{"id":23474,"date":"2024-04-18T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=23474"},"modified":"2025-08-12T18:38:12","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T15:38:12","slug":"ukraine-in-the-pre-election-campaign-in-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2024\/04\/18\/ukraine-in-the-pre-election-campaign-in-the-united-states\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019Ukraine dans la campagne \u00e9lectorale aux \u00c9tats-Unis"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-by-anna-mariia-mandzii\"><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"42177\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF en anglais\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF en anglais<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">2 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Principaux enseignements<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dynamiques et d\u00e9fis \u00e9lectoraux :<\/strong> <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong>&nbsp;est entrav\u00e9 par ses d\u00e9boires judiciaires et par la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d\u2019unifier une base r\u00e9publicaine fractur\u00e9e, tout en mettant en avant les r\u00e9ussites \u00e9conomiques de son pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent mandat afin de s\u00e9duire les \u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9\u00e7us par les politiques \u00e9conomiques actuelles. <strong>Joe Biden<\/strong>&nbsp;est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 la t\u00e2che cruciale de pr\u00e9server le soutien de groupes d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs d\u00e9terminants (Afro-Am\u00e9ricains, \u00e9lecteurs latinos, jeunes et femmes), sur fond de critiques de ses politiques \u00e9conomiques et migratoires. Sa campagne est en outre compliqu\u00e9e par le m\u00e9contentement suscit\u00e9 par sa position sur le conflit Isra\u00ebl-Hamas, en particulier parmi les jeunes \u00e9lecteurs et les importantes communaut\u00e9s des \u00c9tats pivots tels que le Michigan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>La question ukrainienne :<\/strong> The war in Ukraine emerges as a significant foreign policy challenge, testing the candidates&#8217; diplomatic strategies and their implications for U.S. global leadership. <strong>Biden&#8217;s approach<\/strong> repose sur le soutien \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine comme d\u00e9fense des valeurs d\u00e9mocratiques et de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale, tout en soulignant les avantages \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019aide des \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. <strong>Trump&#8217;s stance<\/strong> sur l\u2019Ukraine se caract\u00e9rise par son incoh\u00e9rence et laisse entrevoir un possible changement de la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re des \u00c9tats-Unis, susceptible d\u2019influer sur les perceptions am\u00e9ricaines et internationales du conflit. Ses propos sur l\u2019octroi de l\u2019aide et les tactiques de n\u00e9gociation r\u00e9v\u00e8lent une fracture id\u00e9ologique plus large au sein de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat am\u00e9ricain concernant l\u2019aide ext\u00e9rieure et l\u2019engagement international.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sentiment des \u00e9lecteurs et enjeux cl\u00e9s<\/strong>: les pr\u00e9occupations \u00e9conomiques, les politiques int\u00e9rieures et la mani\u00e8re dont les candidats g\u00e8rent les conflits \u00e9trangers, en particulier la situation en Ukraine, sont au c\u0153ur du sentiment des \u00e9lecteurs. Trump cherche \u00e0 tirer parti des perceptions positives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie sous son mandat, tandis que Biden met en avant son exp\u00e9rience en politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re et les retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques du soutien \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La polarisation autour de la question ukrainienne refl\u00e8te des divisions id\u00e9ologiques plus profondes aux \u00c9tats-Unis, avec des niveaux variables de soutien \u00e0 l\u2019aide am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine selon les affiliations politiques. Elle soul\u00e8ve \u00e9galement des questions sur l\u2019influence de la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re sur les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9lectoraux.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strat\u00e9gies \u00e9lectorales<\/strong>: Both candidates must strategically navigate the complex landscape of American politics, balancing the appeal to their bases with the need to address broader national and international concerns. The role of suburban voters and the impact of candidates&#8217; positions on issues like support for Ukraine and economic policies underscore the intricate calculus of electoral success.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"376\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-6-1024x376.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23476\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-6-1024x376.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-6-600x220.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-6-768x282.