{"id":50669,"date":"2022-03-30T19:34:17","date_gmt":"2022-03-30T16:34:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?tdc-native-operation=tdc-2734-fff729a3ee10ae368917&amp;locale=fr_FR"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:28:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T16:28:56","slug":"resultats-intermediaires-des-negociations-ukraino-russes-a-istanbul","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2022\/03\/30\/resultats-intermediaires-des-negociations-ukraino-russes-a-istanbul\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u00e9sultats interm\u00e9diaires des n\u00e9gociations ukraino-russes \u00e0 Istanbul"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Texte r\u00e9dig\u00e9 par <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/defence.org.ua\/\">Centre for Defence Strategies<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la suite des n\u00e9gociations ukraino-russes \u00e0 Istanbul, la partie ukrainienne a expos\u00e9 les param\u00e8tres de l\u2019accord sur les garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de l\u2019Ukraine. Dans l\u2019ensemble, les propositions ukrainiennes reposent sur deux pr\u00e9misses. Premi\u00e8rement, sur la confiance dans la possibilit\u00e9 de s\u00e9curiser le pays par des accords internationaux. Deuxi\u00e8mement, les n\u00e9gociateurs estiment que leurs id\u00e9es peuvent cr\u00e9er le cadre d\u2019une nouvelle architecture de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, et pas seulement europ\u00e9enne. La partie russe a pris les propositions en consid\u00e9ration et, \u00ab comme une \u00e9tape vers la d\u00e9sescalade \u00bb, a fait \u00e9tat d\u2019une \u00ab r\u00e9duction radicale de l\u2019activit\u00e9 militaire dans les zones de Kyiv et de Tchernihiv \u00bb. Toutefois, les Russes n\u2019ont pas mentionn\u00e9 qu\u2019ils transf\u00e8rent vers une section plus prioritaire du front une partie des forces arr\u00eat\u00e9es par la d\u00e9fense et la contre-attaque r\u00e9ussies des forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes aux fronti\u00e8res de Kyiv et de Tchernihiv. Et certaines troupes quittent l\u2019Ukraine pour se r\u00e9tablir et reconstituer leurs effectifs apr\u00e8s avoir subi de lourdes pertes. D\u00e9sormais, l\u2019objectif russe est d\u2019\u00ab encercler et d\u00e9truire \u00bb les positions des forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes dans la zone des r\u00e9gions de Donetsk et de Louhansk. La nouvelle a \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9e comme s\u2019il s\u2019\u00e9tait toujours agi du plan initial, alors que nous savons qu\u2019il s\u2019agit peut-\u00eatre d\u2019un plan D, apr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9chec des plans A, B et C. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le mois dernier, les n\u00e9gociations ukraino-russes se sont d\u00e9roul\u00e9es sous deux formats : entre les ministres des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res et entre les groupes de n\u00e9gociation \u00e0 Istanbul. Toutefois, la principale contribution \u00e0 la position de n\u00e9gociation de l\u2019Ukraine a \u00e9t\u00e9 apport\u00e9e par les forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes, qui ont montr\u00e9 \u00e0 la Russie qu\u2019elle \u00e9tait incapable d\u2019atteindre ses objectifs militaires malgr\u00e9 les forces massives d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es. En menant avec succ\u00e8s une op\u00e9ration de d\u00e9fense strat\u00e9gique, les forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes cr\u00e9ent un contexte favorable et des arguments solides pour rapprocher les dirigeants russes de la prise de conscience de la futilit\u00e9 de poursuivre l\u2019agression arm\u00e9e et de la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de passer \u00e0 la diplomatie avec des intentions s\u00e9rieuses. Selon le ministre ukrainien des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res, il \u00e9tait impossible de parvenir au moindre accord avec son homologue russe, Serhiy Lavrov n\u2019influen\u00e7ant les d\u00e9cisions sur aucune question. En revanche, le ministre russe des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res affirme que le seul format de n\u00e9gociation capable d\u2019\u00e9laborer des projets de d\u00e9cisions politiques pour mettre fin \u00e0 l\u2019agression russe est celui dirig\u00e9 par l\u2019assistant du pr\u00e9sident russe, Vladimir Medinsky. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, le 29 mars, un nouveau cycle de pourparlers s\u2019est achev\u00e9 \u00e0 Istanbul. L\u2019\u00e9quipe de n\u00e9gociation ukrainienne a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 les \u00e9l\u00e9ments cl\u00e9s de l\u2019accord sur les garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 pour l\u2019Ukraine. Selon les n\u00e9gociateurs, l\u2019accord de garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 doit \u00eatre sign\u00e9 et ratifi\u00e9 par au moins cinq membres permanents du Conseil de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de l\u2019ONU (qui sont \u00e9galement des puissances nucl\u00e9aires), mais d\u2019autres peuvent aussi s\u2019y joindre. En cas d\u2019acte d\u2019agression contre l\u2019Ukraine, des consultations doivent se tenir dans les trois jours. Si un r\u00e8glement diplomatique \u00e9choue, les garants doivent fournir \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine les capacit\u00e9s n\u00e9cessaires, y compris une zone d\u2019exclusion a\u00e9rienne si n\u00e9cessaire. Avec de telles garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 solides, les n\u00e9gociateurs proposent de s\u2019engager en faveur du statut neutre de l\u2019Ukraine et de s\u2019abstenir de toute int\u00e9gration dans des blocs politico-militaires. Les questions probl\u00e9matiques de tous les territoires temporairement