{"id":18965,"date":"2023-08-23T13:20:14","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T10:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=18965"},"modified":"2025-08-05T13:51:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T10:51:25","slug":"navigating-geopolitical-currents-evolving-policies-in-the-black-sea-region-amidst-the-russo-ukrainian-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/fr\/2023\/08\/23\/navigating-geopolitical-currents-evolving-policies-in-the-black-sea-region-amidst-the-russo-ukrainian-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Naviguer dans les courants g\u00e9opolitiques : l\u2019\u00e9volution des politiques dans la r\u00e9gion de la mer Noire au c\u0153ur de la guerre russo-ukrainienne"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"37342\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Veuillez patienter\u2026\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF en anglais\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>T\u00e9l\u00e9charger le PDF en anglais<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">3 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading translation-block\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\"><strong>Principaux enseignements<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>D\u00e9gradation de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 dans la r\u00e9gion<\/strong>: Russian full-scale invasion, attacks on Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure, and an increase in NATO&#8217;s military mobility affected the security in the region.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Crise politique bulgare :<\/strong> Bulgaria is one of the most influenced countries by Russia in the EU. The full-scale invasion became one of the reasons for the country&#8217;s 2022-2023 political crisis. Only 34% of Bulgarians perceive Russia as a threat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Jeu de m\u00e9diation de la T\u00fcrkiye : <\/strong>La T\u00fcrkiye, actuellement plong\u00e9e dans une crise \u00e9conomique prolong\u00e9e, privil\u00e9gie sa stabilit\u00e9 et sa croissance \u00e9conomiques. Elle fournit simultan\u00e9ment des armes \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine et poursuit un commerce sans restriction avec la Russie. Elle met \u00e0 profit sa position g\u00e9ographique unique entre l\u2019OTAN et l\u2019Asie ainsi que son contr\u00f4le des d\u00e9troits de la mer Noire pour maintenir l\u2019\u00e9quilibre entre l\u2019Occident et la Russie.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>La Roumanie du c\u00f4t\u00e9 occidental :&nbsp;<\/strong>L\u2019influence russe en Roumanie compte parmi les plus faibles de la r\u00e9gion. La crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe renforce la pertinence de l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un hub \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Roumanie. La confiance de la population dans le partenariat avec l\u2019OTAN progresse r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1238\" height=\"431\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31.png 1238w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-600x209.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-1024x356.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-768x267.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-31-18x6.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1238px) 100vw, 1238px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Situ\u00e9e au carrefour de l\u2019Asie et de l\u2019Europe, la r\u00e9gion de la mer Noire est l\u2019une des zones commerciales les plus prometteuses. Les \u00c9tats riverains sont l\u2019Ukraine, la Moldavie, la Roumanie, la Bulgarie, la T\u00fcrkiye, la G\u00e9orgie et la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The region is quite fragmented due to historical tensions over territories and cultural distinctions. The fact of being divided between two hostile blocks during the Cold War left a trace on countries&#8217; political orientation, and even today the competing interests of NATO and Russia influence each country&#8217;s identity to varying degrees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faute de coh\u00e9sion r\u00e9gionale, les \u00c9tats riverains affrontent s\u00e9par\u00e9ment ces d\u00e9fis et bien d\u2019autres, chacun \u00e0 leur mani\u00e8re. C\u2019est pourquoi, lorsque l\u2019invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle a commenc\u00e9, les \u00e9lites politiques se sont