{"id":32903,"date":"2025-11-07T13:26:51","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T11:26:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=32903"},"modified":"2025-11-17T11:08:32","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T09:08:32","slug":"ukraines-long-war-changing-strategies-and-great-power-competition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/es\/2025\/11\/07\/ukraines-long-war-changing-strategies-and-great-power-competition\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine&#8217;s Long War: Changing Strategies and Great Power Competition"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px;border:1px solid #e2e2e2\" data-attachment-id=\"51896\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"false\" title=\"Download in pdf\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>Download in pdf<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"background:transparent;border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi-folder-o\"><\/i><span class=\"file-size\">1 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-executive-summary\">Executive Summary<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The Russo-Ukrainian war has transitioned into a prolonged, attritional contest where staying power\u2013air defense, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) continuity, munitions, energy resilience, and industrial output \u2013 matters more than any single diplomatic or combat breakthrough. A sharp U.S. policy shift\u2013from alliance-centric predictability to a more conditional, transactional approach \u2014 is forcing Europe to accelerate defense spending and co-production even as fragmentation persists. Meanwhile, Russia continues to exploit allied ambiguity through calibrated and creeping escalation, and China quietly accrues strategic and economic gains while hedging. In effect, Ukraine has reframed victory as national survival, racing to localize production, harden its grid, and secure multi-year defense capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-united-states\"><em>United States<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Under President Trump, Washington seeks greater burden\u2011sharing, favors bilateral deals over large multilateral packages, and prioritizes the Indo\u2011Pacific in force\u2011planning. This policy shift has practical implications, which consider them not as a clean break but a higher variance \u2013 support can surge or pause based on U.S. cost\u2013benefit calculus \u2013 so allies are planning for episodic U.S. engagement rather than continuous guarantees.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The U.S. is shifting from large, predictable direct budget support toward investment\u2011linked vehicles (e.g., a critical\u2011minerals\u2011anchored reconstruction fund) and increased use of FMS\/drawdowns. The approach aims to mobilize private capital, tie aid to U.S. economic interests, and keep options flexible. The trade\u2011off is less predictability for Kyiv\u2019s treasury planning and more reliance on Europe and IFIs to smooth budget gaps in between U.S. transfers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The late\u2011January to mid\u2011March 2025 ISR pause \u2014 including Ukraine\u2019s temporary loss of access to the GEGD satellite imagery feed \u2014 reduced early\u2011warning and targeting fidelity. Even though access was later restored, the episode signaled that high\u2011end U.S. enablers are not automatic; they can be throttled. Russia read this as an opening to press on multiple fronts while Europe\u2019s ISR substitutes remained patchy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-european-union\"><em>Uni\u00f3n Europea<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>European military and security initiatives seek to scale production of air\u2011defense interceptors, artillery, and munitions, improve joint procurement, and treat EU strategic autonomy as a complement to NATO \u2014 an attempt to insure against U.S. variability while keeping the Alliance central.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Western Europe prioritizes industrial policy, joint procurement, and strategic autonomy, whereas Eastern Europe emphasizes NATO posture and U.S. presence while also surging national defense outlays. The result is momentum with integration frictions: Europe is investing more, but standardization, timelines, and governance differ across camps, creating execution risk in a long war.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>September 2025 saw Russian drone and fighter jet incursions over EU\/NATO countries. Tactically, these incidents forced scrambles and interceptor expenditures; strategically, they normalized low\u2011level violations that are politically costly but fall below clear retaliation. The lack of a strong response may invite Russia to further probe NATO\u2019s procedures and public tolerance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-russian-federation\"><em>Russian Federation<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Russia\u2019s objective is to consolidate control over occupied territories, raise the recurring costs of Ukrainian defense and Western support, and probe allied cohesion without crossing thresholds that invite overwhelming response. In effect, Russia is utilizing a dual-strategy approach: calibrated escalation through visible, controlled and reversible actions \u2014 e.g., strikes on energy infrastructure, snap exercises to signal, coerce and put pressure as well as creeping escalation through incremental, ambiguous and cumulative actions \u2014 e.g., passportization, airspace probes, cyber intrusions\u2013that cumulatively change facts on the ground and normalize higher risk without a single dramatic leap.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Russia\u2019s calculus points to preparation for a prolonged confrontation: consolidation of hard-line decision makers, steady offensive tempo, and a preference for actions that keep allied \u201cwater at a simmer\u201d rather than trigger a decisive backlash. The approach bets that time and attrition erode Western cohesion faster than they deplete Russia\u2019s capacity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-people-s-republic-of-china\"><em>People\u2019s Republic of China<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Beijing has used the Russia-Ukraine war to expand its geopolitical influence and present itself as a neutral mediator while tacitly siding with Moscow.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China is closely studying the conflict to learn about modern warfare, U.S. defense limitations, and alliance dynamics. These insights could shape its military modernization and strategy in a future great-power conflict.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The continuation of the war benefits Beijing economically and politically, deepening Russia\u2019s dependence on China while allowing the latter to secure discounted energy supplies and accumulate leverage over Moscow.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ukraine\"><em>Ukraine<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ukraine\u2019s war narrative has shifted from the prospect of military victory in 2022\u20132023 to a focus on long-term national survival by 2025, with priorities centered on sustaining sovereignty, resilience, and imposing costs on Russia rather than rapid territorial liberation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The defense industrial base has undergone a major transformation, with nearly 60% of Ukraine\u2019s weapons now domestically produced, monthly drone output exceeding 200,000 units, and offshore production lines launched in NATO states to mitigate Russian strikes and foreign supply interruptions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite progress in defense production, Ukraine remains critically dependent on Western partners for air defense systems, ISR capabilities, and advanced components, with U.S. aid becoming less predictable under Trump and Europeans accelerating co-production and technology transfer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy and fiscal resilience remain under pressure: Ukraine is decentralizing its power grid and expanding renewables to counter Russian strikes, while facing a 20% budget deficit and external financing needs of $39\u201340 billion in 2025 to sustain both war efforts and reconstruction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-introduction\">Introduction<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>More than three years into Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has become <strong>the central test of 21st-century deterrence, industrial resilience, and Western cohesion<\/strong>. What began as a high-intensity conventional campaign has evolved into a grinding contest of adaptation in which logistics, defense production, and political will outweigh battlefield maneuver. The conflict\u2019s duration has forced <strong>a recalibration of transatlantic assumptions<\/strong>: U.S. security guarantees are now more conditional and episodic, while Europe\u2019s fragmented defense industrial base struggles to translate unprecedented spending commitments into sustainable output. <strong>The resulting strategic landscape is one of endurance rather than breakthrough<\/strong>, where marginal advantages in production, innovation, and coordination may prove decisive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, <strong>the Kremlin\u2019s strategy of calibrated and creeping escalation has widened <\/strong>the confrontation\u2019s gray zones, from airspace violations and cyberattacks to energy coercion. Moscow is probing NATO\u2019s tolerance below the threshold of retaliation. These dynamics have made deterrence management more complex than at any point since the Cold War. Russia\u2019s long-term bet rests on political fatigue within Western societies, assuming that democratic systems will find it harder to sustain costly commitments over time. <strong>This approach blurs the boundaries between war and peace<\/strong>, compelling the West to rethink escalation control, signaling, and resilience in non-kinetic domains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, China\u2019s opportunistic neutrality underscores how <strong>the war\u2019s consequences are being leveraged by other major powers to extract political and economic advantage<\/strong>, signaling that Ukraine\u2019s struggle is as much about the configuration of the international order as about territorial sovereignty. Beijing\u2019s balancing act \u2014 profiting from discounted Russian resources while avoiding sanctions \u2014 illustrates the emergence of <strong>a transactional multipolarity <\/strong>where conflicts become sources of leverage rather than alignment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Kyiv, <strong>the imperative has shifted<\/strong> <strong>from short-term victory to long-term viability<\/strong>. The country\u2019s survival now depends on its ability to localize defense production, maintain fiscal stability amid uncertain aid flows, and build energy and industrial resilience resilient enough to outlast Russia\u2019s attrition strategy. Ukraine\u2019s internal adaptation \u2014 from decentralized energy generation to drone mass production \u2014 demonstrates <strong>a new model of wartime innovation under constraint<\/strong>. However, sustaining these efforts requires predictable international financing mechanisms and coherent Western coordination, both of which remain uneven. The trajectory of the war through 2025 thus reveals <strong>an emerging multipolar competition in which endurance, coordination, and adaptability will determine strategic outcomes.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Against this backdrop, this policy brief examines how evolving U.S. policy, Europe\u2019s defense-industrial adaptation, Russia\u2019s dual-track escalation strategy, China\u2019s opportunistic neutrality, and Ukraine\u2019s efforts at self-reliance are interacting to define the next phase of the war.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Phase<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Russian Federation<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>United States<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Uni\u00f3n Europea<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>China<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Ukraine<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>2014 \u2013 2015<\/strong><\/td><td>Russia moved quickly in Crimea and Donbas because it calculated that Western military intervention was unlikely, especially if actions were hybrid and deniable. Accepting the Minsk agreements allowed Moscow to reframe its aggression as a <em>\u201cconflict management\u201d<\/em> process while securing time to entrench administrative and military control. The broader context was a belief that calibrated <em>faits accomplis<\/em> could change borders at low cost if paired with a diplomatic cover.<\/td><td>Washington prioritized keeping the G7\/EU sanctions front unified, which meant accepting a narrower toolbox centered on finance and diplomacy. The Obama administration deliberately held back on lethal aid, fearing escalation and alliance fracture. The context was U.S. risk management: projecting leadership but drawing a ceiling around military involvement, which Russia internalized as predictable restraint.<\/td><td>European governments balanced political outrage with economic self-preservation: sanctions were coordinated but deliberately stopped short of energy cut-offs. NATO rotations signaled solidarity but avoided permanent basing that Moscow could brand as escalation. This revealed Europe\u2019s structural vulnerability \u2013 willing to punish but not to fundamentally alter its dependence on Russian energy or commit to large-scale defense posture change.<\/td><td>Beijing\u2019s priority was to avoid entanglement while quietly benefiting from Russia\u2019s isolation; neutrality offered flexibility and preserved trade. Its rhetoric emphasized sovereignty and dialogue, but it avoided sanctioning Moscow or openly criticizing the annexation. The wider context was a strategic hedge: keeping ties with Russia intact, learning from Western sanctions design, and observing military innovation without incurring reputational costs.<\/td><td>Kyiv faced existential threats and chose a dual track: mobilize militarily while engaging diplomatically to buy time. Accepting Minsk meant sacrificing territory in the short term but preserving state survival, while reforms were launched to unlock Western sympathy and assistance. The deeper context was dependence: Ukraine could fight, but sustaining the fight depended on external security and financial backers, embedding asymmetry into its war effort.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Strategic objective<\/em><\/td><td>Secure territorial gains while avoiding full-scale Western military intervention.<\/td><td>Lead coalition response \u2013 preserve alliance cohesion while avoiding direct combat with Russia.<\/td><td>Raise costs on Russia while avoiding immediate military escalation that could trigger wider war.<\/td><td>Preserve economic ties; avoid being dragged into confrontation; exploit opportunities from Western fragmentation.<\/td><td>Survive, protect territorial integrity where possible, and mobilize international support.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Strategic pattern<\/em><\/td><td><strong>Expansionism \u2192 hybrid warfare \u2192 diplomatic freeze \u2192 normalized control<\/strong>, institutionalizing the seize-and-freeze model.<\/td><td><strong>Preserve alliance cohesion \u2192 prioritize multilateral sanctions \u2192 avoid kinetic engagement \u2192 manage escalation risk<\/strong>, embedding restraint into coalition leadership.