{"id":23180,"date":"2024-03-28T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T08:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=23180"},"modified":"2026-07-04T12:01:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T09:01:48","slug":"improbable-place-of-confrontation-on-the-world-map-latin-america-and-the-caribbean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/it\/2024\/03\/28\/improbable-place-of-confrontation-on-the-world-map-latin-america-and-the-caribbean\/","title":{"rendered":"Un improbabile teatro di confronto sulla mappa mondiale: l\u2019America Latina e i Caraibi"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-by-ruslan-dubovytskyi\"><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"41759\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"Scarica il PDF in inglese\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>Scarica il PDF in inglese<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">2 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Punti chiave<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Battaglia strategica per l\u2019influenza<\/strong>: gli Stati Uniti e la Cina sono i principali attori in competizione per il predominio strategico in America Latina e nei Caraibi; le loro azioni incidono significativamente sulle dinamiche geopolitiche della regione.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>China&#8217;s Economic and Diplomatic Maneuvers<\/strong>: la Cina sta ampliando la propria influenza attraverso priorit\u00e0 economiche, iniziative diplomatiche e investimenti infrastrutturali, mirando a proporsi come alternativa ai tradizionali partenariati occidentali e cercando di isolare Taiwan orientando le relazioni diplomatiche regionali.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risposta e strategia degli Stati Uniti<\/strong>: The U.S. is actively working to counter China&#8217;s expanding influence by recalibrating its approaches towards the region, from sanctions and withdrawal from certain trade agreements, to the launch of partnership initiatives aimed at reinforcing U.S. leadership and promoting democratic stability and economic resilience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Russia&#8217;s Complicating Role<\/strong>: Russia&#8217;s military aggression&nbsp;and economic interactions add another layer of complexity to the region&#8217;s political and economic landscape, influencing the broader geopolitical struggle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Implicazioni per lo sviluppo regionale<\/strong>: l\u2019interazione tra queste grandi potenze solleva interrogativi cruciali sul futuro dell\u2019America Latina e dei Caraibi, in particolare riguardo allo sviluppo sostenibile, all\u2019autonomia e alla capacit\u00e0 di gestire le pressioni globali.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1194\" height=\"414\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-25.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Improbable Place of Confrontation on the World Map: Latin America and the Caribbean\" class=\"wp-image-23182\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-25.png 1194w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-25-600x208.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-25-1024x355.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-25-768x266.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-25-18x6.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1194px) 100vw, 1194px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have always been mouth-watering morsels that the great world powers have fought for throughout history. Suffice it to recall the Big Stick Policy, Theodore&nbsp;Roosevelt\u2019s extended interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il vettore della politica estera latinoamericana dei principali attori regionali, gli Stati Uniti e la Repubblica Popolare Cinese, ha acquisito slancio dall\u2019inizio del nuovo millennio. Altri Stati cercano di tenere il passo con queste due potenze. Tra essi figura la Federazione Russa, sebbene l\u2019aggressione armata del Paese vanifichi tutti i suoi sforzi, causando significativi shock economici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Questo articolo metter\u00e0 in luce il posto dei Paesi dell\u2019America Latina e dei Caraibi nel moderno sistema delle relazioni internazionali, caratterizzato da un\u2019aspra lotta per il predominio, la cui manifestazione \u00e8 la guerra russo-ucraina, che ha ripercussioni in questa regione.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-i-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-as-a-chessboard-what-are-the-world-s-major-powers-playing\"><strong>I. Latin America and the Caribbean as a Chessboard: What are the World\u2019s&nbsp;Major Powers Playing?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dall\u2019avvio della politica commerciale \u00abUscire nel mondo\u00bb (zou chuqu), la Cina si \u00e8 dimostrata un partner alternativo con il quale i Paesi della regione possono ottenere vantaggi in vari ambiti di cooperazione, anzich\u00e9 optare per partenariati gi\u00e0 consolidati con i principali attori delle relazioni internazionali.