retrouv\u00e9es \u00e0 la crois\u00e9e des chemins, press\u00e9es de clarifier leurs positions sur toute une s\u00e9rie de questions. Parmi elles, la relation avec la Russie et sa pr\u00e9sence dans la r\u00e9gion ont occup\u00e9 le devant de la sc\u00e8ne. Dans cet article, nous analysons l\u2019\u00e9volution des politiques int\u00e9rieures de la T\u00fcrkiye, de la Bulgarie et de la Roumanie, ainsi que les perspectives de leurs politiques \u00e9trang\u00e8res au regard des r\u00e9cents d\u00e9veloppements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-regional-dynamics-and-security-in-the-black-sea-region\">Dynamiques r\u00e9gionales et s\u00e9curit\u00e9 dans la r\u00e9gion de la mer Noire<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-f9faaab3 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Region&#8217;s economic ties can be characterized by the prevalence of bilateral treaties as they provide more space for agreement in terms of differences in economic and political models. This approach weakens effective interaction within initiatives, which encompasses the whole region (mainly Black Sea Economic Cooperation &#8211; BSEC).&nbsp; Besides, the EU membership of several regional countries increases market <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato-pa.int\/download-file?filename=\/sites\/default\/files\/2020-12\/035%20ESCTD%2020%20E%20rev%202%20fin%20-%20THE%20BLACK%20SEA%20REGION%20ECONOMIC%20AND%20GEO%20POLITICAL%20TENSIONS.pdf\">concurrence sur le march\u00e9<\/a><strong>.&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toutefois, malgr\u00e9 leur r\u00e9ticence apparente \u00e0 approfondir les liens r\u00e9gionaux, la mer qu\u2019ils partagent unit tous les pays et souligne leur d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 en mer Noire. Inutile de pr\u00e9ciser que l\u2019invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle lanc\u00e9e par la Russie a marqu\u00e9 la <strong>d\u00e9gradation de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale<\/strong>. Les attaques contre l\u2019Ukraine ont affect\u00e9 la libert\u00e9 de navigation en mer Noire, mis \u00e0 rude \u00e9preuve les capacit\u00e9s d\u2019exportation des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales et rendu visibles des explosions et des tirs de missiles pr\u00e8s des fronti\u00e8res de l\u2019OTAN. En particulier, une r\u00e9cente s\u00e9rie d\u2019attaques de drones russes contre des silos \u00e0 grains et des ports ukrainiens se d\u00e9roule dangereusement pr\u00e8s de la Roumanie. De plus, la destruction du barrage de Kakhovka par les forces russes dans le sud de l\u2019Ukraine a suscit\u00e9 des inqui\u00e9tudes quant au m\u00e9pris potentiel des cons\u00e9quences environnementales dans la poursuite d\u2019objectifs militaires dans la r\u00e9gion touch\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s hard to overestimate the impact of the war on the region. The reduction in the number of available Ukrainian ports and the ban on access to EU ports for Russian vessels led to the decline of the maritime industry. In contrast, the importance of other regional states grew amid the success of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the EU\u2019s diversification of energy imports, emphasizing the vitality of the Black Sea as a transit corridor. The desire to devise new trade routes bypassing Russia has given impetus to the trend of increasing trade flows between Europe and Asia. Moreover, the increase in NATO&#8217;s military mobility in the Black Sea contributes to the militarization of the region and tensions between the states (e.g., Russia&#8217;s damage to the American MQ-9 Reaper drone). Despite the fact that all the states of the region are under the influence of the consequences of the war, the internal politics of each country demonstrates a unique reaction to large-scale geopolitical changes due to its background of interaction with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1048\" height=\"519\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18968\" style=\"object-fit:contain;width:733px;height:363px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32.png 1048w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-600x297.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-1024x507.