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-6-18x7.png 18w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-6.png 1239w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La campagne \u00e9lectorale aux \u00c9tats-Unis bat actuellement son plein, les candidats rivalisant pour attirer l\u2019attention et le soutien \u00e0 travers le pays. \u00c0 mesure que les primaires avancent, il para\u00eet de plus en plus probable que l\u2019\u00e9lection g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de novembre 2024 voie s\u2019affronter \u00e0 nouveau l\u2019ancien pr\u00e9sident Trump et le pr\u00e9sident sortant Biden. En outre, le pr\u00e9sident Biden a d\u00e9j\u00e0 obtenu un nombre important de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s lors des primaires, ce qui le place en position de candidat pr\u00e9sum\u00e9 du Parti d\u00e9mocrate. Sa d\u00e9signation officielle devrait intervenir lors de la Convention nationale d\u00e9mocrate en ao\u00fbt 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, les sondages d\u2019opinion indiquent que Trump et Biden sont au coude-\u00e0-coude en mati\u00e8re de soutien national de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat, avec de l\u00e9g\u00e8res fluctuations p\u00e9riodiques. Cette course serr\u00e9e rend difficile toute pr\u00e9diction certaine de l\u2019issue du scrutin. L\u2019\u00e9cart qui les s\u00e9pare est extr\u00eamement r\u00e9duit, et le caract\u00e8re dynamique de la politique signifie que la situation pourrait \u00e9voluer consid\u00e9rablement au cours de 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, despite the political landscape, Donald Trump faces a multitude of legal challenges. He has been charged with dozens of crimes across four separate cases, including two federal cases in New York and Georgia. Notably, in a civil fraud trial in New York, he was slapped with a staggering fine exceeding $450 million. In a recent development, the former president&#8217;s legal team disclosed that he could not post the required $454 million bond, which would have temporarily halted the proceedings against him in the latter case. This financial constraint adds a significant layer of complexity to his legal predicament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s worth highlighting that national polls reveal a stark divide in public opinion regarding the legal implications surrounding former President Trump. Approximately 34% of U.S. citizens, which accounts for a third of the population, advocate for granting Trump immunity from criminal prosecution. In contrast, a significant majority of 65% oppose such immunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of particular interest is the stance among Republican voters, where a notable 68% believe that Trump&#8217;s alleged illegal activities during his presidential tenure should not result in prosecution. This divergence in viewpoints underscores the deep-seated polarization within the electorate regarding accountability for past actions at the highest levels of government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"941\" height=\"365\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23477\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-7.png 941w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-7-600x233.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-7-768x298.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-7-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 941px) 100vw, 941px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-main-electoral-groups\"><strong>Principaux groupes \u00e9lectoraux<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour mieux comprendre la base de soutien des candidats, il est essentiel d\u2019examiner les int\u00e9r\u00eats des principaux groupes \u00e9lectoraux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Joseph Biden<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"487\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23478\" style=\"width:424px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-8.png 487w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-8-16x12.png 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 487px) 100vw, 487px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Biden is relying heavily on key electoral groups for support, including the black population, where approximately 76% are poised to vote for the incumbent president. Additionally, citizens of Latin American origin are showing a notable level of support at 53%, while the youth demographic aged 18-29 stands at 63%, and women at 52%. These figures, albeit slightly lower than those seen in the 2020 election, were instrumental in securing Biden&#8217;s victory. The primary concerns shaping citizens&#8217; views on the president&#8217;s policy predominantly revolve around economic matters, given widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of the economy. When examining women as a significant electoral group, it&#8217;s noteworthy that those prioritizing the issue of abortion tend to support Democratic Party candidates, while women whose focus lies on economic issues lean towards endorsing Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another electoral group whose support Joe Biden can garner includes representatives of the black population and citizens of Latin American origin. However, as previously mentioned, their percentage of support is somewhat diminished compared to the 2020 election. This decline can be attributed to widespread dissatisfaction with the president&#8217;s domestic policy, particularly regarding the perceived low likelihood of improving the financial situation of the population during his next presidential term. Furthermore, Biden\u2019s immigration policy and the