{"id":18965,"date":"2023-08-23T13:20:14","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T10:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=18965"},"modified":"2025-08-05T13:51:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T10:51:25","slug":"navigating-geopolitical-currents-evolving-policies-in-the-black-sea-region-amidst-the-russo-ukrainian-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/it\/2023\/08\/23\/navigating-geopolitical-currents-evolving-policies-in-the-black-sea-region-amidst-the-russo-ukrainian-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Orientarsi tra le correnti geopolitiche: l'evoluzione delle politiche nella regione del Mar Nero durante la guerra russo-ucraina"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"37342\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Attendere, per favore\u2026\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"Scarica il PDF in inglese\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>Scarica il PDF in inglese<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">3 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Punti chiave<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Deterioramento della sicurezza nella regione<\/strong>: Russian full-scale invasion, attacks on Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure, and an increase in NATO&#8217;s military mobility affected the security in the region.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Crisi politica bulgara:<\/strong> Bulgaria is one of the most influenced countries by Russia in the EU. The full-scale invasion became one of the reasons for the country&#8217;s 2022-2023 political crisis. Only 34% of Bulgarians perceive Russia as a threat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Il gioco di mediazione della T\u00fcrkiye: <\/strong>La T\u00fcrkiye, attualmente in una prolungata crisi economica, d\u00e0 priorit\u00e0 alla propria stabilit\u00e0 e crescita economica. La T\u00fcrkiye fornisce contemporaneamente armi all'Ucraina e prosegue il commercio senza restrizioni con la Russia. Sfrutta la propria posizione geografica unica tra NATO e Asia e il controllo degli stretti del Mar Nero per mantenere l'equilibrio tra Occidente e Russia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>La Romania sul versante occidentale:&nbsp;<\/strong>L'influenza russa sulla Romania \u00e8 tra le pi\u00f9 basse della regione. La crisi energetica in Europa accresce la rilevanza dell'idea di un hub energetico in Romania. La fiducia pubblica nel partenariato con la NATO \u00e8 in costante crescita.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1238\" height=\"431\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31.png 1238w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-600x209.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-1024x356.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-768x267.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-18x6.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1238px) 100vw, 1238px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Situata al crocevia tra Asia ed Europa, la regione del Mar Nero \u00e8 una delle zone commerciali pi\u00f9 promettenti. Gli Stati rivieraschi comprendono Ucraina, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, T\u00fcrkiye, Georgia e Federazione Russa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The region is quite fragmented due to historical tensions over territories and cultural distinctions. The fact of being divided between two hostile blocks during the Cold War left a trace on countries&#8217; political orientation, and even today the competing interests of NATO and Russia influence each country&#8217;s identity to varying degrees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Poich\u00e9 la regione manca di coesione, gli Stati rivieraschi affrontano queste e molte altre sfide separatamente, ciascuno a modo proprio. Pertanto, quando \u00e8 iniziata l'invasione su vasta scala, le \u00e9lite politiche si sono trovate a un bivio, spinte a chiarire le proprie posizioni su una serie di questioni. Fra queste, il rapporto con la Russia e la sua presenza nella regione hanno assunto un ruolo centrale. In questo articolo analizziamo come sono cambiate le politiche interne di T\u00fcrkiye, Bulgaria e Romania e quali siano le prospettive delle loro politiche estere alla luce degli sviluppi recenti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-regional-dynamics-and-security-in-the-black-sea-region\">Dinamiche regionali e sicurezza nella regione del Mar Nero<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-f9faaab3 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Region&#8217;s economic ties can be characterized by the prevalence of bilateral treaties as they provide more space for agreement in terms of differences in economic and political models. This approach weakens effective interaction within initiatives, which encompasses the whole region (mainly Black Sea Economic Cooperation &#8211; BSEC).