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-s-diplomatic-efforts-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-lac\"><strong>Gli sforzi diplomatici della Cina in America Latina e nei Caraibi (LAC)<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beijing\u2019s diplomatic&nbsp;initiatives in LAC&nbsp;have helped advance China\u2019s economic priorities, institutionalize&nbsp;its engagement in the region, and garner support in international fora. The analysts, Mark P. Sullivan, Thomas&nbsp;Lum, Ricardo Barrios, and Karla I. Rios, assess that the PRC\u2019s activities in LAC do not appear to be aimed at&nbsp;challenging the United States directly or militarily, yet reflect a global strategy to counter U.S. influence.&nbsp;China\u2019s diplomatic efforts in the region include being an observer at the Organization of American States,&nbsp;a member of the Inter-American Development Bank and the Caribbean Development Bank, and a participant in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dal 2014 la Cina ha cercato di coinvolgere la regione attraverso la Comunit\u00e0 degli Stati Latinoamericani e Caraibici (CELAC), un\u2019organizzazione regionale che esclude gli Stati Uniti e il Canada. Durante la terza riunione ministeriale del Forum Cina-CELAC, nel dicembre 2021, le parti hanno adottato un Piano d\u2019azione congiunto Cina-CELAC (2022-2024) per orientare la cooperazione in ambiti quali politica e sicurezza, economia e infrastrutture. Nel suo pi\u00f9 recente intervento al gruppo, nel gennaio 2023, il leader cinese Xi Jinping ha espresso il sostegno della Cina all\u2019integrazione regionale della LAC e ha definito la CELAC un \u00abpartner chiave per rafforzare la solidariet\u00e0 tra i Paesi in via di sviluppo e promuovere la cooperazione Sud-Sud\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"820\" height=\"458\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-27.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Improbable Place of Confrontation on the World Map: Latin America and the Caribbean\" class=\"wp-image-23184\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-27.png 820w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-27-600x335.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-27-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-27-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Messaggio di Xi Jinping alla CELAC. Fonte: La Pol\u00edtica Online<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of Beijing\u2019s goals in the region appears to be to isolate Taiwan by incentivizing LAC&nbsp;countries to end formal diplomatic ties with the self-governing democracy over which the PRC claims sovereignty and&nbsp;which officially calls itself the \u201cRepublic of China.\u201d Currently, seven governments in LAC (out of 13&nbsp;governments worldwide) maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The remaining 26 maintain formal diplomatic relations with the PRC. Since 2017, five LAC governments have established formal diplomatic relations with the PRC, ending their formal recognition of Taiwan; the country to do this most recently was Honduras in March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-s-economic-expansion-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean\"><strong>China\u2019s&nbsp;Economic Expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China\u2019s economic priorities in LAC include securing access to raw materials and agricultural goods (e.g.,&nbsp;petroleum, soybeans, and minerals including lithium); fostering markets for Chinese goods and services, including in the information and communications technologies (ICT) sector; and partnering with LAC firms to access and jointly develop technology. China also has sought opportunities in LAC for PRC infrastructure firms as a way for these firms both to internationalize and offload excess capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I dati pubblicati dall\u2019Amministrazione generale delle dogane della RPC stimano che nel 2022 il valore complessivo degli scambi Cina-LAC fosse pari a 482.6 miliardi di dollari. In quell\u2019anno, le importazioni cinesi dalla LAC ammontavano a 231.1 miliardi di dollari ed erano costituite principalmente da minerali metalliferi (32%), semi oleosi (18%) e combustibili e oli minerali (12%). Nel frattempo, le esportazioni cinesi verso la regione hanno raggiunto 251.5 miliardi di dollari; tra le principali voci figuravano macchinari e apparecchiature elettriche (23%), macchinari e apparecchi meccanici (14%) e autoveicoli e componenti (8%). La Cina \u00e8 il maggiore partner commerciale di Brasile, Cile, Per\u00f9 e Uruguay e il secondo maggiore partner commerciale di molti altri Paesi. A maggio 2023, la Cina aveva accordi di libero scambio con Cile, Costa Rica, Per\u00f9 ed Ecuador. Il previsto rallentamento della crescita economica cinese nel breve periodo potrebbe tradursi in una minore domanda di esportazioni della LAC da parte della RPC e in una riduzione dei flussi di capitale della RPC verso la regione.