instability on the Mexican border may pose a significant challenge to him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The war between Israel and Hamas and the United States&#8217; pro-Israeli policy has sparked dissatisfaction with the current administration among some young people aged 18 to 29. The state of Michigan provides a particularly striking example, where during the Democratic primaries, over 100,000 citizens, constituting 13% of those who voted, opted for &#8220;uncommitted&#8221; on their ballots, effectively expressing protest against Biden&#8217;s candidacy. This protest was orchestrated through the mobilization of citizen groups, notably within the Arab and Muslim communities, which wield significant influence in Michigan. Such activism presents a notable challenge for the incumbent president, given that Michigan is one of the pivotal swing states that often determine the outcome of the presidential election. It is noteworthy that Biden secured victory in Michigan in 2020, whereas Trump carried the state in 2016, rendering the situation highly unpredictable and potentially perilous for the Democrats. The events in Michigan have catalyzed similar actions in other states, such as Minnesota, where 19% of Democrats voted &#8220;uncommitted&#8221; in the Democratic primaries.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"553\" height=\"311\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23479\" style=\"width:333px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-9.png 553w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-9-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 553px) 100vw, 553px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>People spotted with the &#8216;Vote<\/em><br><em> Uncommitted&#8217; signs during an<\/em><br><em> rassemblement \u00e9lectoral<\/em><br><em> consacr\u00e9 au vote \u00ab uncommitted \u00bb \u00e0 Dearborn, dans le Michigan, le 27 f\u00e9vrier <\/em> <em>2024. Source : Reuters<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il est crucial de garder \u00e0 l\u2019esprit que le soutien \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl rev\u00eat une importance consid\u00e9rable au sein du Parti r\u00e9publicain, peut-\u00eatre m\u00eame davantage qu\u2019au sein du Parti d\u00e9mocrate. L\u2019ancien pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump n\u2019a exprim\u00e9 publiquement aucune sympathie pour les revendications palestiniennes, ni indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019il \u00e9tait dispos\u00e9 \u00e0 exercer davantage de pression sur Isra\u00ebl pour qu\u2019il accepte un cessez-le-feu, ni affirm\u00e9 son soutien \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Globalement, malgr\u00e9 l\u2019attention consid\u00e9rable accord\u00e9e au conflit Isra\u00ebl-Hamas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/us-news\/2024-01-09\/ty-article-magazine\/.premium\/pro-palestinian-americans-explain-why-biden-has-already-lost-their-vote\/0000018c-e983-df6f-ad8e-e9e7ca0d0000\">des experts soutiennent<\/a> that the majority of American voters prioritize domestic political issues, with foreign policy traditionally playing a less pivotal role in their decision-making process. While the conflict may have a notable impact on the voting behavior of Arab-Americans and certain left-leaning youth, it is unlikely to be the decisive factor for the broader electorate. Nevertheless, it is widely believed that due to the current president&#8217;s precarious standing, he may struggle to regain the support of voters he has lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"496\" height=\"372\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-11.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23481\" style=\"width:423px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-11.png 496w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-11-16x12.png 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 496px) 100vw, 496px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Continuing the discussion on how the Israel-Palestine conflict impacts the U.S. election campaign, the Republican Party is employing various tactics to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Biden&#8217;s actions. However, Trump&#8217;s rhetoric appears somewhat ambiguous: while criticizing the president&#8217;s handling of the situation, he claims he would have prevented the conflict if he were currently in the White House. Meanwhile, he has also emerged as one of the most pro-Israel presidents during his tenure, marked by the relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. However, he is characterized by the opposition to any U.S. intervention in foreign conflicts, which aligns with his isolationist ideology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In summarizing this topic, it&#8217;s important to recognize that widespread dissatisfaction with Biden&#8217;s handling of the Israel-Palestine situation won&#8217;t necessarily benefit Trump, yet could still pose challenges for the Democratic candidate&#8217;s electoral prospects. A key consideration is that voters who are disenchanted with the president&#8217;s approach might opt not to vote altogether or could choose a third-party candidate. This dynamic is particularly concerning in six pivotal swing states, including Michigan, with its significant group of Arab origin, as well as Arizona and Pennsylvania, which are characterized by a number of voters of Jewish descent. The problem is that not all Jewish citizens support Israel&#8217;s actions, nor do they endorse Biden&#8217;s