{"id":5002,"date":"2022-05-19T17:42:17","date_gmt":"2022-05-19T14:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=5002"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:43:26","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:43:26","slug":"destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/it\/2022\/05\/19\/destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Destabilizzazione della Transnistria: preludio alla destabilizzazione dell\u2019Europa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the first refugees started fleeing from Transnistria. Short after these events, Moldovan President M. Sandu held a meeting of the Security Council. On May 1, the British newspaper The Times published an article stating that the Kremlin had decided to invade Moldova, from where it would try to open a new front against Ukraine, in particular, aimed from the west at Odesa and the Odesa region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.rferl.org\/44675F79-0DD7-4668-92D0-2549C10D0D8E_cx0_cy1_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u0421\u0432\u044f\u0442\u043a\u0443\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0414\u043d\u044f \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0438 \u0432 \u0422\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0456. \u041f\u0440\u0438\u0434\u043d\u0456\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432'\u044f 9 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u044f 2014 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0443\"\/><figcaption><em>Celebrazione del Giorno della Vittoria a Tiraspol. Transnistria, 9 maggio 2014.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meaning: the events in Transnistria are developing according to the typical &#8220;Donetsk&#8221; scenario when an external threat was artificially created, an evacuation was announced, and then mobilization in the &#8220;L\/DNR&#8221;, which ended with a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>military capabilities of the PMR and L\/DNR are incomparable but Russia is trying to create an additional threat to Ukraine, and as a possible option &#8211; an irritant provoking the response of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;<\/li><li>un altro avvertimento a M. Sandu sull\u2019inopportunit\u00e0 di fornire carburante all\u2019Ucraina attraverso il territorio della Moldova. Altrimenti, si ritrover\u00e0 la guerra in casa;<\/li><li>the traditional parade on May 9 in Transnistria has been cancelled. Given the extreme ideological saturation of the republic, this is a very serious step. Together with the need for &#8220;some kind of victory&#8221; for Putin, this &#8220;victory&#8221; may be the PMR;<\/li><li>in caso di destabilizzazione della Moldova, M. Sandu non sar\u00e0 in grado di resistere alla Russia, in particolare di fronte ad attacchi di precisione: sar\u00e0 costretta ad arrendersi oppure a chiedere aiuto a Paesi terzi;<\/li><li>se l\u2019Ucraina interverr\u00e0, la Russia avr\u00e0 l\u2019opportunit\u00e0 di aumentare la propria pressione sul campo di battaglia. Nel caso estremo, potrebbe dichiarare ufficialmente guerra a Kyiv;<\/li><li>if Romania intervenes, this would constitute a precedent at a higher level &#8211; the NATO level. Romania alone will not oppose Russia and NATO will have to consider whether to go to war with Russia for the sake of Moldova;<\/li><li>i media occidentali riferiscono sempre pi\u00f9 spesso che Putin ha gi\u00e0 deciso di conquistare militarmente la Moldova. Le truppe russe non sono riuscite a creare attraverso l\u2019Ucraina un corridoio terrestre verso la Transnistria, quindi attaccare uno Stato debole con un esercito formalmente esistente sarebbe una soluzione pi\u00f9 semplice che sfondare tale corridoio in pesanti e sanguinosi combattimenti;<\/li><li>dopo l'occupazione della Moldova, la Russia accrescer\u00e0 le proprie capacit\u00e0 di mobilitazione e otterr\u00e0 una certa quantit\u00e0 di armi. La Russia ha una drammatica carenza di soldati davvero pronti al combattimento, che cerca di reclutare in ogni occasione, persino conquistando Paesi nettamente pi\u00f9 deboli.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia is raising the complexity of challenges and is trying to create additional hotbeds of possible war near the borders of NATO and the EU. The next epicentre may be the Balkans. Serbia is already at the centre of attention. Most importantly, the Kremlin has proved that a fairly simple method of &#8220;portraying the aggressor as the victim&#8221;, which was introduced by Hitler, is also applicable in our time. At the macro level, Russia is trying to destabilize Europe and the collective West. At the micro level, it is generating additional threats to Ukraine, creating, among other things, preconditions for a more massive invasion of southern Ukraine, formation of a land corridor to Transnistria with the potential occupation of Moldova if the West completely fails to act.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,31],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-5002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Transnistria\u2019s Destabilization Risk for Europe | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This analysis examines the April 2022 attacks in Transnistria and the risk that instability there could widen Russia\u2019s war beyond Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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