&nbsp; Besides, the EU membership of several regional countries increases market <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato-pa.int\/download-file?filename=\/sites\/default\/files\/2020-12\/035%20ESCTD%2020%20E%20rev%202%20fin%20-%20THE%20BLACK%20SEA%20REGION%20ECONOMIC%20AND%20GEO%20POLITICAL%20TENSIONS.pdf\">concorrenza<\/a><strong>.&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tuttavia, nonostante l'apparente riluttanza ad approfondire i legami regionali, il mare condiviso unisce tutti i Paesi, sottolineandone la dipendenza dalla sicurezza del Mar Nero. Inutile dire che l'invasione su vasta scala lanciata dalla Russia ha segnato il <strong>deterioramento della sicurezza regionale<\/strong>. Gli attacchi all'Ucraina hanno compromesso la libert\u00e0 di navigazione nel Mar Nero, messo sotto pressione la capacit\u00e0 di esportazione del grano e reso possibile osservare esplosioni e attivit\u00e0 missilistiche vicino ai confini della NATO. In particolare, una recente serie di attacchi russi con droni contro elevatori di grano e porti ucraini si svolge pericolosamente vicino alla Romania. Inoltre, la distruzione della diga di Kakhovka da parte delle forze russe nell'Ucraina meridionale ha suscitato timori per il possibile disprezzo delle conseguenze ambientali nel perseguimento di obiettivi militari nella regione colpita.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s hard to overestimate the impact of the war on the region. The reduction in the number of available Ukrainian ports and the ban on access to EU ports for Russian vessels led to the decline of the maritime industry. In contrast, the importance of other regional states grew amid the success of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the EU\u2019s diversification of energy imports, emphasizing the vitality of the Black Sea as a transit corridor. The desire to devise new trade routes bypassing Russia has given impetus to the trend of increasing trade flows between Europe and Asia. Moreover, the increase in NATO&#8217;s military mobility in the Black Sea contributes to the militarization of the region and tensions between the states (e.g., Russia&#8217;s damage to the American MQ-9 Reaper drone). Despite the fact that all the states of the region are under the influence of the consequences of the war, the internal politics of each country demonstrates a unique reaction to large-scale geopolitical changes due to its background of interaction with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1048\" height=\"519\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18968\" style=\"object-fit:contain;width:733px;height:363px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32.png 1048w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-600x297.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-1024x507.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1048px) 100vw, 1048px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-from-east-to-west-tracing-bulgaria-s-political-journey-amidst-russian-influence\">From East to West: Tracing Bulgaria&#8217;s Political Journey Amidst Russian Influence<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-adff9063 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Bulgaria \u00e8 uno dei Paesi dell'UE pi\u00f9 influenzati dalla Russia. Una serie di ragioni ha determinato una situazione tanto difficile. La Bulgaria dipendeva fortemente dalle importazioni di gas e petrolio dalla Russia (nel 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/chart\/26768\/dependence-on-russian-gas-by-european-country\/\">il 77% del gas importato<\/a> was Russian). This fact, like in many cases of other countries, determined Russia\u2019s successful political penetration in Sofia. Bulgaria is one of the most corrupt countries in the EU, and Russia&#8217;s influence can be spotted in the judicial and other branches of government. Besides, the historical attachment of Bulgaria to Russia is one of the strongest within the former Eastern Bloc. During the Cold War, Bulgaria was one of the most trusted allies of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.populismstudies.