policies, so a small shift in their general election choice could cost the incumbent president statewide votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Returning to the topic of electoral demographics, it&#8217;s evident that a significant portion of Donald Trump&#8217;s support base comprises white individuals, particularly those without higher education degrees. Conversely, citizens with higher levels of education and more progressive leanings are more inclined to align their votes with Joe Biden. Men represent another substantial segment of Trump&#8217;s voter base, while a considerable portion of women, particularly those critical of Trump&#8217;s controversial attitudes toward women and his stance on issues like abortion, tend to favor Biden. Recent statistics indicate that 58% of voters aged 65 and above are inclined to support the former president, although there are indications that support for Biden among this demographic may be on the rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once again, the economic factor emerges as a pivotal consideration, commanding attention from a substantial portion of American citizens. Recent statistics underscore this sentiment, revealing that 65% of voters perceived the economic landscape as relatively favorable during Trump&#8217;s presidency. In contrast, only 38% hold a similar view regarding the economy under Biden&#8217;s leadership. Moreover, when it comes to domestic policies, a notable divergence in public opinion is evident. Approximately 46% of voters regard Trump&#8217;s domestic policies as generally beneficial, contrasting with just 33% who express a comparable assessment of Biden&#8217;s initiatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, women and suburbanites are quite problematic for Trump&#8217;s electoral prospects. Traditionally, Republicans have garnered support in rural regions, while Democrats have maintained a stronghold in urban centers. However, predicting the inclinations of suburban residents has proven to be more intricate. Notably, they emerged as a primary focus of both parties&#8217; political campaigns in 2024. In 2020, Biden successfully secured majority support in the suburbs, a feat Trump did not achieve in 2016. This shift underscores the evolving dynamics within suburban demographics and highlights the increasing importance of this demographic group in shaping electoral outcomes. In general, suburbanites are more likely to possess college degrees, a demographic characteristic that often aligns them with Democratic sympathies. However, it&#8217;s intriguing to note that individuals with higher education residing in urban areas constituted a significant portion of Nikki Haley&#8217;s support base. Following her withdrawal from the candidacy and her decision not to openly endorse Trump, both presumptive nominees intensified efforts to court this segment of American society. Presently, Biden holds a slight edge over Trump in key suburban demographics. Among college-educated adults, Biden boasts a 46.6% approval rating, whereas Trump&#8217;s approval rating stands at just 39.7%. Consequently, some experts argue that success among suburbanites could emerge as a decisive factor in determining the victory of either candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for Nikki Haley, who withdrew from the presidential race without publicly endorsing Trump, the interesting thing is that a large part of her electorate will probably vote against Donald Trump. The Emerson College poll found that 63% of Haley supporters opt for Biden, while only 27% said they would vote for Trump and 10% were undecided. Because of this, Biden&#8217;s team is actively working to secure as much support for him as possible from those who wanted to cast their vote for Haley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-opinion-of-the-main-electoral-groups-regarding-aid-to-ukraine\"><strong>L\u2019avis des principaux groupes \u00e9lectoraux sur l\u2019aide \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"771\" height=\"588\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23483\" style=\"width:724px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-12.png 771w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-12-600x458.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-12-768x586.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-12-16x12.png 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>L\u2019avis des principaux groupes \u00e9lectoraux sur l\u2019aide \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. Source : GALLUP<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les chiffres globaux du soutien de l\u2019opinion publique am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine varient, notamment selon l\u2019affiliation politique, l\u2019origine ethnique et l\u2019\u00e2ge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En moyenne, les personnes qui jugent insuffisante l\u2019aide des \u00c9tats-Unis tendent \u00e0 \u00eatre plus instruites, plus ais\u00e9es et plus \u00e2g\u00e9es que celles qui consid\u00e8rent le niveau actuel comme ad\u00e9quat ou excessif. En outre, les femmes et les r\u00e9pondants blancs expriment g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement un soutien plus important \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine que les hommes et les r\u00e9pondants issus d\u2019autres groupes raciaux et ethniques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les opinions sur l\u2019ampleur du soutien que les \u00c9tats-Unis devraient apporter \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine divergent surtout selon l\u2019affiliation politique. Selon The Washington Post, plus de 75 % des d\u00e9mocrates soutiennent l\u2019Ukraine dans sa guerre contre la Russie, alors qu\u2019un peu plus de la moiti\u00e9 des r\u00e9publicains partagent cet avis.