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the American Enterprise Institute\u2019s China Global&nbsp;Investment Tracker, Chinese entities invested $148.9 billion in LAC countries between 2005 and 2022, with Brazil accounting for $66 billion (44%) and Peru $25.5 billion (17%). Energy projects accounted for 62% of investments, and metals\/mining accounted for 21%. The database also shows that PRC construction projects in LAC were valued at $68.6 billion over the same period, mainly in the energy (50%) and transportation (30%) sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le banche statali cinesi di credito allo sviluppo (ossia la China Development Bank e la Export-Import Bank of China) hanno assunto numerosi impegni di prestito verso la regione negli ultimi 20 anni. Secondo l\u2019Inter-American Dialogue, dal 2005 al 2022 i Paesi della LAC hanno contratto prestiti per un totale di 136.5 miliardi di dollari, destinati per la maggior parte ai settori dell\u2019energia (66%) e delle infrastrutture (19%). Tra i maggiori debitori, i cui debiti sono espressi in miliardi di dollari, figurano Venezuela (60), Brasile (31), Ecuador (18.2), Argentina (17), Bolivia (3.2), Giamaica (2.1) e Messico (1), mentre il totale degli altri Paesi supera i 4 miliardi di dollari.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"964\" height=\"542\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-28.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Chinese Lending in Latin America and the Caribbean\" class=\"wp-image-23185\" style=\"width:740px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-28.png 964w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-28-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-28-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-28-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 964px) 100vw, 964px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Questi prestiti sono in genere privi delle condizionalit\u00e0 politiche e delle garanzie ambientali associate alle principali istituzioni finanziarie internazionali, spesso contengono una combinazione di condizioni agevolate e commerciali e includono rigorose clausole di riservatezza. Ciononostante, negli ultimi anni i prestiti sono diminuiti per fattori quali la minore domanda della LAC di finanziamenti della RPC, cambiamenti nel modo in cui la RPC gestisce le proprie riserve valutarie, utilizzate per erogare prestiti, e una maggiore avversione al rischio da parte dei finanziatori della RPC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, 22 countries in LAC have signed memoranda related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)\u00a0\u2013\u00a0a\u00a0multifaceted foreign economic policy initiative that aims to expand China\u2019s global economic reach and influence by developing China-centered and &#8211;controlled global infrastructure, transportation, trade, and production networks. As an example of Chinese activity, we can mention the construction of\u00a0a new deep-water port in the city of Chancay, located north of the Peruvian capital, Lima, which will play a strategic role in trade between Asia and LAC.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"778\" height=\"438\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image.jpeg\" alt=\"Cover image for: Improbable Place of Confrontation on the World Map: Latin America and the Caribbean\" class=\"wp-image-23186\" style=\"width:686px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image.jpeg 778w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-600x338.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-18x10.jpeg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 778px) 100vw, 778px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Persone al lavoro nella costruzione del terminale portuale polifunzionale di Chancay, realizzato da un\u2019azienda cinese, Per\u00f9. (AP Photo\/Cesar Barreto)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-washington-s-concerns-and-response\"><strong>Washington\u2019s&nbsp;Concerns and Response<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Donald Trump\u2019s&nbsp;administration has taken a harder approach to building relations with the LAC countries than his predecessors by imposing sanctions on several countries and reducing funding to regional organizations. Such steps could bring certain governments closer to Beijing. Trump also stepped back from trade relations with the region, withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il presidente Biden, che durante il mandato da vicepresidente di Barack Obama ha guidato la politica sull\u2019America Latina, sostiene da tempo che gli Stati Uniti dovrebbero rinnovare il proprio ruolo di leadership nella regione per contrastare una Cina in ascesa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Biden Administration\u2019s National Security Strategy describes China as&nbsp;a strategic competitor&nbsp;but&nbsp;maintains that the Administration will refrain from seeing the world \u201csolely through the prism of strategic competition.\u201d It states that because the Western Hemisphere impacts the United States more than any other region, the Administration will further deepen partnerships in LAC to advance economic resilience, democratic stability, and citizen security. It also vows to help protect LAC from \u201cexternal interference or&nbsp;coercion,&nbsp;including from the PRC.