<\/td><td><strong>Unity in sanctions \u2192 avoidance of military escalation \u2192 reliance on economic tools \u2192 vulnerability through energy dependence<\/strong>, shaping a reactive rather than proactive security posture.<\/td><td><strong>Public neutrality \u2192 economic continuity \u2192 silent enabling \u2192 leverage building<\/strong>, turning ambiguity into a strategic hedge.<\/td><td><strong>Immediate survival \u2192 compromise via Minsk \u2192 reform as leverage \u2192 dependence on Western support<\/strong>, fusing military endurance with political signaling.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>2017\u20132020<\/strong><\/td><td>Kept <em>\u201cthe war at a simmer\u201d<\/em> while <strong>broadening the battlespace to the sea<\/strong> (the 2018 Kerch Strait\/Azov Sea confrontation) and <strong>deepening <em>passportization<\/em><\/strong> of residents in occupied Donetsk\/Luhansk to lock in influence without full escalation. Strategy: pressure, probe, and entrench while testing Western red lines.<\/td><td><strong>Shifted from <em>non\u2011lethal only <\/em>to calibrated lethal aid<\/strong> (2018 Javelins, a 2019 top\u2011up, and 2020 Mark\u202fVI patrol boats), <strong>expanded sanctions authorities<\/strong> (CAATSA 2017), <strong>targeted Nord Stream\u202f2<\/strong> (PEESA in the FY2020 NDAA, prompting Allseas to suspend pipelaying in Dec\u202f2019), and <strong>withdrew from the INF Treaty<\/strong> citing Russian non\u2011compliance. A late\u20112019 hold on Ukraine security funds drew a GAO legal violation finding.<\/td><td><strong>Maintained sanctions unity<\/strong> via six\u2011monthly rollovers and <strong>added measures after the Kerch\/Azov escalation<\/strong>, while still balancing energy exposure and intra\u2011EU differences (e.g., over Nord Stream\u202f2). NATO\u2011EU signaling continued; fundamental posture changes remained incremental.<\/td><td><strong>Stayed publicly \u201cneutral\u201d <\/strong>\u2013 no sanctions on Russia and <strong>no recognition of Crimea\u2019s annexation <\/strong>\u2013 while <strong>pursuing economic leverage<\/strong>, notably attempts by Chinese investors (Skyrizon) to acquire Ukrainian engine-maker <strong>Motor\u202fSich <\/strong>(stakes frozen from 2017; U.S. later blacklisted Skyrizon). A classic hedge: keep ties with both Kyiv and Moscow, learn from Western sanctions design, avoid entanglement.<\/td><td><strong>Political reset with Zelenskyy (2019)<\/strong> enabled humanitarian steps and renewed diplomacy (Paris <strong>Normandy<\/strong> summit) and ushered in the <strong>Jul\u202f27,\u202f2020 <em>additional measures<\/em> ceasefire<\/strong>, which temporarily suppressed violations. Simultaneously, Kyiv <strong>absorbed U.S. lethal aid<\/strong> (Javelins, naval kits) and began rebuilding maritime resilience after Kerch.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Strategic objective<\/em><\/td><td>Consolidate <em>de\u2011facto<\/em> control in Donbas and Crimea, expand coercive leverage (including at sea), and <strong>avoid a West\u2013Russia war<\/strong> while shaping facts on the ground for a future bargain.<\/td><td><strong>Raise costs on Moscow without direct combat<\/strong>: sanctions + energy geopolitics (NS2), <strong>selective arms transfers<\/strong>, allied posture via EDI, and arms\u2011control pressure (INF exit) \u2013 all while <strong>containing escalation risk<\/strong>.<\/td><td><strong>Preserve unity and deterrence at acceptable economic pain<\/strong>, keep <strong>Minsk\/Normandy<\/strong> mechanisms alive, and manage energy dependencies without fracturing consensus.<\/td><td><strong>Exploit ambiguity<\/strong> for economic and tech gains (e.g., Motor\u202fSich), <strong>avoid secondary exposure<\/strong> to Western sanctions, and <strong>watch\/learn<\/strong> from sanction mechanics, all while keeping optionality with Russia.<\/td><td><strong>Survive and stabilize<\/strong>: secure Western backing, <strong>de\u2011escalate tactically<\/strong> (prisoner exchanges, July\u202f2020 ceasefire), <strong>modernize selectively<\/strong> (Javelins\/boats), and <strong>rebuild maritime deterrence<\/strong> after Azov\/Kerch.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Strategic pattern<\/em><\/td><td><strong>Low\u2011intensity war + hybrid integration<\/strong> (passports, legal\/administrative creep) \u2192 <strong>maritime coercion<\/strong> \u2192 diplomatic freeze punctuated by tactical deals.<\/td><td><strong>Coalition leadership with calibrated hard power<\/strong>: CAATSA\/PEESA sanctions \u2192 <strong>targeted lethal aid<\/strong> (but not game\u2011changing) \u2192 <strong>arms\u2011control exit (INF)<\/strong> \u2192 <strong>episodic policy volatility<\/strong> (2019 aid hold), all within an escalation\u2011managed framework. <strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Routine renewals + selective add\u2011ons<\/strong> (Kerch response) \u2192 <strong>process\u2011first diplomacy<\/strong> (Normandy\/Minsk), while <strong>energy realities<\/strong> limit bolder moves; unity sustained but cautious.<strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Ambiguity-as-strategy<\/strong>: public neutrality, <strong>tech\/industry entries<\/strong> in Ukraine under scrutiny, <strong>no overt breaks <\/strong>with Moscow; leverage grows without formal commitments.<strong><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Reset \u2192 humanitarian confidence\u2011building \u2192 tactical quiet<\/strong> (mid\u20112020 ceasefire) while <strong>banking Western kit<\/strong> y <strong>keeping negotiation channels open<\/strong>; resilience grows but remains externally dependent. <strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>2021\u20132025<\/strong><em><\/em><\/td><td>Launched the <strong>full\u2011scale invasion<\/strong> (Feb\u202f24,\u202f2022), then pivoted from a failed blitz on Kyiv to an <strong>attritional, industrialized campaign<\/strong> backed by <strong>partial mobilization<\/strong> (Sep\u202f21,\u202f2022) and the <strong>annexation claims<\/strong> over four regions (Sep\u202f30,\u202f2022). Intensified winter strikes on energy and made <strong>incremental gains<\/strong> such as <strong>Avdiivka<\/strong> (Feb\u202f2024), while being <strong>pushed at sea <\/strong>\u2013 Ukrainian strikes forced Black Sea Fleet assets to disperse away from Sevastopol. Also <strong>quit<\/strong> the Black Sea Grain Initiative (Jul\u202f17,\u202f2023).<\/td><td>Led the coalition response and <strong>scaled aid by capability \u201crungs\u201d<\/strong>: HIMARS\/air defense \u2192 <strong>DPICM cluster munitions <\/strong>(Jul\u202f2023) \u2192 <strong>ATACMS (300\u202fkm)<\/strong> (April\u202f2024). <strong>Allowed limited use of U.S. weapons<\/strong> for strikes <strong>inside Russia near Kharkiv<\/strong> (May\u202f30,\u202f2024). Secured the <strong>$60.8\u202fB supplemental<\/strong> (Apr\u202f2024) and concluded a <strong>10\u2011year bilateral security agreement<\/strong> with Kyiv (June\u202f2024). Cumulatively <strong>$66.9\u202fB in U.S. military assistance<\/strong> since Feb\u202f2022 (as of Jan\u202f2025).<\/td><td>Became Ukraine\u2019s anchor for <strong>macro\u2011financial<\/strong> and military support: launched the <strong>\u20ac50\u202fB Ukraine Facility (2024\u201127)<\/strong>; used and topped\u2011up the <strong>European Peace Facility<\/strong> for lethal aid; stood up <strong>EUMAM Ukraine<\/strong> to train forces; and iterated <strong>sanction packages<\/strong> (e.g., the 14th in Jun\u202f2024), tightening enforcement and energy\u2011related measures. Opened <strong>EU accession talks<\/strong> with Ukraine (June\u202f25,\u202f2024).<\/td><td>Declared a <strong>no\u2011limits partnership<\/strong> with Russia (Feb\u202f4,\u202f2022) and rolled out a <strong>12\u2011point position paper<\/strong> on the war (Feb\u202f2023). Publicly avoided lethal aid to Russia while <strong>expanding trade\/dual\u2011use channels<\/strong> that drew Western sanctions against PRC\u2011based entities. Xi also <strong>spoke with Zelenskyy<\/strong> (Apr\u202f26,\u202f2023) without shifting core alignment.<\/td><td><strong>Survived and adapted<\/strong>: defended Kyiv (spring\u202f2022), liberated <strong>Kharkiv oblast and Kherson (right bank) in 2022<\/strong>, then shifted to <strong>attritional and deep\u2011strike warfare<\/strong> \u2013 drones\/missiles <strong>degrading Russian energy and Black Sea Fleet<\/strong> assets and reopening a <strong>\u201ctemporary\u201d grain corridor<\/strong> in 2023 after Moscow quit the UN deal. Tightened manpower policy (<strong>draft age to 25<\/strong>; updated mobilization rules) and began integrating <strong>F\u201116s\/Mirage-2000s<\/strong> in 2024.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Strategic objective<\/em><\/td><td><strong>Impose a new territorial reality<\/strong> and a negotiation on Moscow\u2019s terms by <strong>outlasting Western resolve<\/strong>, sustaining the war economy, and grinding forward where feasible while hardening control over occupied areas.<\/td><td><strong>Enable Ukraine to defend, deter and endure<\/strong> \u2013 raise costs on Russia, <strong>avoid direct NATO-Russia war, and lock in multi\u2011year support <\/strong>(supplemental + 10\u2011year pact) while tightening export controls\/sanctions.<\/td><td><strong>Sustain Ukraine and constrain Russia<\/strong> at scale (financial, military, industrial) while <strong>binding Kyiv to the EU path<\/strong> y <strong>closing sanction\u2011evasion seams<\/strong>.<\/td><td><strong>Preserve strategic ambiguity<\/strong>: posture as neutral mediator, <strong>avoid Western sanctions<\/strong>, keep economic leverage with Moscow, and <strong>shape any settlement<\/strong> toward Chinese talking points.<\/td><td><strong>Survive, adapt, and impose costs<\/strong>: defend critical population\/energy nodes, <strong>expand long\u2011range strike leverage<\/strong>, strengthen air defense, and <strong>accelerate Euro\u2011Atlantic integration<\/strong> to anchor long\u2011term security.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><em>Strategic pattern<\/em><\/td><td><strong>Blitz \u2192 attrition \u2192 entrenchment<\/strong>: mobilization + annexation claims; seasonal <strong>energy bombardment<\/strong>; <strong>stepwise advances<\/strong> (e.g., Avdiivka) even as <strong>naval risk<\/strong> in Crimea forced dispersion.<\/td><td><strong>Capability ladder + policy guardrails<\/strong>: steady escalation of systems (DPICM \u2192 ATACMS) and <strong>bounded authorities<\/strong>(limited cross\u2011border use), coupled with <strong>financing surges<\/strong> (Apr\u202f2024 supplemental) and a <strong>10\u2011year security framework<\/strong>.<\/td><td><strong>Process + scale<\/strong>: sanction packages, <strong>EPF top\u2011ups<\/strong> y <strong>EUMAM training<\/strong>, then <strong>accession talks<\/strong> y la <strong>\u20ac50\u202fB Facility<\/strong> to make support <strong>predictable<\/strong> and more insulated from U.S. politics.<\/td><td><strong>Rhetorical neutrality, practical hedging<\/strong>: <em>peace messaging<\/em> while <strong>deepening Russia ties<\/strong> y <strong>testing sanctions lines<\/strong> \u2013 prompting targeted U.S.\/EU measures against PRC entities.<\/td><td><strong>From maneuver to systemic pressure<\/strong>: after 2022 offensives, emphasis shifted to <strong>air defense + deep strikes <\/strong>(energy\/logistics, Black Sea Fleet) and <strong>manpower repair<\/strong> (draft age 25), while modern fighter jets<strong> integration<\/strong> slowly began to reshape the air\u2011war balance.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The evolution of the Russo-Ukraine war is no longer viewed as a sequence of crises but <\/em><strong><em>a continuum of strategic adaptation<\/em><\/strong><em>. Russia\u2019s conduct has remained structurally consistent: hybrid coercion, calibrated and creeping escalation, alternating between overt offensives and bureaucratic annexation to normalize occupation. For the United States, the pendulum has swung from predictable multilateralism to conditional bilateralism, redefining the limits and instruments of Western engagement, shifting the balance between deterrence, escalation management, and burden sharing. Europe, in effect, was forced to move from dependence to hesitant self-assertion through industrial policy, defense loans, and co-production schemes. Meanwhile, China\u2019s ostensible neutrality matures into material enabling \u2013 a sanctions\u2011aware hedge that deepens leverage over Moscow while exploiting transatlantic seams. Against this backdrop, Ukraine has transformed from a recipient of aid into a co-producer of security \u2013 sustaining air defense and ISR, industrializing at home and with allies, keeping the grid alive under fire, and locking in Euro\u2011Atlantic integration faster than Russia can normalize faits accomplis. The strategic implication is clear: only a broad coalition\u2013wide strategy that <\/em><strong><em>insulates assistance from political cycles, closes sanction\u2011evasion channels, and accelerates co\u2011production and Euro\u2011Atlantic integration<\/em><\/strong><em> will outpace Moscow\u2019s time\u2011and\u2011pressure approach.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-from-multilateralism-to-america-first-the-u-s-foreign-policy-shift\"><strong>From Multilateralism to America First: The U.S. Foreign Policy Shift<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Under Biden, foreign policy was explicitly alliance-centric, multilateral, and values-driven. His administration sought to prioritize allies by revitalizing America\u2019s global network of partnerships and reaffirming the commitment to collective defense. Biden\u2019s Doctrine explicitly framed U.S. engagement as part of a broader effort to defend the liberal international order against authoritarian resurgence. He consistently elevated NATO, the G7, and the EU as strategic cornerstones \u2013 a view codified in the 2022 <em>National Security Strategy<\/em>, which described alliances as America\u2019s most <em>important strategic asset<\/em>. Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine became a key animating element for American and European democracies alike, transforming solidarity with Kyiv into a defining test of Western unity. The administration also reengaged with global institutions such as the UN, WTO, and WHO, underscoring a return to multilateral cooperation on cross-border challenges from health to climate and trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The hallmark of Biden\u2019s foreign policy was predictability and solidarity. The administration sought to reassert America\u2019s traditional leadership role on the international stage after the turbulence of the first Trump administration, placing democratic values at the center of U.S. engagement and framing competition with Russia and China as a global contest between democracy and authoritarianism. This approach reassured allies of the durability and normative anchoring of U.S. leadership. Yet it also created strains, as defending democracy worldwide required sustained military, economic, and diplomatic commitments that risked <em>overstretching U.S. resources<\/em>. Balancing credibility abroad with domestic political and fiscal constraints remained a persistent challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The transition from President Joe Biden to President Donald Trump represents not only a change in leadership but a fundamental redefinition of how the U.S. conceives its role in the world. Both administrations acknowledged intensifying great-power competition, but they diverged sharply in doctrine, instruments, and political foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this second administration, foreign policy was explicitly <em>pragmatic<\/em> y <em>cost-conscious<\/em>. President Trump\u2019s advisers argued that U.S. leadership had too often been a subsidy for allies who failed to invest in their own defense, and called for a dramatic shift in <em>fair burden-sharing<\/em>. The President consistently framed alliances as <em>conditional bargains<\/em> rather than enduring obligations, reflecting his long-held assertion that U.S. commitments should be judged against immediate national benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike President Biden, who emphasized democracy promotion as the organizing principle of U.S. engagement, President Trump rejected values-based foreign policy in favor of interest-based prioritization. Analysts observed that this approach was designed to<em> prevent strategic overstretch<\/em> by narrowing the scope of U.S. obligations and focusing on regions offering the highest return. This produced a hierarchy of priorities: China as the pacing challenge for defense planning and resource allocation; Europe expected to assume greater responsibility for its own security; and the Middle East reframed around counterterrorism and energy stability rather than large-scale democracy promotion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The hallmark of Donald Trump\u2019s foreign policy is <em>conditionality paired with deliberate unpredictability<\/em>. For Washington, this strategy promised efficiency and leverage: it aimed to reduce the costs of global leadership while compelling allies to shoulder a greater share of the burden. His administration consistently presents U.S. engagement as contingent rather than automatic, coupling assurances of support with suggestions of retrenchment. Yet systemic uncertainty is forcing partners to question the reliability of American commitments and spurring parallel efforts in Europe and Asia to hedge against American volatility. In this sense, unpredictability was not a tactical byproduct but an organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy \u2013 recasting America\u2019s role in the international system on terms explicitly tied to its national interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump\u2019s foreign policy emphasizes U.S. interests over universal norms, preferring bilateral deals and selective <em>club-style<\/em> engagements, rather than fully embracing universal or institutional multilateral frameworks, emphasizing U.S. interests and renegotiations rather than broad commitment to global governance and toward the presidency itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump also centralized foreign policy decision-making in the White House, reducing the influence of traditional institutional checks. Unlike previous presidents who relied heavily on interagency processes, President Trump consistently privileged personal instinct and bilateral deal-making over bureaucratic consensus. His second administration entered office with fewer internal or external constraints, since many of the <em>\u201cgrownups\u201d<\/em> who tempered his first-term decisions were no longer in place. This personalization of diplomacy was already evident in his first term through high-profile summits with leaders such as Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, which bypassed State Department and Pentagon vetting. In parallel, President Trump increasingly relies on <em>special envoys<\/em> \u2013 figures who enjoyed his exclusive trust and often operated outside traditional interagency coordination \u2013 thereby institutionalizing an alternative channel of diplomacy shaped more by presidential trust <em>per se<\/em>. Analysts also observed that President Trump often approached high-profile events, privileging the performative component over traditional diplomatic protocol.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crucially, President Trump\u2019s foreign policy represents a significant departure from earlier U.S. commitments to Ukraine, particularly those enshrined in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Under that agreement, the United States, alongside the United Kingdom and Russia, pledged to respect Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and provide security assurances in exchange for Kyiv\u2019s relinquishment of the world\u2019s third-largest nuclear arsenal. Although the memorandum offered \u201cassurances\u201d rather than binding guarantees, it symbolized Washington\u2019s political commitment to Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity. Donald Trump\u2019s America First doctrine, by contrast, reinterprets such commitments through a transactional lens \u2013 emphasizing <em>reciprocity<\/em> y <em>conditionality<\/em> rather than open-ended assurance. This shift underscores the broader transformation in U.S. foreign policy: from normative guardianship toward a calculus of selective engagement driven by national benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In its second iteration, <em>America First<\/em> reframed U.S. leadership not as a guarantor of global order but as a transactional system designed to preserve American primacy at lower cost. This shift has reasonably generated questions among some allies about the durability of U.S. commitments, particularly in Europe, where uncertainty over Washington\u2019s posture could affect perceptions of deterrence. A narrower, interest-based leadership model can allow Washington to concentrate on core strategic challenges, rather than diluting effort across every global issue. Still, analysts warn that excessive ambiguity over commitment could embolden adversaries and weaken the credibility of U.S. alliances. Others note that a narrower, interest-based conception of leadership may constrain the scope of U.S. coalition-building on global issues such as climate change, trade, or pandemics. The central test for Washington is whether this conditional model \u2013 one that emphasizes <em>fair burden-sharing<\/em> y <em>reciprocity in bilateral trade relations<\/em> \u2013 can preserve U.S. influence without undermining the very alliances and institutions that have underwritten it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For President Trump and his advisors, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was never about safeguarding the liberal international order, but rather an arena through which to apply the principles of <em>America First<\/em> in practice. What once appeared ad hoc in his first term has been formalized into a governing framework. For U.S. allies, this recalibration introduces persistent uncertainty about the scope and durability of American commitments. For Ukraine, it underscores the necessity of preparing for a U.S. role that is narrower, more interest-driven, and less anchored in universal obligations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-europe-was-left-without-solid-ground-yet-seeks-a-fair-balance\"><strong>Europe Was Left Without Solid Ground, Yet Seeks a Fair Balance<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Under Biden, the U.S. reinvested in NATO, re-engaged with the G7 and the EU, and returned to global institutions. For Europe, this meant a restoration of predictability: transatlantic cooperation on climate, trade, and global health crises signaled that Washington saw allies as strategic assets rather than competitors. This allowed the EU to position itself as a partner in shaping multilateral governance, from climate diplomacy to WTO reform, while maintaining close alignment with U.S. global priorities. Predictability, per se, also caused a broad consensus among the allies, which enabled coordination on sanctions, strengthened and deepened cooperation on security and defense, and fostered energy diversification. The U.S. took significant steps to strengthen NATO\u2019s deterrence and defense posture, with NATO remaining the indispensable guarantor of deterrence in the face of Russian aggression. Notably, while the U.S. supplied 52% of European members\u2019 military equipment between 2015 and 2019, the share rose to 64% in the subsequent 5-year period. Even though NATO members relied on Washington\u2019s strategic umbrella, Europe remained heavily under-invested in defense.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet from the European perspective, Biden\u2019s multilateralism was not without its limitations. Brussels often viewed Washington\u2019s NATO approach as excessively U.S.-driven, with key initiatives framed as transatlantic partnerships but shaped primarily by American priorities. Biden\u2019s <em>limited multilateralism<\/em> often puts U.S. domestic interests first, even while rhetorically restoring cooperation. Tensions surfaced over trade, with the persistence of steel and aluminum tariffs, over the Inflation Reduction Act, which Europeans criticized as protectionist, and over the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which reinforced perceptions that Washington still acted unilaterally on core security matters. Europeans also pointed to a lack of long-term strategic clarity in foreign policy. While the administration effectively mobilized allies in response to immediate crises, critics argued that it often failed to translate short-term solidarity into a coherent strategy for managing systemic challenges. The London School of Economics\u2019 IDEAS report described Europe as <em>\u201chedging by default,\u201d<\/em> preparing for scenarios in which U.S. leadership was inconsistent or absent. Biden\u2019s foreign policy ambiguity was evident in the Indo-Pacific, where European partners often struggled to discern Washington\u2019s ultimate strategy toward China, noting that U.S. commitments appeared ambitious in rhetoric but less clear in execution. In the Middle East, shifting U.S. priorities \u2013 from a desire to reduce military footprint to renewed engagement during crises \u2013 left European allies uncertain about the durability of American commitments. The absence of clearly articulated red lines at times enabled adversaries, from Russia to Iran, to probe Western resolve without facing decisive consequences. For many in Europe, this reinforced a sense of vulnerability: even under a President who placed alliances at the center of U.S. foreign policy, leadership frequently oscillated between high rhetoric and hesitant execution. The result was an enduring concern that transatlantic unity, though revitalized, remained reactive and crisis-driven rather than anchored in a sustainable, forward-looking strategic vision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European allies experienced a stark contrast between Joe Biden\u2019s <em>limited multilateralism<\/em> and Donald Trump\u2019s <em>America First<\/em>. For many in Europe, Donald Trump\u2019s second inauguration confirmed fears that U.S. foreign policy was entering a new structural phase. This led European policymakers to increasingly view American security assurances as contingent on Washington\u2019s shifting strategic interests rather than as permanent obligations. President Trump\u2019s emphasis on transactional and episodic diplomacy another time raised questions about NATO\u2019s credibility and whether Article 5 would continue to be treated as an unshakeable guarantee. This marked a clear signal to Europeans that U.S. disengagement from traditional multilateralism might no longer be episodic turbulence but a structural feature of Washington\u2019s approach.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European governments thus began recalibrating their strategies along both geographic and political lines. Central and Eastern European states, particularly Poland and the Baltic countries, despite their efforts to increase defense spending \u2013 for example, Poland\u2019s rose from around 2.7% of GDP in 2022 to about 4.2% in 2024, with a projection of 4.7% in 2025 \u2013 continue to treat the U.S. military presence as indispensable. Western European states, by contrast, have interpreted Trump\u2019s conditionality as reinforcing long-standing debates over Europe\u2019s strategic autonomy. In this context, French arguments \u2013 most prominently advanced by President Emmanuel Macron \u2013 about the risks of overreliance on U.S. guarantees have gained renewed attention, even if not universal acceptance. Berlin, having embraced its <em>Zeitenwende<\/em>, has cautiously aligned with parts of this outlook: it not only raised defense spending but has also devoted political capital to EU-level defense mechanisms, such as new PESCO projects, the European Defence Fund, and the European Sky Shield Initiative. These efforts aim to pool resources and advance a more integrated air and missile defense architecture \u2013 even as challenges remain over financing, coordination, and political alignment across member states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the EU level, institutions have been anchored in the <em>Strategic Compass for Security and Defence<\/em> (adopted in 2022), which set out a roadmap through 2030 to strengthen Europe\u2019s ability to act independently. In 2024, the European Commission unveiled the first <em>European Defence Industrial Strategy<\/em>, which identified <em>\u201cdefence readiness\u201d<\/em> as a priority and introduced new tools to stimulate joint procurement, expand production capacity, and consolidate the defence industrial base. This was followed in 2025 by the launch of the <em>Security Action for Europe<\/em><strong> <\/strong>programme, worth \u20ac150 billion in preferential loans, designed to accelerate procurement of critical capabilities such as air defence, artillery, and munitions. These and other initiatives were designed to present autonomy not as a substitute for NATO but as a necessary complement to strengthen Europe\u2019s ability to act when U.S. leadership wavers. European analysts emphasize that real autonomy requires building a consolidated European defence industrial base and prioritizing intra-EU procurement to reduce dependency on non-European suppliers. In this context, the U.S. transactional approach to alliances is interpreted both as a warning and as an opportunity: a warning that U.S. disengagement from multilateral commitments could become structural, and an opportunity for Europe to overcome chronic underinvestment and fragmentation in its defence policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, the European assessment of Trump\u2019s conditionality is not uniformly negative. On the one hand, U.S. pressure has spurred long-delayed investments, narrowing some of NATO\u2019s burden-sharing gaps. On the other hand, deterrence credibility increasingly depends on perception: ambiguity surrounding NATO\u2019s red lines and Article 5 heightened fears that a transactional U.S. posture could embolden adversaries to test the Alliance\u2019s cohesion. In this environment, European leaders have advanced the <em>Coalition of the Willing<\/em> approach, which has sought to finalize <em>robust security guarantees <\/em>for Ukraine. The initiative has been primarily driven by France and the United Kingdom, whose proactive leadership contrasts with the more cautious engagement of Germany and Poland \u2013 countries that remain hesitant to assume a front-line role. Twenty-six states have pledged to contribute to a post-conflict <em>reassurance force<\/em>, yet many remain reluctant to deploy personnel inside Ukraine unless the United States does so as well. In effect, the EU-US-Ukraine groups are working to design a pragmatic operational framework \u2013 defining <em>what must be implemented, when <\/em>(with some elements to be implemented before \u2018the war is finished\u2019), and<em> how to ensure coherence across actors<\/em>. The Biden-to-Trump transition thus crystallizes a broader paradox: the United States remains central to Europe\u2019s security architecture, but its reliability is no longer taken for granted. The strategic imperative now is to preserve U.S. engagement while simultaneously building autonomous European capabilities capable of acting when American priorities shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result of such a paradigm, however, so far has materialized