<br><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1257\" height=\"541\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-14.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-14.png 1257w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-14-600x258.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-14-1024x441.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-14-768x331.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-14-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1257px) 100vw, 1257px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>O\u00f9 vont les sympathies dans la guerre Russie-Ukraine (par \u00e2ge et affiliation politique). Avril 2022, f\u00e9v. 2023 et janv. 2024. Source : YouGov-Economist\/The Washington Post<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ukraine-in-the-election-campaign\"><strong>L\u2019Ukraine dans la campagne \u00e9lectorale<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il est bien connu que la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 le crit\u00e8re qui guide les citoyens am\u00e9ricains lors des \u00e9lections. En outre, une part importante de la population ne conna\u00eet pas suffisamment la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re des \u00c9tats-Unis et n\u2019y attache pas beaucoup d\u2019importance. Par cons\u00e9quent, le sujet de l\u2019Ukraine ne re\u00e7oit pas une grande attention dans les campagnes \u00e9lectorales des principaux candidats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the administration of Joseph Biden, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine represents a significant test, as it underscores the United States&#8217; capacity to address violations of international law and uphold universal principles of the modern world order on the global stage. The central themes of the campaign emphasize the current president&#8217;s commitment to defending democracy and human rights worldwide, as well as his dedication to supporting American allies in the face of threats posed by revisionist states like Russia. President Biden addresses the threat Russia poses to Europe and, by extension, to the United States, which has pledged to uphold European security under the NATO founding treaty. This messaging underscores the administration&#8217;s focus on safeguarding global stability and reinforcing the transatlantic alliance in the face of geopolitical challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, the president consistently underscores the tangible benefits derived by the United States from its support of Ukraine. These advantages include the erosion of the military and economic capabilities of a hostile state, which poses a potential threat to American national security. Notably, these efforts are conducted within the territory of another sovereign state without the direct involvement of American soldiers. Furthermore, over 90% of the financial and military assistance allocated to Ukraine ultimately circulates back to the United States. These funds are utilized to initiate the production of weaponry, thereby contributing to the replenishment of the American arsenal. This investment, equivalent to only 0.32% of U.S. GDP, not only fortifies the nation&#8217;s security but also stimulates job creation within the defense industry, fostering economic growth and bolstering domestic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De plus, selon le Chicago Council on Global Affairs, une nette majorit\u00e9 de citoyens am\u00e9ricains, 6 sur 10 (58 %), approuve la poursuite de l\u2019aide \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. Si les statistiques varient selon l\u2019appartenance politique \u2014 d\u00e9mocrates, r\u00e9publicains et \u00e9lecteurs ind\u00e9pendants \u2014, dans tous les cas, plus de 50 % des citoyens pr\u00e9conisent le maintien du soutien \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine dans son conflit avec la Russie. Il est \u00e0 noter que 60 % des personnes interrog\u00e9es estiment que l\u2019aide am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine est importante pour la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale et correspond aux int\u00e9r\u00eats des \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"739\" height=\"562\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-15.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23486\" style=\"width:655px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-15.png 739w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-15-600x456.