{"id":23718,"date":"2024-05-09T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-09T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=23718"},"modified":"2025-08-05T12:56:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T09:56:50","slug":"how-not-to-lose-voters-pre-election-campaigns-of-biden-and-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/it\/2024\/05\/09\/how-not-to-lose-voters-pre-election-campaigns-of-biden-and-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Come (non) perdere gli elettori: le campagne preelettorali di Biden e Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-by-dana-hunda\"><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"42417\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"Scarica il PDF in inglese\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>Scarica il PDF in inglese<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">2 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Punti chiave<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dinamiche delle primarie:<\/strong>&nbsp;Le primarie repubblicane si sono rapidamente ristrette al solo Donald Trump come candidato di punta dopo le prime vittorie, mentre Joe Biden appare come il principale contendente dei Democratici.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trump&#8217;s Campaign and Controversies:<\/strong>&nbsp;Donald Trump mantiene un forte sostegno dalla propria base nonostante le controversie in corso e le sfide legali. La sua campagna sfrutta temi familiari delle precedenti candidature, quali politiche migratorie restrittive e promesse economiche.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Le sfide legali e di consenso per Trump:<\/strong>&nbsp;Pur dovendo affrontare numerose questioni legali e una percezione pubblica contrastante, il sostegno repubblicano di base a Trump resta stabile, con un rilevante appoggio alle sue proposte politiche e al suo stile di leadership.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Biden&#8217;s&nbsp;Performance and Public Approval:<\/strong>&nbsp;President Biden\u2019s performance is seen as satisfactory by Democrats, but overall approval remains below the 50% threshold usually indicative of strong reelection prospects.&nbsp;Mostly,&nbsp;voter concerns lie over his handling of immigration, the economy, and foreign policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Incertezze elettorali<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong>&nbsp;Il potenziale successo di entrambi i candidati \u00e8 difficile da prevedere a causa della mutevolezza degli orientamenti degli elettori, dell\u2019influenza delle questioni chiave e della volatilit\u00e0 degli schieramenti politici.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fattori strategici per il successo elettorale:<\/strong>&nbsp;The election outcome will likely hinge on the effectiveness of the candidates&#8217; campaigns, their ability to navigate controversies, and their success in mobilizing voter support amidst a polarized electorate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"595\" height=\"235\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23720\" style=\"width:897px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image.jpeg 595w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-18x7.jpeg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quest\u2019anno negli Stati Uniti si \u00e8 riaperta la stagione delle primarie. I candidati devono vincere o ottenere buoni risultati nelle primarie o nei caucus di ciascuno Stato per ottenere delegati di partito e partecipare alle elezioni di novembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sebbene le primarie si svolgano nell\u2019arco di sei mesi, entro la fine di marzo sar\u00e0 scelto oltre il 70% dei delegati. Gli Stati possono ancora modificare date e regole delle elezioni, aggiungendo un elemento di imprevedibilit\u00e0 alla competizione e costringendo i candidati a rimanere attivi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initially, among the Republicans, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswami, and Donald Trump were leading. However, later, two candidates dropped out, and Haley withdrew after&nbsp;losing&nbsp;in her own state and at the national level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rimane dunque un solo candidato repubblicano che ha ricevuto il maggior sostegno degli elettori: Donald Trump. Attualmente ha un solo avversario che potrebbe minacciare i suoi piani di vittoria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sul versante democratico, il candidato pi\u00f9 popolare \u00e8 Joe Biden che, come Trump, ha la possibilit\u00e0 di concorrere per un secondo mandato.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ma \u00e8 davvero cos\u00ec? Trump, che molti sembrano sostenere, riuscir\u00e0 comunque a vincere, oppure Joe Biden potr\u00e0 mantenere la leadership per altri quattro anni?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article offers an overview of the presidential candidates&#8217; election campaigns, an analysis of the main reasons for their unpopularity among the wider electorate, and the prospects of successful results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-donald-trump-guaranteed-winner-or-loud-fiasco\"><strong>Donald Trump: vincitore garantito o clamoroso fiasco?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"979\" height=\"650\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23725\" style=\"width:374px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430.jpg 979w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430-600x398.