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Download-Report-on-Bulgaria.pdf\">Unione Sovietica<\/a>. <br>La guerra in Ucraina ha reso attuale la questione dell'eccessiva influenza russa e ha contribuito al deterioramento della stabilit\u00e0 politica interna, culminato nella crisi politica del 2022-2023. La crescente volatilit\u00e0, dovuta all'incapacit\u00e0 di formare un governo, \u00e8 stata alimentata, tra l'altro, da opinioni contrastanti sulla <a href=\"http:\/\/prismua.org\/en\/octopus_bulgaria\/\">portata del sostegno<\/a> da fornire all'Ucraina e su come trattare con la Russia. La gravit\u00e0 della situazione era sottolineata dal fatto che la Bulgaria \u00e8 una repubblica parlamentare. Infine, dopo il quinto tentativo, i due principali partiti alle elezioni, GERB-SDS e We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria, hanno raggiunto <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurointegration.com.ua\/articles\/2023\/05\/24\/7162338\/\">un accordo<\/a>, istituendo per\u00f2, anzich\u00e9 una coalizione, una rotazione dei governi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized is-style-default\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"752\" height=\"423\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18969\" style=\"width:416px;height:234px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33.png 752w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 752px) 100vw, 752px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Borys Boyko, leader del partito politico GERB<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Se il governo non fosse stato nuovamente formato, sarebbe aumentata la probabilit\u00e0 che forze favorevoli alla Russia entrassero nella coalizione di governo. L'ingresso di tali partiti avrebbe complicato l'esportazione di armi verso l'Ucraina. Esistono gi\u00e0 precedenti di partiti filorussi che hanno ostacolato decisioni vantaggiose per l'Ucraina. In particolare, anche la decisione della Bulgaria di inviare aiuti militari all'Ucraina segretamente, anzich\u00e9 apertamente, \u00e8 stata provocata dalla presenza di forze filorusse nella coalizione.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fac2cdea wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fac2cdea wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result of the last election, European-oriented forces have assumed power. However, the last turbulent year of political struggle didn\u2019t pass without a trace for voters. The inability of GERB-SDS and We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (whose programs are similar and both pro-western) to form a government due to interparty squabbles has already led to certain disappointment in the people. Political uncertainty obstructed the decision-making process necessary to mitigate the domestic economic crisis. Amid the inability of pro-western parties to cooperate, the ratings of the openly pro-Putin party &#8220;Renaissance&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/europe-poll-of-polls\/bulgaria\/\">grew<\/a>. The crisis even reached the point when the &#8220;Renaissance&#8221; rose to third place during the last election poll (compared to a 2% rating in the 2021 general election).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In questo contesto, l'opinione pubblica nei confronti dell'Ucraina e dell'Occidente \u00e8 peggiorata. Quasi la met\u00e0 degli intervistati (49%) nel 2023 ha dichiarato che le sanzioni contro la Russia sono inefficaci, mentre solo il 44% ha attribuito alla Russia la colpa di aver scatenato la guerra (contro il 50% nel 2022). Il sostegno all'adesione alla NATO \u00e8 sempre stato basso rispetto al resto dell'Europa centrale e orientale. Oggi i sondaggi mostrano che <strong>solo il 34%<\/strong> dei bulgari percepisce la Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globsec.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2023-05\/GLOBSEC%20TRENDS%202023.pdf\">come una minaccia<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s important to note that the latest political crisis in Bulgaria is far from being exclusively a confrontation between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces. One of the characteristic features of Bulgarian politics after the end of the Cold War became \u201cfluctuation\u201d between the West and Russia. Borys Boyko, three times Prime Minister of Bulgaria, was following the politics of compromising between pro-EU and pro-Russian attitudes. Some time should pass to see whether the new government will also stick to such a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurointegration.com.ua\/rus\/news\/2021\/12\/10\/7131440\/\">politica<\/a>, alla luce dei risultati degli ultimi sondaggi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"488\" height=\"264\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-34.