{"id":5606,"date":"2022-07-07T15:52:12","date_gmt":"2022-07-07T12:52:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=5606"},"modified":"2025-08-05T16:59:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T13:59:35","slug":"tdc-visiting-fellow-frank-ledwidge-ukraine-is-losing-this-war-at-the-moment-the-west-needs-to-massively-step-up-its-military-aid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/es\/2022\/07\/07\/tdc-visiting-fellow-frank-ledwidge-ukraine-is-losing-this-war-at-the-moment-the-west-needs-to-massively-step-up-its-military-aid\/","title":{"rendered":"Socio invitado de TDC Frank Ledwidge: Ucrania est\u00e1 perdiendo esta guerra en este momento. Occidente debe aumentar su ayuda militar de forma masiva"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A continuaci\u00f3n se muestra el texto de Frank Ledwidge, socio invitado de TDC para The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Durante algunas semanas he estado en Kyiv, en parte como socio invitado del destacado grupo de expertos ucraniano Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/a>. Kyiv es una ciudad asombrosamente elegante y hermosa; una capital europea de primera divisi\u00f3n. Las advertencias regulares de ataques a\u00e9reos enviadas en su tel\u00e9fono, as\u00ed como las funestas sirenas al estilo de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, ahora se ignoran en gran medida, a pesar del ataque ocasional con misiles<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los caf\u00e9s y restaurantes est\u00e1n abiertos y en gran parte ocupados. Fue en uno de estos \u00faltimos donde conoc\u00ed a un alto funcionario del gobierno ucraniano que me hab\u00eda contactado, expresando su aprobaci\u00f3n por algo que hab\u00eda dicho en los medios internacionales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSabes, \u00bfverdad?, que el a\u00f1o que viene por estas fechas, un soldado ruso podr\u00eda estar sentado justo donde t\u00fa est\u00e1s\u201d, dijo despu\u00e9s de una introducci\u00f3n brusca. \u201cEstamos perdiendo esta guerra\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tiene raz\u00f3n. Hubo grandes victorias en Kyiv, Chernihiv y Kharkhiv. Pero con los reveses en Donetsk y Luhansk<\/a>, se est\u00e1 dando cuenta de que es probable que esta sea una guerra muy sangrienta, que dure a\u00f1os. El litoral del pa\u00eds<\/a> est\u00e1 en manos de los invasores y sus ports<\/a> est\u00e1n bloqueados. Se avecina una grave crisis econ\u00f3mica<\/a> tanto en Ucrania como en otros lugares.<\/a>Si bien Ucrania no est\u00e1 ganando, est\u00e1 perdiendo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La cumbre de la OTAN<\/a> de la semana pasada declar\u00f3 que ayudar\u00eda a los estados miembrosadecuadamente<\/a>a brindar apoyo a Ucrania, al tiempo que reconoce la \"situaci\u00f3n espec\u00edfica\" de cada miembro, presumiblemente la situaci\u00f3n espec\u00edfica de algunos pa\u00edses que no est\u00e1n dispuestos a contribuir de manera \u00fatil a la defensa de Ucrania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La asistencia en forma de armamento todav\u00eda se enumera, desglosa y cuenta cuidadosamente,<\/a> haciendo el trabajo de los oficiales de inteligencia rusos por ellos, brind\u00e1ndoles a menudo informaci\u00f3n precisa sobre el n\u00famero y las capacidades de las armas proporcionadas por los donantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de todo eso, las armas occidentales han ayudado a Ucrania a mantener la l\u00ednea, y es probable que contin\u00fae haci\u00e9ndolo. Sin embargo, no podr\u00e1n imponer costos estrat\u00e9gicamente significativos a los l\u00edderes de Rusia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entre 20.000 y 30.000 soldados muertos y un tercio de la fuerza de tanques de Rusia<\/a> convertida en chatarra son irrelevancias sin sentido para Vladimir Putin. \u00bfGenerales despedidos<\/a> o asesinados<\/a>? Mucho m\u00e1s de donde vinieron. El objetivo ruso original<\/a> de neutralizar a Ucrania como estado viable se est\u00e1 logrando.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Objetivos estrat\u00e9gicos<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Para Ucrania, como para Rusia, el frente estrat\u00e9gico clave est\u00e1 en el sur. Retomar Kherson<\/a> la antigua ciudad en la costa del Mar Negro que Rusia parece estar planeando anexar<\/a> como parte de su plan para \"devolver las tierras rusas\"<\/a>, ser\u00eda un verdadero golpe para el Kremlin. Las fuerzas ucranianas que ingresan a Crimea, a un corto viaje en tanque desde Kherson, enviar\u00edan el mensaje: \"As\u00ed es como se ve la derrota estrat\u00e9gica\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