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430-768x510.jpg 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 979px) 100vw, 979px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>CHIP SOMODEVILLA \/ AFP<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first state that attracted everyone&#8217;s attention was Iowa. On January 15, the season officially opened there, and the first primaries were held. In these primaries, Trump achieved an undeniable victory, receiving the votes of 20 delegates out of 40. In all subsequent primaries and party caucuses (New Hampshire, Nevada, Virgin Islands, and another 15 states on Super Tuesday), which had already taken place by February 11, Trump also&nbsp;won&nbsp;with a significant lead, leaving his competitors behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Such &#8220;obviousness&#8221; of the results right from the start forced many candidates to drop out of the race in the first months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, given the huge number of contradictions and fatal mistakes surrounding the main favorite of Republican Party voters, there is some dissonance. To understand the reasons behind his enormous support, we need to consider his approach to the&nbsp;2016 elections, revisit his defeat in 2020, and compare it with the situation we observe today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In June 2015, Trump announced his candidacy for president, using the slogan &#8220;Make America Great Again&#8221; on red caps, which became iconic. He promised to create jobs, repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), increase coal production, reduce the influence of lobbyists, withdraw from the Paris Agreement, impose tariffs on imports, build a wall on the border, and ban Muslim immigration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Positioning himself as an outsider, Trump garnered support from conservatives, including the Tea Party movement.&nbsp;During his campaign, the opponents highlighted numerous controversies stemming from what they deemed provocative remarks. They emphasized his remarks, which were often perceived as racist and sexist, and criticized his reluctance to condemn groups like the Ku Klux Klan. These issues fueled concerns among many about his stance on equality and justice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the criticism, he won the nomination from the Republican Party, heavily targeting his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump&#8217;s threat to imprison Clinton in the event of his victory in the elections was unprecedented in US political history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And although&nbsp;more people&nbsp;voted for Clinton (65.8 million votes), due to the US voting system, Trump (62.9 million votes) won the 2016 election.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1310\" height=\"916\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23726\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302.png 1310w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-600x420.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-1024x716.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-768x537.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1310px) 100vw, 1310px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nel 2020 Trump ottenne la nomina senza una concorrenza significativa e il partito decise di riutilizzare la piattaforma del 2016. Condusse la campagna sulla base di promesse riguardanti la creazione di posti di lavoro, lo sviluppo di un vaccino contro il COVID-19 e la riforma dell\u2019immigrazione, criticando le politiche del candidato democratico Joe Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All\u2019indomani di un\u2019elezione molto contestata, il candidato uscente sollev\u00f2 dubbi sulla legittimit\u00e0 dei risultati. Ci\u00f2 port\u00f2 a una serie di ricorsi legali, per un totale di 60 cause, volti a riesaminare gli esiti elettorali. Furono inoltre compiuti sforzi per coinvolgere autorit\u00e0 giudiziarie superiori, compresa la Corte Suprema, affinch\u00e9 riesaminassero il processo. Durante un\u2019importante manifestazione del 6 gennaio, a cui parteciparono gruppi diversi, Trump ribad\u00ec le preoccupazioni sull\u2019integrit\u00e0 elettorale. L\u2019evento coincise con l\u2019aumento delle tensioni, culminato nell\u2019irruzione nella sede del Congresso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within days, the House of Representatives impeached Trump for &#8220;incitement of insurrection,&#8221; marking the first time a US president had been impeached twice (the first was in 2019). However, Trump was acquitted as the Senate failed to reach the necessary two-thirds majority to convict him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-so-what-can-we-conclude\"><strong>Quindi<\/strong><strong><em>,&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><strong>che cosa possiamo concludere?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump&#8217;s campaign strategy involves a set of policies that have been met with scrutiny, particularly in relation to minority rights and adherence to international accords. The rhetoric has often been characterized as bold and has sparked widespread discussion. Criticism directed at counterparts from the Democratic Party has been its consistent element, alongside an assertive approach to the electoral process. The campaign has also been active in seeking judicial review of election results and has engaged its audience in a manner that some interpret as strongly encouraging activism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s also important to mention the legal cases in which the former president is the main accused. Today, Donald Trump has become the first president of the United States ever to face criminal responsibility. Negative news mentioning the former president&#8217;s name appears with remarkable regularity. Therefore, ratings may decline, not rise or remain stable, unless he learns to use the courtroom as a PR platform<strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to recent polls&nbsp;(March 2-4), 79% of Republican Party members support Trump. This figure has remained stable over the past year despite active criminal investigations and questionable&nbsp;statements&nbsp;about NATO and Ukraine, which Trump announced on February 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, only 43% of American voters (data as of March 24-26) view Trump positively. Also, a clear majority of Americans (66%) believe that Donald Trump should not have immunity from criminal prosecution for actions he took during his presidency. By the way, a federal appeals court recently&nbsp;reached&nbsp;the same conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Views on Trump&#8217;s attempts to remain president after the 2020 election have essentially&nbsp;remained unchanged&nbsp;from what they were a year and a half ago during public hearings on the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021: 45% believe he acted illegally, 32% unethically, and 23% believe he did nothing wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sulla stessa questione, circa la met\u00e0 dei Repubblicani (49%) afferma che Trump non abbia fatto nulla di sbagliato dopo le ultime elezioni presidenziali, il 40% ritiene le sue azioni non etiche e solo l\u201911% le considera illegali.