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-32-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1048px) 100vw, 1048px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-from-east-to-west-tracing-bulgaria-s-political-journey-amidst-russian-influence\">From East to West: Tracing Bulgaria&#8217;s Political Journey Amidst Russian Influence<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-adff9063 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Bulgarie est l\u2019un des pays de l\u2019UE les plus influenc\u00e9s par la Russie. Plusieurs raisons expliquent cette situation difficile. La Bulgarie d\u00e9pendait fortement des importations russes de gaz et de p\u00e9trole (en 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/chart\/26768\/dependence-on-russian-gas-by-european-country\/\">77 % du gaz import\u00e9<\/a> was Russian). This fact, like in many cases of other countries, determined Russia\u2019s successful political penetration in Sofia. Bulgaria is one of the most corrupt countries in the EU, and Russia&#8217;s influence can be spotted in the judicial and other branches of government. Besides, the historical attachment of Bulgaria to Russia is one of the strongest within the former Eastern Bloc. During the Cold War, Bulgaria was one of the most trusted allies of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.populismstudies.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Download-Report-on-Bulgaria.pdf\">Union sovi\u00e9tique<\/a>. <br>La guerre en Ukraine a remis en lumi\u00e8re la question de l\u2019influence russe excessive et contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9t\u00e9riorer la stabilit\u00e9 politique int\u00e9rieure, culminant avec la crise politique de 2022-2023. La volatilit\u00e9 croissante r\u00e9sultant de l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 \u00e0 former un gouvernement a notamment \u00e9t\u00e9 aliment\u00e9e par des divergences concernant le <a href=\"http:\/\/prismua.org\/en\/octopus_bulgaria\/\">niveau de soutien<\/a> \u00e0 apporter \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine et sur la mani\u00e8re de traiter avec la Russie. La gravit\u00e9 de la situation \u00e9tait soulign\u00e9e par le fait que la Bulgarie est une r\u00e9publique parlementaire. Enfin, apr\u00e8s une cinqui\u00e8me tentative, les deux principales forces \u00e9lectorales, GERB-SDS et Nous continuons le changement-Bulgarie d\u00e9mocratique, sont parvenues \u00e0 un <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurointegration.com.ua\/articles\/2023\/05\/24\/7162338\/\">accord<\/a>, mais au lieu d\u2019une coalition, une rotation des gouvernements a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise en place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized is-style-default\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"752\" height=\"423\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18969\" style=\"width:416px;height:234px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33.png 752w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-33-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 752px) 100vw, 752px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Borys Boyko, chef du parti politique GERB<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si le gouvernement n\u2019avait pas de nouveau \u00e9t\u00e9 form\u00e9, la probabilit\u00e9 que des forces favorables \u00e0 la Russie rejoignent la coalition au pouvoir aurait augment\u00e9. L\u2019entr\u00e9e de tels partis compliquerait l\u2019exportation d\u2019armes vers l\u2019Ukraine. Des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents existent d\u00e9j\u00e0 : des partis prorusses ont entrav\u00e9 des d\u00e9cisions b\u00e9n\u00e9fiques pour l\u2019Ukraine. En particulier, la d\u00e9cision de la Bulgarie d\u2019envoyer une aide militaire \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine en secret, plut\u00f4t qu\u2019ouvertement, a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 provoqu\u00e9e par la pr\u00e9sence de forces prorusses dans la coalition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fac2cdea wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fac2cdea wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result of the last election, European-oriented forces have assumed power. However, the last turbulent year of political struggle didn\u2019t pass without a trace for voters. The inability of GERB-SDS and We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (whose programs are similar and both pro-western) to form a government due to interparty squabbles has already led to certain disappointment in the people. Political uncertainty obstructed the decision-making process necessary to mitigate the domestic economic crisis. Amid the inability of pro-western parties to cooperate, the ratings of the openly pro-Putin party &#8220;Renaissance&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/europe-poll-of-polls\/bulgaria\/\">grew<\/a>. The crisis even reached the point when the &#8220;Renaissance&#8221; rose to third place during the last election poll (compared to a 2% rating in the 2021 general election).