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18972\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-34.png 488w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-34-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Kirill Petkov e Asen Vaskov, leader del partito politico<\/em><br><em> We Continue the Change<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ciononostante, la vittoria dei partiti proeuropei rappresenta una svolta e sta dando frutti. Finora, i recenti cambiamenti politici in Bulgaria hanno avuto un effetto positivo sull'assistenza all'Ucraina. In effetti, la recente decisione di Sofia di inviare armi direttamente all'Ucraina \u00e8 il primo caso ufficiale di esportazione di armi dal 2022. Pertanto, le prospettive delle nuove decisioni governative sono promettenti per Kyiv. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In sintesi, il nuovo modus vivendi riduce l'impatto dei partiti filorussi nel governo, senza tuttavia eliminarlo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-turkiye-s-delicate-balancing-act-a-mediation-game-for-the-sake-of-national-interests\">Il delicato equilibrio della T\u00fcrkiye: un gioco di mediazione per gli interessi nazionali<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La posizione della T\u00fcrkiye sulla guerra russo-ucraina resta duplice: pur continuando il commercio senza restrizioni con la Russia, la T\u00fcrkiye fornisce all'Ucraina importanti <a href=\"https:\/\/www.populismstudies.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Download-Report-on-Turkey.pdf\">armi<\/a>. Since the beginning of the invasion, President Erdo\u011fan has stated multiple times about a positive relationship between T\u00fcrkiye and Russia and that he does not intend to take sides in this conflict. The declared attitude of \u201csatisfying the needs of all parties involved\u201d is caused by the peculiarities of the country&#8217;s domestic and foreign policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La guerra in Ucraina ha coinciso con la prolungata crisi economica in T\u00fcrkiye. Sullo sfondo della crisi economica, le autorit\u00e0 turche cercano il modo pi\u00f9 vantaggioso per mantenere il livello di consenso tra la popolazione. Secondo un sondaggio svolto alla vigilia delle elezioni presidenziali, i turchi sono pi\u00f9 preoccupati per le difficolt\u00e0 economiche che per la guerra in Ucraina. Pertanto, i leader della T\u00fcrkiye ritengono auspicabile dare priorit\u00e0 alla stabilit\u00e0 economica e alla <a href=\"https:\/\/mind.ua\/en\/publications\/20257242-turkish-rift-how-will-erdoand287ans-victory-or-defeat-in-the-presidential-race-affect-ukraine%20https:\/tradingeconomics.com\/turkey\/imports-by-country\">crescita<\/a>. A quanto pare, interrompere i legami economici con la Russia (il maggiore importatore per Ankara) pur dipendendo dal petrolio e dal gas russi importati non \u00e8 il modo per migliorare la situazione interna. Inoltre, la T\u00fcrkiye comprende pienamente la propria posizione unica tra NATO e Asia, la distanza dal mondo arabo e il valore del controllo dei principali stretti del Mar Nero, che offre ad Ankara la possibilit\u00e0 di seguire una propria via intermedia. Indubbiamente, un simile approccio alla politica estera influenza l'opinione pubblica in T\u00fcrkiye. La precedente retorica ostile di Erdo\u011fan verso l'Occidente ha portato all' <strong>aumento dei sentimenti<\/strong> <strong>verso la Russia<\/strong> tra la <a href=\"https:\/\/pomed.org\/publication\/why-turkish-citizens-blame-the-united-states-for-ukraine-war\/\">popolazione<\/a>. In un sondaggio del 2023 sull'atteggiamento verso la Russia, il 14% ha dichiarato che la Russia \u00e8 un alleato, mentre la quota maggiore dei turchi (55%) considerava Mosca un <a href=\"https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/publication\/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine\">partner<\/a>. Inoltre, sebbene la percezione degli Stati Uniti come minaccia stesse gradualmente diminuendo (42% nel 2022 rispetto al 64% nel 2019), nel 2022 pi\u00f9 persone erano ostili agli Stati Uniti che alla Russia (42% contro <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khas.edu.