{"id":5002,"date":"2022-05-19T17:42:17","date_gmt":"2022-05-19T14:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=5002"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:43:26","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:43:26","slug":"destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2022\/05\/19\/destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9stabilisation de la Transnistrie : pr\u00e9lude \u00e0 la d\u00e9stabilisation de l\u2019Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the first refugees started fleeing from Transnistria. Short after these events, Moldovan President M. Sandu held a meeting of the Security Council. On May 1, the British newspaper The Times published an article stating that the Kremlin had decided to invade Moldova, from where it would try to open a new front against Ukraine, in particular, aimed from the west at Odesa and the Odesa region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.rferl.org\/44675F79-0DD7-4668-92D0-2549C10D0D8E_cx0_cy1_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u0421\u0432\u044f\u0442\u043a\u0443\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0414\u043d\u044f \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0438 \u0432 \u0422\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0456. \u041f\u0440\u0438\u0434\u043d\u0456\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432'\u044f 9 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u044f 2014 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0443\"\/><figcaption><em>C\u00e9l\u00e9bration du Jour de la Victoire \u00e0 Tiraspol. Transnistrie, 9 mai 2014.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meaning: the events in Transnistria are developing according to the typical &#8220;Donetsk&#8221; scenario when an external threat was artificially created, an evacuation was announced, and then mobilization in the &#8220;L\/DNR&#8221;, which ended with a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>military capabilities of the PMR and L\/DNR are incomparable but Russia is trying to create an additional threat to Ukraine, and as a possible option &#8211; an irritant provoking the response of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;<\/li><li>un autre avertissement \u00e0 M. Sandu quant au caract\u00e8re ind\u00e9sirable des livraisons de carburant \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine par le territoire moldave. Sans quoi, elle aura la guerre chez elle ;<\/li><li>the traditional parade on May 9 in Transnistria has been cancelled. Given the extreme ideological saturation of the republic, this is a very serious step. Together with the need for &#8220;some kind of victory&#8221; for Putin, this &#8220;victory&#8221; may be the PMR;<\/li><li>en cas de d\u00e9stabilisation de la Moldavie, M. Sandu ne pourra pas r\u00e9sister \u00e0 la Russie, notamment en cas de frappes de haute pr\u00e9cision : elle sera contrainte soit de se rendre, soit de demander l\u2019aide de pays tiers ;<\/li><li>si l\u2019Ukraine intervient, la Russie aura la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019accro\u00eetre sa pression sur le champ de bataille. Au plus, elle pourra officiellement d\u00e9clarer la guerre \u00e0 Kyiv ;<\/li><li>if Romania intervenes, this would constitute a precedent at a higher level &#8211; the NATO level. Romania alone will not oppose Russia and NATO will have to consider whether to go to war with Russia for the sake of Moldova;<\/li><li>les m\u00e9dias occidentaux rapportent de plus en plus que Poutine a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de s\u2019emparer militairement de la Moldavie. Les troupes russes n\u2019ont pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 \u00e9tablir, \u00e0 travers l\u2019Ukraine, un corridor terrestre vers la Transnistrie ; attaquer un \u00c9tat faible dot\u00e9 d\u2019une arm\u00e9e officiellement existante serait donc une solution plus simple que de percer un tel corridor au prix de combats lourds et sanglants ;<\/li><li>apr\u00e8s l\u2019occupation de la Moldavie, la Russie accro\u00eetra ses capacit\u00e9s de mobilisation et recevra une certaine quantit\u00e9 d\u2019armes. La Russie manque catastrophiquement de soldats r\u00e9ellement aptes au combat, qu\u2019elle tente de recruter \u00e0 chaque occasion, y compris en s\u2019emparant de pays asym\u00e9triquement faibles.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia is raising the complexity of challenges and is trying to create additional hotbeds of possible war near the borders of NATO and the EU. The next epicentre may be the Balkans. Serbia is already at the centre of attention. Most importantly, the Kremlin has proved that a fairly simple method of &#8220;portraying the aggressor as the victim&#8221;, which was introduced by Hitler, is also applicable in our time. At the macro level, Russia is trying to destabilize Europe and the collective West. At the micro level, it is generating additional threats to Ukraine, creating, among other things, preconditions for a more massive invasion of southern Ukraine, formation of a land corridor to Transnistria with the potential occupation of Moldova if the West completely fails to act.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,31],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-5002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Transnistria\u2019s Destabilization Risk for Europe | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This analysis examines the April 2022 attacks in Transnistria and the risk that instability there could widen Russia\u2019s war beyond Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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