00e0 catturati.<br>Putin potrebbe tentare di unire i territori occupati delle regioni di Cherson e Zapori\u017e\u017eja al territorio delle cosiddette repubbliche L\/DPR. Un certo prototipo dello \u00abscenario coreano\u00bb volto alla divisione artificiale dell\u2019Ucraina. Teoricamente, si tratta del consolidamento dei territori de facto controllati dalla Russia e della possibilit\u00e0 di una pausa tattica prima di un\u2019ulteriore offensiva. Su larga scala, la possibilit\u00e0 di realizzare un simile progetto nella pratica \u00e8 impossibile. Gli occupanti hanno incontrato un rifiuto totale e resistenza da parte dei residenti locali. Inoltre, dal punto di vista sociopolitico, unire Cherson all\u2019L\/DPR \u00e8 pura utopia. Oltre a enormi perdite finanziarie, la Russia si ritrover\u00e0 una guerriglia partigiana alle spalle e rimarr\u00e0 impantanata in una guerra asimmetrica, nella quale la parte del conflitto pi\u00f9 forte in termini di risorse ha poche possibilit\u00e0 di vincere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Lo \u00abscenario coreano\u00bb \u00e8 irrealistico anche perch\u00e9 i territori dell\u2019Ucraina attualmente controllati dalla Russia sono piccoli frammenti dispersi lungo una linea del fronte di 1.800 chilometri. Spesso si tratta solo di strade lungo le quali i convogli russi si muovono caoticamente e i cui confini cambiano continuamente a causa delle ostilit\u00e0. Pertanto, il concetto di divisione dell\u2019Ucraina con la conquista delle regioni meridionali e orientali \u00e8 puramente tecnicamente impossibile. La Russia controlla aree relativamente piccole nel nord, nell\u2019est e nel sud dell\u2019Ucraina. Al momento, \u00e8 semplicemente fisicamente impossibile unirle.<br>La Russia \u00e8 sull\u2019orlo di un imminente default. Qualsiasi territorio aggiuntivo nella sua composizione rappresenta un onere finanziario ed economico. Si parla gi\u00e0 di un possibile congelamento dei depositi bancari dei russi. Sovvenzionare l\u2019Ucraina \u00e8 un passo estremamente impopolare e oneroso per il tesoro russo.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avendo subito una completa sconfitta tattica in Ucraina, la Russia \u00e8 costretta a riconsiderare le sue ulteriori azioni al fronte. Non essendo riuscite a occupare rapidamente le principali citt\u00e0 ucraine, come inizialmente previsto, le truppe russe stanno rafforzando la loro presenza nei territori occupati. Contrariamente alle precedenti parole di Putin secondo cui \u00abla Russia non [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-50695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Lo \u00abscenario coreano\u00bb della Russia per l\u2019Ucraina | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Non essendo riuscite a occupare rapidamente le principali citt\u00e0 ucraine, come inizialmente previsto, le truppe russe stanno rafforzando la loro presenza nei territori occupati.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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