in a fragmented European response. Western European capitals emphasize the urgency of reducing dependence by reinforcing defense industrial policy, enhancing joint\/common procurement, and investing in long-term strategic autonomy. Frontline states, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, are instead focused on securing bilateral agreements with the U.S. and ensuring enhanced NATO deterrence on the eastern flank, while also increasing their own defense budgets. Both approaches reflect a shared recognition that the transatlantic compact has fundamentally changed. Under Trump, Europe no longer assumes automatic solidarity but must actively negotiate its place in America\u2019s security calculus. This dynamic has generated both anxiety and momentum: anxiety over the durability of U.S. commitments, but also momentum to invest in greater European capacity while keeping the U.S. engaged as the indispensable partner in Europe\u2019s security and international influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-russia-s-calculus-amid-u-s-foreign-policy-shifts\"><strong>Russia\u2019s Calculus Amid U.S. Foreign Policy Shifts<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>From Moscow\u2019s vantage point, the contrast between Joe Biden\u2019s <em>limited multilateralism<\/em> and Donald Trump\u2019s <em>America First<\/em> has also been stark. Under Biden, NATO\u2019s unity and the imposition of sanctions on Russia, together with ongoing Western military assistance to Ukraine, reinforced what analysts see as a <em>containment-plus<\/em> approach. The Kremlin viewed Biden\u2019s frequent framing of the conflict as a contest between democracy and authoritarianism as not just ideological, but existential \u2013 an implicit signal that Moscow was being isolated and portrayed as a pariah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s return, however, was read in Moscow as both a risk and an opportunity. Russian analysts note that Washington\u2019s emphasis on burden-sharing and conditional alliances could become a test of cohesion: if European allies repeatedly fail to meet Washington\u2019s expectations, internal frictions may deepen and credibility may erode. Such strains are viewed in Moscow as fertile ground for hybrid tactics designed to aggravate divisions within NATO \u2013 whether through disinformation, cyber intrusions, energy leverage, or escalation in contested spaces. Russian officials have consistently portrayed U.S. conditionality as hesitation, reinforcing the narrative that time favors Moscow: sustained military and political pressure, they argue, will eventually fracture allied cohesion. This perception underpins Moscow\u2019s belief that ambiguity in U.S. intentions defines the scope of freedom of action to consolidate territorial gains in Ukraine, probe the resilience of European governments, and preserve influence in the post-Soviet region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet Moscow also recognizes constraints and risks. President Trump\u2019s transactional diplomacy signals potential adjustments, but not full U.S. disengagement from European security. On the contrary, increased defense investments and planning in Washington are interpreted as bolstering deterrence vis-\u00e0-vis both Russia and China. For example, Russia has sharply criticized U.S. initiatives to expand missile defense \u2013 such as a proposal for <em>the Iron Dome for America<\/em> \u2013 casting them as efforts to alter the strategic balance. Russian strategists emphasize that the Kremlin is responding by accelerating defense modernization, fortifying bases, and sustaining high readiness across its western and southern military districts. These measures are framed as defensive necessities, but externally they signal intent to preserve coercive leverage over neighbors and maintain relevance in the global balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, Russian officials have warned of a potential <em>spiral of escalation<\/em>, portraying U.S. actions as destabilizing while seeking to retain at least minimal strategic communication channels. Notifications of missile tests and deconfliction mechanisms are maintained, reflecting Moscow\u2019s recognition that miscalculation could lead to uncontrolled confrontation. In practice, Russia\u2019s calculus thus combines <em>opportunism<\/em> y <em>caution<\/em>: exploiting perceived Western divisions while bracing for a prolonged confrontation in which deterrence, hybrid tactics, and escalation remain central instruments of statecraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-exploiting-strategic-ambiguity\"><strong>Exploiting Strategic Ambiguity<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Moscow has long treated ambiguity in U.S. commitments as an exploitable opening. Russian analysts frame uncertainty in Washington\u2019s willingness to uphold collective defense as an opportunity to advance the Kremlin\u2019s strategic interests without provoking a decisive response. As such, debates around burden-sharing, allied fatigue, and conditional U.S. guarantees expose vulnerabilities that can be systematically tested. Hybrid tactics \u2013 ranging from cyber operations and disinformation to energy coercion and covert political financing \u2013 are seen as particularly effective because they deepen divisions within allied societies and delay collective decision-making. The ambiguity in U.S. leadership thus magnifies the utility of such tools, providing freedom of action to entrench influence in the post-Soviet region and test Western resolve at low cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-late-january-mid-march-2025-intelligence-suspension-and-strategic-signaling\"><em>Late January\u2013Mid March 2025: Intelligence Suspension and Strategic Signaling<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>The first major test of the new transatlantic signaling environment came in late January through mid-March 2025, when Washington briefly curtailed the flow of intelligence to Ukraine. In early March, U.S. authorities suspended Kyiv\u2019s access to critical intelligence streams, including the Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery (GEGD) satellite imagery platform operated by Maxar. For Ukraine, this meant a sudden narrowing of situational awareness: air-defense units reported degraded early-warning capacity, while front-line commanders faced delays in receiving precision targeting data. Access was later restored around March 12, 2025, but the interruption itself carried significant strategic weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From Moscow\u2019s perspective, this suspension was interpreted less as a technical adjustment than as a revealing signal of conditionality in U.S. commitments. Russian planners appear to have concluded that U.S. support for Ukraine was no longer automatic or steady, but contingent and reversible\u2013dependent on shifting political calculations in Washington. In response, Russian forces escalated offensive pressure. On March 8, Russia conducted the (Failed) Operation \u201cPotok\u201d (Stream): this involved an infiltration maneuver through the disused Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline into Ukrainian territory near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast \u2013 a rare example of using unconventional access routes to gain positional leverage. The Kremlin also sustained long-range missile and artillery barrages elsewhere, taking advantage of Ukraine\u2019s temporarily reduced situational awareness due to degraded intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The episode had profound battlefield and strategic effects. On the battlefield, Ukraine was forced to absorb greater losses and operational friction at a moment when its ability to respond quickly depended heavily on ISR inputs. Kyiv had to lean more on uneven European sources of reconnaissance and imagery, which often lagged both in precision and speed. Strategically, Moscow achieved a low-cost probe: Washington could restore the intelligence flows, as it indeed did, yet the rupture itself allowed Russia to paint U.S. guarantees as episodic rather than steadfast. This reinforced the Kremlin\u2019s long-standing belief that time favors Russia \u2013 that sustained military pressure, combined with selective exploitation of Western ambiguity, will eventually fracture the cohesion of Ukraine\u2019s supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-march-august-2025-administrative-annexation-by-paperwork\"><em>March\u2013August 2025: Administrative Annexation by Paperwork<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>The second phase of Russia\u2019s exploitation of U.S. and Western ambiguity unfolded less through overt battles and more through paperwork and coercive administration. As the U.S. emphasized burden-sharing and conditionality in its rhetorical and policy framework, Moscow accelerated its passportization drive in the occupied territories. On March 5, 2025, President Vladimir Putin asserted that authorities had <em>virtually completed<\/em> issuing Russian passports to residents in the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev reported that 3.5 million passports had been issued in total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also on March 20, 2025, Putin signed a decree ordering Ukrainian citizens in those four occupied regions (and Crimea) to<em> <\/em><em>regulate their legal status<\/em> by September 10, 2025, or <em>leave on their own<\/em>; failure to comply would mean being classified as foreigners under Russian authorities. To residents of the occupied territories, the process is neither neutral nor optional. Reports from human rights groups describe intense coercion: denying access to health care, social benefits, employment, or property rights for those without Russian passports; bureaucratic pressure to accept Russian documentation; and legal threats (including deportation or classification as \u201cforeigners\u201d) for those who resist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The effects of this creeping plan are significant. First, the population for whom Russia can claim responsibility (including for conscription) has expanded sharply: those with passports are now formally under Russian jurisdiction in many legal and administrative matters. Second, the distinction between occupation and annexation is being blurred in daily life \u2013 not only in documentation but in the imposition of Russian legal, educational, and service systems. Third, at minimal military cost, Russia constructs facts on the ground that complicate any downstream settlement or reintegration scenario. Western governments, while condemning these moves as violations of international law and Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty, have so far treated them in statements and sanctions, rather than matching structural policy adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-august-early-september-2025-signalling-against-nato-s-new-purl-channel\"><em><em>August\u2013Early September 2025: Signalling Against NATO\u2019s New PURL Channel<\/em><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>By late summer 2025, the transatlantic debate over how to sustain Ukraine had coalesced around a new institutional mechanism \u2013 the <em>Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List<\/em> (PURL). This NATO-U.S. initiative was designed to match the U.S. administration\u2019s push for burden-sharing: Washington would continue to supply weapons from its stocks, while European allies would provide the funds. Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, and a joint group (Denmark, Norway, Sweden) each pledged approximately $500 million under the PURL mechanism in early August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moscow, however, interpreted these pledges not as signs of strengthened unity but of conditionality dressed in formal commitments. Russian state-media commentary quickly seized on the narrative that the U.S. was<em> \u201c<\/em><em>outsourcing<\/em><em>\u201d <\/em>its burden, shifting the cost (financial, political, logistical) of Ukraine\u2019s defense onto Europe. In Russian strategic assessments, PURL\u2019s structure reinforced the idea that U.S. support was subject to allied performance and continuity, heightening Moscow\u2019s incentive to test how durable those contributions would be, both in delivery and in allied political will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Operationally, Moscow\u2019s reading has translated into a campaign of deliberate and calibrated infrastructure strikes aimed not only at degrading Ukraine\u2019s warfighting capacity but also at weakening Ukrainian and Western resolve. By striking energy and transport nodes, the Kremlin seeks to impose recurring costs on the civilian economy and military logistics while producing highly visible hardship, aiming to diminish the Ukrainian will to fight. In effect, on September 8, 2025, a Russian attack struck a thermal power facility in the Kyiv region, resulting in local blackouts and gas outages and cutting supply to more than 8,000 households; most power was restored by the next morning. Then, on September 17, 2025, Russian drones attacked the Kirovohrad region, cutting power and disrupting railway services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These strikes achieve several strategic aims in Moscow\u2019s calculus. First, by targeting energy and railway \u2013 vital for both civilian economy and military logistics \u2013 Russia imposes recurring financial and operational burdens on Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to divert resources to repairs and emergency response. Second, the highly visible disruptions these attacks cause are intended to shape perceptions beyond the battlefield: blackouts, transport delays, and cascading economic costs are meant to erode public morale, weaken Ukraine\u2019s societal resilience, and amplify war fatigue among European publics. Third, the Kremlin\u2019s aim is not only to degrade Ukraine\u2019s will to fight but also to signal that while Europe pledges millions under PURL, Russia can continuously impose costs that erode Ukrainian resilience <em>faster<\/em> than those pledges can stabilize the situation, thereby testing Western political will and the durability of allied support over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-september-2025-probing-nato-s-airspace\"><em>September 2025: Probing NATO\u2019s Airspace<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In early September 2025, in parallel to intensified strikes towards Ukraine\u2019s logistics and critical infrastructure, Russia also ramped up its campaign of testing NATO\u2019s external periphery. The sequence of probes illustrates how Moscow combines calibrated disruption of Ukraine\u2019s supply arteries with creeping tests of allied defenses. Taken together, these actions show how Russia exploits ambiguity in U.S. commitments and the debates over allied burden-sharing to erode cohesion both inside Ukraine and across NATO\u2019s frontline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On September 9\u201310, 2025, between 19 and 23 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace, some loitering for hours before being intercepted. Warsaw invoked Article 4 consultations, and NATO scrambled jets, including Dutch F-35s, to engage several of the intruders. This marked the first kinetic air-defense engagement over NATO territory in the war, forcing the alliance to expend high-value munitions against low-cost drones while confronting the operational complexity of defending large airspaces. The incident was immediately taken up at the UN Security Council, underlining its global resonance, and NATO formally flagged the pattern as part of a broader Russian pressure campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just three days later, on September 13, 2025, the Kremlin repeated