{"id":2460,"date":"2022-03-28T19:35:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-28T16:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=2460"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:50:57","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:50:57","slug":"the-korean-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2022\/03\/28\/the-korean-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"Le \u00ab sc\u00e9nario cor\u00e9en \u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ayant subi une d\u00e9faite tactique compl\u00e8te en Ukraine, la Russie est contrainte de reconsid\u00e9rer ses actions futures sur le front. N\u2019ayant pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 occuper rapidement les principales villes ukrainiennes, comme elle l\u2019avait initialement pr\u00e9vu, les troupes russes renforcent leur pr\u00e9sence dans les territoires qu\u2019elles occupent. Contrairement aux pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes d\u00e9clarations de Poutine selon lesquelles \u00ab la Russie ne pr\u00e9voit pas de s\u2019emparer du territoire ukrainien \u00bb, les actions des troupes russes rel\u00e8vent d\u2019une occupation classique, avec l\u2019int\u00e9gration \u00e9conomique, politique et d\u00e9mographique progressive des territoires occup\u00e9s dans la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>La Russie se trouve sous une pression politique et \u00e9conomique sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent ; son arm\u00e9e est mal \u00e9quip\u00e9e et ne dispose d\u2019aucune r\u00e9elle capacit\u00e9 de man\u0153uvre au sol. Dans de telles circonstances, le Kremlin pourrait abandonner ses projets de s\u2019emparer davantage de territoires ukrainiens, mais tenterait de conserver les territoires d\u00e9j\u00e0 captur\u00e9s.<br>Poutine pourrait tenter d\u2019unir les territoires occup\u00e9s des r\u00e9gions de Kherson et de Zaporijjia au territoire des pr\u00e9tendues r\u00e9publiques de la RPD\/RPL. Il s\u2019agirait d\u2019une sorte de prototype du \u00ab sc\u00e9nario cor\u00e9en \u00bb, aux fins d\u2019une division artificielle de l\u2019Ukraine. Th\u00e9oriquement, cela constituerait la consolidation de territoires de facto contr\u00f4l\u00e9s par la Russie et l\u2019occasion de faire une pause tactique avant une nouvelle offensive. \u00c0 grande \u00e9chelle, la mise en \u0153uvre d\u2019un tel projet est impossible. Les occupants se heurtent au rejet total et \u00e0 la r\u00e9sistance des habitants. En outre, d\u2019un point de vue sociopolitique, unir Kherson \u00e0 la RPD\/RPL rel\u00e8ve de la pure utopie. Outre d\u2019\u00e9normes pertes financi\u00e8res, la Russie se retrouverait avec une r\u00e9sistance partisane \u00e0 l\u2019arri\u00e8re et s\u2019enliserait dans une guerre asym\u00e9trique, o\u00f9 la partie disposant de plus de ressources a peu de chances de l\u2019emporter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Le \u00ab sc\u00e9nario cor\u00e9en \u00bb est \u00e9galement irr\u00e9aliste, car les territoires ukrainiens actuellement contr\u00f4l\u00e9s par la Russie ne sont que de petits fragments dispers\u00e9s le long d\u2019une ligne de front de 1,800 kilom\u00e8tres. Il ne s\u2019agit souvent que de routes sur lesquelles les convois russes se d\u00e9placent de fa\u00e7on chaotique et dont les limites changent constamment au gr\u00e9 des hostilit\u00e9s. Par cons\u00e9quent, le concept d\u2019une division de l\u2019Ukraine passant par la prise des r\u00e9gions du sud et de l\u2019est est impossible d\u2019un point de vue purement technique. La Russie contr\u00f4le des zones relativement petites dans le nord, l\u2019est et le sud de l\u2019Ukraine. \u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, il est tout simplement physiquement impossible de les r\u00e9unir.<br>La Russie est au bord d\u2019un d\u00e9faut de paiement imminent. Tout territoire suppl\u00e9mentaire int\u00e9gr\u00e9 \u00e0 son ensemble constitue un fardeau financier et \u00e9conomique. Il est d\u00e9j\u00e0 question d\u2019un possible gel des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts bancaires des Russes. Subventionner l\u2019Ukraine serait une mesure extr\u00eamement impopulaire et co\u00fbteuse pour le tr\u00e9sor russe.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Having suffered a complete tactical defeat in Ukraine, Russia is forced to reconsider its further actions at the front. Having failed to quickly occupy key Ukrainian cities, as originally intended, Russian troops are strengthening their presence in the territories they occupy. Contrary to Putin\u2019s earlier words that \u201cRussia does not plan to seize the territory [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,31],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-2460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The \u201cKorean scenario\u201d - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. 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