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1540\" height=\"870\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23728\" style=\"width:750px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303.png 1540w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-600x339.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-1536x868.png 1536w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1540px) 100vw, 1540px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americans generally&nbsp;agree&nbsp;on what to expect from Trump after this year&#8217;s general elections, regardless of whether they end in his victory or defeat. If the Republican Party nominates Trump and he loses, most believe he will refuse to concede again. And if he wins,&nbsp;there is widespread anticipation that he may seek to leverage the authority of the White House to pursue certain actions. These actions could potentially involve exploring avenues for self-pardon in the face of federal convictions, initiating federal inquiries into political adversaries, and introducing a range of policy adjustments. Among the speculated changes are initiatives such as addressing the status of millions of undocumented immigrants, revisiting the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and potentially reshaping the composition of the federal workforce in alignment with his policy agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among Trump supporters, about half (48%) of Americans&nbsp;say&nbsp;they support Trump&#8217;s attempt to mass deport undocumented immigrants, while 39% support repealing and replacing Obamacare. About a third want him to fire federal workers who oppose his policies (34%), instruct the Justice Department to investigate competitors (31%), pardon people convicted on January 6 (31%), or pardon himself (28%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within the Republican Party, these ideas are more popular, with a majority saying they&nbsp;support&nbsp;Trump using the presidency to pardon himself and investigate his competitors. The majority of 78% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they support Trump deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, 68% would support him repealing and replacing Obamacare, and 62% would support his firing federal workers. Others say they support Trump pardoning himself (54%), pardoning people involved in the January 6 attacks (54%), or initiating investigations into his opponents (51%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-is-behind-the-stability-of-trump-s-support\"><strong>Cosa spiega la stabilit\u00e0 del sostegno a Trump?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In general,&nbsp;three assumptions&nbsp;can be made:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump is benefiting from economic nostalgia among certain demographics, including young people, Latino voters, and working-class Americans. Despite the current administration&#8217;s efforts to highlight positive economic indicators, many of these voters perceive the economy as stronger under Trump, seeing his policies as more beneficial to their interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, Trump&#8217;s favorability is being restored with his radical statements on topics that are painful for Republican voters, such as migration and military aid to warring countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump&#8217;s improved standing can be attributed, among other things, to a quieter campaign, muted media coverage, and general public detachment. Unlike his previous campaigns, Trump&#8217;s current bid for the presidency has attracted relatively less attention, with fewer controversial statements and rallies dominating the news cycle. In addition, fewer Americans follow political news closely compared to previous election cycles, potentially contributing to a more favorable perception of Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-joe-biden-voter-support-and-chances-against-trump\"><strong>Joe Biden &#8211; voter support and chances against Trump<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Biden&#8217;s arrival in power can be called quite&nbsp;successful. He was the main favorite in the 2019 elections, and the Democrats managed to gain huge support in the House of Representatives and the Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Tuttavia, \u00e8 ancora il favorito?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comparing the&nbsp;approval ratings&nbsp;of the two presidents, Biden&#8217;s was 40% in the 164th week of his term, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous week, and Trump&#8217;s approval rating was 44.8% at the same point in his term, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The average approval rating of President Biden for the entire term is 43.9%, with weekly figures ranging from 38.4% to 54.4%. At the time of Trump&#8217;s presidency, his average approval rating for the entire term was 42.2%, with weekly figures ranging from 37.3% to 45.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on&nbsp;recent polls&nbsp;(March 24-26), we can see the following dynamics: approval by Americans of President Joe Biden&#8217;s effectiveness ranges from 40-42%, which is below the&nbsp;50% threshold&nbsp;that usually leads to re-election for incumbent presidents.