the tactic against another frontline ally. A Russian drone flew approximately 10 kilometers into Romanian territory and remained for nearly 50 minutes before exiting, despite F-16s being scrambled to intercept. The long loiter time suggested a deliberate test of NATO\u2019s detection and response procedures, but also underscored the ambiguity of such intrusions: the target was neither decisive enough to warrant retaliation, nor harmless enough to ignore. By repeating the probe so soon after Poland, Moscow sought to normalize these brief, ambiguous incursions as a feature of the regional security environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pattern escalated again on September 19 and 21\u201322, 2025, when three MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace for about 12 minutes before departing. Unlike drones, the use of manned aircraft raised the political stakes, triggering a NATO Council session but falling short of crossing into uncontestable <em>casus belli<\/em>. Moscow denied the violation, preserving deniability while raising allied anxiety. By choosing Estonia \u2013 NATO\u2019s northeastern flank \u2013 Russia sent a pointed signal that even direct aerial challenges could be calibrated to raise political temperature without triggering military escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These high-profile cases were set against a persistent backdrop of near-daily intercepts of Russian intelligence aircraft, such as IL-20s, over the Baltic Sea. While technically legal when conducted in international airspace, such sorties require constant NATO responses, keeping the operational tempo high and diverting allied resources from Ukraine. For Moscow, the steady rhythm of aerial probes serves as a low-cost tool to <em>\u201ckeep the water at a simmer\u201d<\/em> \u2013 gradually normalizing risk, habituating allies to heightened tension, and forcing NATO to consume time and resources on air policing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strategic effect of this September campaign was cumulative. By combining drones, prolonged loitering, manned fighter incursions, and constant ISR flights, Russia demonstrated that it could raise alliance costs and test cohesion without crossing red lines. Each move was reversible and deniable, but together they eroded the predictability of NATO\u2019s security environment. For Moscow, these actions were less about military effect than about exploiting strategic ambiguity in U.S. commitments and widening the gap between Washington\u2019s conditional guarantees and Europe\u2019s uneven capacity to respond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-s-next-spiral-of-escalation-without-end\"><em>What\u2019s Next: Spiral of Escalation Without End<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite periodic calls from Western governments for a truce or forecasts of a potential end to the war, Russia shows no signs of preparing for peace. On the contrary, both political and military indicators suggest the Kremlin is preparing for a long confrontation. Politically, the recent resignation of Dmitry Kozak\u2013once seen as an advocate of hybrid approaches and limited accommodation \u2013 along with the dismantling of his Office for Cross-Border Cooperation, signals the triumph of the so-called <em>\u201cwar party\u201d <\/em>around Sergei Kirienko. The prominence of figures such as General Andrei Mordvichev, who accompanied President Putin at the West-2025 exercises and is notorious for brutal <em>\u201cmeat assault\u201d<\/em> tactics, further underscores the consolidation of hardliners in Putin\u2019s inner circle. These shifts point not to negotiation but to the institutionalization of endless war as the Kremlin\u2019s default posture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the battlefield, Russia\u2019s actions reinforce this conclusion. The two <em>\u201ctruces\u201d<\/em> announced in 2025 \u2013 for Easter and May \u2013 were tactical ruses, exploited to regroup and redeploy rather than genuine pauses in hostilities. Current redeployments, such as the transfer of elite naval infantry and airborne units from the Sumy direction to reinforce the Pokrovsk front, reflect Moscow\u2019s preparation for sustained offensive activity into the autumn-winter campaign and beyond into 2026. Strengthening of the North and Kupyansk directions shows that Russia is already aligning forces for the next phase of attrition, with few indications of operational de-escalation. Even the September drone raid into Polish airspace, unprecedented in scope and duration, demonstrates that Moscow prefers testing NATO\u2019s thresholds to building conditions for talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taken together, these political and military markers confirm that Russia\u2019s strategy is not oriented toward a ceasefire or peace negotiations but toward managing a<em> protracted war of attrition<\/em>. Escalation \u2013 whether through bureaucratic integration of occupied territories, calibrated strikes on Ukraine\u2019s infrastructure, or probing incursions into NATO airspace \u2013 is both the method and the message. Moscow\u2019s aim is to entrench territorial control, erode Western unity, and normalize a climate of permanent confrontation. In this sense, what lies ahead is not a pathway to peace, but a <em>Spiral of Escalation Without End<\/em>, one that challenges not only Ukraine\u2019s national survival but the credibility of international institutions and the durability of the post-Cold War security order itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-calibrated-amp-creeping-escalation\"><strong>Calibrated &amp; Creeping Escalation<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s conduct of the war against Ukraine is best understood not as a static campaign but as a dynamic strategy of incremental adaptation. Two overlapping concepts capture the Kremlin\u2019s approach: <em>\u201ccalibrated escalation\u201d<\/em> y <em>\u201ccreeping escalation.\u201d<\/em> Both serve to expand Moscow\u2019s freedom of action, undermine deterrence, and test the limits of Western resolve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Calibrated Escalation<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Creeping Escalation<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A strategy of <strong>controlled, visible, and reversible actions<\/strong> designed to impose costs and send signals without crossing thresholds that would trigger overwhelming retaliation. Its essence lies in <em>signaling, coercion<\/em> y <em>psychological pressure<\/em>.<\/td><td>A strategy of <strong>incremental, ambiguous, and cumulative actions<\/strong> designed to gradually normalize new realities and raise tolerance for risk. Its essence lies in <em>normalization, habituation<\/em> y <em>gradual fait accompli<\/em>.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Strikes on Energy infrastructure<\/strong> <br>Visible: Attacks are large enough to be noticed. <br>Controlled: Targets are chosen to seriously disrupt \u2013 not destroy \u2013 the grid. <br>Reversible: Damage can often be repaired within days or weeks. <br><br><strong><em>-&gt; It demonstrates capability and resolve while retaining the option to stop further strikes and allow recovery.<\/em><\/strong> <strong><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong> &nbsp;<\/td><td><strong>Drone\/Jet Probes of NATO Airspace<\/strong> <br>Incremental: Frequent but limited incursions become \u201croutine\u201d. <br>Ambiguous: Each incident is deniable as a navigation error or an accident. <br>Cumulative: Normalizes a higher baseline of risk for NATO air defense. <br><br><strong><em>-&gt; Instead of a dramatic clash, repeated small probes are testing NATO boundaries, putting divisions between the allies and undermining trust.<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Military Exercises Near NATO Borders<\/strong> <br>Visible: Troop and equipment movements are highly visible and public. <br>Controlled: Can be withdrawn or redeployed quickly if the intended deterrent or coercive signal has been achieved. <br>Reversible: Allies must respond with readiness measures, but no territory is seized, and escalation can be rolled back. <br><strong><em>-&gt; It raises tension, tests allied responses, and communicates risk, yet remains temporary and reversible.<\/em><\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Gradual Integration of Occupied Territories<\/strong> <br>Incremental: Ruble imposed, curricula in schools introduced, local elections run, Russian passports issued. <br>Ambiguous: Each step appears \u201cadministrative.\u201d <br>Cumulative: Together, they institutionalize Russian governance structures. <br><br><strong><em>-&gt; No single decisive move, but steady normalization of Russian authority over time.<\/em><\/strong> <strong><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Negotiation Track Management<\/strong> <br>Visible: Moscow declares a \u201cstop\u201d to talks or withdraws from dialogue while simultaneously sustaining strikes, using the suspension of diplomacy as a coercive signal. <br>Controlled: The Kremlin maintains minimal backchannels and can at any moment announce readiness to resume dialogue, preserving its flexibility <br>Reversible: Russia can re-enter or exit negotiations at will, portraying these moves as concessions or retaliations depending on its tactical needs. <br><strong><em>-&gt; It buys time, gains diplomatic cover, and tests Western unity\u2013whereas in fact it has no real interest in substantive peacetalks, only in shaping perceptions and sustaining leverage.<\/em><\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Gradual Expansion of Cyber Intrusions<\/strong> <br><br>Incremental: Continuous low-level cyber operations against Western infrastructure. <br>Ambiguous: Attributed ambiguously, often masked as criminal or technical incidents. <br>Cumulative: Over time, Western actors adjust to persistent interference as the \u201cnew normal.\u201d <br><br><strong><em>-&gt; No single attack justifies full retaliation, but the steady pace habituates to enduring Russian pressure in the cyber domain.<\/em><\/strong> <strong><em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Temporary Suspension of Arms\u2013Control Obligations<\/strong> <br>Visible: Public announcement that Russia is suspending inspections or information-sharing (e.g., New START). <br>Controlled: Suspension covers certain provisions while others remain. <br>Reversible: Compliance can be reinstated quickly if negotiations change. <br><br><strong><em>-&gt; It raises strategic pressure by undermining transparency but leaves space for restoration, showing coercive intent without a point of no return.<\/em><\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Negotiation Track Management<\/strong> <br>Incremental: Establishing new bases, radar sites, or patrol routes one by one.<br>Ambiguous: Each move framed as \u201croutine defense\u201d or \u201cinfrastructure modernization.\u201d<br>Cumulative: Over years, Russia achieves de facto control of key Arctic zones without a single dramatic clash.<br><br><strong><em>-> Individually low-cost steps gradually normalize expanded Russian military presence and strategic claims.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Escalation Ladder vs Calibrated &amp; Creeping Escalation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El <strong><em>Escalation ladder<\/em><\/strong>, originally conceptualized by Herman Kahn and later adapted in NATO and Russian debates, is a <strong>hierarchical, stage-based, structured, and linear<\/strong> model that maps the progression from diplomatic pressure to full nuclear exchange. Each rung signifies a qualitatively higher level of violence and risk, making the ladder a broad and formal model well suited for capturing the full spectrum of potential escalation, especially at nuclear thresholds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By contrast, the distinction between <em>Calibrated &amp; Creeping escalation<\/em> describes modes of action rather than rungs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Calibrated escalation<\/em><\/strong> reflects the selective use of higher rungs in a visible but reversible way, intended to send signals and impose costs without irreversibly moving upward. <strong>Formula (simplified): <\/strong><em>short, controlled, reversible actions \u2192 signaling, coercion, psychological pressure.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Creeping escalation<\/em><\/strong> reflects the incremental occupation of lower and mid-level rungs through ambiguous, deniable steps that accumulate over time, effectively normalizing new realities without a dramatic leap. <strong>Formula (simplified): <\/strong><em>long-term, incremental, deniable moves \u2192 normalization, habituation, gradual fait accompli.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Analytically, the <strong><em>Escalation ladder<\/em><\/strong> provides the structural map, while <strong><em>Calibrated vs. Creeping escalation<\/em><\/strong> offers behavioral insight into how Russia navigates within and between rungs. For assessing Russia\u2019s day-to-day strategy in Ukraine and vis-\u00e0-vis NATO, the calibrated\/creeping distinction is often more precise, as it explains not only where Moscow operates on the ladder but also how it advances \u2013 sometimes through demonstrative, controlled strikes, and at other times through gradual, salami-slice tactics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>For Ukraine and its partners, the central challenge lies in recognizing these tactics as part of a coherent doctrine rather than disparate provocations. Calibrated escalation must not be dismissed as \u201cmere signaling,\u201d and creeping escalation should not be tolerated as an unavoidable by-product of war. Instead, a strategy of pre-emptive resilience and proactive deterrence is needed: strengthening civil defense against infrastructure strikes, bolstering Europe\u2019s counter-sabotage and air defense capacity, and integrating Ukrainian security into the broader Western planning framework.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-s-silent-gains\"><strong>China\u2019s Silent Gains<\/strong><br><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>During the Biden years, Beijing cultivated the image of a <em>neutral mediator<\/em>. In February 2023, it released its <em>12-point peace plan<\/em>, which called for dialogue, territorial integrity, and the end of Cold War thinking, while carefully avoiding criticism of Russia\u2019s invasion. Official statements often accused NATO and the United States of <em>fanning the flames<\/em> of conflict, but China avoided explicitly endorsing Moscow\u2019s aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since Trump\u2019s return to office, Chinese rhetoric has sharpened. Chinese media blame the U.S. for exercising unilateral coercion against its own allies, pressuring them to impose tougher sanctions against Russia and halt the purchases of Russian oil and gas. Beijing has also more assertively promoted its narrative of an <em>orderly multipolar world<\/em>, often aligning its messaging with Russia\u2019s denunciation of <em>Western hegemony<\/em>. While still calling for peace talks, Beijing\u2019s tone has shifted from mediation to a critique of Western disunity, capitalizing on U.S.