{"id":33548,"date":"2025-12-29T18:07:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T16:07:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=33548"},"modified":"2026-01-20T18:16:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T16:16:11","slug":"maksym-chebotarov-for-beijing-news-missing-the-christmas-ceasefire-are-there-still-variables","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/es\/2025\/12\/29\/maksym-chebotarov-for-beijing-news-missing-the-christmas-ceasefire-are-there-still-variables\/","title":{"rendered":"Maksym Chebotarov para Beijing News: Al perderse el \u201calto el fuego navide\u00f1o\u201d, \u00bfsiguen existiendo variables?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\" translation-block\">En una entrevista con <em>Beijing News<\/em>, Maksym Chebotarov, coordinador del Programa de Cooperaci\u00f3n EE.UU.-Ucrania del Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC), coment\u00f3 la falta de avances en torno al denominado \u201calto el fuego navide\u00f1o\u201d y expuso la relevancia del plan de paz actualizado de 20 puntos en el contexto de las negociaciones en curso entre Ucrania, Estados Unidos y Rusia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chebotarov se\u00f1al\u00f3 que las conversaciones de Miami\/Florida, pese a las valoraciones p\u00fablicas positivas de las partes como \u201cproductivas y constructivas\u201d, no han generado un valor a\u00f1adido tangible. Previamente, se emitieron declaraciones optimistas por parte del enviado especial de Estados Unidos Steve Witkoff, el jefe negociador de Ucrania Rustem Umerov y el enviado presidencial especial del presidente ruso para inversi\u00f3n extranjera y cooperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica Kirill Dmitriev. Chebotarov sostiene que el formato actual de las negociaciones se asemeja m\u00e1s a una diplomacia itinerante, con Washington como principal mediador, mientras que un arreglo de paz integral sigue siendo dif\u00edcil de alcanzar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"504\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33556\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-9.png 900w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-9-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-9-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-9-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Seg\u00fan Chebotarov, el plan de paz de 20 puntos publicado es una versi\u00f3n condensada de propuestas estadounidenses anteriores y, por ahora, funciona como un marco b\u00e1sico m\u00e1s que como un acuerdo internacional plenamente desarrollado. Subray\u00f3 que el documento es principalmente de car\u00e1cter conceptual y requiere una revisi\u00f3n a fondo, en particular en lo relativo a los mecanismos de implementaci\u00f3n y su validez jur\u00eddica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chebotarov a\u00f1adi\u00f3 que la nueva versi\u00f3n del plan no incluye la exigencia de consagrar jur\u00eddicamente la negativa de Ucrania a ingresar en la OTAN. Al mismo tiempo, se discute la posibilidad de incorporar un documento separado, un acuerdo entre Rusia y Estados Unidos, que establezca que la OTAN no se ampliar\u00e1 ni invitar\u00e1 a Ucrania a adherirse. Advirti\u00f3 que los acuerdos sobre el despliegue de tropas de la OTAN en territorio ucraniano alcanzados al margen del consenso m\u00e1s amplio de todos los Estados miembros pueden tener una legitimidad jur\u00eddica cuestionable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chebotarov se\u00f1al\u00f3 que el \u201cplan de paz\u201d constituye, en realidad, un proceso de paz integral, por lo que solo puede considerarse un acuerdo si se consens\u00faan todos los asuntos. Como subrayan los negociadores ucranianos, \u201cse acord\u00f3 lo que de todos modos hab\u00eda que acordar\u201d, es decir, los elementos no controvertidos, como el reconocimiento de la soberan\u00eda y la necesidad de un modelo de seguridad renovado para Ucrania. Sin embargo, persisten cuestiones apremiantes, entre ellas el estatus y los aspectos pr\u00e1cticos de la operaci\u00f3n de la central nuclear de Zaporiyia, el futuro de los activos rusos congelados, el estatus de la lengua rusa y de la iglesia, y muchas otras. Chebotarov prest\u00f3 especial atenci\u00f3n a la cuesti\u00f3n territorial, en particular al Donb\u00e1s, que sigue siendo un punto clave de fricci\u00f3n. Enfatiz\u00f3 que las ideas sobre una posible zona econ\u00f3mica libre o zonas desmilitarizadas a\u00fan no cuentan con par\u00e1metros acordados y no pueden considerarse una base para un cese r\u00e1pido de las hostilidades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chebotarov considera que, a juzgar por la informaci\u00f3n difundida actualmente por la parte rusa, Rusia probablemente seguir\u00e1 luchando por territorio, lo que puede conducir a una prolongaci\u00f3n adicional de las negociaciones y de las consultas diplom\u00e1ticas en medio de la confrontaci\u00f3n militar en curso. Se trata del llamado \u201chablar mientras se combate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En conclusi\u00f3n, Chebotarov se\u00f1al\u00f3 que, en ausencia de un acuerdo sobre cuestiones pol\u00edticas clave, principalmente el arreglo territorial y las garant\u00edas de seguridad para Ucrania, lo m\u00e1s probable es que 2026 est\u00e9 marcado por negociaciones c\u00edclicas y diplomacia itinerante, m\u00e1s que por un acuerdo de paz integral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lea el art\u00edculo completo <a href=\"https:\/\/m.bjnews.com.cn\/detail\/1766754187169102.html\">a trav\u00e9s del enlace<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In an interview with Beijing News, Maksym Chebotarov, Coordinator of the US-Ukraine Partnership Program at the Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC), commented on the lack of breakthroughs surrounding the so-called &#8220;Christmas ceasefire&#8221; and outlined the significance of the updated 20-point peace plan in the context of ongoing negotiations between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia. Chebotarov [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":33556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,106],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-33548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-media","category-us-ukraine-partnership-program-media"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Maksym Chebotarov for Beijing News: Missing the &quot;Christmas Ceasefire&quot;: Are There Still Variables? - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. 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