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"582\" height=\"370\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04304.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23729\" style=\"object-fit:cover;width:620px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04304.png 582w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04304-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 582px) 100vw, 582px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inoltre, Biden registra bassi indici di approvazione nella gestione di cinque questioni chiave che gli Stati Uniti devono affrontare, incluso un nuovo minimo del 28% per l\u2019immigrazione e valori dal 30% al 40% per la situazione in Medio Oriente tra Israele e Hamas, la politica estera, l\u2019economia e la situazione in Ucraina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Approval of how Biden manages the economy has modestly increased by four points among US adults since November, while his ratings on other issues have not changed significantly compared to previous figures in November (and August for immigration). Positive economic news from the United States on several fronts continued during Gallup&#8217;s survey period from February 1 to 20, including low unemployment, low inflation, and record stock market prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democrat voters mostly approve of how Biden manages the economy (75%), the situation in Ukraine (72%), and foreign affairs (69%). Almost a majority of Democrats approve of the president&#8217;s decisions on immigration (55%) and the situation in the Middle East (51%). However, Biden&#8217;s ratings have fallen regarding the situation in the Middle East (-9 points) and in Ukraine (-6 points), as well as regarding immigration (-7 points).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Few Republicans express approval of Biden on any of the issues surveyed, with immigration (3%) and the economy (4%) being the worst, while the situation in the Middle East (17%) and in Ukraine (16%) are the best. Republican ratings of Biden&#8217;s handling of immigration fell by six points since August.&nbsp;A recent Gallup poll&nbsp;showed that immigration, in particular, is a major reason why those who disapprove of Biden negatively assess his performance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"528\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04305.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23730\" style=\"width:671px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04305.png 528w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04305-16x12.png 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ma perch\u00e9 il sostegno degli elettori diminuisce gradualmente e si mantiene a un livello relativamente basso?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un problema per Biden \u00e8 la sua et\u00e0 (81 anni al 20 novembre), oltre alla bassa valutazione da parte del pubblico statunitense del suo operato presidenziale su alcune questioni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regarding the former, this issue serves as an opportunity for opponents to remind voters of Biden&#8217;s poor health and age. &#8220;If you&#8217;re too old to stand trial, you&#8217;re too old to be president,&#8221; said Alex Pfeiffer, one of Donald Trump&#8217;s advisors, after reading a report by Special Prosecutor Robert Gore detailing numerous memory lapses by Joe Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"660\" height=\"391\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23732\" style=\"width:365px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306.jpg 660w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306-600x355.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for dissatisfaction with his policies, in recent years, the following &#8220;claims&#8221; can be highlighted: worsening of the childcare crisis, increased dependence of the US on Russian uranium, attempts to circumvent the Supreme Court&#8217;s decision on student loan forgiveness, inability to effectively address anti-Semitism and provide Ukraine with a clear path to NATO membership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Biden \u00e8 inoltre criticato per l\u2019inazione riguardo a un drone spia cinese rimasto per una settimana nello spazio aereo degli Stati Uniti e per non aver fornito una risposta adeguata agli attacchi di gruppi filo-iraniani contro le truppe statunitensi. Critiche specifiche sono rivolte all\u2019inefficace politica migratoria, che ha portato a un numero record di attraversamenti illegali al confine meridionale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c8 stata dedicata notevole attenzione alla sospensione della fornitura all\u2019Ucraina di armamenti critici per contrastare l\u2019aggressione russa, tra cui carri armati, missili a lungo raggio, velivoli e sistemi di difesa antiaerea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, these factors, along with Republican attempts to tarnish Biden&#8217;s reputation, especially about six months before the elections (such as the&nbsp;attempt to impeach&nbsp;the president), created negative ratings and led to a decline in voter sympathy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-so-what-are-the-chances-of-each-candidate-winning\"><strong>Quali sono dunque le possibilit\u00e0 di vittoria di ciascun candidato?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the Republican primaries, it&#8217;s no surprise that Donald Trump portrays himself as the temporarily disturbed incumbent president. For example, in 2016, his opponents failed in the face of his deliberate (and ideologically unorthodox) proclamations. His control over the Republican Party remains strong, as before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this illusion of authority and the complacency it breeds will be a challenge for the Republican candidate. Electoral realignments, which have pushed some ethnic minority voters away from the Democratic Party, hinder both directions, and Trump&#8217;s legal troubles repel college-educated Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I Democratici contano sugli errori eclatanti del Partito Repubblicano per portare il proprio candidato, con un indice di gradimento quasi uguale a quello di Trump, a un secondo mandato.