{"id":5425,"date":"2022-06-16T18:48:41","date_gmt":"2022-06-16T15:48:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=5425"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:41:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:41:50","slug":"the-us-revises-its-past-miscalculations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2022\/06\/16\/the-us-revises-its-past-miscalculations\/","title":{"rendered":"Les \u00c9tats-Unis revoient leurs erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation pass\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De r\u00e9centes informations des m\u00e9dias am\u00e9ricains ont fait \u00e9tat d\u2019une lettre confidentielle de la commission s\u00e9natoriale du renseignement adress\u00e9e au Bureau du directeur du renseignement national, au D\u00e9partement de la d\u00e9fense et \u00e0 la CIA. Les discussions sur cette question ont mis en lumi\u00e8re les <strong>erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation commises par la communaut\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine du renseignement dans l\u2019\u00e9valuation des capacit\u00e9s de l\u2019Afghanistan et de l\u2019Ukraine \u00e0 contrer les agressions des talibans et de la Russie<\/strong>, respectivement. La r\u00e9flexion sur ces questions, ainsi qu\u2019une analyse approfondie de la m\u00e9thodologie et des conclusions tir\u00e9es dans ces cas, offrent l\u2019occasion de corriger les erreurs pass\u00e9es, d\u2019en r\u00e9duire les cons\u00e9quences et de les \u00e9viter \u00e0 l\u2019avenir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"420\" height=\"240\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-3.png 420w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-3-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 420px) 100vw, 420px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ce qui avait commenc\u00e9 comme une op\u00e9ration visant \u00e0 endiguer les foyers terroristes en Afghanistan est rapidement devenu la plus longue guerre \u00e0 laquelle<\/strong> les \u00c9tats-Unis aient particip\u00e9 de toute leur histoire. Selon certaines estimations parmi les plus modestes, au cours de deux d\u00e9cennies d\u2019implication dans les affaires locales, les Am\u00e9ricains ont d\u00e9pens\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 deux mille milliards de dollars, dont au moins 800 milliards en co\u00fbts directs de guerre et 85 milliards pour entra\u00eener l\u2019arm\u00e9e afghane. Le plan initial consistait \u00e0 fournir une aide suffisante au gouvernement et aux forces arm\u00e9es afghanes jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019ils soient capables de tenir bon par eux-m\u00eames. L\u2019establishment am\u00e9ricain \u00e9tait certain que cet objectif serait atteint. Au moment du retrait du pays, les institutions de renseignement \u00e9taient convaincues qu\u2019apr\u00e8s des ann\u00e9es d\u2019entra\u00eenement intensif et de financement, l\u2019arm\u00e9e afghane serait capable de vaincre les forces talibanes, incapables de mener des op\u00e9rations de grande ampleur et d\u00e9pourvues d\u2019\u00e9quipements de qualit\u00e9. Elles se sont toutefois tromp\u00e9es. <strong>L\u2019Afghanistan est tomb\u00e9 aux mains des talibans<\/strong> malgr\u00e9 tous les efforts ant\u00e9rieurs, en l\u2019espace de quelques semaines de reprise des hostilit\u00e9s actives, alors que les soldats am\u00e9ricains quittaient encore leurs bases afghanes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cons\u00e9quences de la<strong> mauvaise appr\u00e9ciation qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 un retrait pr\u00e9cipit\u00e9 d\u2019Afghanistan ont port\u00e9 un coup s\u00e9v\u00e8re aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/strong> Beaucoup y ont vu une d\u00e9monstration de faiblesse et d\u2019incapacit\u00e9 \u00e0 obtenir les r\u00e9sultats souhait\u00e9s, susceptible de faire douter de la capacit\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 conserver son emprise sur la politique mondiale et ayant port\u00e9 atteinte \u00e0 l\u2019image et \u00e0 la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 des \u00c9tats-Unis aupr\u00e8s de leurs alli\u00e9s et partenaires, qui comptaient sur leur soutien et leur protection en cas de crises diverses.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"210\" height=\"302\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5428\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-4.png 210w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-4-8x12.png 8w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 210px) 100vw, 210px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une <strong>erreur de calcul inverse s\u2019est produite concernant la situation en Ukraine<\/strong>. Les \u00e9valuations par les agences de renseignement et les groupes de r\u00e9flexion am\u00e9ricains du potentiel ukrainien dans une confrontation directe avec la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie \u00e9taient plut\u00f4t modestes. Elles se concentraient principalement sur la comparaison des potentiels militaires ukrainien et russe <strong>en termes quantitatifs<\/strong> , tout en sous-estimant l\u2019exp\u00e9rience et les comp\u00e9tences du commandement militaire ukrainien et en <strong>n\u00e9gligeant la dimension id\u00e9ologique<\/strong> du conflit ainsi que la volont\u00e9 des Ukrainiens de d\u00e9fendre leurs foyers les armes \u00e0 la main, m\u00eame face \u00e0 un adversaire num\u00e9riquement sup\u00e9rieur, consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme l\u2019une des plus grandes puissances militaires mondiales.