{"id":5002,"date":"2022-05-19T17:42:17","date_gmt":"2022-05-19T14:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=5002"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:43:26","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:43:26","slug":"destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/es\/2022\/05\/19\/destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Desestabilizaci\u00f3n de Transnistria: preludio de la desestabilizaci\u00f3n de Europa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the first refugees started fleeing from Transnistria. Short after these events, Moldovan President M. Sandu held a meeting of the Security Council. On May 1, the British newspaper The Times published an article stating that the Kremlin had decided to invade Moldova, from where it would try to open a new front against Ukraine, in particular, aimed from the west at Odesa and the Odesa region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.rferl.org\/44675F79-0DD7-4668-92D0-2549C10D0D8E_cx0_cy1_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u0421\u0432\u044f\u0442\u043a\u0443\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0414\u043d\u044f \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0438 \u0432 \u0422\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0456. \u041f\u0440\u0438\u0434\u043d\u0456\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432'\u044f 9 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u044f 2014 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0443\"\/><figcaption><em>Celebraci\u00f3n del D\u00eda de la Victoria en Tir\u00e1spol. Transnistria, 9 de mayo de 2014.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meaning: the events in Transnistria are developing according to the typical &#8220;Donetsk&#8221; scenario when an external threat was artificially created, an evacuation was announced, and then mobilization in the &#8220;L\/DNR&#8221;, which ended with a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>military capabilities of the PMR and L\/DNR are incomparable but Russia is trying to create an additional threat to Ukraine, and as a possible option &#8211; an irritant provoking the response of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;<\/li><li>otra amenaza a M. Sandu sobre la inconveniencia de suministrar combustible a Ucrania a trav\u00e9s del territorio de Moldavia. De lo contrario, tendr\u00e1 la guerra en casa;<\/li><li>the traditional parade on May 9 in Transnistria has been cancelled. Given the extreme ideological saturation of the republic, this is a very serious step. Together with the need for &#8220;some kind of victory&#8221; for Putin, this &#8220;victory&#8221; may be the PMR;<\/li><li>en caso de desestabilizaci\u00f3n de Moldavia, M. Sandu no podr\u00e1 resistir a Rusia, en particular en caso de ataques de alta precisi\u00f3n: se ver\u00e1 obligada a rendirse o a buscar ayuda de terceros pa\u00edses;<\/li><li>si Ucrania interviene, Rusia tendr\u00e1 la oportunidad de aumentar su presi\u00f3n en el campo de batalla. Como m\u00e1ximo, podr\u00eda declarar oficialmente la guerra a Kyiv;<\/li><li>if Romania intervenes, this would constitute a precedent at a higher level &#8211; the NATO level. Romania alone will not oppose Russia and NATO will have to consider whether to go to war with Russia for the sake of Moldova;<\/li><li>los medios de comunicaci\u00f3n occidentales informan cada vez m\u00e1s de que Putin ya ha tomado la decisi\u00f3n de apoderarse militarmente de Moldavia. Las tropas rusas no han logrado crear un corredor terrestre hacia Transnistria a trav\u00e9s de Ucrania, por lo que atacar a un Estado d\u00e9bil con un ej\u00e9rcito formalmente existente ser\u00eda una soluci\u00f3n m\u00e1s sencilla que abrirse paso para establecer ese corredor en combates intensos y sangrientos;<\/li><li>tras la ocupaci\u00f3n de Moldavia, Rusia aumentar\u00e1 sus capacidades de movilizaci\u00f3n y recibir\u00e1 cierta cantidad de armamento. Rusia carece de forma catastr\u00f3fica de soldados realmente aptos para el combate, a quienes intenta reclutar en cada oportunidad, incluso mediante la captura de pa\u00edses asim\u00e9tricamente d\u00e9biles.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia is raising the complexity of challenges and is trying to create additional hotbeds of possible war near the borders of NATO and the EU. The next epicentre may be the Balkans. Serbia is already at the centre of attention. Most importantly, the Kremlin has proved that a fairly simple method of &#8220;portraying the aggressor as the victim&#8221;, which was introduced by Hitler, is also applicable in our time. At the macro level, Russia is trying to destabilize Europe and the collective West. At the micro level, it is generating additional threats to Ukraine, creating, among other things, preconditions for a more massive invasion of southern Ukraine, formation of a land corridor to Transnistria with the potential occupation of Moldova if the West completely fails to act.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,31],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-5002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Transnistria\u2019s Destabilization Risk for Europe | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This analysis examines the April 2022 attacks in Transnistria and the risk that instability there could widen Russia\u2019s war beyond Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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