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/TDP_2022_ENG_FINAL_07.09.22.pdf\">30,5%<\/a><strong>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18977\" style=\"width:737px;height:415px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35.png 1000w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having fewer disputes with Moscow and occasionally dissenting with the West, Ankara seems to be a perfect match to fulfill the role of broker in what Russia calls \u201cWest-Russia confrontation\u201d. However, to safeguard its balancing position, T\u00fcrkiye should prove its appropriateness to perform awaited tasks. Such an approach to foreign policy requires tangible results of mediation efforts. Hence, Turkiye&#8217;s notable achievements in mediation, exemplified by the successful organization of the Grain Deal Initiative and a fruitful exchange of prisoners of war, stand as vital pillars of its foreign policy strategy. Erdo\u011fan\u2019s \u201cspecial relationship\u201d with Putin is another essential aspect of the strategy, as it enables the use of geopolitical advantages for T\u00fcrkiye. Thus, Erdo\u011fan\u2019s \u201cspecial relationship\u201d with Putin is essential for the state\u2019s foreign policy, enabling the use of its geopolitical advantages. That&#8217;s why when Russia declared its exit from the Grain Deal, it dealt the blow to Ankara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for the prospects, T\u00fcrkiye is likely to continue its ambiguous politics, especially since the West is not pressing that hard on its officials regarding the imposition of sanctions. One of the most possible reasons why its politics might change is the tightening of the West&#8217;s position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-unhealed-wounds-romania-s-stalwart-support-for-ukraine-s-integrity\"><strong>Unhealed Wounds: Romania&#8217;s Stalwart Support for Ukraine&#8217;s Integrity<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nonostante le controversie sui confini di Stato ucraino-romeni, il cui culmine si \u00e8 verificato nel primo decennio del XXI secolo, la Romania ha sostenuto l'integrit\u00e0 dell'Ucraina e ha ufficialmente respinto la proposta russa <a href=\"https:\/\/lb.ua\/world\/2018\/09\/07\/406861_temni_chasi_vidnosinah.html\">di dividere l'Ucraina<\/a>. Le relazioni tra Mosca e Bucarest sono oscurate dalla perdita della regione della Bessarabia durante la Seconda guerra mondiale e dalla sua annessione all'Unione Sovietica. La questione non \u00e8 stata risolta con la dichiarazione d'indipendenza della Moldova. In effetti, la lotta per l'influenza \u00e8 continuata con un'unica eccezione: la Russia usa la forza per imporre il proprio ordine in Moldova. Sebbene l'unificazione di Moldova e Romania emerga occasionalmente come idea nella retorica politica romena, non \u00e8 stata intrapresa alcuna azione per avviarla. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ci\u00f2 \u00e8 dovuto non solo al fatto che la Romania si attiene alla condotta richiesta dall'appartenenza all'UE, ma anche al fatto che una simile unione potrebbe provocare un nuovo conflitto con la Russia. Dopo che la Transnistria, sostenuta dai russi, si \u00e8 dichiarata formalmente sovrana rispetto alla Moldova, il potenziale di questo conflitto congelato incombe sulla Romania come una spada di Damocle. <a href=\"https:\/\/cms.law\/en\/media\/international\/files\/publications\/publications\/romania-as-an-energy-hub-in-southeastern-europe-loredana-mihailescu-0.3-mb\">Frammentata,<\/a> la Moldova multinazionale pu\u00f2 diventare facile preda dei russi, consentendo loro di estendere ancora di pi\u00f9 la propria influenza e portando instabilit\u00e0 nella regione. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Russia&#8217;s influence<\/strong> in Romania \u00e8 stata <strong>tra le pi\u00f9 basse della regione<\/strong>. Moscow lacks typical instruments to impose its order: Russian ethnic minorities are not numerous, and corruption and related pro-Russian political parties are not dominant issues of the domestic agenda. What&#8217;s more important, Romania is one of the most independent states in terms of gas import. The energy crisis in Europe encouraged the increase of exploration of energy resources in the EU countries, and the idea of Romania becoming an energy hub is gaining relevance. After all, it is Romania that exports gas to Moldova to decrease Chi\u0219in\u0103u\u2019s overreliance on Russia\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/newdirection.online\/2018-publications-pdf\/ND-Report-RomaniaRussia-preview%28low-res%29.pdf\">risorse<\/a><strong>. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Romania considera la NATO il <strong>miglior garante della propria integrit\u00e0<\/strong>. I sondaggi recenti mostrano che la fiducia pubblica nel partenariato con la NATO cresce costantemente (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globsec.