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans ce contexte, l\u2019opinion publique \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019Ukraine et de l\u2019Occident s\u2019est d\u00e9grad\u00e9e. Pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 des r\u00e9pondants (49 %) ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 en 2023 que les sanctions contre la Russie \u00e9taient inefficaces, tandis que seuls 44 % ont imput\u00e9 \u00e0 la Russie la responsabilit\u00e9 de mener la guerre (contre 50 % en 2022). Le soutien \u00e0 l\u2019adh\u00e9sion \u00e0 l\u2019OTAN a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 faible par rapport aux autres pays d\u2019Europe centrale et orientale. Aujourd\u2019hui, les sondages montrent que <strong>seuls 34 %<\/strong> des Bulgares per\u00e7oivent la Russie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globsec.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2023-05\/GLOBSEC%20TRENDS%202023.pdf\">comme une menace<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s important to note that the latest political crisis in Bulgaria is far from being exclusively a confrontation between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces. One of the characteristic features of Bulgarian politics after the end of the Cold War became \u201cfluctuation\u201d between the West and Russia. Borys Boyko, three times Prime Minister of Bulgaria, was following the politics of compromising between pro-EU and pro-Russian attitudes. Some time should pass to see whether the new government will also stick to such a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurointegration.com.ua\/rus\/news\/2021\/12\/10\/7131440\/\">politique<\/a>, compte tenu des r\u00e9sultats des derni\u00e8res enqu\u00eates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"488\" height=\"264\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-34.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18972\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-34.png 488w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-34-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Kirill Petkov et Asen Vaskov, dirigeants du parti politique<\/em><br><em> Nous continuons le changement<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e9anmoins, la victoire des partis pro-europ\u00e9ens constitue une perc\u00e9e et porte d\u00e9j\u00e0 ses fruits. \u00c0 ce jour, les r\u00e9cents changements politiques en Bulgarie ont eu un effet positif sur l\u2019aide \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine. En effet, la r\u00e9cente d\u00e9cision de Sofia d\u2019envoyer directement des armes \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine constitue le premier cas officiel d\u2019exportation d\u2019armes depuis 2022. Les perspectives des nouvelles d\u00e9cisions gouvernementales sont donc prometteuses pour Kyiv. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, le modus vivendi r\u00e9cemment trouv\u00e9 r\u00e9duit l\u2019influence des partis prorusses au sein du gouvernement, sans pour autant la neutraliser.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-turkiye-s-delicate-balancing-act-a-mediation-game-for-the-sake-of-national-interests\">L\u2019\u00e9quilibre d\u00e9licat de la T\u00fcrkiye : un jeu de m\u00e9diation au service des int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La position de la T\u00fcrkiye dans la guerre russo-ukrainienne reste double : tout en poursuivant un commerce sans restriction avec la Russie, elle fournit \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine d\u2019importantes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.populismstudies.