{"id":23718,"date":"2024-05-09T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-09T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=23718"},"modified":"2025-08-05T12:56:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T09:56:50","slug":"how-not-to-lose-voters-pre-election-campaigns-of-biden-and-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2024\/05\/09\/how-not-to-lose-voters-pre-election-campaigns-of-biden-and-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Comment (ne pas) perdre des \u00e9lecteurs : les campagnes pr\u00e9\u00e9lectorales de Biden et Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-by-dana-hunda\"><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"42417\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF en anglais\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF en anglais<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">2 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\"><strong>Principaux enseignements<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dynamique des primaires :<\/strong>&nbsp;La primaire r\u00e9publicaine s\u2019est rapidement r\u00e9duite \u00e0 Donald Trump, seul candidat de t\u00eate apr\u00e8s ses premi\u00e8res victoires, tandis que Joe Biden appara\u00eet comme le principal pr\u00e9tendant pour les d\u00e9mocrates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trump&#8217;s Campaign and Controversies:<\/strong>&nbsp;Donald Trump conserve un solide soutien de sa base malgr\u00e9 les controverses et les proc\u00e9dures judiciaires en cours. Sa campagne s\u2019appuie sur des th\u00e8mes familiers de ses pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes candidatures, tels qu\u2019une politique migratoire ferme et des promesses \u00e9conomiques.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>D\u00e9fis judiciaires et d\u2019image publique pour Trump :<\/strong>&nbsp;Malgr\u00e9 de nombreux probl\u00e8mes judiciaires et une perception publique contrast\u00e9e, le soutien r\u00e9publicain de base \u00e0 Trump demeure stable, avec un appui important \u00e0 ses propositions politiques et \u00e0 son style de leadership.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Biden&#8217;s&nbsp;Performance and Public Approval:<\/strong>&nbsp;President Biden\u2019s performance is seen as satisfactory by Democrats, but overall approval remains below the 50% threshold usually indicative of strong reelection prospects.&nbsp;Mostly,&nbsp;voter concerns lie over his handling of immigration, the economy, and foreign policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Incertitudes \u00e9lectorales<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong>&nbsp;La r\u00e9ussite potentielle des deux candidats est difficile \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir, en raison de la fluctuation des sentiments des \u00e9lecteurs, de l\u2019influence des enjeux cl\u00e9s et de la nature instable des alliances politiques.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Facteurs strat\u00e9giques de r\u00e9ussite \u00e9lectorale :<\/strong>&nbsp;The election outcome will likely hinge on the effectiveness of the candidates&#8217; campaigns, their ability to navigate controversies, and their success in mobilizing voter support amidst a polarized electorate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"595\" height=\"235\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23720\" style=\"width:897px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image.jpeg 595w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-18x7.jpeg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette ann\u00e9e, la saison des primaires a repris aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Les candidats doivent remporter les primaires ou caucus de chaque \u00c9tat, ou y obtenir de bons r\u00e9sultats, afin d\u2019obtenir des d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s de leur parti et de participer aux \u00e9lections de novembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bien que les primaires se d\u00e9roulent sur une demi-ann\u00e9e, plus de 70 % des d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s seront d\u00e9sign\u00e9s d\u2019ici la fin mars. Les \u00c9tats peuvent encore modifier les dates et les r\u00e8gles des \u00e9lections, ce qui ajoute une part d\u2019impr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 \u00e0 la comp\u00e9tition et oblige les candidats \u00e0 rester actifs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initially, among the Republicans, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswami, and Donald Trump were leading. However, later, two candidates dropped out, and Haley withdrew after&nbsp;losing&nbsp;in her own state and at the national level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il ne reste donc qu\u2019un candidat r\u00e9publicain ayant re\u00e7u le plus grand soutien des \u00e9lecteurs : Donald Trump. Et, \u00e0 ce stade, il n\u2019a plus qu\u2019un seul adversaire susceptible de menacer ses plans de victoire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 d\u00e9mocrate, le candidat le plus populaire est Joe Biden qui, comme Trump, a une chance de briguer un second mandat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mais est-ce vraiment le cas ? Trump, que beaucoup semblent soutenir, pourra-t-il encore l\u2019emporter, ou Joe Biden pourra-t-il conserver le pouvoir pendant quatre ann\u00e9es suppl\u00e9mentaires ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article offers an overview of the presidential candidates&#8217; election campaigns, an analysis of the main reasons for their unpopularity among the wider electorate, and the prospects of successful results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-donald-trump-guaranteed-winner-or-loud-fiasco\"><strong>Donald Trump : vainqueur assur\u00e9 ou fiasco retentissant ?