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-15-16x12.png 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Soutien de l\u2019opinion publique am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 l\u2019envoi d\u2019armes \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. Source : Chicago Council on Global Affairs \/ Ipsos<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is indeed crucial to acknowledge that support for Ukraine within American society is diminishing over time, a trend substantiated by statistical evidence. Statements issued by Donald Trump, the radical right wing of the Republican Party, and other public figures and politicians who exploit anti-Ukrainian rhetoric for their political agendas exert a considerable influence on public opinion. Although the former president hasn&#8217;t extensively addressed Ukraine, the few statements he has made appear manipulative and lacking in clarity, making it challenging to draw definitive conclusions about potential White House policies regarding Ukraine should Trump be elected as the forty-seventh president of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most notable instances was Trump&#8217;s promise in May 2023 to halt the war in Ukraine within 24 hours by exerting pressure on both sides and compelling them to engage in negotiations. However, he did not provide specifics on how this could be achieved. Experts speculate that Trump would attempt to pressure Kyiv by abruptly cutting off all aid. Furthermore, Trump&#8217;s direct influence on the delay in the adoption of the military aid package to Ukraine by the US Congress, along with his exertion of pressure on certain representatives of Congress, has had an extremely adverse impact on public opinion in the USA. A significant portion of Trump&#8217;s supporters, particularly among the so-called MAGA movement, staunchly oppose providing any aid to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Plus r\u00e9cemment, Trump a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 exiger que l\u2019aide financi\u00e8re et militaire \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine soit accord\u00e9e sous forme de pr\u00eat. Cette position a recueilli le soutien de nombreux r\u00e9publicains, ainsi que d\u2019un petit nombre de d\u00e9mocrates. Ils esp\u00e8rent que cette approche facilitera enfin l\u2019adoption de cette d\u00e9cision cruciale, bloqu\u00e9e au Congr\u00e8s depuis des mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All of this suggests that even minor mentions of Ukrainian issues in a negative context or the implementation of certain manipulations strongly influence both public opinion and the provision of American aid to Ukraine. One way or another, the American public will not elect a president based on his foreign policy, but manipulations on this topic undermine Ukraine&#8217;s image and, accordingly, its ability to resist an aggressor on the battlefield, which directly affects the course of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-conclusions\"><strong>Conclusions<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sur la base des informations susmentionn\u00e9es, on peut d\u00e9duire que le soutien de l\u2019opinion publique \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine aux \u00c9tats-Unis est fortement influenc\u00e9 par divers facteurs d\u00e9mographiques et id\u00e9ologiques, dont l\u2019affiliation politique, l\u2019\u00e2ge, l\u2019origine ethnique, l\u2019\u00e9ducation et la localisation g\u00e9ographique. Les opinions sur la poursuite de l\u2019aide am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine pr\u00e9sentent notamment une forte polarisation selon ces facteurs, en particulier sous l\u2019effet de l\u2019orientation politique des \u00e9lecteurs am\u00e9ricains. Cette polarisation est encore aggrav\u00e9e par l\u2019int\u00e9gration de la question ukrainienne aux campagnes \u00e9lectorales des candidats \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidence des \u00c9tats-Unis, quoique dans une mesure assez limit\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The utilization of the Ukraine topic for political purposes has led to numerous manipulations, potentially undermining the level of support for Ukraine. There is a distinct possibility that such political maneuvering may contribute to a significant decrease in public support over time. Moreover, political battles over aid to Ukraine will likely persist until the general elections in November 2024, a scenario that is not conducive to Ukraine&#8217;s interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>Avertissement : les points de vue, pens\u00e9es et opinions exprim\u00e9s dans les articles publi\u00e9s sur ce site n\u2019appartiennent qu\u2019\u00e0 leurs auteurs et ne refl\u00e8tent pas n\u00e9cessairement ceux du Transatlantic Dialogue Center, de ses comit\u00e9s ou de ses organisations affili\u00e9es. Ces articles visent \u00e0 stimuler le dialogue et la discussion et ne repr\u00e9sentent pas les positions politiques officielles du Transatlantic Dialogue Center ni de toute autre organisation \u00e0 laquelle les auteurs peuvent \u00eatre associ\u00e9s.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways The election campaign in the United States is currently in full swing, with candidates vying for attention and support across the nation. As the primaries progress, it appears increasingly probable that we may witness a rematch between former President Trump and incumbent President Biden in the November 2024 general election. Moreover, President Biden [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":23489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[64,59,13,31,61,56],"tags":[],"topic":[99,111,93,86,95],"class_list":["post-23474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-central-eastern-europe-ger-analyses","category-eng-central-eastern-europe","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses","category-north-america-ger-analyses","category-eng-north-america","topic-disinformation","topic-elections","topic-geopolitics","topic-ukraine","topic-usa"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine in the Pre-Election Campaign in the United States<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 2024 pre-election analysis compared 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