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Download-Report-on-Turkey.pdf\">armes<\/a>. Since the beginning of the invasion, President Erdo\u011fan has stated multiple times about a positive relationship between T\u00fcrkiye and Russia and that he does not intend to take sides in this conflict. The declared attitude of \u201csatisfying the needs of all parties involved\u201d is caused by the peculiarities of the country&#8217;s domestic and foreign policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La guerre en Ukraine a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec la crise \u00e9conomique prolong\u00e9e en T\u00fcrkiye. Dans ce contexte, les autorit\u00e9s turques cherchent la mani\u00e8re la plus avantageuse de pr\u00e9server leur niveau de soutien au sein de la population. Selon une enqu\u00eate men\u00e9e \u00e0 la veille de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle, les Turcs sont plus pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les turbulences \u00e9conomiques que par la guerre en Ukraine. Les dirigeants de la T\u00fcrkiye jugent donc souhaitable de donner la priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 la stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et \u00e0 la <a href=\"https:\/\/mind.ua\/en\/publications\/20257242-turkish-rift-how-will-erdoand287ans-victory-or-defeat-in-the-presidential-race-affect-ukraine%20https:\/tradingeconomics.com\/turkey\/imports-by-country\">croissance<\/a>. Il est clair que rompre les liens \u00e9conomiques avec la Russie (le plus grand importateur pour Ankara), tout en d\u00e9pendant du p\u00e9trole et du gaz russes import\u00e9s, n\u2019est pas la voie pour am\u00e9liorer la situation int\u00e9rieure. De plus, la T\u00fcrkiye comprend pleinement sa position unique entre l\u2019OTAN et l\u2019Asie, son \u00e9loignement du monde arabe et la valeur du contr\u00f4le des principaux d\u00e9troits de la mer Noire, qui offre \u00e0 Ankara la possibilit\u00e9 de suivre sa propre voie interm\u00e9diaire. Une telle approche de la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re influence sans aucun doute l\u2019opinion publique en T\u00fcrkiye. La rh\u00e9torique hostile d\u2019Erdo\u011fan envers l\u2019Occident a conduit \u00e0 l\u2019 <strong>augmentation des sentiments<\/strong> <strong>favorables \u00e0 la Russie<\/strong> au sein de la <a href=\"https:\/\/pomed.org\/publication\/why-turkish-citizens-blame-the-united-states-for-ukraine-war\/\">population<\/a>. Dans un sondage de 2023 sur l\u2019attitude envers la Russie, 14 % ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que la Russie \u00e9tait une alli\u00e9e, tandis que la majorit\u00e9 des Turcs (55 %) consid\u00e9rait Moscou comme un <a href=\"https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/publication\/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine\">partenaire n\u00e9cessaire<\/a>. En outre, bien que la perception des \u00c9tats-Unis comme une menace diminuait progressivement (42 % en 2022 contre 64 % en 2019), davantage de personnes \u00e9taient hostiles aux \u00c9tats-Unis qu\u2019\u00e0 la Russie en 2022 (42 % contre <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khas.edu.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/TDP_2022_ENG_FINAL_07.09.22.pdf\">30,5%<\/a><strong>).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18977\" style=\"width:737px;height:415px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35.png 1000w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-35-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having fewer disputes with Moscow and occasionally dissenting with the West, Ankara seems to be a perfect match to fulfill the role of broker in what Russia calls \u201cWest-Russia confrontation\u201d. However, to safeguard its balancing position, T\u00fcrkiye should prove its appropriateness to perform awaited tasks. Such an approach to foreign policy requires tangible results of mediation efforts. Hence, Turkiye&#8217;s notable achievements in mediation, exemplified by the successful organization of the Grain Deal Initiative and a fruitful exchange of prisoners of war, stand as vital pillars of its foreign policy strategy. Erdo\u011fan\u2019s \u201cspecial relationship\u201d with Putin is another essential aspect of the strategy, as it enables the use of geopolitical advantages for T\u00fcrkiye. Thus, Erdo\u011fan\u2019s \u201cspecial relationship\u201d with Putin is essential for the state\u2019s foreign policy, enabling the use of its geopolitical advantages. That&#8217;s why when Russia declared its exit from the Grain Deal, it dealt the blow to Ankara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for the prospects, T\u00fcrkiye is likely to continue its ambiguous politics, especially since the West is not pressing that hard on its officials regarding the imposition of sanctions. One of the most possible reasons why its politics might change is the tightening of the West&#8217;s position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-unhealed-wounds-romania-s-stalwart-support-for-ukraine-s-integrity\"><strong>Unhealed Wounds: Romania&#8217;s Stalwart