{"id":50693,"date":"2022-03-28T19:35:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-28T16:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?tdc-native-operation=tdc-2460-68ba32318f8b5cbaa8c1&amp;locale=fr_FR"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:42:31","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T16:42:31","slug":"le-scenario-coreen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2022\/03\/28\/le-scenario-coreen\/","title":{"rendered":"Le \u00ab sc\u00e9nario cor\u00e9en \u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ayant subi une d\u00e9faite tactique compl\u00e8te en Ukraine, la Russie est contrainte de reconsid\u00e9rer la suite de ses actions sur le front. N\u2019ayant pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 occuper rapidement les principales villes ukrainiennes, comme pr\u00e9vu initialement, les troupes russes renforcent leur pr\u00e9sence dans les territoires qu\u2019elles occupent. Contrairement aux d\u00e9clarations ant\u00e9rieures de Poutine selon lesquelles \u00ab la Russie ne pr\u00e9voit pas de s\u2019emparer du territoire de l\u2019Ukraine \u00bb, les actions des troupes russes constituent une occupation classique, avec l\u2019int\u00e9gration \u00e9conomique, politique et d\u00e9mographique progressive des territoires occup\u00e9s dans la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>La Russie se retrouve sous une pression politique et \u00e9conomique sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, son arm\u00e9e est mal \u00e9quip\u00e9e et ne dispose d\u2019aucune r\u00e9elle capacit\u00e9 de progression au sol. Dans de telles circonstances, le Kremlin pourrait abandonner ses projets de poursuivre la conqu\u00eate de l\u2019Ukraine, mais chercherait \u00e0 s\u2019emparer des territoires d\u00e9j\u00e0 captur\u00e9s.<br>Poutine pourrait tenter d\u2019unir les territoires occup\u00e9s des r\u00e9gions de Kherson et de Zaporijjia au territoire des r\u00e9publiques dites L\/RPD. Une sorte de prototype du \u00ab sc\u00e9nario cor\u00e9en \u00bb visant \u00e0 diviser artificiellement l\u2019Ukraine. Th\u00e9oriquement, il s\u2019agit de consolider les territoires de facto contr\u00f4l\u00e9s par la Russie et d\u2019avoir une chance de faire une pause tactique avant une nouvelle offensive. \u00c0 grande \u00e9chelle, la possibilit\u00e9 de mettre en \u0153uvre un tel projet est inexistante. Les occupants se sont heurt\u00e9s au rejet total et \u00e0 la r\u00e9sistance des habitants locaux. En outre, du point de vue sociopolitique, unir Kherson aux L\/RPD rel\u00e8ve de la pure utopie. En plus d\u2019\u00e9normes pertes financi\u00e8res, la Russie se retrouvera avec une r\u00e9sistance partisane \u00e0 l\u2019arri\u00e8re et s\u2019enlisera dans une guerre asym\u00e9trique, o\u00f9 la partie du conflit disposant de ressources consid\u00e9rables a peu de chances de l\u2019emporter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Le \u00ab sc\u00e9nario cor\u00e9en \u00bb est \u00e9galement irr\u00e9aliste, car les territoires ukrainiens actuellement d\u00e9tenus par la Russie sont de petits fragments dispers\u00e9s le long d\u2019une ligne de front de 1 800 kilom\u00e8tres. Il ne s\u2019agit souvent que de routes sur lesquelles les convois russes se d\u00e9placent de fa\u00e7on chaotique et dont les fronti\u00e8res changent constamment en raison des hostilit\u00e9s. Par cons\u00e9quent, le projet de division de l\u2019Ukraine avec la prise des r\u00e9gions m\u00e9ridionales et orientales est techniquement impossible. La Russie contr\u00f4le des zones relativement petites dans le nord, l\u2019est et le sud de l\u2019Ukraine. \u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, il est tout simplement physiquement impossible de les relier.<br>La Russie est au bord d\u2019un d\u00e9faut de paiement imminent. Tout territoire suppl\u00e9mentaire int\u00e9gr\u00e9 \u00e0 sa composition constitue un fardeau financier et \u00e9conomique. On \u00e9voque d\u00e9j\u00e0 un possible gel des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts bancaires des Russes. Subventionner l\u2019Ukraine est une mesure extr\u00eamement impopulaire qui \u00e9puise le tr\u00e9sor public russe.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ayant subi une d\u00e9faite tactique compl\u00e8te en Ukraine, la Russie est contrainte de reconsid\u00e9rer la suite de ses actions sur le front. N\u2019ayant pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 occuper rapidement les principales villes ukrainiennes, comme pr\u00e9vu initialement, les troupes russes renforcent leur pr\u00e9sence dans les territoires qu\u2019elles occupent. Contrairement aux d\u00e9clarations ant\u00e9rieures de Poutine selon lesquelles \u00ab [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-50693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le \u00ab sc\u00e9nario cor\u00e9en \u00bb de la Russie pour l\u2019Ukraine | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"N\u2019ayant pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 occuper rapidement les principales villes ukrainiennes comme pr\u00e9vu initialement, les troupes russes renforcent leur pr\u00e9sence dans les territoires qu\u2019elles occupent.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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