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il Comando meridionale degli Stati Uniti (SOUTHCOM) ha espresso negli ultimi anni preoccupazione per le attivit\u00e0 della Cina nella LAC. \u00ab<em>Stiamo perdendo il nostro vantaggio di posizione in questo emisfero ed \u00e8 necessaria un\u2019azione immediata per invertire questa tendenza<\/em>,\u201d&nbsp;Adm. Craig S. Faller, former head of U.S. Southern Command,&nbsp;argued&nbsp;in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"492\" height=\"304\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-1.jpeg\" alt=\"Cover image for: Improbable Place of Confrontation on the World Map: Latin America and the Caribbean\" class=\"wp-image-23187\" style=\"width:406px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-1.jpeg 492w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-1-18x12.jpeg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 492px) 100vw, 492px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>L\u2019ammiraglio Faller ha testimoniato sulle sfide degli Stati Uniti<\/em><br><em> per la sicurezza nazionale<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its 2023 posture statement asserted that the PRC&nbsp;has \u201cthe capability and intent to eschew&nbsp;international norms, advance its brand of authoritarianism, and amass power and influence at the expense of the existing and emerging democracies in our hemisphere.\u201d According to&nbsp;SOUTHCOM, the PRC is investing in critical infrastructure, including deep-water ports, cyber,&nbsp;and space facilities which \u201ccan have a potential dual use for malign commercial and military activities\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In contrast to such activities of China, the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative was launched with the&nbsp;Group of Seven (G7). The initiative aimed to counter China\u2019s BRI by developing infrastructure in low- and middle-income countries, including Latin America. However, the Biden administration committed only $6 million to B3W in its first year, and it was later renamed the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. At the 2022 Summit of the Americas, Biden promised a range of new economic initiatives, but the allocated funds were not enough to compete with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;paper\u2019s&nbsp;authors, including Mark P. Sullivan, Thomas Lum, Ricardo Barrios, and Karla I. Rios, note that the U.S. warnings about China have been met with some skepticism in LAC and among regional experts.&nbsp;They cite two prevailing views. The first argues that China\u2019s primary interests and influence in the region&nbsp;remain primarily economic and diplomatic. The probability of the PRC creating a military sphere of&nbsp;influence in LAC remains small. The other argues that China\u2019s appeal is limited due to profound political,&nbsp;social, and cultural differences and language barriers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nevertheless, their research reveals concerns about the potential harmful effects of China\u2019s economic engagement on LAC\u2019s development. It claims that Chinese companies do not adhere to international&nbsp;environmental, labor, and safety standards. It is also mentioned that China has exported surveillance technologies that could potentially be used to violate privacy or other rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il loro documento suggerisce inoltre che il sostegno della RPC offra un\u2019ancora di salvezza a leader con precedenti di cattiva amministrazione e aggravi la corruzione. In alcuni Paesi della LAC, gruppi della societ\u00e0 civile, giornalisti e attivisti hanno richiamato l\u2019attenzione sulla corruzione, sulle scarse condizioni di lavoro e sui danni ambientali legati a progetti sostenuti dalla RPC, suscitando opposizione locale. Hanno inoltre richiamato l\u2019attenzione su presunte operazioni di influenza politica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-characteristics-of-competition-in-the-region\"><strong>Le caratteristiche della competizione nella regione<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>China is South America\u2019s top trading partner and a significant source of foreign direct investment&nbsp;and lending in energy and infrastructure, including through its massive Belt and Road Initiative.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ha investito ingenti risorse nel settore spaziale dell\u2019America Latina e ha rafforzato i propri legami militari con diversi Paesi, in particolare il Venezuela.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policymakers in Washington are pursuing new trade and investment avenues to bolster U.S.