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u2019altra parte, Joe Biden sta ottenendo qualche successo nel recuperare la sua immagine di un tempo, ma l\u2019inflazione persistente e la guerra a Gaza stanno allontanando da lui, per ragioni diverse, importanti fasce dell\u2019elettorato democratico. La corsa \u00e8 attualmente in grande equilibrio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inoltre, secondo un sondaggio Bloomberg\/Morning Consult condotto il 23 marzo, il presidente Joe Biden ha rafforzato la propria posizione negli Stati in bilico, ottenendo sostegno in sei su sette. Tuttavia, questi Stati sono cos\u00ec volatili che la situazione potrebbe cambiare nei prossimi sette mesi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, at the moment, we can see that both candidates are imperfect and have a list of negative factors that could affect their results in November. Both their ratings are also ambiguous\u2014Trump&#8217;s support percentage is too low for victory, and Biden&#8217;s percentage is insufficient for reelection (in most cases, one needs to have over 50% for that).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, it&#8217;s very difficult to say definitively who will win voter sympathies. Unless there is some too-radical event that could tilt the scales in one direction, making predictions close to the truth will be almost impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-conclusions\"><strong>Conclusioni<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming elections involving candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden are a key moment in American politics that will shape the country&#8217;s leadership trajectory and foreign policy. Thanks to the candidates&#8217; unwavering and, in many ways, polarized positions, the elections promise to be a battleground for the opposing visions of the two largest political forces in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Summing up the analysis of the 2024 election campaign and the chances of the two main contenders for the presidency of the United States, several key conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, despite Donald Trump&#8217;s undeniable leadership among Republican Party candidates and high levels of support among party members, his ratings among the entire electorate remain relatively low. This is due to numerous legal proceedings related to the former president, his often questionable rhetoric, and constant accusations of attempting to obstruct the democratic electoral process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Secondly, although President Biden does not have many scandals associated with his campaign, his support ratings remain relatively low. The reasons for this are the president&#8217;s age and health status, as well as the dissatisfaction of some voters with his policies in various areas, including migration, assistance to Ukraine, and the economic development of the country. However, a certain portion of the population still supports Biden, particularly due to his progressive ideas and the stability he seeks to provide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c8 importante osservare che gli indici preelettorali non sono sempre previsioni accurate dei risultati del voto. La situazione potrebbe cambiare in pochi mesi a causa di eventi imprevisti o di campagne elettorali efficaci dei candidati. Pertanto, sarebbe prematuro trarre conclusioni definitive sul futuro vincitore sulla base dei dati attuali.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, the 2024 presidential race promises to be tense and competitive. Both candidates have strengths and weaknesses, as well as significant opposition in society. The decisive factors could be the effectiveness of election campaigns, the candidates&#8217; ability to unite voters around their ideas, and the avoidance of loud scandals and legal problems. The final choice will remain with the American electorate, who will have the opportunity to evaluate the candidates&#8217; platforms and their plans for the next presidential term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>Dichiarazione di non responsabilit\u00e0: le opinioni, i pensieri e i punti di vista espressi negli articoli pubblicati su questo sito appartengono esclusivamente agli autori e non riflettono necessariamente quelli del Centro per il Dialogo Transatlantico, dei suoi comitati o delle organizzazioni a esso affiliate. Gli articoli intendono stimolare il dialogo e il dibattito e non rappresentano posizioni politiche ufficiali del Centro per il Dialogo Transatlantico n\u00e9 di altre organizzazioni alle quali gli autori possano essere associati.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways This year, the season of primaries has reopened in the USA. Candidates must win or achieve good results in the primaries or caucuses of each state to obtain party delegates and participate in the November elections. Although the primaries will take place over half a year, over 70% of the delegates will be [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":23747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,56],"tags":[],"topic":[111,95],"class_list":["post-23718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-eng-north-america","topic-elections","topic-usa"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Biden and Trump\u2019s 2024 Campaign Strategies | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The pre-election analysis compared Biden\u2019s and Trump\u2019s 2024 campaign strategies, voter coalitions, legal controversies and uncertain electoral prospects.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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