-Europe tensions under Trump. Nevertheless, Beijing appears to be one of those who greatly benefit from the war \u2013 strategically, economically, and politically, pursuing its own agenda under the proclaimed <em>neutrality<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-drawing-lessons-from-the-war\"><strong>Drawing Lessons from the War<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><br>For China, one of the most significant strategic gains from Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has been the opportunity to study modern battlefield dynamics in real time. Researchers within the People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) have closely analyzed the performance of U.S. weapons systems and technologies, as well as the innovations developed jointly by Ukraine and its Western partners. In effect, Beijing may even attempt to replicate capabilities that proved decisive in the war, such as the use of Starlink for secure communications and battlefield coordination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps the most consequential insight for Chinese strategists concerns the limitations of the U.S. defense industrial base. PLA assessments increasingly highlight that Washington cannot easily sustain a prolonged, high-intensity conflict at current levels of production, stockpiles, and cost-efficiency. While the United States retains a clear technological edge over Russia, its ability to maintain that advantage weakens in a war of attrition \u2013 precisely the type of conflict that Ukraine has become.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beijing is also watching the political dimension of the war with equal attention. Chinese analysts study how U.S. alliances have responded to Russian aggression, probing whether Western governments act preemptively or reactively, and how sustained their unity remains under pressure. At the same time, China has drawn lessons from Russia\u2019s battlefield experience, absorbing both Moscow\u2019s tactical missteps and the adaptations that have enabled it to endure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-s-stake-in-the-war-continuation\"><strong>China\u2019s Stake in the War Continuation<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>China has little incentive to promote an early end to the Russia-Ukraine war, because the conflict yields strategic, economic, and geopolitical dividends for Beijing. In 2024, Sino-Russian trade surged to a record of roughly $237 billion. Even with growth slowing, the volume underscores how essential China has become to Moscow. The trade relationship is heavily asymmetric: Russia relies on China for a key export market and supply of industrial goods; China benefits from discounted energy and deeper economic ties.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond trade volume, Beijing has played a critical enabling role in Russia\u2019s war effort. Chinese exports of microelectronics, optics, drone components, machine tools, and other dual-use goods continue to flow into Russia, facilitating Moscow\u2019s defense industrial base under sanctions. In early 2025 alone, China ramped up exports in optics for UAVs, aerial\/radar reflector parts, printed circuit boards, and engine components. Chinese firms have also allegedly supplied gunpowder, special chemicals, tooling equipment, and defense components to at least 20 Russian military production facilities, often via shell companies to mask the transaction. This evidently places <em>China as an enabler of Russia\u2019s war machine<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From China\u2019s perspective, a Russia that has collapsed, fragmented, or undergone severe internal turmoil would pose serious risks. Instability along the 4,200-kilometer border, refugee flows, or an unpredictable regime in Moscow would be costly. It is therefore in China\u2019s interest to allow Russia to remain weakened but stable enough to be a reliable partner or buffer. Beijing\u2019s approach to Russia is <em>defensive<\/em> in this regard: preventing Moscow\u2019s defeat or collapse helps preserve a predictable geopolitical buffer and ensures continuity of energy and resource access. Also, losing Russia as a counterbalance in Eurasia would leave China more exposed in a geostrategic sense. By letting the conflict drag on, China indirectly benefits from the geopolitical frictions and fractures it can exploit: strains in U.S.-Europe relations, pressure on Western defense budgets, and questioning of alliance cohesion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, the longer the conflict lasts, the more leverage China accumulates <em>vis-\u00e0-vis<\/em> Moscow and, potentially, the West. Because Russia depends on China for economic sustenance, arms inputs, and trade access under sanctions, Beijing has bargaining chips. Beyond this leverage, China and Russia share overlapping interests through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has anchored cooperation in infrastructure, trade, and energy. Projects such as the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, the New Eurasian Land Bridge, and cross-border infrastructure like the Heihe-Blagoveshchensk bridge tie Russia more deeply into China\u2019s connectivity agenda, while joint discussions on aligning the BRI with the Eurasian Economic Union aim to harmonize trade rules and logistics across Eurasia. For Beijing, these projects secure reliable access to energy, raw materials, and faster routes to Europe; for Moscow, they offer investment and transit opportunities amid Western sanctions. Yet the asymmetry is clear: Russia increasingly risks becoming <em>a junior partner<\/em> and transit hub in China\u2019s grand strategy, which only enhances Beijing\u2019s capacity to demand political, economic, or security concessions in any future post-war settlement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, Russia has little interest in being perceived as a junior partner, as it is being reduced to a supplier of raw materials and a transit corridor for Chinese trade. These dynamics represent friction points in the relationship that can be strategically exploited: while a full rupture between Moscow and Beijing is unlikely, raising the costs of cooperation, for example, through secondary sanctions and tariffs that would significantly affect Chinese firms trading with Russia. Such measures could dampen Beijing\u2019s appetite for deepening economic ties, thereby weakening the incentive structure underpinning the partnership.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kyiv\u2019s Perception of Beijing\u2019s Role<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kyiv has oscillated between caution and skepticism toward Beijing. Under Biden, Ukraine welcomed Chinese envoy Li Hui\u2019s 2023 visit, but Ukrainian officials consistently voiced doubts about China\u2019s neutrality, noting its refusal to condemn Russia\u2019s aggression. President Zelenskyy signaled openness to Chinese involvement in peace efforts, though only as a supplement to Western support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s second tenure has pushed Kyiv further away from Beijing. In April 2025, Ukraine imposed sanctions on several Chinese companies for supplying Russia with missile-related technologies. Ukraine increasingly sees China as too closely aligned with Moscow to play a constructive role. Nevertheless, China has continued to promote itself as a potential mediator in the war. Throughout 2025, Beijing has advanced ceasefire proposals under the umbrella of its Global Security Initiative, while envoy Li Hui has maintained contacts in Kyiv and Moscow. Yet Ukrainian officials regard these peace efforts with deep skepticism, noting that China avoids pressing Russia to withdraw its troops and frames negotiations in a way that would freeze the conflict on unfavorable terms. Furthermore, active Chinese involvement in peace efforts risks sidelining the U.S. and Europe, bolstering Russia\u2019s position and reinforcing the narrative that the West bears responsibility for the conflict.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Ukraine has remained heavily dependent on Chinese components for drone production. The country has particularly relied on DJI, a Chinese state-backed company and one of the world\u2019s leading suppliers of drone components. Encouragingly for Ukraine, however, this dependence is beginning to shift. Among the most critical items that cannot yet be produced domestically are optical fiber, transmitters, batteries, and electric motors. Earlier this year, President Zelenskyy announced that China had restricted drone exports to Ukraine, while continuing deliveries to Russia, where Chinese components account for as much as 80% of the supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This situation has accelerated Ukraine\u2019s drive to build domestic capacity. Given the potential to export Ukrainian-made drones to European markets, local manufacturers are increasingly focused on establishing independent production of key components. For instance, in July 2024, Vyriy Drone announced the successful production of the first batch of 1,000 FPV drones assembled entirely from Ukrainian-made components. Similarly, other companies such as Wild Hornets and Odd Systems are developing domestically produced parts that are not only cheaper but also better suited to the specific needs of Ukraine\u2019s defense sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains, Ukraine strengthens its defense resilience and lays the groundwork for closer integration into Europe\u2019s defense industry. In the long term, the emergence of a robust domestic drone manufacturing ecosystem positions Ukraine not only as a consumer but also as a potential exporter of cutting-edge defense technology, deepening its role as a strategic partner in the Euro-Atlantic security community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ukraine-from-hopes-of-victory-to-national-survival\"><strong>Ukraine: From Hopes of Victory to National Survival<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In the first year of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion, Ukraine\u2019s war narrative was dominated by the prospect of victory. After halting Russia\u2019s assault on Kyiv and retaking Kharkiv and Kherson in late 2022, Western and Ukrainian leaders openly spoke about pushing Russian forces back further and restoring full territorial integrity. Media and political discourse in 2022\u20132023 frequently portrayed Ukrainian resilience as proof that Moscow\u2019s defeat was plausible with sustained Western support. Western military assistance reflected this optimism: high-end systems such as HIMARS rocket artillery, Leopard tanks, and eventually F-16 fighter jets were delivered in the expectation that Ukraine could convert qualitative advantages into rapid battlefield gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By 2023\u20132024, however, this <em>victory<\/em> narrative gave way to the reality of a <em>protracted war of attrition<\/em>. Ukraine\u2019s long-anticipated counteroffensive in summer 2023 did not deliver the expected results, while Russia entrenched itself in defensive lines, ramped up mobilization, and adapted its economy to sustain prolonged fighting. Analysts and officials began warning of <em>war fatigue<\/em> in Western capitals, as ammunition shortages and delays in aid deliveries undermined operational tempo. Support packages shifted away from prestige platforms toward more fundamental needs, such as artillery shells, air defence interceptors, and repair capacity for equipment worn down in grinding positional battles. Such a transition can be explained by the prolonged nature of the war and the need to sustain combat effectiveness under a grinding operational environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By 2025, with the arrival of the Trump administration and mounting uncertainty over U.S. commitments, Ukraine\u2019s political and strategic discourse shifted decisively toward national survival. President Volodymyr Zelensky and key ministers emphasized that the central task was not immediate liberation of all territory, but ensuring Ukraine\u2019s continued existence as a sovereign, functioning state. This required sustaining the war effort across multiple dimensions: a defense and industrial base capable of producing at least 60% of Ukraine\u2019s equipment needs by late 2025, an energy system resilient against Russian strikes, an economy that could finance record-high defense spending, and a diplomatic strategy to keep international partners invested despite political headwinds. In this new narrative, victory is redefined not as a rapid battlefield breakthrough but as the capacity to endure, ensuring long-term national survival. This should not be considered a stalemate but rather a strategic approach, as Ukraine\u2019s goal shifts to imposing sufficient costs on Russia until continued aggression becomes clearly futile. That moment of recognition, when Moscow concludes that further fighting delivers no strategic returns, can be reached sooner if Ukraine is supplied with the right mix of capabilities. In practice, this means prioritising sustainment items (artillery munitions, air-defence interceptors, spare parts and repair capacity, logistics, and ammunition production) over prestige platforms, so Ukrainian forces can maintain the fight at a tempo and cost that steadily erodes Russia\u2019s will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-defense-amp-industrial-base\"><strong>Defense &amp; Industrial Base<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The Trump administration\u2019s early 2025 approach introduced a two-stage shock: several freezes of foreign assistance followed by a more conditional, transactional re-engagement that emphasises U.S. presidential authority (drawdowns, security guarantees, negotiated packages) rather than the steady congressional appropriations and clear, predictable supply lines that characterized earlier U.S. policy. That shift accelerated a European move from \u2018send weapons\u2019 to \u2018buy &amp; co-produce weapons\u2019, and pushed Kyiv to prioritize industrial self-reliance, ammunition stockpiling, and air-defense capacity. The result is a more uncertain short-term operational environment for Ukraine due to supply interruptions, but also a partial structural benefit: faster European industrial mobilization and a boost to Ukraine\u2019s own defense production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result of the more than three-year-long battlefield developments, rapid adoption of new tactics and technologies, and the fluctuating nature of Western support, Ukraine\u2019s defense industrial base has undergone a profound transformation. It has shifted from a largely Soviet-inherited structure into a wartime innovation hub that prioritizes adaptability, decentralized production, and integration with European supply chains. With defense budget allocations of about 26% of Ukraine\u2019s GDP, the country\u2019s defense industrial base has mobilized a wide spectrum of resources, starting from foreign financing and procurement to joint ventures with Western companies and to civil society\u2019s proactivity in order to expand domestic production and cover as many of the country\u2019s defense needs as possible. This encompasses unmanned aerial systems, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, munitions, cruise missiles, and communications equipment. According to President Zelenskyy, as of September 2025, <em>\u201cUkraine has reached the point where nearly 60% of the weapons we have, the weapons in the hands of our soldiers, are Ukrainian-made.\u201d&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has dramatically ramped up its drone industry, turning unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and first-person-view (FPV) drones into one of the most important asymmetric warfare tools on its battlefields. Growing out of necessity, Ukraine\u2019s drone industry has become a central pillar of its wartime industrial response: inexpensive, rapidly manufactured unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and FPV <em>\u201c<\/em><em>kamikaze<\/em><em>\u201d<\/em> drones offer a high cost-to-kill ratio that is well suited to a sustained, attritional conflict. Production has surged: monthly output is now cited by Ukrainian media and industry observers at around 200,000+ drones per month, while Kyiv has set procurement plans for roughly 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025 alone, backed by a multibillion-dollar procurement budget.