{"id":52826,"date":"2022-06-16T18:48:41","date_gmt":"2022-06-16T15:48:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?tdc-native-operation=tdc-5425-099a0596a276ab66dd77&amp;locale=fr_FR"},"modified":"2026-10-09T09:04:02","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T06:04:02","slug":"les-etats-unis-reexaminent-leurs-erreurs-dappreciation-passees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2022\/06\/16\/les-etats-unis-reexaminent-leurs-erreurs-dappreciation-passees\/","title":{"rendered":"Les \u00c9tats-Unis r\u00e9examinent leurs erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation pass\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De r\u00e9cents articles de m\u00e9dias am\u00e9ricains ont fait \u00e9tat d\u2019une lettre classifi\u00e9e de la commission du renseignement du S\u00e9nat adress\u00e9e au Bureau du directeur du renseignement national, au d\u00e9partement de la D\u00e9fense et \u00e0 la CIA. Les discussions sur cette question ont mis en lumi\u00e8re les <strong>erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation commises par la communaut\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine du renseignement dans l\u2019\u00e9valuation des capacit\u00e9s respectives de l\u2019Afghanistan et de l\u2019Ukraine \u00e0 contrer l\u2019agression des talibans et de la Russie<\/strong>. La r\u00e9flexion sur ces questions et l\u2019analyse approfondie de la m\u00e9thodologie et des conclusions formul\u00e9es dans ces deux cas offrent l\u2019occasion de r\u00e9examiner les erreurs pass\u00e9es, de minimiser leurs cons\u00e9quences et d\u2019\u00e9viter de les reproduire \u00e0 l\u2019avenir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"420\" height=\"240\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-3.png 420w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-3-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 420px) 100vw, 420px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ce qui avait commenc\u00e9 comme une op\u00e9ration visant \u00e0 endiguer les foyers terroristes en Afghanistan s\u2019est rapidement transform\u00e9 en la plus longue guerre<\/strong> \u00e0 laquelle les \u00c9tats-Unis aient particip\u00e9 de toute leur histoire. Selon certaines des estimations les plus modestes, au cours de ces deux d\u00e9cennies d\u2019implication dans les affaires locales, les Am\u00e9ricains ont d\u00e9pens\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 2 000 milliards de dollars, dont au moins 800 milliards en co\u00fbts directement li\u00e9s aux op\u00e9rations de guerre et 85 milliards pour la formation de l\u2019arm\u00e9e afghane. Le plan initial consistait \u00e0 fournir une aide suffisante au gouvernement et aux forces arm\u00e9es afghanes jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019ils soient capables de tenir leurs positions par leurs propres moyens. Les dirigeants am\u00e9ricains \u00e9taient certains que cet objectif serait atteint. Au moment de se retirer du pays, les institutions de renseignement \u00e9taient convaincues qu\u2019apr\u00e8s des ann\u00e9es de formation intensive et de financement, l\u2019arm\u00e9e afghane serait capable de vaincre les forces talibanes, incapables de mener des op\u00e9rations de grande envergure et d\u00e9pourvues d\u2019\u00e9quipements de qualit\u00e9. Elles se sont toutefois tromp\u00e9es. <strong>L\u2019Afghanistan est tomb\u00e9 sous le pouvoir des talibans<\/strong>, malgr\u00e9 toutes les luttes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes, en quelques semaines apr\u00e8s la reprise des hostilit\u00e9s actives, alors que les soldats am\u00e9ricains quittaient encore leurs bases afghanes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cons\u00e9quences de l\u2019<strong>erreur d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 un retrait pr\u00e9cipit\u00e9 d\u2019Afghanistan ont port\u00e9 un coup s\u00e9v\u00e8re aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/strong> Ce retrait a \u00e9t\u00e9 per\u00e7u par beaucoup comme une d\u00e9monstration de faiblesse et d\u2019incapacit\u00e9 \u00e0 obtenir les r\u00e9sultats souhait\u00e9s, ce qui pouvait susciter des doutes sur la capacit\u00e9 des \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 conserver leur emprise sur la politique mondiale et a nui \u00e0 leur image et \u00e0 leur cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s de leurs alli\u00e9s et partenaires, qui avaient l\u2019habitude de compter sur le soutien et la protection des Am\u00e9ricains face \u00e0 diverses crises.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"210\" height=\"302\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5428\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-4.png 210w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-4-8x12.png 8w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 210px) 100vw, 210px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une <strong>erreur d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation tout \u00e0 fait inverse s\u2019est produite concernant la situation en Ukraine<\/strong>. Les \u00e9valuations du potentiel ukrainien dans une confrontation directe avec la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie, r\u00e9alis\u00e9es par les agences de renseignement et les groupes de r\u00e9flexion am\u00e9ricains, \u00e9taient plut\u00f4t modestes. Elles se concentraient principalement sur la comparaison des potentiels militaires ukrainien et russe <strong>en termes quantitatifs<\/strong>, tout en sous-estimant l\u2019exp\u00e9rience et les comp\u00e9tences du commandement militaire ukrainien et en <strong>n\u2019accordant pas suffisamment d\u2019importance \u00e0 la dimension id\u00e9ologique<\/strong> du conflit et \u00e0 la volont\u00e9 du peuple ukrainien de d\u00e9fendre ses foyers les armes \u00e0 la main, m\u00eame face \u00e0 un adversaire sup\u00e9rieur en nombre, consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme l\u2019une des plus grandes puissances militaires mondiales.