{"id":51487,"date":"2025-02-27T13:33:26","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T11:33:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?tdc-native-operation=tdc-28044-466f5af1a60327400491&amp;locale=fr_FR"},"modified":"2026-10-05T02:13:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T23:13:59","slug":"le-role-de-la-russie-dans-lordre-mondial-dapres-guerre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2025\/02\/27\/le-role-de-la-russie-dans-lordre-mondial-dapres-guerre\/","title":{"rendered":"Le r\u00f4le de la Russie dans l\u2019ordre mondial d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"46895\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Veuillez patienter\u2026\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger en PDF\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>T\u00e9l\u00e9charger en PDF<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">3 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>La guerre en cours a consid\u00e9rablement modifi\u00e9 la position int\u00e9rieure et internationale de la Russie, mais son avenir d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre demeure tr\u00e8s incertain. <\/strong>La Russie se stabilisera-t-elle sous un r\u00e9gime de plus en plus r\u00e9pressif, conna\u00eetra-t-elle un effondrement \u00e9conomique ou se transformera-t-elle en un \u00c9tat ultranationaliste encore plus agressif ? Pour l\u2019Ukraine, la victoire est essentielle \u00e0 sa souverainet\u00e9 et \u00e0 sa s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme. Pour la Russie, la guerre est devenue une \u00e9preuve de survie du r\u00e9gime, dont l\u2019issue d\u00e9terminera l\u2019orientation politique et id\u00e9ologique de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce travail fournit une analyse approfondie de <strong>la trajectoire future de la Russie <\/strong>et de ses <strong>implications pour<\/strong> <strong>la stabilit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique, les politiques de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et les d\u00e9placements de pouvoir entre les acteurs mondiaux<\/strong>. Il examine quatre domaines cl\u00e9s : la Russie, l\u2019Occident, les acteurs non occidentaux et les institutions mondiales. Ce premier volume est consacr\u00e9 \u00e0 la Russie et \u00e0 l\u2019Occident.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La section consacr\u00e9e \u00e0 la Russie examine ses transformations politiques, \u00e9conomiques et sociales internes. Le soutien persistant au r\u00e9gime de Poutine, enracin\u00e9 dans l\u2019ultranationalisme et dans la perception d\u2019une lutte existentielle contre l\u2019influence occidentale, renforce la stabilit\u00e9 du r\u00e9gime. En outre, l\u2019essor des factions pro-guerre en Russie indique une demande croissante de mesures plus s\u00e9v\u00e8res, de r\u00e9visionnisme historique et d\u2019expansion territoriale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La section consacr\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019Occident examine les r\u00e9ponses des \u00c9tats-Unis, de l\u2019OTAN et de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne \u00e0 l\u2019agression russe. Bien que l\u2019invasion de l\u2019Ukraine par la Russie ait accru les tensions, le cadre des relations avec la Russie n\u2019a pas chang\u00e9, pas plus que <strong>les m\u00e9canismes de la politique am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 son \u00e9gard et face \u00e0 sa menace contre l\u2019Occident<\/strong>. L\u2019administration Biden a adopt\u00e9 une politique prudente \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la Russie, principalement influenc\u00e9e par l\u2019intimidation nucl\u00e9aire du Kremlin et les pr\u00e9tendues \u00ab lignes rouges \u00bb. Toutefois, l\u2019alignement croissant de la Russie sur la Chine, sa d\u00e9termination \u00e0 saper la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne et sa contestation persistante de l\u2019ordre mondial dirig\u00e9 par les \u00c9tats-Unis laissent penser qu\u2019un <strong>changement de strat\u00e9gie am\u00e9ricaine pourrait \u00eatre in\u00e9vitable<\/strong>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quant \u00e0 l\u2019OTAN, des ann\u00e9es de sous-financement et de d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la pr\u00e9sence militaire am\u00e9ricaine en Europe ont rendu l\u2019Alliance vuln\u00e9rable \u00e0 la menace russe. Malgr\u00e9 la mise en \u0153uvre de nouvelles strat\u00e9gies, l\u2019augmentation des investissements dans la d\u00e9fense et le renforcement du flanc oriental, les membres de l\u2019OTAN cherchent encore \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre les probl\u00e8mes li\u00e9s aux capacit\u00e9s industrielles, \u00e0 la coh\u00e9sion interne et \u00e0 la pr\u00e9paration \u00e0 une instabilit\u00e9 durable. L\u2019antagonisme que le r\u00e9gime russe a suscit\u00e9 envers l\u2019Alliance pourrait survivre \u00e0 son cr\u00e9ateur et amener les \u00c9tats membres \u00e0 s\u2019armer comme jamais auparavant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Entre-temps, la guerre a pouss\u00e9 l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne \u00e0 adopter une position g\u00e9opolitique plus r\u00e9solue et \u00e0 mobiliser un soutien sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. Cependant, elle a \u00e9galement mis en \u00e9vidence les difficult\u00e9s persistantes dans la prise de d\u00e9cision de l\u2019UE et dans sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 agir en tant qu\u2019acteur g\u00e9opolitique unifi\u00e9. \u00c0 l\u2019avenir, l\u2019approche de l\u2019UE \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la Russie et sa strat\u00e9gie g\u00e9opolitique plus large d\u00e9pendront de sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 int\u00e9grer les acteurs r\u00e9gionaux non membres de l\u2019UE dans un cadre de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 stable et \u00e0 renforcer son influence mondiale. <strong>Cela nous am\u00e8ne \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer non seulement l\u2019avenir des relations entre l\u2019UE et la Russie, mais aussi l\u2019\u00e9volution du projet europ\u00e9en lui-m\u00eame.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>L\u2019Ukraine et ses alli\u00e9s occidentaux doivent se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 un avenir dans lequel la Russie restera une menace \u00e0 long terme.<\/strong> Cette analyse vise \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ces questions et \u00e0 fournir un cadre n\u00e9cessaire pour comprendre pourquoi la Russie d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre est susceptible de poursuivre ses politiques agressives, comment elle a maintenu son \u00e9conomie de guerre et pourquoi les strat\u00e9gies occidentales existantes doivent \u00eatre r\u00e9ajust\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/TDC-Russia-Post-War-1-1.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:1023px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 TDC Le r\u00f4le de la Russie dans l\u2019ordre mondial d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-82d703b2-d144-472c-a9cc-bf08653c993b\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/TDC-Russia-Post-War-1-1.pdf\">TDC Le r\u00f4le de la Russie dans l\u2019ordre mondial d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La guerre en cours a consid\u00e9rablement modifi\u00e9 la position int\u00e9rieure et internationale de la Russie, mais son avenir d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre demeure tr\u00e8s incertain. La Russie se stabilisera-t-elle sous un r\u00e9gime de plus en plus r\u00e9pressif, conna\u00eetra-t-elle un effondrement \u00e9conomique ou se transformera-t-elle en un \u00c9tat ultranationaliste encore plus agressif ? Pour l\u2019Ukraine, la victoire est essentielle [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":28046,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,71,74],"tags":[],"topic":[90,91,110,84,87,86],"class_list":["post-51487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports-handbooks","category-eng-reports-eu-ukraine-partnership-program","category-eng-reports-us-ukraine-partnership-program","topic-economy","topic-eu","topic-nato","topic-russia","topic-security","topic-ukraine"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Russie d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre : relations avec les \u00c9tats-Unis, l\u2019UE et l\u2019OTAN | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le volume I \u00e9value la trajectoire 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