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"979\" height=\"650\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23725\" style=\"width:374px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430.jpg 979w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430-600x398.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430-768x510.jpg 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 979px) 100vw, 979px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>CHIP SOMODEVILLA \/ AFP<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first state that attracted everyone&#8217;s attention was Iowa. On January 15, the season officially opened there, and the first primaries were held. In these primaries, Trump achieved an undeniable victory, receiving the votes of 20 delegates out of 40. In all subsequent primaries and party caucuses (New Hampshire, Nevada, Virgin Islands, and another 15 states on Super Tuesday), which had already taken place by February 11, Trump also&nbsp;won&nbsp;with a significant lead, leaving his competitors behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Such &#8220;obviousness&#8221; of the results right from the start forced many candidates to drop out of the race in the first months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, given the huge number of contradictions and fatal mistakes surrounding the main favorite of Republican Party voters, there is some dissonance. To understand the reasons behind his enormous support, we need to consider his approach to the&nbsp;2016 elections, revisit his defeat in 2020, and compare it with the situation we observe today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In June 2015, Trump announced his candidacy for president, using the slogan &#8220;Make America Great Again&#8221; on red caps, which became iconic. He promised to create jobs, repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), increase coal production, reduce the influence of lobbyists, withdraw from the Paris Agreement, impose tariffs on imports, build a wall on the border, and ban Muslim immigration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Positioning himself as an outsider, Trump garnered support from conservatives, including the Tea Party movement.&nbsp;During his campaign, the opponents highlighted numerous controversies stemming from what they deemed provocative remarks. They emphasized his remarks, which were often perceived as racist and sexist, and criticized his reluctance to condemn groups like the Ku Klux Klan. These issues fueled concerns among many about his stance on equality and justice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the criticism, he won the nomination from the Republican Party, heavily targeting his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump&#8217;s threat to imprison Clinton in the event of his victory in the elections was unprecedented in US political history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And although&nbsp;more people&nbsp;voted for Clinton (65.8 million votes), due to the US voting system, Trump (62.9 million votes) won the 2016 election.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1310\" height=\"916\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23726\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302.png 1310w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-600x420.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-1024x716.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-768x537.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04302-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1310px) 100vw, 1310px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En 2020, Trump a obtenu l\u2019investiture sans concurrence significative, et le parti a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de r\u00e9utiliser son programme de 2016. Il a fait campagne sur des promesses de cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois, de d\u00e9veloppement d\u2019un vaccin contre la COVID-19 et de r\u00e9forme de l\u2019immigration, tout en critiquant les politiques du candidat d\u00e9mocrate Joe Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la suite d\u2019une \u00e9lection tr\u00e8s disput\u00e9e, le candidat sortant a remis en question la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats. Cela a donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de recours judiciaires \u2014 au total 60 proc\u00e9dures \u2014 visant \u00e0 r\u00e9examiner les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9lectoraux. Des d\u00e9marches ont \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 entreprises aupr\u00e8s d\u2019autorit\u00e9s judiciaires sup\u00e9rieures, dont la Cour supr\u00eame, pour qu\u2019elles r\u00e9visent le processus. Lors d\u2019un important rassemblement le 6 janvier, auquel ont particip\u00e9 des groupes divers, Trump a r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 ses pr\u00e9occupations concernant l\u2019int\u00e9grit\u00e9 \u00e9lectorale. Cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec une mont\u00e9e des tensions qui a culmin\u00e9 par une intrusion dans le si\u00e8ge du Congr\u00e8s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within days, the House of Representatives impeached Trump for &#8220;incitement of insurrection,&#8221; marking the first time a US president had been impeached twice (the first was in 2019). However, Trump was acquitted as the Senate failed to reach the necessary two-thirds majority to convict him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-so-what-can-we-conclude\"><strong>Ainsi<\/strong><strong><em>,&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><strong>que pouvons-nous conclure ?