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has also initiated a strategic approach by establishing offshore weapons production lines. This move allows Ukrainian-designed military equipment to be manufactured in allied countries, circumventing domestic production limitations and reducing vulnerability to Russia\u2019s strikes. For instance, in September 2025, Ukrainian company Fire Point launched its first joint production facility in Denmark. This initiative is part of the broader &#8220;Build for Ukraine&#8221; program, which aims to protect critical defense infrastructure by relocating production to NATO-member states. Denmark has contributed $50 million to support the localization of production lines on its territory. Norway, Germany, the UK, and Lithuania have also expressed interest in participating in this program. These offshore production lines not only enhance the security and scalability of Ukraine&#8217;s drone capabilities but also foster deeper defense ties with European partners.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Range and capability likewise span a broad spectrum \u2013 from short-range FPV quadcopters used for trench-level strikes and reconnaissance, commonly operating over a few kilometres, to tactical loitering munitions and purpose-built strike UAS that extend beyond 40\u2013300 km. Ukraine\u2019s producers have also moved beyond swarms of cheap FPV drones, developing long-range capabilities. Examples include the Peklo <em>\u201crocket-drone,\u201d<\/em> a turbo\/rocket-powered, cruise-like weapon intended for strikes at several hundred kilometres, as well as much larger cruise-missile-style designs such as Fire Point\u2019s Flamingo, capable of travelling 3,000km and delivering a payload of 1,150kg. Strategically, credible deep-strike weapons expand Ukraine\u2019s deterrent and operational options by forcing Russian forces to disperse and defend rear areas, complicating Moscow\u2019s logistics and command posture. At the same time, mid-range drones enabled Ukraine to establish a kill-zone, a territory up to 30 km on both sides of the front line, where UAVs track every movement and neutralize targets with ease. This tactic is widely used by both sides, and the constant development of such capabilities increasingly defines who leads the contest for battlefield initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s exposure to foreign supply disruptions and political halts in aid also becomes less acute. However, cutting-edge components (optical sensors, engines, secure guidance, and communication systems) still depend heavily on imports, especially from Europe and the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, Ukraine still heavily relies on foreign military assistance, technology, and capabilities. Among all, Ukraine is particularly dependent on Western air defense systems and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Air defense remains the single most critical shortfall: Ukraine relies on U.S.-supplied Patriot and NASAMS systems and European contributions such as IRIS-T (Germany), SAMP\/T (France\u2013Italy), and Gepard anti-aircraft guns (Germany). Encouragingly enough, Western defense manufacturers are increasingly willing to establish production lines and joint ventures in Ukraine. Germany\u2019s Diehl Defence signed a \u20ac2.2 billion contract with Kyiv to produce IRIS-T air defense systems and missiles, while Norway\u2019s Kongsberg Defence &amp; Aerospace plans to manufacture NASAMS missiles locally and is negotiating a joint venture to enable mass production based on Ukrainian technology. Similar initiatives are underway with France\u2019s Thales International, which will cooperate on air defense, radars, electronic warfare, and communications systems, and Denmark has agreed to host Ukrainian production of solid rocket fuel on its territory \u2013 a first for a NATO country. These efforts highlight a broader trend toward technology transfer and the increasing trust in Ukrainian partners.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, Ukrainian producers are testing advanced, domestically developed air defense systems supported by the government-backed Brave1 defense tech incubator to help address gaps created by limited Western supplies and ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the Trump administration, the U.S. has signaled a pivot away from open-ended support, leading to the creation of a new NATO mechanism, the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), designed to coordinate urgent battlefield needs. PURL channels U.S. weapons from American stockpiles but requires European allies to finance the deliveries, aligning with Trump\u2019s burden-sharing approach. So far, the Netherlands, the Nordic states, and Germany have pledged roughly $1.5 billion through PURL, and the first packages are focused heavily on air defense and munitions. By enabling Ukraine to rely on allied funding to procure U.S.-made weapons, PURL provides a buffer against unpredictable U.S. aid flows. As of July 2025, the U.S. has committed almost $960 million in arms sales to Ukraine under the FMS program. However, should U.S. stockpiles run low, further Foreign Military Sales (FMS) may be subject to Trump\u2019s more transactional foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On ISR, Ukraine depends heavily on Western capabilities. U.S. satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and airborne platforms remain important for targeting and early warning. The March 2025 suspension of U.S. intelligence transfers, including the disabling of Ukrainian access to the Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery (GEGD) satellite imagery platform, had immediate battlefield consequences: Ukrainian air defense operators lost timely warning of incoming missile and drone attacks, while front-line commanders reported delays in precision targeting data. European actors have attempted to step up their contributions, with the EU directing fresh funding toward satellite reconnaissance under the European Defence Fund. However, European ISR capacity remains underdeveloped: most EU member states lack sovereign satellite constellations capable of providing persistent, high-resolution battlefield imagery, and joint projects are years away from operational maturity. Analysts note that the fragmented and slow-moving nature of European defense procurement makes it unlikely that Europe will be able to close the ISR gap in the short to medium term. Without steady access to U.S. space-based ISR, Ukraine is forced to rely on patchwork European systems, leaving critical infrastructure more exposed and limiting Kyiv\u2019s ability to sustain effective battlefield operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-energy-amp-critical-infrastructure\"><strong>Energy &amp; Critical Infrastructure<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 2022, Ukraine\u2019s energy and critical infrastructure have suffered severe damage after becoming one of Russia\u2019s key targets. From the pre-war capacity to generate 25 GW, Ukraine\u2019s energy production plummeted to approximately 9 GW in 2023-2024. Following reparation campaigns, the power-generating capacity accounted for approximately 15 GW in early 2025, with a 3 GW shortage to meet the country\u2019s basic power needs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has steadily built a layered system to protect its energy and critical infrastructure, learning in the process. At first, the response was ad hoc: emergency generators, patchwork repairs, and humanitarian fuel deliveries kept essential services running. This gradual evolution turned infrastructure protection from an emergency patchwork into a coordinated national resilience effort. By 2025, the emphasis shifted away from simply repairing damaged centralized plants toward reshaping the architecture of the grid itself. Decentralization became a guiding principle: municipalities and industrial zones were encouraged to deploy local generation capacity, often powered by gas turbines or renewables, which could keep critical services running even if transmission lines were cut. At the same time, donors and Ukrainian planners began to see renewable energy not just as part of the country\u2019s green transition but as a security asset: distributed solar and wind installations, paired with battery storage, offered redundancy that large thermal or nuclear plants could not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Foreign aid has played a key role in supporting Ukraine\u2019s energy resilience. The U.S., once a leading source of direct technical and financial assistance, has shifted its approach under President Trump. Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. support, channeled largely through USAID\u2019s Energy Security Project and related programs, funded emergency repairs, grid stabilization, and advisory support for renewable market reforms. This brought the overall U.S. commitment to Ukraine\u2019s energy system to approximately $1.5 billion since 2022. Since early 2025, Washington has reframed its role around strategic investment and resource security. The U.S.\u2013Ukraine Mineral Resources Agreement, signed in May 2025, provides American companies with preferential access to Ukraine\u2019s critical minerals in exchange for support in rebuilding the energy sector. According to CSIS, the idea of a Ukraine Clean Energy Fund, seeded jointly by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and European partners, is currently under consideration. It would allow them to co-invest in decentralized renewable projects nationwide. Unlike past USAID programs, this approach privileges private-sector partnerships over direct aid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-economy-amp-fiscal-resilience\"><strong>Economy &amp; Fiscal Resilience<\/strong><br><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s economy remains under severe fiscal strain as the war continues to sap output and require large public expenditures. Real GDP growth is modest (around ~2% in 2025), while inflation remains elevated. The government\u2019s fiscal position is stretched: public spending, particularly elevated defense outlays, has pushed the budget deficit to roughly 20% of GDP in 2025, with public and publicly-guaranteed debt rising toward triple-digits as a share of GDP. These dynamics have forced Kyiv to rely heavily on foreign budget support and concessional financing to cover both recurrent needs and reconstruction priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Donor financing and IFIs support underpin short-term fiscal stability and medium-term reconstruction planning. An updated World Bank assessment places Ukraine\u2019s recovery and reconstruction needs at roughly $524 billion over the coming decade, while a near-term financing gap for 2025 alone was estimated at about $10 billion after donor allocations. Kyiv\u2019s external financing needs for 2025 have been put at around $39-40 billion, of which a significant share must be secured from multilateral lenders, EU packages, and bilateral partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the Biden administration, the United States provided substantial economic and financial assistance to Ukraine to support its war-torn economy and reconstruction efforts. Between 2022 and early 2025, Congress appropriated approximately $37.8 billion for direct financial support to Ukraine&#8217;s central budget. This funding aimed to stabilize Ukraine&#8217;s economy, cover essential expenditures such as pensions and public sector salaries, and facilitate reconstruction initiatives. Additionally, the U.S. fully delivered on its commitment to provide economic support through Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loans, making available approximately $20 billion as part of the broader G7 ERA package totaling $50 billion. These loans, disbursed through the World Bank\u2019s FORTIS Financial Intermediary Fund, were designed to be repaid using revenue generated from immobilized Russian sovereign assets, ensuring that the support did not burden U.S. taxpayers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, the Trump administration, which took office in January 2025, adopted a more transactional approach to economic aid. The U.S. and Ukraine have set up the United States\u2013Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, following the signing of the U.S.-Ukraine Critical Minerals Agreement. Ukraine and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation have recently announced commitments of $75 million to the fund, designed to finance projects in energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals. Under the agreement, the U.S. gains preferential access to new Ukrainian mineral projects, while half of the revenues generated from mineral extraction are directed to the fund, with profits shared between Kyiv and Washington. By leveraging Ukraine&#8217;s rich natural resources, the agreement aims to provide a steady stream of funding for reconstruction projects, thereby contributing to the country&#8217;s economic resilience in the face of ongoing challenges. Nevertheless, the reduction in direct U.S. financial aid has placed additional pressure on Ukraine to secure funding from other international partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-references\">References<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>From Multilateralism to America First: The U.S. Foreign Policy Shift<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Shapiro, Jeremy (April, 2021). <em>Biden\u2019s Everything Doctrine. The Mantle of Global Leadership Doesn\u2019t Fit a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class.<\/em> Foreign Affaris. https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/united-states\/2021-04-22\/bidens-everything-doctrine<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Colin Dueck (March, 2024). <em>The Biden doctrine.<\/em> Hoover Institution. https:\/\/www.hoover.org\/research\/biden-doctrine<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (October, 2022). <em>National Security Strategy.<\/em> The White House. https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ashley J. Tellis (May, 2024). <em>Inevitable Fractures: The Ukraine War and the Global System. <\/em>Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2024\/05\/inevitable-fractures-the-ukraine-war-and-the-global-system?lang=en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stewart M. Patrick (April, 2021). <em>The Biden Administration and the Future of Multilateralism.<\/em> Council on Foreign Relations. https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/blog\/biden-administration-and-future-multilateralism<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (2021). <em>Annual report \u2013 2021.<\/em> Brookings Institute. https:\/\/annualreport.brookings.edu\/foreign-policy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Patrick Quirk (July, 2024). <em>Advancing freedom, defeating authoritarianism: A democracy agenda for 2025-2029.<\/em> Atlantic Council. https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/in-depth-research-reports\/report\/advancing-freedom-defeating-authoritarianism-a-democracy-agenda-for-2025-2029<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Christopher Preble (January, 2024). <em>A Credible Grand Strategy: The Urgent Need to Set Priorities.<\/em> Stimson. https:\/\/www.stimson.org\/2024\/a-credible-grand-strategy-the-urgent-need-to-set-priorities<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fabrice Pothier &amp; Alexander Vershbow (June, 2017). <em>NATO and Trump: The Case for a New Transatlantic Bargain.