occup\u00e9s sont exclues du champ de l\u2019accord, et les garanties ne les couvriront pas (temporairement). Le statut de la Crim\u00e9e temporairement occup\u00e9e et de la ville de S\u00e9bastopol doit \u00eatre r\u00e9gl\u00e9 dans un d\u00e9lai de 15 ans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les n\u00e9gociateurs russes ont promis d\u2019\u00e9tudier les propositions et de r\u00e9duire l\u2019intensit\u00e9 des bombardements de la capitale ukrainienne, Kyiv, et de la ville de Tchernihiv, en signe de bonne volont\u00e9. Toutefois, cette d\u00e9claration doit \u00eatre replac\u00e9e dans le contexte de la dissuasion r\u00e9ussie par les forces de d\u00e9fense ukrainiennes des tentatives russes d\u2019assi\u00e9ger Kyiv. L\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne a non seulement arr\u00eat\u00e9 les envahisseurs russes, mais les a \u00e9galement repouss\u00e9s dans plusieurs zones. Ainsi, conscient de son manque actuel de capacit\u00e9s, l\u2019\u00e9tat-major g\u00e9n\u00e9ral russe semble avoir d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d\u2019envoyer \u00e0 l\u2019Est les forces qui perdaient l\u2019offensive sur Kyiv afin d\u2019encercler et de vaincre le groupement de d\u00e9fense ukrainien le plus capable dans la r\u00e9gion de Donetsk et de Louhansk. En cas de succ\u00e8s, cela couperait l\u2019Ukraine des mers Noire et d\u2019Azov et permettrait de revenir au si\u00e8ge de Kyiv. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le plan propos\u00e9 \u00e0 Istanbul a imm\u00e9diatement soulev\u00e9 de nombreuses questions et suscit\u00e9 des commentaires et des analyses. La disposition \u00e0 accepter le statut neutre : quel impact cela aura-t-il sur la collaboration et le partenariat entre l\u2019Ukraine et l\u2019OTAN ? Cela limitera-t-il l\u2019occidentalisation de l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne, qui se poursuit avec succ\u00e8s depuis des ann\u00e9es ? Les pays occidentaux et d\u2019autres nations accepteront-ils une garantie de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00ab de type article 5 \u00bb ? Comment un tel engagement pourrait-il \u00eatre appliqu\u00e9 ? Qu\u2019en est-il des menaces nucl\u00e9aires ? Les points les plus difficiles de la proposition sont les id\u00e9es de pourparlers s\u00e9par\u00e9s sur la Crim\u00e9e et de tenue d\u2019un sommet ukraino-russe. Un probl\u00e8me distinct sera l\u2019approbation d\u2019un tel accord lors d\u2019un r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum panukrainien, les Ukrainiens ayant d\u00e9montr\u00e9 \u00e0 plusieurs reprises leur attachement \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9grit\u00e9 territoriale. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le refus de l\u2019Ukraine d\u2019accueillir des bases militaires de l\u2019OTAN et son engagement \u00e0 ne pas d\u00e9velopper d\u2019armes nucl\u00e9aires sont moins probl\u00e9matiques. De tels projets et mesures n\u2019ont \u00e9t\u00e9 avanc\u00e9s qu\u2019en r\u00e9ponse \u00e0 la rh\u00e9torique des dirigeants russes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans l\u2019ensemble, les propositions d\u2019Istanbul correspondent aux id\u00e9es de garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 propos\u00e9es par la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie, que Moscou a envoy\u00e9es \u00e0 ses partenaires occidentaux, et les d\u00e9veloppent dans une direction plus constructive. D\u2019autre part, par des propositions constructives, les n\u00e9gociateurs ukrainiens signalent que le conflit arm\u00e9 ukraino-russe n\u2019a pas de solution militaire, seulement une solution diplomatique, et prennent l\u2019initiative en soumettant la proposition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous comprenons tous que la Russie peut \u00ab jouer \u00bb ind\u00e9finiment \u00e0 ce jeu de n\u00e9gociation. Le groupe de Minsk a mis des ann\u00e9es \u00e0 discuter des accords de Minsk, o\u00f9 les d\u00e9saccords \u00e9taient d\u00e9termin\u00e9s par des positions strat\u00e9giques totalement diff\u00e9rentes des parties : l\u2019Ukraine voulait conserver sa souverainet\u00e9, la Russie \u2014 un contr\u00f4le complet sur les territoires occup\u00e9s, qui seraient int\u00e9gr\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Russie n\u2019entamera de v\u00e9ritables n\u00e9gociations que si elle comprend qu\u2019elle \u00e9choue syst\u00e9matiquement sur le champ de bataille. On ignore combien de pertes elle doit subir. Avec un nouveau plan concernant le Donbass, elle tente d\u00e9sesp\u00e9r\u00e9ment de concentrer ses forces et d\u2019obtenir au moins un certain succ\u00e8s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Texte r\u00e9dig\u00e9 par Centre for Defence Strategies \u00c0 la suite des n\u00e9gociations ukraino-russes \u00e0 Istanbul, la partie ukrainienne a expos\u00e9 les param\u00e8tres de l\u2019accord sur les garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 de l\u2019Ukraine. Dans l\u2019ensemble, les propositions ukrainiennes reposent sur deux pr\u00e9misses. Premi\u00e8rement, sur la confiance dans la possibilit\u00e9 de s\u00e9curiser le pays par des accords internationaux. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2736,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-50669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pourparlers Ukraine\u2013Russie \u00e0 Istanbul : r\u00e9sultats interm\u00e9diaires | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les pourparlers d\u2019Istanbul ont propos\u00e9 des garanties internationales de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 pour l\u2019Ukraine, tandis que la Russie a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 son red\u00e9ploiement de troupes comme une d\u00e9sescalade militaire.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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