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump&#8217;s campaign strategy involves a set of policies that have been met with scrutiny, particularly in relation to minority rights and adherence to international accords. The rhetoric has often been characterized as bold and has sparked widespread discussion. Criticism directed at counterparts from the Democratic Party has been its consistent element, alongside an assertive approach to the electoral process. The campaign has also been active in seeking judicial review of election results and has engaged its audience in a manner that some interpret as strongly encouraging activism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s also important to mention the legal cases in which the former president is the main accused. Today, Donald Trump has become the first president of the United States ever to face criminal responsibility. Negative news mentioning the former president&#8217;s name appears with remarkable regularity. Therefore, ratings may decline, not rise or remain stable, unless he learns to use the courtroom as a PR platform<strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to recent polls&nbsp;(March 2-4), 79% of Republican Party members support Trump. This figure has remained stable over the past year despite active criminal investigations and questionable&nbsp;statements&nbsp;about NATO and Ukraine, which Trump announced on February 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, only 43% of American voters (data as of March 24-26) view Trump positively. Also, a clear majority of Americans (66%) believe that Donald Trump should not have immunity from criminal prosecution for actions he took during his presidency. By the way, a federal appeals court recently&nbsp;reached&nbsp;the same conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Views on Trump&#8217;s attempts to remain president after the 2020 election have essentially&nbsp;remained unchanged&nbsp;from what they were a year and a half ago during public hearings on the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021: 45% believe he acted illegally, 32% unethically, and 23% believe he did nothing wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sur la m\u00eame question, environ la moiti\u00e9 des r\u00e9publicains (49 %) affirment que Trump n\u2019a rien fait de mal apr\u00e8s la derni\u00e8re \u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle, 40 % estiment que ses actes \u00e9taient contraires \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9thique et seuls 11 % les jugent ill\u00e9gaux.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1540\" height=\"870\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23728\" style=\"width:750px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303.png 1540w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-600x339.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-1536x868.png 1536w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04303-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1540px) 100vw, 1540px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americans generally&nbsp;agree&nbsp;on what to expect from Trump after this year&#8217;s general elections, regardless of whether they end in his victory or defeat. If the Republican Party nominates Trump and he loses, most believe he will refuse to concede again. And if he wins,&nbsp;there is widespread anticipation that he may seek to leverage the authority of the White House to pursue certain actions. These actions could potentially involve exploring avenues for self-pardon in the face of federal convictions, initiating federal inquiries into political adversaries, and introducing a range of policy adjustments. Among the speculated changes are initiatives such as addressing the status of millions of undocumented immigrants, revisiting the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and potentially reshaping the composition of the federal workforce in alignment with his policy agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among Trump supporters, about half (48%) of Americans&nbsp;say&nbsp;they support Trump&#8217;s attempt to mass deport undocumented immigrants, while 39% support repealing and replacing Obamacare. About a third want him to fire federal workers who oppose his policies (34%), instruct the Justice Department to investigate competitors (31%), pardon people convicted on January 6 (31%), or pardon himself (28%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within the Republican Party, these ideas are more popular, with a majority saying they&nbsp;support&nbsp;Trump using the presidency to pardon himself and investigate his competitors. The majority of 78% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they support Trump deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, 68% would support him repealing and replacing Obamacare, and 62% would support his firing federal workers. Others say they support Trump pardoning himself (54%), pardoning people involved in the January 6 attacks (54%), or initiating investigations into his opponents (51%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-is-behind-the-stability-of-trump-s-support\"><strong>Qu\u2019est-ce qui explique la stabilit\u00e9 du soutien \u00e0 Trump ?