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sur la base de ces rapports de renseignement, l\u2019establishment am\u00e9ricain a limit\u00e9 son aide \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. L\u2019acquisition de quantit\u00e9s massives d\u2019armes, ainsi que d\u2019autres formes d\u2019aide militaire et financi\u00e8re, a \u00e9t\u00e9 jug\u00e9e superflue et inutile, car on estimait qu\u2019avec ou sans elles, l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne succomberait aux attaques russes. Les livraisons am\u00e9ricaines d\u2019armes et d\u2019autres \u00e9quipements militaires sont donc rest\u00e9es relativement modestes, alors m\u00eame que les projets du Kremlin de raviver ce conflit vieux de huit ans en lan\u00e7ant une invasion non provoqu\u00e9e et flagrante des territoires ukrainiens devenaient de plus en plus \u00e9vidents.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"323\" height=\"181\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-5.png 323w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-5-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 323px) 100vw, 323px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e9anmoins, les Ukrainiens <strong>ont donn\u00e9 tort aux analystes am\u00e9ricains<\/strong> en opposant \u00e0 l\u2019agresseur une r\u00e9sistance d\u2019une force et d\u2019une efficacit\u00e9 surprenantes. Le commandement militaire ukrainien a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 pr\u00e9server la coh\u00e9sion et la capacit\u00e9 op\u00e9rationnelle des forces arm\u00e9es et non seulement \u00e0 tenir au-del\u00e0 des 48 \u00e0 72 heures que de nombreux experts militaires estimaient suffisantes pour permettre aux Russes de s\u2019emparer de Kyiv, mais aussi \u00e0 contenir et \u00e0 repousser l\u2019avanc\u00e9e des troupes russes, <strong>offrant une d\u00e9monstration remarquable de l\u2019utilisation efficace de toutes les ressources disponibles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Une aide opportune et suffisante aux forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes aurait pu emp\u00eacher les atrocit\u00e9s effroyables commises par l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe dans les villes ukrainiennes<\/strong> et r\u00e9duire consid\u00e9rablement les \u00e9normes pertes en vies humaines tant dans l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne que parmi la population civile.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il importe de comprendre que, m\u00eame s\u2019il est impossible de revenir sur les erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation pass\u00e9es, <strong>les \u00c9tats-Unis peuvent encore en att\u00e9nuer les graves cons\u00e9quences et m\u00eame tirer parti de la suite des \u00e9v\u00e9nements<\/strong>. Les r\u00e9sultats remarquables obtenus par l\u2019arm\u00e9e et la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 ukrainiennes montrent qu\u2019avec une aide suffisante, l\u2019Ukraine peut devenir une <strong><em>&#8216;success story&#8217; <\/em><\/strong>qui contribuera \u00e0 restaurer la r\u00e9putation et la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaines, compromises apr\u00e8s les \u00e9v\u00e9nements de l\u2019an dernier en Afghanistan. En soutenant l\u2019Ukraine dans sa lutte contre l\u2019agression russe, les \u00c9tats-Unis <strong>peuvent r\u00e9affirmer leur r\u00f4le de leader mondial<\/strong> capable de pr\u00e9server la paix, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et la d\u00e9mocratie dans diff\u00e9rentes r\u00e9gions du monde, ainsi que de d\u00e9montrer l\u2019unit\u00e9 au sein de l\u2019Alliance de l\u2019Atlantique Nord et la d\u00e9termination \u00e0 s\u2019opposer \u00e0 un acteur qui porte atteinte \u00e0 l\u2019ordre r\u00e9gional et mondial.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans ce contexte, il importe de comprendre que <strong>la Russie doit \u00eatre vaincue plut\u00f4t que simplement dissuad\u00e9e<\/strong>. Les forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes doivent disposer des moyens de mener des contre-attaques \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle afin de d\u00e9soccuper les territoires ukrainiens et de faire en sorte que la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie ne constitue plus une menace pour l\u2019Ukraine ainsi que pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionales. Dans cette optique, les \u00c9tats-Unis devraient fournir aux forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes des armes lourdes avanc\u00e9es, notamment des syst\u00e8mes de lance-roquettes multiples \u00e0 longue port\u00e9e, des pi\u00e8ces d\u2019artillerie, des a\u00e9ronefs et des syst\u00e8mes de d\u00e9fense a\u00e9rienne.&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recent news reports by American media informed about a classified letter of the Senate Intelligence Committee addressed to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Defense Department, and the CIA. The discussions concerning this issue highlighted the miscalculations committed by the US intelligence community regarding evaluating the Afghan and Ukrainian capacity to counter [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,56,61],"tags":[],"topic":[101,84,87,86,95,92],"class_list":["post-5425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-eng-north-america","category-north-america-ger-analyses","topic-middle-east","topic-russia","topic-security","topic-ukraine","topic-usa","topic-war"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The US revises its past miscalculations | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"U.S. 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