&nbsp;leadership in the region and push back against Beijing\u2019s influence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-ii-the-struggle-of-the-red-dragon-for-a-place-under-the-southern-sun\">II. <strong>La lotta del \u00abDrago Rosso\u00bb per un posto sotto il sole del Sud<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is worth considering&nbsp;the Survey of Opinion Leaders: Assessments of China\u2019s Role in Latin America and the Caribbean to compare the influence of global actors in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the opinion leaders surveyed, on average, the top priority Latin American and Caribbean countries should have with China is trade, followed by foreign direct investment and financial ties. Last in order of priority would be cooperation in international security, and there is also minimal support for engagement around multilateral cooperation and human rights. Notably, this order of priorities coincides with that expressed regarding relations with the United States. This would indicate that opinion leaders&nbsp;consider that the region\u2019s priorities in its bilateral relations with great powers do not change drasticallywhether we focus on relations with Washington or Beijing. The only statistically significant difference concerns international security: in the case of the United States, international security is, on average, higher than that assigned to relations with China (although it is still the last priority).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regarding the perceived influence of China in Latin America and the Caribbean, almost 80% of survey respondents consider this influence high, while less than 5% consider it low. Only the United States is seen as having a higher influence than the Asian giant. Washington is said to have the most influence in the region, followed by Beijing, Madrid, and Moscow. However, opinion leaders vary in their assessment of whether the influence exerted in the area by Beijing is positive. Compared to other powers, opinion leaders&nbsp;consider China\u2019s influence to be, on average, the second most negative, behind only Russian influence in&nbsp;the region. German, Japanese, and Spanish influences are considered to have, on average, the most positive influence in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China\u2019s influence appears not to be the result of the country\u2019s media diplomacy. Indeed, respondents consider the Asian giant\u2019s media influence in the region, measured by China Global Television Network\u2019s&nbsp;(CGTN) influence, to be very low. Fewer than 4% consider this influence high or very high, while 41% consider it low and 31% very low. Thus, nearly three-quarters of survey respondents believe the Chinese media to have a low or very low influence in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"602\" height=\"258\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-29.png\" alt=\"Cover image for: Improbable Place of Confrontation on the World Map: Latin America and the Caribbean\" class=\"wp-image-23188\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-29.png 602w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-29-600x257.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-29-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The above data contrasts with the perception of the influence of US media diplomacy in the region, where more than 65% of the opinion leaders agree that&nbsp;CNN\u2019s&nbsp;influence is high or very high. Compared with four other extra-regional powers and Venezuela with Telesur, the opinion leaders perceive Chinese media diplomacy as generating the least influence in the region. Thus, CGTN is perceived as having less impact than CNN, BBC, Telesur, RT and FR24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, it is important to mention Russia, China\u2019s ally. According to an October 2023 report by&nbsp;the United States Institute of Peace, Actualidad RT (Russia Today in Spanish) and Sputnik Mundo are the region&#8217;s key purveyors of Russian state media. Hernandez-Roy, who is deputy director and senior fellow at the CSIS Americas Program, said these two media organizations have about 32 million regular listeners in Latin America, which has 667 million inhabitants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nonetheless, the&nbsp;PRC\u2019s soft power&nbsp;is bolstered by substantial investment in people-to-people diplomacy, including not only 39 Confucius Institutes in the region but also Hanban-funded scholarships and lavish paid trips for leading LAC academics, politicians, journalists, and other key personnel whom the PRC seeks to influence in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, it is important to mention Russia, China\u2019s ally. According to an October 2023&nbsp;report by the United States Institute of Peace, Actualidad RT (Russia Today in Spanish) and Sputnik Mundo are the region&#8217;s key purveyors of Russian state media. Hernandez-Roy, who is deputy director and senior fellow at the CSIS Americas Program, said these two media organizations have about 32 million regular listeners in Latin America, which has 667 million inhabitants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-iii-what-economic-changes-does-russia-s-military-aggression-against-ukraine-cause-in-the-region\"><strong>III. What Economic Changes Does Russia\u2019s&nbsp;Military Aggression Against Ukraine Cause in the Region?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tra i Paesi latinoamericani e l\u2019Ucraina, Paese europeo che nel 21\u00b0 secolo ha subito un\u2019aggressione militare senza precedenti da parte della Russia, vi sono migliaia di chilometri di distanza. Questa posizione geografica contribuisce a tenerli lontani dal teatro delle operazioni sviluppatosi nell\u2019Europa orientale. Tuttavia, questa guerra ha un impatto indiretto sull\u2019economia latinoamericana, sebbene Ucraina e Russia non siano i principali partner commerciali della maggior parte dei Paesi della regione.