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In general,&nbsp;three assumptions&nbsp;can be made:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump is benefiting from economic nostalgia among certain demographics, including young people, Latino voters, and working-class Americans. Despite the current administration&#8217;s efforts to highlight positive economic indicators, many of these voters perceive the economy as stronger under Trump, seeing his policies as more beneficial to their interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, Trump&#8217;s favorability is being restored with his radical statements on topics that are painful for Republican voters, such as migration and military aid to warring countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump&#8217;s improved standing can be attributed, among other things, to a quieter campaign, muted media coverage, and general public detachment. Unlike his previous campaigns, Trump&#8217;s current bid for the presidency has attracted relatively less attention, with fewer controversial statements and rallies dominating the news cycle. In addition, fewer Americans follow political news closely compared to previous election cycles, potentially contributing to a more favorable perception of Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-joe-biden-voter-support-and-chances-against-trump\"><strong>Joe Biden &#8211; voter support and chances against Trump<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Biden&#8217;s arrival in power can be called quite&nbsp;successful. He was the main favorite in the 2019 elections, and the Democrats managed to gain huge support in the House of Representatives and the Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Cependant, est-il encore favori aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comparing the&nbsp;approval ratings&nbsp;of the two presidents, Biden&#8217;s was 40% in the 164th week of his term, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous week, and Trump&#8217;s approval rating was 44.8% at the same point in his term, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The average approval rating of President Biden for the entire term is 43.9%, with weekly figures ranging from 38.4% to 54.4%. At the time of Trump&#8217;s presidency, his average approval rating for the entire term was 42.2%, with weekly figures ranging from 37.3% to 45.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on&nbsp;recent polls&nbsp;(March 24-26), we can see the following dynamics: approval by Americans of President Joe Biden&#8217;s effectiveness ranges from 40-42%, which is below the&nbsp;50% threshold&nbsp;that usually leads to re-election for incumbent presidents.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"582\" height=\"370\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04304.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23729\" style=\"object-fit:cover;width:620px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04304.png 582w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04304-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 582px) 100vw, 582px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En outre, Biden enregistre de faibles taux d\u2019approbation dans la gestion de cinq enjeux essentiels pour les \u00c9tats-Unis, dont un nouveau plancher de 28 % sur l\u2019immigration et des taux allant de 30 % \u00e0 40 % concernant la situation au Moyen-Orient entre Isra\u00ebl et le Hamas, la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re, l\u2019\u00e9conomie et la situation en Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Approval of how Biden manages the economy has modestly increased by four points among US adults since November, while his ratings on other issues have not changed significantly compared to previous figures in November (and August for immigration). Positive economic news from the United States on several fronts continued during Gallup&#8217;s survey period from February 1 to 20, including low unemployment, low inflation, and record stock market prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democrat voters mostly approve of how Biden manages the economy (75%), the situation in Ukraine (72%), and foreign affairs (69%). Almost a majority of Democrats approve of the president&#8217;s decisions on immigration (55%) and the situation in the Middle East (51%). However, Biden&#8217;s ratings have fallen regarding the situation in the Middle East (-9 points) and in Ukraine (-6 points), as well as regarding immigration (-7 points).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Few Republicans express approval of Biden on any of the issues surveyed, with immigration (3%) and the economy (4%) being the worst, while the situation in the Middle East (17%) and in Ukraine (16%) are the best. Republican ratings of Biden&#8217;s handling of immigration fell by six points since August.