Support for Ukraine&#8217;s Integrity<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Malgr\u00e9 les diff\u00e9rends sur les fronti\u00e8res d\u2019\u00c9tat ukraino-roumaines, dont le point culminant s\u2019est situ\u00e9 dans la premi\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie du XXIe si\u00e8cle, la Roumanie a soutenu l\u2019int\u00e9grit\u00e9 de l\u2019Ukraine et rejet\u00e9 officiellement la proposition russe <a href=\"https:\/\/lb.ua\/world\/2018\/09\/07\/406861_temni_chasi_vidnosinah.html\">de diviser l\u2019Ukraine<\/a>. Les relations entre Moscou et Bucarest sont assombries par la perte de la r\u00e9gion de Bessarabie pendant la Seconde Guerre mondiale et son rattachement \u00e0 l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique. La question n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9solue par la d\u00e9claration d\u2019ind\u00e9pendance de la Moldavie. En r\u00e9alit\u00e9, la lutte d\u2019influence s\u2019est poursuivie, \u00e0 une exception pr\u00e8s : la Russie recourt \u00e0 la force pour imposer son ordre en Moldavie. Bien que l\u2019unification de la Moldavie et de la Roumanie surgisse parfois dans la rh\u00e9torique politique roumaine, aucune action n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 entreprise pour la concr\u00e9tiser. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cela s\u2019explique non seulement par le respect par la Roumanie du comportement appropri\u00e9 li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019adh\u00e9sion \u00e0 l\u2019UE, mais aussi parce qu\u2019une telle union pourrait mener \u00e0 un nouveau conflit avec la Russie. Apr\u00e8s que la Transnistrie, soutenue par les Russes, a fait une d\u00e9claration formelle de souverainet\u00e9 vis-\u00e0-vis de la Moldavie, le potentiel de ce conflit gel\u00e9 p\u00e8se sur la Roumanie telle une \u00e9p\u00e9e de Damocl\u00e8s. <a href=\"https:\/\/cms.law\/en\/media\/international\/files\/publications\/publications\/romania-as-an-energy-hub-in-southeastern-europe-loredana-mihailescu-0.3-mb\">La Moldavie fragment\u00e9e<\/a> multinationale peut \u00eatre une proie facile pour les Russes, qui peuvent ainsi \u00e9tendre encore leur influence et apporter de l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 dans la r\u00e9gion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Russia&#8217;s influence<\/strong> en Roumanie est <strong>parmi les plus faibles de la r\u00e9gion<\/strong>. Moscow lacks typical instruments to impose its order: Russian ethnic minorities are not numerous, and corruption and related pro-Russian political parties are not dominant issues of the domestic agenda. What&#8217;s more important, Romania is one of the most independent states in terms of gas import. The energy crisis in Europe encouraged the increase of exploration of energy resources in the EU countries, and the idea of Romania becoming an energy hub is gaining relevance. After all, it is Romania that exports gas to Moldova to decrease Chi\u0219in\u0103u\u2019s overreliance on Russia\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/newdirection.online\/2018-publications-pdf\/ND-Report-RomaniaRussia-preview%28low-res%29.pdf\">ressources<\/a><strong>. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La Roumanie consid\u00e8re l\u2019OTAN comme le <strong>meilleur garant de son int\u00e9grit\u00e9<\/strong>. De r\u00e9cents sondages montrent que la confiance du public dans le partenariat avec l\u2019OTAN progresse r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globsec.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2023-05\/GLOBSEC%20TRENDS%202023.pdf\">89%<\/a> en 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1010\" height=\"568\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18978\" style=\"width:681px;height:383px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36.png 1010w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-36-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1010px) 100vw, 1010px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depuis les ann\u00e9es 1990, ayant choisi la voie du rapprochement avec l\u2019OTAN, la Roumanie suit la voie de la d\u00e9mocratie et de l\u2019unit\u00e9 transatlantique. L\u2019invasion russe n\u2019a fait qu\u2019approfondir davantage ces relations. \u00c0 l\u2019occasion des 25 ans du partenariat strat\u00e9gique entre la Roumanie et les \u00c9tats-Unis, les diplomates des deux parties en ont jug\u00e9 les effets tr\u00e8s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/the-united-states-and-romania-strategic-partners-for-25-years\/\">b\u00e9n\u00e9fiques<\/a>. Bucharest\u2019s recent joining G7 joint declaration of support for Ukraine is a direct consequence of this trend.