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sur la base de ces rapports de renseignement, les dirigeants am\u00e9ricains ont limit\u00e9 leur aide \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. La fourniture de grandes quantit\u00e9s d\u2019armements et d\u2019autres aides militaires et financi\u00e8res \u00e9tait jug\u00e9e inutile et sans pertinence, au motif qu\u2019avec ou sans elles, l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne succomberait aux attaques russes. Les livraisons am\u00e9ricaines d\u2019armes et d\u2019autres \u00e9quipements militaires sont donc rest\u00e9es plut\u00f4t modestes, alors m\u00eame que les projets du Kremlin de raviver ce conflit vieux de huit ans en lan\u00e7ant une invasion non provoqu\u00e9e et flagrante des territoires ukrainiens devenaient de plus en plus \u00e9vidents.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"323\" height=\"181\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-5.png 323w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-5-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 323px) 100vw, 323px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e9anmoins, les Ukrainiens <strong>ont donn\u00e9 tort aux analystes am\u00e9ricains<\/strong> en opposant \u00e0 l\u2019agresseur une riposte d\u2019une force et d\u2019une efficacit\u00e9 surprenantes. Le commandement militaire ukrainien a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 pr\u00e9server la coh\u00e9sion et la capacit\u00e9 op\u00e9rationnelle des forces arm\u00e9es et \u00e0 tenir au-del\u00e0 des 48 \u00e0 72 heures que de nombreux experts militaires estimaient suffisantes pour que les Russes s\u2019emparent de Kyiv, mais aussi \u00e0 freiner et \u00e0 contrer l\u2019avanc\u00e9e des troupes russes, <strong>offrant une d\u00e9monstration remarquable de l\u2019utilisation efficace de toutes les ressources disponibles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Une aide suffisante apport\u00e9e \u00e0 temps aux forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes aurait pu emp\u00eacher les effroyables atrocit\u00e9s commises par les militaires russes dans les villes ukrainiennes<\/strong> et r\u00e9duire consid\u00e9rablement les \u00e9normes pertes humaines tant au sein de l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne que parmi la population civile.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il est important de comprendre que, m\u00eame si les erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation pass\u00e9es ne peuvent \u00eatre effac\u00e9es, <strong>les \u00c9tats-Unis sont encore en mesure d\u2019en minimiser les graves cons\u00e9quences et m\u00eame de tirer profit de l\u2019\u00e9volution ult\u00e9rieure de la situation<\/strong>. Les r\u00e9sultats remarquables obtenus par l\u2019arm\u00e9e et la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 ukrainiennes d\u00e9montrent qu\u2019avec un niveau d\u2019aide suffisant, l\u2019Ukraine peut devenir une <strong><em>\u00ab r\u00e9ussite \u00bb <\/em><\/strong>qui contribuera \u00e0 r\u00e9tablir la r\u00e9putation et la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaines, compromises apr\u00e8s les \u00e9v\u00e9nements de l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente en Afghanistan. En soutenant l\u2019Ukraine dans sa lutte contre l\u2019agression russe, les \u00c9tats-Unis <strong>peuvent r\u00e9affirmer leur r\u00f4le de leader mondial<\/strong> capable de maintenir la paix, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et la d\u00e9mocratie dans diff\u00e9rentes r\u00e9gions du monde, tout en d\u00e9montrant l\u2019unit\u00e9 au sein de l\u2019Alliance atlantique et leur d\u00e9termination \u00e0 s\u2019opposer \u00e0 un acteur qui porte atteinte \u00e0 l\u2019ordre r\u00e9gional et mondial.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans ce contexte, il est important de comprendre que <strong>la Russie doit \u00eatre vaincue plut\u00f4t que simplement dissuad\u00e9e<\/strong>. Les forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes doivent disposer des moyens de mener des contre-attaques de grande envergure afin de lib\u00e9rer les territoires ukrainiens de l\u2019occupation et de garantir que la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie ne repr\u00e9sente plus une menace ni pour l\u2019Ukraine ni pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionales. Dans cette optique, les \u00c9tats-Unis devraient fournir aux forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes des armements lourds de pointe, notamment des lance-roquettes multiples \u00e0 longue port\u00e9e, des pi\u00e8ces d\u2019artillerie, des a\u00e9ronefs et des syst\u00e8mes de d\u00e9fense antia\u00e9rienne.&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>De r\u00e9cents articles de m\u00e9dias am\u00e9ricains ont fait \u00e9tat d\u2019une lettre classifi\u00e9e de la commission du renseignement du S\u00e9nat adress\u00e9e au Bureau du directeur du renseignement national, au d\u00e9partement de la D\u00e9fense et \u00e0 la CIA. Les discussions sur cette question ont mis en lumi\u00e8re les erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation commises par la communaut\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine du renseignement [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,61,56],"tags":[],"topic":[101,84,87,86,95,92],"class_list":["post-52826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-north-america-ger-analyses","category-eng-north-america","topic-middle-east","topic-russia","topic-security","topic-ukraine","topic-usa","topic-war"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les \u00c9tats-Unis r\u00e9examinent leurs erreurs d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation pass\u00e9es | TDC<\/title>\n<meta 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