{"id":29249,"date":"2025-05-14T17:33:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T14:33:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=29249"},"modified":"2026-07-04T12:00:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T09:00:51","slug":"tdc-presents-research-on-russias-role-in-the-post-war-world-order-at-the-event","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2025\/05\/14\/tdc-presents-research-on-russias-role-in-the-post-war-world-order-at-the-event\/","title":{"rendered":"Le TDC pr\u00e9sente sa recherche sur \u00ab Le r\u00f4le de la Russie dans l\u2019ordre mondial d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre \u00bb lors d\u2019un \u00e9v\u00e9nement"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le 13 mai 2025, le Transatlantic Dialogue Center a fi\u00e8rement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 les principales conclusions de sa recherche sur \u00ab Le r\u00f4le de la Russie dans l\u2019ordre mondial d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre.<\/strong>\u00bb Cette pr\u00e9sentation a ouvert une discussion essentielle avec des experts de premier plan sur les d\u00e9fis complexes et les dilemmes strat\u00e9giques pos\u00e9s par la Russie dans un paysage mondial en \u00e9volution. Notre recherche a examin\u00e9 \u00e0 quoi pourrait ressembler la Russie d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre et comment l\u2019Ukraine et l\u2019Occident devraient s\u2019y pr\u00e9parer. Les conclusions, pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par Daryna Sydorenko, directrice de la recherche du TDC, indiquent que la Russie d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre est susceptible de rester agressive, ind\u00e9pendamment de l\u2019issue des combats, en raison de son id\u00e9ologie profond\u00e9ment ancr\u00e9e, de la promotion d\u2019un nationalisme agressif et du refus de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de faire des compromis. En outre, l\u2019\u00e9conomie militaris\u00e9e de la Russie alimente cette agressivit\u00e9, ce qui rend indispensables des sanctions continues et rigoureusement appliqu\u00e9es. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 la suite de la pr\u00e9sentation de nos principales conclusions, nos \u00e9minents intervenants ont livr\u00e9 leurs analyses approfondies :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dre Maria Doma\u0144ska, chercheuse principale au Centre d\u2019\u00e9tudes orientales (OSW), bas\u00e9 \u00e0 Varsovie :<\/strong> La Dre Doma\u0144ska a affirm\u00e9 que, sous le poutinisme, la guerre est tragiquement devenue une \u00ab condition naturelle de l\u2019\u00c9tat russe \u00bb, servant d\u2019outil pour garantir la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 politique int\u00e9rieure d\u2019un r\u00e9gime incapable de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer une croissance \u00e9conomique durable. La Dre Doma\u0144ska a soulign\u00e9 que Poutine s\u2019est fait l\u2019otage de la guerre, ayant trop investi dans l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une victoire russe d\u00e9finitive. Elle a \u00e9tabli une comparaison frappante, estimant que la Russie contemporaine ressemble davantage \u00e0 l\u2019Allemagne nazie qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique en raison de son revanchisme, de son militarisme et de l\u2019absence d\u2019un \u00ab vaccin antiguerre \u00bb dans la conscience collective. \u00c0 la diff\u00e9rence de l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique, la Russie est une dictature personnalis\u00e9e, d\u00e9pourvue de contre-pouvoirs institutionnels face \u00e0 la volont\u00e9 arbitraire du dirigeant. La Dre Doma\u0144ska a conclu que la Russie demeurera une menace existentielle pour l\u2019Europe tant qu\u2019elle restera autoritaire et imp\u00e9riale, et que toute future normalisation des relations avec l\u2019Occident devra \u00eatre subordonn\u00e9e non seulement au respect de l\u2019int\u00e9grit\u00e9 territoriale de l\u2019Ukraine et au versement de r\u00e9parations, mais aussi, et surtout, \u00e0 une lib\u00e9ralisation int\u00e9rieure de la Russie, notamment \u00e0 la lib\u00e9ration des prisonniers politiques et \u00e0 la tenue d\u2019\u00e9lections v\u00e9ritablement concurrentielles. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Cover<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Juraj Majcin, analyste des politiques publiques au European Policy Center \u00e0 Bruxelles :<\/strong> M. Majcin a constat\u00e9 qu\u2019\u00e0 Bruxelles, on prend de plus en plus conscience que la Russie demeurera une menace existentielle pour l\u2019Europe. Il a toutefois averti que l\u2019approche actuelle de l\u2019Europe est souvent trop r\u00e9active et a plaid\u00e9 pour une strat\u00e9gie plus proactive fond\u00e9e sur l\u2019endiguement de la Russie. Selon M. Majcin, une part importante de cette strat\u00e9gie doit reposer sur une forte dissuasion, m\u00eame s\u2019il a relev\u00e9 le d\u00e9fi que pose l\u2019\u00e9conomie de guerre russe, dont la production d\u00e9passe celle de l\u2019Occident pour certains \u00e9quipements militaires. Il a soulign\u00e9 l\u2019importance de soutenir les pays partenaires de l\u2019UE tels que la Moldavie et la G\u00e9orgie, et de veiller \u00e0 ce que la d\u00e9mocratie prosp\u00e8re en Ukraine. M. Majcin a \u00e9galement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme un d\u00e9fi majeur les divergences dans la perception des menaces en Europe, insistant sur la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de rapprocher ces points de vue et de convaincre les citoyens qu\u2019il faut consentir \u00e0 des sacrifices en faveur de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 collective, en s\u2019inspirant \u00e9ventuellement des mod\u00e8les nordiques de participation de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9. Il a \u00e9galement \u00e9voqu\u00e9 les difficult\u00e9s propres \u00e0 la prise de d\u00e9cision au sein de l\u2019UE, notamment celle d\u2019obtenir l\u2019unit\u00e9 sur les sanctions lorsque certains \u00c9tats membres agissent comme des \u00ab chevaux de Troie \u00bb.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael DiCianna, chercheur associ\u00e9 au Center for Intermarium Studies de l\u2019Institute of World Politics :<\/strong> M. DiCianna a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 une perspective am\u00e9ricaine, notant que les efforts de normalisation des relations avec la Russie constituent un th\u00e8me r\u00e9current sous plusieurs administrations am\u00e9ricaines, y compris lors du premier mandat de Trump. Selon lui, certains signes montrent que Donald Trump commence \u00e0 comprendre que le Poutine de 2025 n\u2019est pas le m\u00eame dirigeant que celui avec lequel il avait eu affaire auparavant. M. DiCianna a soulign\u00e9 que l\u2019administration Trump tend \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer la puissance et les alliances am\u00e9ricaines, y compris l\u2019OTAN, principalement sous l\u2019angle de l\u2019\u00e9conomie et du commerce plut\u00f4t qu\u2019en termes purement militaro-strat\u00e9giques. Les critiques adress\u00e9es aux membres de l\u2019OTAN tiennent souvent au non-respect des objectifs de d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense, consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un probl\u00e8me \u00e9conomique. Il s\u2019est dit pr\u00e9occup\u00e9 par le possible \u00e9chec de la dissuasion conventionnelle face \u00e0 la Russie, Moscou pouvant estimer \u00eatre d\u00e9j\u00e0 en guerre avec l\u2019OTAN, et pas seulement avec l\u2019Ukraine. M. DiCianna a estim\u00e9 que, si elle per\u00e7oit des fissures dans la d\u00e9termination occidentale, la Russie pourrait avoir d\u00e9pass\u00e9 le stade o\u00f9 une d\u00e9monstration de force peut encore la dissuader, ce qui pourrait l\u2019amener \u00e0 \u00ab jeter les d\u00e9s de fer \u00bb et \u00e0 mettre l\u2019OTAN \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve. Il a appel\u00e9 \u00e0 ne plus se contenter de discuter de la dissuasion, mais \u00e0 \u00e9laborer des plans de guerre plus s\u00e9rieux, et a exhort\u00e9 les d\u00e9mocraties lib\u00e9rales occidentales \u00e0 reconna\u00eetre que la Russie n\u2019est pas seulement un adversaire ou un concurrent, mais un \u00ab ennemi \u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nous adressons nos sinc\u00e8res remerciements \u00e0 nos \u00e9minents intervenants pour leurs pr\u00e9cieuses analyses ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 notre public engag\u00e9 pour ses questions pertinentes. Cette discussion a soulign\u00e9 le besoin essentiel de poursuivre le dialogue, de renforcer la pr\u00e9paration et d\u2019adopter des strat\u00e9gies lucides pour faire face aux complexit\u00e9s de l\u2019ordre mondial d\u2019apr\u00e8s-guerre.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 13 May 2025, the Transatlantic Dialogue Center proudly presented its key research findings on “Russia\u2019s Role in the Post-War World Order.” This presentation framed a vital discussion with distinguished experts on the complex challenges and strategic dilemmas posed by Russia in the evolving global landscape. Our research delved into what a post-war Russia might […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":29252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,103,102],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-29249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-eu-ukraine-partnership-program-events","category-eng-us-ukraine-partnership-program-events"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"\nTDC Presents Research on Russia\u2019s Postwar Role<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"At a TDC event, Daryna Sydorenko presented research on possible postwar paths for Russia and how Ukraine and Western partners should prepare.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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