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The war in Ukraine&nbsp;significantly expands disruptions to primary production sectors (oil, gas, aluminum, and grains) and industrial sectors that produce inputs widely used in agriculture, such as fertilizers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I principali effetti commerciali che il conflitto ha avuto nella regione sono gli aumenti dei prezzi dell\u2019energia (petrolio e gas), dei prodotti minerari (carbone, rame e nichel), degli alimenti (grano, mais e oli) e dei fertilizzanti, dovuti alla rilevante posizione della Federazione Russa e dell\u2019Ucraina nella produzione e nel commercio mondiale di tali prodotti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La guerra attuale ha quindi accentuato la tendenza verso una maggiore regionalizzazione del commercio e della produzione, osservata ormai da alcuni anni a livello globale. La regione non pu\u00f2 sottrarsi a questa tendenza, per cui i Paesi cercano una maggiore autonomia strategica nell\u2019approvvigionamento di prodotti e input critici. La situazione costituisce dunque una nuova opportunit\u00e0 per rivitalizzare il progetto di integrazione regionale, ponendo al centro la creazione di catene produttive intraregionali che riducano l\u2019eccessiva dipendenza da fornitori esterni alla regione.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-conclusion\"><strong>Conclusione<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In America Latina e nei Caraibi, la competizione tra gli Stati Uniti e la Cina non \u00e8 pari a quella che si osserva attualmente nell\u2019Indo-Pacifico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, Chinese diplomacy focuses on advancing Beijing\u2019s interests, particularly the \u201cone China\u201d&nbsp;policy, using regional organizations to establish dialogue to form the image of a reliable partner. The injection of funds into the economies of the countries is the basis of the cooperation, which guaranteed the entry of Communist China among the three largest trading partners in the region. Still, such measures contribute to an increase in dependence and the lack of significant scientific, technological and innovative development, which in turn leads to the reprimarization and deindustrialization of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, the situation is aggravated by Russia\u2019s armed aggression, which has increased political and&nbsp;socio-economic risks. The question of strengthening regional cooperation to minimize the possible consequences of the emergence of \u201cblack swans\u201d on a global scale in the future was raised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gli Stati Uniti non cederanno terreno in questa regione, che \u00e8 tradizionalmente considerata la loro zona d\u2019influenza e presenta un importante collo di bottiglia infrastrutturale. I funzionari del governo degli Stati Uniti percepiscono la crescente minaccia cinese. Stanno lanciando iniziative per preservare la propria posizione e la visione, radicata tra gli abitanti della LAC, degli Stati Uniti come Paese democratico di successo con un\u2019economia sviluppata.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pertanto, il discorso politico in questa regione \u00e8 influenzato da grandi attori quali gli Stati Uniti o la Cina, che competono per aumentare o proteggere la propria influenza; le autorit\u00e0 ucraine dovrebbero quindi tenere conto di tali circostanze nell\u2019elaborare e attuare misure in questa regione.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>Avvertenza: le opinioni, i pensieri e i punti di vista espressi negli articoli pubblicati su questo sito appartengono esclusivamente agli autori e non riflettono necessariamente quelli del Centro per il Dialogo Transatlantico, dei suoi comitati o delle organizzazioni a esso affiliate. Gli articoli intendono stimolare il dialogo e il dibattito e non rappresentano posizioni politiche ufficiali del Centro per il Dialogo Transatlantico n\u00e9 di altre organizzazioni alle quali gli autori possano essere associati<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have always been mouth-watering morsels that the great world powers have fought for throughout history. Suffice it to recall the Big Stick Policy, Theodore&nbsp;Roosevelt\u2019s extended interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. Latin American foreign policy vector of the main regional actors, the United States and the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":23189,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"[]"},"categories":[13,57],"tags":[],"topic":[85,90,113,95],"class_list":["post-23180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-eng-latin-america-caribbean","topic-china","topic-economy","topic-latin-america","topic-usa"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Great-Power Competition in Latin America | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. counteracts China\u2019s growing influence in Latin America with strategic partnerships, while Russia\u2019s presence complicates regional development 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