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2023-05\/GLOBSEC%20TRENDS%202023.pdf\">89%<\/a> nel 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1010\" height=\"568\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18978\" style=\"width:681px;height:383px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36.png 1010w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1010px) 100vw, 1010px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dagli anni Novanta, avendo scelto la via del riavvicinamento alla NATO, la Romania ha perseguito la democrazia e l'unit\u00e0 transatlantica. L'invasione russa ha solo approfondito ulteriormente queste relazioni. In occasione di 25 anni di partenariato strategico tra Romania e Stati Uniti, i diplomatici di entrambe le parti ne hanno valutato gli effetti come altamente <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/the-united-states-and-romania-strategic-partners-for-25-years\/\">benefici<\/a>. Bucharest\u2019s recent joining G7 joint declaration of support for Ukraine is a direct consequence of this trend.&nbsp; Hence, Romania&#8217;s support for Ukraine will continue to be one of the strongest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-conclusion\"><strong>Conclusione<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By waging war, Russia attracted the attention of the world to the region, the extent of which was previously unimaginable. Before the war, the region was not viewed as strategic, even for NATO. Hostilities against Ukraine led to NATO adopting a course for strengthening military presence in the region &#8211; something Russia claimed to be opposed to before waging the war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In tutti i Paesi della regione sono in corso cambiamenti nell'atteggiamento verso la Russia e nelle valutazioni sulla propria sicurezza. Nella maggior parte dei casi, l'influenza russa diminuisce gradualmente, sebbene i sondaggi mostrino che la minaccia \u00e8 ben lungi dall'essere stata del tutto eliminata.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Con i risultati definitivi delle elezioni, il nuovo governo bulgaro sembra pronto a continuare a combattere la corruzione prestando al contempo sufficiente attenzione all'opposizione. La politica equilibrata della T\u00fcrkiye fa parte del suo modo di sfruttare le caratteristiche geopolitiche e quindi \u00e8 meno probabile che cambi considerevolmente. Tra i Paesi analizzati, la Romania \u00e8 la pi\u00f9 ostile alla Russia. I tentativi della Russia di ottenere un maggiore controllo su Chi\u0219in\u0103u rappresentano una minaccia per Bucarest. Ma quanto pi\u00f9 la Russia cerca di modificare l'equilibrio di potere nella regione, tanto pi\u00f9 la Romania si avvicina alla NATO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La guerra in Ucraina ha spinto gli Stati rivieraschi a rivedere il proprio atteggiamento verso la politica estera e le questioni interne. Il Mar Nero continua ad aprire opportunit\u00e0 per gli Stati della regione, che si tratti della rotta dell'Iniziativa sui cereali o dei giacimenti di gas. In tempi turbolenti, gli Stati sono divenuti pi\u00f9 adattabili, ma non sono ancora pienamente pronti a un cambiamento radicale. Pertanto, la guerra non ha portato a un grande mutamento geopolitico nella politica regionale: come prima reazione, il conflitto ha stimolato un approfondimento delle politiche gi\u00e0 scelte, i cui risultati dobbiamo ancora vedere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>Avvertenza: le opinioni, i pensieri e i giudizi espressi negli articoli pubblicati su questo sito appartengono esclusivamente agli autori e non necessariamente al Centro per il Dialogo Transatlantico, ai suoi comitati o alle organizzazioni a esso affiliate. Gli articoli mirano a stimolare il dialogo e la discussione e non rappresentano posizioni politiche ufficiali del Centro per il Dialogo Transatlantico n\u00e9 di altre organizzazioni alle quali gli autori possano essere associati.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, the Black Sea region is one of the most promising trade zones. The littoral states include Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, T\u00fcrkiye, Georgia, and the Russian Federation. The region is quite fragmented due to historical tensions over territories and cultural distinctions. The fact of being divided [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":19003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,13,58],"tags":[],"topic":[93,110,84,87,86,92],"class_list":["post-18965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eng-central-eastern-europe","category-en-analyses","category-eng-western-europe","topic-geopolitics","topic-nato","topic-russia","topic-security","topic-ukraine","topic-war"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Black Sea Security Amid Russia\u2019s War on Ukraine | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Russia\u2019s invasion destabilized Black Sea security as Bulgaria faced political crisis, T\u00fcrkiye balanced between sides and Romania deepened 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