Una planta hidroel\u00e9ctrica en la regi\u00f3n de Kherson. Retomar esta regi\u00f3n es un objetivo clave para Ucrania. EPA-EFE\/Sergei Ilnitsky<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As\u00ed que intentarlo tendr\u00eda importancia tanto militar como pol\u00edtica. Pero el problema de Ucrania, tal como est\u00e1n las cosas, es que carece del poder de combate<\/a> para estar seguro del \u00e9xito. La tendencia del suministro de armas no se acerca a lo que se requerir\u00e1 para garantizar la recuperaci\u00f3n de las tierras ucranianas<\/a> y el consiguiente fin de esta guerra, mediante negociaci\u00f3n o decisi\u00f3n de armas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hace algunas semanas, EE. UU. declararon como objetivo<\/a> que Rusia est\u00e9 \u201cdebilitada en la medida en que no pueda hacer el tipo de cosas que ha hecho al invadir Ucrania\u201d. Todo eso est\u00e1 muy bien, pero el problema son los medios que ha elegido Occidente para lograrlo: desgaste a largo plazo, en lugar de una derrota decisiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se busca: mayor potencia de fuego<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lo que Occidente llama su \"arsenal de democracia\" est\u00e1 abierto<\/a> , pero apenas. Hay serias dudas sobre si Estados Unidos se toman en serio sus objetivos de guerra. La pregunta es: \u00bfEE.UU. quieren que los ucranianos ganen o quiere que sangren durante a\u00f1os?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si es lo primero, se deben tomar medidas muy pronto para suministrar los miles de tanques M1 Abrams<\/a>, veh\u00edculos de combate blindados Bradley<\/a>, artiller\u00eda, helic\u00f3pteros de ataque<\/a> y otros sistemas, muchos de los cuales est\u00e1n actualmente almacenados en lugar de en servicio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Ukrainian
Se busca ayuda: el presidente ucraniano, Volodymyr Zelensky, es incansable en sus solicitudes de ayuda militar occidental. EPA-EFE\/Sergey Dolzhenko<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

No es necesario agotar ninguna unidad de las fuerzas armadas de EE. UU. Todo este equipo fue, por cierto, dise\u00f1ado espec\u00edficamente para destruir el equipo que ahora despliegan los rusos. La promesa de Biden de \"ayudar a Ucrania tanto tiempo como sea necesario<\/a>tiene una sensaci\u00f3n de doble filo. Sin un cambio radical en la entrega de armas, \u201ctanto como sea necesario\u201d, una frase que hemos escuchado antes de los l\u00edderes occidentales sobre Iraq<\/a> y Afghanistan<\/a> podr\u00eda indicar mucho tiempo. Por supuesto, lamentablemente, existe la posibilidad de aburrimiento occidental con una larga guerra<\/a> en primer lugar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deben comenzar los preparativos para pasar de los sistemas de armas de alimentaci\u00f3n por goteo en cifras individuales a n\u00fameros de cientos.<\/a>Ucrania tambi\u00e9n requiere un r\u00e9gimen extenso y sistem\u00e1tico para formar y entrenar brigadas capaces de imponer ese costo estrat\u00e9gico realmente alto a Putin. No parece que se planee ning\u00fan sistema de \"entrenamiento y equipamiento\" masivo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De vuelta en Kyiv, el socio de un colega, Sergiy (hasta febrero de dise\u00f1o de productos) fue enviado a la regi\u00f3n de Donetsk hace dos semanas. Ahora vive en un b\u00fanker cerca del frente. Su grupo est\u00e1 armado con equipos sovi\u00e9ticos antiguos y las municiones para sus armas se est\u00e1n agotando.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desde el despliegue, dos miembros de la unidad de Sergiy han muerto. Tal como est\u00e1n las cosas, en el mejor de los casos har\u00e1 estos despliegues durante a\u00f1os mientras el resto del mundo se aburre, la OTAN refuerza sus fronteras<\/a>y Occidente proporciona un goteo de armas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 1941, los oficiales nazis disfrutaron de sus pases de licencia en Par\u00eds, pero no en Londres, mientras Winston Churchill pronunciaba las palabras: \u201cDennos las herramientas que terminaremos el trabajo<\/a>\u201d. Al igual que esos alemanes, los oficiales rusos a\u00fan podr\u00edan disfrutar de la hermosa capital de Ucrania. Todo lo que los detiene son los soldados ucranianos y sus herramientas, en su mayor\u00eda obsoletas.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Below is the text of Frenk Ledwidge, TDC Visiting Fellow for The Conversation. For a few weeks I\u2019ve been in Kyiv, partly as a visiting fellow at leading Ukrainian thinktank the Transatlantic Dialogue Center. Kyiv is an astonishingly elegant and beautiful city; a premier league European capital. The regular air raid warnings delivered on your phone, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,103,102,29,107],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-5606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-eu-ukraine-partnership-program-events","category-eng-us-ukraine-partnership-program-events","category-media","category-eu-ukraine-partnership-program-media"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"\nTDC Visiting Fellow Frank Ledwidge: Ukraine is losing this war at the moment. 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