&nbsp;A recent Gallup poll&nbsp;showed that immigration, in particular, is a major reason why those who disapprove of Biden negatively assess his performance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"528\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04305.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23730\" style=\"width:671px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04305.png 528w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04305-16x12.png 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mais pourquoi le soutien des \u00e9lecteurs diminue-t-il progressivement tout en se maintenant \u00e0 un niveau relativement bas ?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019un des probl\u00e8mes de Biden est son \u00e2ge (81 ans au 20 novembre), ainsi que la faible \u00e9valuation par le public am\u00e9ricain de son action pr\u00e9sidentielle sur certains sujets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regarding the former, this issue serves as an opportunity for opponents to remind voters of Biden&#8217;s poor health and age. &#8220;If you&#8217;re too old to stand trial, you&#8217;re too old to be president,&#8221; said Alex Pfeiffer, one of Donald Trump&#8217;s advisors, after reading a report by Special Prosecutor Robert Gore detailing numerous memory lapses by Joe Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"660\" height=\"391\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23732\" style=\"width:365px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306.jpg 660w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306-600x355.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/\u0411\u0435\u0437-\u0437\u0430\u0433\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u043a\u04306-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for dissatisfaction with his policies, in recent years, the following &#8220;claims&#8221; can be highlighted: worsening of the childcare crisis, increased dependence of the US on Russian uranium, attempts to circumvent the Supreme Court&#8217;s decision on student loan forgiveness, inability to effectively address anti-Semitism and provide Ukraine with a clear path to NATO membership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Biden est \u00e9galement critiqu\u00e9 pour son inaction face \u00e0 un ballon espion chinois qui a pass\u00e9 une semaine dans l\u2019espace a\u00e9rien des \u00c9tats-Unis, ainsi que pour son incapacit\u00e9 \u00e0 apporter une r\u00e9ponse appropri\u00e9e aux attaques de groupes pro-iraniens contre les troupes am\u00e9ricaines. Des critiques pr\u00e9cises visent la politique migratoire inefficace, qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 un nombre record de passages ill\u00e9gaux \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re sud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une attention consid\u00e9rable a \u00e9t\u00e9 accord\u00e9e \u00e0 la suspension des livraisons \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine d\u2019armes essentielles pour contrer l\u2019agression russe, notamment de chars, de missiles \u00e0 longue port\u00e9e, d\u2019a\u00e9ronefs et de syst\u00e8mes de d\u00e9fense antia\u00e9rienne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, these factors, along with Republican attempts to tarnish Biden&#8217;s reputation, especially about six months before the elections (such as the&nbsp;attempt to impeach&nbsp;the president), created negative ratings and led to a decline in voter sympathy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-so-what-are-the-chances-of-each-candidate-winning\"><strong>Quelles sont donc les chances de victoire de chaque candidat ?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the Republican primaries, it&#8217;s no surprise that Donald Trump portrays himself as the temporarily disturbed incumbent president. For example, in 2016, his opponents failed in the face of his deliberate (and ideologically unorthodox) proclamations. His control over the Republican Party remains strong, as before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this illusion of authority and the complacency it breeds will be a challenge for the Republican candidate. Electoral realignments, which have pushed some ethnic minority voters away from the Democratic Party, hinder both directions, and Trump&#8217;s legal troubles repel college-educated Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les d\u00e9mocrates comptent sur les erreurs retentissantes du Parti r\u00e9publicain pour propulser leur candidat \u2014 dont le taux de popularit\u00e9 est presque le m\u00eame que celui de Trump \u2014 vers un second mandat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u2019un autre c\u00f4t\u00e9, Joe Biden obtient quelques succ\u00e8s dans la restauration de son ancienne image, mais l\u2019inflation persistante et la guerre \u00e0 Gaza d\u00e9tournent de lui d\u2019importants \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9mocrates pour d\u2019autres raisons. L\u2019\u00e9tat actuel de la course est tr\u00e8s \u00e9quilibr\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De plus, selon un sondage Bloomberg\/Morning Consult r\u00e9alis\u00e9 le 23 mars, le pr\u00e9sident Joe Biden a renforc\u00e9 sa position dans les \u00c9tats cl\u00e9s, obtenant le soutien dans six d\u2019entre eux sur sept. Toutefois, ces \u00c9tats sont si volatils que la situation peut \u00e9voluer au cours des sept prochains mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, at the moment, we can see that both candidates are imperfect and have a list of negative factors that could affect their results in November. Both their ratings are also ambiguous\u2014Trump&#8217;s support percentage is too low for victory, and Biden&#8217;s percentage is insufficient for reelection (in most cases, one needs to have over 50% for that).