&nbsp; Hence, Romania&#8217;s support for Ukraine will continue to be one of the strongest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-conclusion\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By waging war, Russia attracted the attention of the world to the region, the extent of which was previously unimaginable. Before the war, the region was not viewed as strategic, even for NATO. Hostilities against Ukraine led to NATO adopting a course for strengthening military presence in the region &#8211; something Russia claimed to be opposed to before waging the war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019attitude envers la Russie et les questions relatives \u00e0 leur propre s\u00e9curit\u00e9 ont \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans tous les pays de la r\u00e9gion. Dans la plupart des cas, l\u2019influence russe diminue progressivement, bien que les enqu\u00eates montrent que la menace est loin d\u2019\u00eatre totalement \u00e9limin\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9finitifs des \u00e9lections, le nouveau gouvernement bulgare semble pr\u00eat \u00e0 poursuivre la lutte contre la corruption tout en accordant suffisamment d\u2019attention \u00e0 l\u2019opposition. La politique \u00e9quilibr\u00e9e de la T\u00fcrkiye fait partie de sa mani\u00e8re d\u2019exploiter ses caract\u00e9ristiques g\u00e9opolitiques et est donc moins susceptible de changer consid\u00e9rablement. Parmi les pays analys\u00e9s, la Roumanie est le plus hostile \u00e0 la Russie. Les tentatives de la Russie pour obtenir un contr\u00f4le accru sur Chi\u0219in\u0103u constituent une menace pour Bucarest. Mais plus la Russie tente de modifier l\u2019\u00e9quilibre des pouvoirs dans la r\u00e9gion, plus la Roumanie se rapproche de l\u2019OTAN. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La guerre en Ukraine a pouss\u00e9 les \u00c9tats riverains \u00e0 revoir leur attitude envers la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re et les affaires int\u00e9rieures. La mer Noire continue d\u2019ouvrir des possibilit\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats de la r\u00e9gion, qu\u2019il s\u2019agisse de la route de l\u2019Initiative c\u00e9r\u00e9ali\u00e8re ou des champs gaziers. En temps de troubles, les \u00c9tats sont devenus plus adaptables, mais ils ne sont toujours pas pleinement pr\u00eats \u00e0 un changement radical. La guerre n\u2019a donc pas entra\u00een\u00e9 de grand basculement g\u00e9opolitique dans la politique r\u00e9gionale : le conflit a d\u2019abord stimul\u00e9 un approfondissement des politiques choisies, dont nous devons encore observer les r\u00e9sultats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><em>Avertissement : les points de vue, pens\u00e9es et opinions exprim\u00e9s dans les articles publi\u00e9s sur ce site n\u2019appartiennent qu\u2019\u00e0 leurs auteurs et ne refl\u00e8tent pas n\u00e9cessairement ceux du Transatlantic Dialogue Center, de ses comit\u00e9s ou de ses organisations affili\u00e9es. Ces articles visent \u00e0 stimuler le dialogue et la discussion et ne repr\u00e9sentent pas les positions politiques officielles du Transatlantic Dialogue Center ni de toute autre organisation \u00e0 laquelle les auteurs peuvent \u00eatre associ\u00e9s.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, the Black Sea region is one of the most promising trade zones. The littoral states include Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, T\u00fcrkiye, Georgia, and the Russian Federation. The region is quite fragmented due to historical tensions over territories and cultural distinctions. The fact of being divided [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":19003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,13,58],"tags":[],"topic":[93,110,84,87,86,92],"class_list":["post-18965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eng-central-eastern-europe","category-en-analyses","category-eng-western-europe","topic-geopolitics","topic-nato","topic-russia","topic-security","topic-ukraine","topic-war"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Black Sea Security Amid Russia\u2019s War on Ukraine | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Russia\u2019s invasion destabilized Black Sea security as Bulgaria faced political crisis, T\u00fcrkiye balanced between sides and Romania deepened 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