{"id":2261,"date":"2022-03-24T21:45:29","date_gmt":"2022-03-24T19:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=2261"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:52:28","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:52:28","slug":"the-russian-army-is-choosing-the-trench-warfare-tactics-in-the-occupied-territories-of-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2022\/03\/24\/the-russian-army-is-choosing-the-trench-warfare-tactics-in-the-occupied-territories-of-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019arm\u00e9e russe choisit la tactique de la \u00ab guerre de tranch\u00e9es \u00bb dans les territoires ukrainiens occup\u00e9s"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Cela peut modifier et red\u00e9finir les tactiques de combat, donnant au conflit un caract\u00e8re long et prolong\u00e9. Dans ce cas, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe s\u2019enfoncera davantage dans la r\u00e9cession et de nouvelles sanctions seront introduites, notamment contre les r\u00e9serves d\u2019or et de devises de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie, d\u2019une valeur de 132 milliards de dollars. Afin de prolonger la guerre, la Russie inventera un pr\u00e9texte pour justifier une mobilisation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, car les ressources humaines engag\u00e9es dans la guerre contre l\u2019Ukraine s\u2019\u00e9puisent rapidement.
Si la Russie opte pour une guerre prolong\u00e9e, les semailles en Ukraine seront perturb\u00e9es. D\u00e8s \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, il est impossible d\u2019effectuer les travaux agricoles dans les volumes habituels, et l\u2019extension g\u00e9ographique des hostilit\u00e9s, in\u00e9vitable dans un tel sc\u00e9nario, mettra en p\u00e9ril la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des r\u00e9coltes. Par cons\u00e9quent, d\u00e8s cette ann\u00e9e, le monde sera confront\u00e9 \u00e0 un grave probl\u00e8me de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire et certains pays seront au bord de la famine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Menace de contamination radioactive de l\u2019Europe. La Russie combat pr\u00e8s de la centrale nucl\u00e9aire de Tchornobyl, tandis que les incendies de for\u00eats radioactives se poursuivent \u00e0 la suite des bombardements. D\u00e9j\u00e0, la concentration de c\u00e9sium et de strontium dans la r\u00e9gion de Kyiv d\u00e9passe les limites autoris\u00e9es. Le Kremlin expose toute l\u2019humanit\u00e9 \u00e0 un risque sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent sans avoir conscience des cons\u00e9quences possibles.
Russia is desperately looking for an excuse that will justify a nation-wide mobilization. This could be a provocation with chemical weapons, a terrorist attack or a massive shelling, the blame for which will be laid on Ukraine. Russia wants mass casualties among the Russians: their number should amount to hundreds or thousands – and it can decide on this bloody crime in order to continue the war.
Une scission se pr\u00e9pare au sein de l\u2019\u00e9lite dirigeante russe. Le Kremlin est all\u00e9 trop loin dans son aventure militaire sanglante, et Poutine cherchera in\u00e9vitablement des coupables. La disparition des \u00e9crans de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision du ministre de la D\u00e9fense de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie, S. Cho\u00efgou, fait notamment l\u2019objet de nombreuses discussions. On estime que, dans un avenir proche, la Russie proc\u00e9dera \u00e0 des licenciements massifs des responsables des structures et unit\u00e9s militaires directement ou indirectement impliqu\u00e9es dans la guerre contre l\u2019Ukraine. Quoi qu\u2019il en soit, cela entra\u00eenera des changements dans la nature des hostilit\u00e9s, et peut-\u00eatre du dialogue politique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Russia will gradually intensify censorship, suppress glasnost and freethinking. The current socio-political situation in the Russian Federation contributes to its transformation into the USSR analogue during the reign of N. Khrushchov, when there were significant internal repressions and direct confrontation with the West at the global level. Putin had initially underestimated the West’s response to its aggression against Ukraine and has now decided to go all the way until either the outcome of the war desired by the Kremlin is achieved or he suffers losses that would make it unable to continue the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The countries of Eastern Europe are in the greatest danger of starting a real war since 1945, especially Poland, the Baltic States and Moldova. The Russian military strategy envisages attacking NATO supply chains with military assistance for Ukraine, as well as the deployment of Russian troops at the border with Transnistria. Russia wants to completely cut off Ukraine from the sea and create a quasi-state from the PMR to Kharkov. If this succeeds, the Russians would create a provocation to justify their invasion of Moldova and Romania with further access to Bulgaria. Putin set out to return to Moscow’s control those countries that were once in the orbit of influence of the Russian Empire\/USSR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


La Russie recourt au mensonge et \u00e0 la d\u00e9sinformation sur tous les fronts. Contrairement aux paroles de Poutine selon lesquelles \u00ab la Russie ne vise pas \u00e0 occuper le territoire de l\u2019Ukraine \u00bb, les actions des troupes russes constituent une occupation classique et la cr\u00e9ation des conditions n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9gration rapide des territoires occup\u00e9s dans les secteurs \u00e9conomique, logistique, scientifique, \u00e9ducatif et informationnel de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie. Le Kremlin emploie la m\u00eame vieille tactique que l\u2019Empire russe : l\u2019absorption progressive des territoires adjacents. Le m\u00eame sc\u00e9nario attend la Pologne, les pays baltes et la Moldavie si l\u2019agression militaire russe s\u2019\u00e9tend \u00e0 ces pays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


China’s tactic is to wait until a winner is decided. The PRC will voice pro-Russian narratives, but will not openly support the Kremlin. Beijing is interested in weakening both Russia and the West, and war is the perfect geopolitical storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The Russian economy is facing the next stage of decline. It is predicted that the Russian economy will gradually return to the state of the 90s after the collapse of the USSR. All efforts will be directed towards the self-sufficient, and in those areas where this is impossible – towards refusal. At the same time, in case of \u201cfreezing\u201d of the war, some Western companies will try to find a loopholes to return to Russia.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This can change, reshape the tactics of hostilities, causing their long, protracted nature. In this case, the Russian economy will find itself in further recession, new sanctions will be introduced, in particular, against the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation worth 132 billion dollars. In order to prolong the war, Russia will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2262,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,31],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-2261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Russian army is choosing the \u201ctrench warfare\u201d tactics in the occupied territories of Ukraine - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. 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