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, it&#8217;s very difficult to say definitively who will win voter sympathies. Unless there is some too-radical event that could tilt the scales in one direction, making predictions close to the truth will be almost impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-conclusions\"><strong>Conclusions<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming elections involving candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden are a key moment in American politics that will shape the country&#8217;s leadership trajectory and foreign policy. Thanks to the candidates&#8217; unwavering and, in many ways, polarized positions, the elections promise to be a battleground for the opposing visions of the two largest political forces in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Summing up the analysis of the 2024 election campaign and the chances of the two main contenders for the presidency of the United States, several key conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, despite Donald Trump&#8217;s undeniable leadership among Republican Party candidates and high levels of support among party members, his ratings among the entire electorate remain relatively low. This is due to numerous legal proceedings related to the former president, his often questionable rhetoric, and constant accusations of attempting to obstruct the democratic electoral process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Secondly, although President Biden does not have many scandals associated with his campaign, his support ratings remain relatively low. The reasons for this are the president&#8217;s age and health status, as well as the dissatisfaction of some voters with his policies in various areas, including migration, assistance to Ukraine, and the economic development of the country. However, a certain portion of the population still supports Biden, particularly due to his progressive ideas and the stability he seeks to provide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il importe de noter que les sondages pr\u00e9\u00e9lectoraux ne sont pas toujours des pr\u00e9visions exactes des r\u00e9sultats du vote. La situation peut changer en quelques mois en raison d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements impr\u00e9vus ou de campagnes \u00e9lectorales efficaces. Il serait donc pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 de tirer des conclusions d\u00e9finitives sur le futur vainqueur \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es actuelles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, the 2024 presidential race promises to be tense and competitive. Both candidates have strengths and weaknesses, as well as significant opposition in society. The decisive factors could be the effectiveness of election campaigns, the candidates&#8217; ability to unite voters around their ideas, and the avoidance of loud scandals and legal problems. The final choice will remain with the American electorate, who will have the opportunity to evaluate the candidates&#8217; platforms and their plans for the next presidential term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>Avertissement : les points de vue, r\u00e9flexions et opinions exprim\u00e9s dans les publications mises en ligne sur ce site n\u2019engagent que leurs auteurs et ne refl\u00e8tent pas n\u00e9cessairement ceux du Transatlantic Dialogue Center, de ses comit\u00e9s ou de ses organisations affili\u00e9es. Ces publications visent \u00e0 stimuler le dialogue et la discussion et ne repr\u00e9sentent pas les positions officielles du Transatlantic Dialogue Center ni de toute autre organisation \u00e0 laquelle les auteurs peuvent \u00eatre associ\u00e9s.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways This year, the season of primaries has reopened in the USA. Candidates must win or achieve good results in the primaries or caucuses of each state to obtain party delegates and participate in the November elections. Although the primaries will take place over half a year, over 70% of the delegates will be [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":23747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,56],"tags":[],"topic":[111,95],"class_list":["post-23718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-eng-north-america","topic-elections","topic-usa"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Biden and Trump\u2019s 2024 Campaign Strategies | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The pre-election analysis compared Biden\u2019s and Trump\u2019s 2024 campaign strategies, voter coalitions, legal controversies and uncertain electoral prospects.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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