{"id":51199,"date":"2025-08-21T16:06:49","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T13:06:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?tdc-native-operation=tdc-32054-bf92a5b5c773ca353877&amp;locale=fr_FR"},"modified":"2026-10-04T16:50:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T13:50:25","slug":"retablissement-du-transit-du-gaz-russe-par-lukraine-consequences-politiques-economiques-et-geostrategiques","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2025\/08\/21\/retablissement-du-transit-du-gaz-russe-par-lukraine-consequences-politiques-economiques-et-geostrategiques\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u00e9tablissement du transit du gaz russe par l\u2019Ukraine : cons\u00e9quences politiques, \u00e9conomiques et g\u00e9ostrat\u00e9giques"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"51882\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Veuillez patienter...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger en PDF\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>T\u00e9l\u00e9charger en PDF<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">877 KB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette \u00e9tude se concentre sur les implications potentielles de la reprise du transit du gaz naturel russe par<br>l\u2019Ukraine \u2014 un sc\u00e9nario qui est de plus en plus discut\u00e9 dans le cadre des n\u00e9gociations de paix en cours<br>entre Kyiv et Moscou. L\u2019\u00e9tude \u00e9value si une telle mesure serait conforme aux int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux de<br>l\u2019Ukraine et aux priorit\u00e9s plus larges de l\u2019Europe en mati\u00e8re de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la suite de l\u2019expiration, \u00e0 la fin de 2019, de l\u2019accord de transit du gaz entre Naftogaz, la compagnie nationale<br>\u00e9nerg\u00e9tique ukrainienne, et Gazprom, la Russie, l\u2019Ukraine a officiellement cess\u00e9 le transit<br>du gaz russe vers l\u2019UE \u00e0 compter du 1er janvier 2025. Cette d\u00e9cision a marqu\u00e9 un changement important dans le<br>paysage \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9en.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si la cessation des activit\u00e9s de transit a entra\u00een\u00e9 des pertes \u00e9conomiques pour l\u2019Ukraine, elle a \u00e9galement conduit \u00e0 un<br>affaiblissement substantiel de la position de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie sur le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en de l\u2019\u00e9nergie.<br>Cela a, \u00e0 son tour, r\u00e9duit la capacit\u00e9 du Kremlin \u00e0 utiliser les ressources \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques comme instrument politique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c9volutions g\u00e9opolitiques :<\/strong> L\u2019agression russe en cours contre l\u2019Ukraine, conjugu\u00e9e aux<br>efforts de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne (UE) pour diversifier ses sources d\u2019\u00e9nergie, a entra\u00een\u00e9 une baisse significative<br>des importations de gaz russe. Plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, les importations de gaz russe sont pass\u00e9es de 41 % de<br>l\u2019approvisionnement de l\u2019UE en 2020 \u00e0 seulement 9 % en 2023. La cessation du transit du gaz par l\u2019Ukraine au<br>d\u00e9but de 2025 n\u2019a pas entra\u00een\u00e9 de perturbation substantielle de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de l\u2019Union<br>europ\u00e9enne. Elle a toutefois entra\u00een\u00e9 une perte de recettes pour la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie provenant des ventes de gaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Impact \u00e9conomique pour l\u2019Ukraine :<\/strong> La cessation du transit co\u00fbtera \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine jusqu\u2019\u00e0 1 milliard de dollars par an en<br>recettes perdues. En outre, les r\u00e9serves de gaz \u00e9taient tomb\u00e9es \u00e0 seulement 0,7 milliard de m\u00e8tres cubes en avril 2025<br>en raison d\u2019une baisse de la production int\u00e9rieure r\u00e9sultant des attaques russes, ce qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 une hausse des co\u00fbts<br>d\u2019importation de gaz pour l\u2019Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sc\u00e9narios alternatifs de transit du gaz :<\/strong> Des sc\u00e9narios impliquant l\u2019utilisation de gaz azerba\u00efdjanais, la r\u00e9servation directe<br>par des entreprises europ\u00e9ennes de capacit\u00e9s de transit, ou une coop\u00e9ration strat\u00e9gique pour utiliser les<br>installations ukrainiennes de stockage souterrain de gaz sont envisag\u00e9s, mais chacun se heurte \u00e0 des obstacles techniques, juridiques ou g\u00e9opolitiques.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit-2.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:1006px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-1c507d5d-7368-4d12-86dd-915c1b95d495\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit-2.pdf\">TDC_Restoration-of-Russian-Gas-Transit<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Cette publication a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e avec le soutien de la Fondation internationale Renaissance. Son contenu rel\u00e8ve de la responsabilit\u00e9 exclusive des auteurs et ne refl\u00e8te pas n\u00e9cessairement les opinions de la Fondation internationale Renaissance.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cette \u00e9tude se concentre sur les implications potentielles de la reprise du transit du gaz naturel russe parl\u2019Ukraine \u2014 un sc\u00e9nario qui est de plus en plus discut\u00e9 dans le cadre des n\u00e9gociations de paix en coursentre Kyiv et Moscou. L\u2019\u00e9tude \u00e9value si une telle mesure serait conforme aux int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux del\u2019Ukraine et aux priorit\u00e9s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":32057,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,71],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-51199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports-handbooks","category-eng-reports-eu-ukraine-partnership-program"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>R\u00e9tablissement du transit du gaz russe par l\u2019Ukraine | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La reprise du transit du gaz russe par l\u2019Ukraine pourrait affecter les int\u00e9r\u00eats de Kyiv et la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 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