<\/em> Atlantic Council. https:\/\/espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu\/orbis\/system\/files\/generated\/document\/en\/NATO_and_Trump_web_0623.pdf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alexander Velez-Green &amp; Robert Peters (August, 2024). <em>The Prioritization Imperative: A Strategy to Defend America\u2019s Interests in a More Dangerous World.<\/em> The Heritage Foundation. https:\/\/www.heritage.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-09\/SR288_0.pdf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Saraphin Dhanani &amp; Tyler McBrien (November, 2022). A Tale of Two Strategies: Comparing the Biden and Trump National Security Strategies. LawFare. https:\/\/www.lawfaremedia.org\/article\/tale-two-strategies-comparing-biden-and-trump-national-security-strategies<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (October, 2022). <em>2022 National Defense Strategy: Implications for China and the Indo-Pacific.<\/em> Center for Strategic International Studies. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/2022-national-defense-strategy-implications-china-and-indo-pacific<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Max Bergmann &amp; Jon Alterman (February, 2025). <em>Does Europe Matter in the Middle East?<\/em> Center for Strategic International Studies. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/max-bergmann-does-europe-matter-middle-east<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nicholas Adamopoulos (May, 2025). <em>What Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security Environment. <\/em>Center for Strategic International Studies. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/what-allies-want-european-priorities-contested-security-environment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Victor Cha (November, 2024). <em>How Trump Sees Allies and Partners.<\/em> Center for Strategic International Studies. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/how-trump-sees-allies-and-partners<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (June, 2025). <em>CSIS Press Briefing: Previewing the G7 Summit.<\/em> Center for Strategic International Studies. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/csis-press-briefing-previewing-g7-summit<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lawrence Anderson (January, 2025). <em>Predicting the Unpredictable: Trump\u2019s Foreign Policy 2.0.<\/em> RSIS. https:\/\/rsis.edu.sg\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/CO25004.pdf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Roseanne McManus (January, 2025). <em>The Limits of the Madman Theory: How Trump\u2019s Unpredictability Could Hurt His Foreign Policy<\/em>.<em> <\/em>Foreign Affairs. https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/limits-madman-theory<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Charles W. Dunne (February, 2025). <em>Trump\u2019s Second-Term Foreign Policy: Highly Centralized, and Highly Personal. <\/em>Arab Center Washington D.C. https:\/\/arabcenterdc.org\/resource\/trumps-second-term-foreign-policy-highly-centralized-and-highly-personal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Missy Ryan, Jonathan Lemitre &amp; others (August, 2025). <em>The Tiny White House Club Making Major National-Security Decisions. <\/em>The Atlantic. https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/national-security\/archive\/2025\/08\/trump-national-security-decisions\/683887<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Luis da Vinha &amp; Anthony Dutton (March, 2022). <em>Embracing the Maverick: The Evolution of President Donald Trump\u2019s Management of Foreign Policy-Making.<\/em> CEJISS. https:\/\/cejiss.org\/embracing-the-maverick-the-evolution-of-president-donald-trump-s-management-of-foreign-policy-making<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Michael McFaul (February, 2025). <em>Foreign Policy: Where Is Trump Going?<\/em> Hoover Institution. https:\/\/www.hoover.org\/research\/foreign-policy-where-trump-going<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ruben Ortiz (May, 2025). <em>A Departure from Diplomatic Norms: Trump\u2019s Break with U.S. Foreign Policy Traditions.<\/em> Fordham Political Review. https:\/\/fordhampoliticalreview.org\/a-departure-from-diplomatic-norms-trumps-break-with-u-s-foreign-policy-traditions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thomas Wright (September, 2019). <em>Commentary: Bolton\u2019s Departure Signals Trump\u2019s Foreign-Policy Pivot.<\/em> Brookings Institution. https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/boltons-departure-signals-trumps-foreign-policy-pivot<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Osama S. 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Chivvis, Jeniffer Kavanagh &amp; others (July, 2024). <em>Strategic Change in U.S. Foreign Policy.<\/em> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2024\/07\/strategic-change-us-foreign-policy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Doug Bandow (April, 2024). <em>Europe Is Starting to Wake Up to Needing Defense\u2013Including a Nuclear Deterrent.<\/em> CATO Institute. https:\/\/www.cato.org\/commentary\/europe-starting-wake-needing-defense-including-nuclear-deterrent<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Marc Trachtenberg (October, 2024). <em>Is There Life After NATO?<\/em> CATO Institute. https:\/\/www.cato.org\/policy-analysis\/there-life-after-nato<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kori Schake (August, 2021). <em>Understanding American Alliances, Past and Future.<\/em> AEI. https:\/\/www.aei.org\/articles\/understanding-american-alliances-past-and-future<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Emma Ashford, Joshua Shifrinson &amp; Stephen Wertheim (May, 2023). <em>Europe Must Step Up.<\/em> CATO Institute. https:\/\/www.cato.org\/commentary\/europe-must-step-up<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Justin Logan (July, 2025). <em>Trump Shouldn\u2019t Settle for European Spending Pledges.<\/em> CATO Institute. https:\/\/www.cato.org\/commentary\/trump-shouldnt-settle-european-spending-pledges<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Matteo Meloni (February, 2025). <em>NATO, Ukraine, and the U.S. Strategy: The Geopolitical Implications of Trump\u2019s Vision.<\/em> Special Eurasia. https:\/\/www.specialeurasia.com\/2025\/02\/24\/us-nato-ukraine-trump<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kanishka Singh (August, 2025). <em>Vance says Europe will have to take &#8216;lion&#8217;s share&#8217; of burden for Ukrainian security.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/vance-says-europe-will-have-take-lions-share-burden-ukrainian-security-2025-08-20<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eli Stokols &amp; Dasha Burns (July, 2025). <em>\u2018We\u2019re not buying it\u2019: Trump ties Ukraine aid to America First.<\/em> Politico. https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/07\/14\/trumps-ukraine-aid-fits-america-first-00452809<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gracelin Baskaran &amp; Meredith Schwartz (May, 2025). <em>What to Know About the Signed U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal.<\/em> CSIS. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/what-know-about-signed-us-ukraine-minerals-deal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Liana Fox (January, 2025). <em>Partners in Peacemaking: How the United States and Europe Can End the War in Ukraine. <\/em>Council on Foreign Relations. https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/article\/partners-peacemaking-how-united-states-and-europe-can-end-war-ukraine<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jasen J. 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Schuessler &amp; Miranda Priebe (January, 2025). <em>Here\u2019s Why Trump\u2019s Foreign Policy Is Hard to Pin Down.<\/em> RAND. https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/commentary\/2025\/01\/heres-why-trumps-foreign-policy-is-hard-to-pin-down.html<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mara Karlin (June, 2025). <em>Commentary: <\/em><em>America, Europe, and the shifting international order. <\/em>Brookings Institution. https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/america-europe-and-the-shifting-international-order<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Europe Was Left Without Solid Ground, Yet Seeks a Fair Balance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Editorial Staff (March, 2023). <em>Joint Statement by President Biden and President von der Leyen.<\/em> The White House. https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2023\/03\/10\/joint-statement-by-president-biden-and-president-von-der-leyen-2<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (October, 2023). <em>U.S.-EU Summit Joint Statement.<\/em> The White House. https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2023\/10\/20\/u-s-eu-summit-joint-statement\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (April, 2023). <em>Joint Statement on U.S.-EU Task Force on Energy Security.<\/em> The White House. https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2023\/04\/03\/joint-statement-on-u-s-eu-task-force-on-energy-security<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (July, 2024). <em>Fact Sheet: U.S. Contributions to NATO Deterrence and Defense. <\/em>The White House. https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2024\/07\/11\/fact-sheet-u-s-contributions-to-nato-deterrence-and-defense\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (July, 2024). <em>Washington Summit Declaration. <\/em>NATO. https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/uk\/natohq\/official_texts_227678.htm?selectedLocale=en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>James FitzGerald (February, 2023). <em>US will defend every inch of Nato territory \u2013 Biden.<\/em> BBC News. https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/live\/world-64726329<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Laura Kayali (March, 2025). <em>US Dominates European Weapons Purchases: Report.<\/em> Politico. https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/us-dominates-european-weapons-purchases-report\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alex Burilikov, Katelyn Bushnell &amp; others (June, 2025). <em>Fit for war by 2030? European rearmament efforts vis-\u00e0-vis Russia.<\/em> Bruegel. https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-06\/e880656a-f9f2-47d4-845c-136cea3e4b11-Kiel_Report_no3.pdf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Madison Faller, Matthew Landon &amp; Nataliia Lipikhina (February, 2025). <em>Brave New Europe? Redefining trade, defense, and power.<\/em> J.P.Morgan. https:\/\/privatebank.jpmorgan.com\/eur\/en\/insights\/markets-and-investing\/tmt\/brave-new-europe-redefining-trade-defense-and-power<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anthony Dworkin (June, 2021). <em>Americans before allies: Biden\u2019s limited multilateralism. <\/em>European Council on Foreign Relations. https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/article\/americans-before-allies-bidens-limited-multilateralism<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Guntram B. Wolff &amp; Uri Dabush (October, 2020). <em>What should Europe expect from American trade policy after the election? <\/em>Bruegel. https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/blog-post\/what-should-europe-expect-american-trade-policy-after-election<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Maria Demertzis (February, 2023). <em>The EU response to the United States Inflation Reduction Act. <\/em>Bruegel. https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/comment\/eu-response-united-states-inflation-reduction-act<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Asl\u0131 Ayd\u0131nta\u015fba\u015f, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj &amp; others (August, 2021). <em>The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe.<\/em> European Council on Foreign Relations. https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/publication\/the-fall-of-the-afghan-government-and-what-it-means-for-europe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Richard Higgott &amp; Simon Reich (2021). <em>Hedging by Default: The Limits of EU \u201cStrategic Autonomy\u201d in a Binary World Order. <\/em>LSE Ideas. https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/ideas\/Assets\/Documents\/reports\/LSE-IDEAS-Hedging-by-Default.pdf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Christina Ke\u00dfler (January, 2024). <em>Indo-Pacific Calling: Where is the US heading and what does it mean for Europe?<\/em> The Heinrich B\u00f6ll Foundation. https:\/\/www.boell.de\/en\/2024\/01\/24\/indo-pacific-calling-where-us-heading-and-what-does-it-mean-europe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ashley Townshend, Susannah Patton &amp; others (August, 2021). <em>Correcting the course: How the Biden administration should compete for influence in the Indo-Pacific.<\/em> USSC. https:\/\/www.ussc.edu.au\/correcting-the-course-how-the-biden-administration-should-compete-for-influence-in-the-indo-pacific<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brian Katulis (September, 2023). <em>Treading Cautiously on Shifting Sands: An Assessment of Biden\u2019s Middle East Policy Approach, 2021-2023.<\/em> MEI. https:\/\/mei.edu\/publications\/treading-cautiously-shifting-sands-assessment-bidens-middle-east-policy-approach-2021-2023<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nils Lukacs &amp; Corina Lozovan (2024). <em>America\u2019s 2024 Election and Europe\u2019s Middle East Dilemma.<\/em> GIGA. https:\/\/www.giga-hamburg.de\/en\/publications\/giga-focus\/america-s-2024-election-and-europe-s-middle-east-dilemma<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alicia Garc\u00eda-Herrero, Th\u00e9o Storella &amp; Jianwei Xu (July, 2025). <em>European companies operating in China: from digging in to rethinking their presence.<\/em> Bruegel. https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/working-paper\/european-companies-operating-china-digging-rethinking-their-presence<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Richard Youngs (February, 2025). <em>European Reactions to the U.S. Retreat From Democracy.<\/em> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/posts\/2025\/02\/european-reactions-to-the-us-retreat-from-democracy?lang=en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hannes Greve (2021). <em>Joe Biden and a New Era of Multilateralism.<\/em> GIGA. https:\/\/www.giga-hamburg.de\/en\/publications\/giga-focus\/joe-biden-and-a-new-era-of-multilateralism<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Giuseppe Spatafora (February, 2025). <em>The Trump card: What could US abandonment of Europe look like?<\/em> EUISS. https:\/\/www.iss.europa.eu\/publications\/briefs\/trump-card-what-could-us-abandonment-europe-look<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Johannes Greubel, Elizabeth Kuiper &amp; others (January, 2025). Trump\u2019s Returns: The Challenges Ahead for the EU. EPC. https:\/\/epc-web-s3.s3.amazonaws.com\/content\/US_Elections_Compendium_v4.pdf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Emma Ashford &amp; MacKenna Rawlins (July, 2024). <em>American Roulette: Scenarios for US Retrenchment and the Future of European Defense.<\/em> Stimson. https:\/\/www.stimson.org\/2024\/american-roulette-scenarios-for-us-retrenchment-and-the-future-of-european-defense<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stewart Patrick (March, 2025). <em>Trump Has Launched a Second American Revolution. This Time, It\u2019s Against the World. <\/em>Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/emissary\/2025\/03\/trump-foreign-policy-second-american-revolution-nato-un?lang=en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Micha\u0142 Oleksiejuk (April, 2025). <em>Sharing the burden: How Poland and Germany are shifting the dial on European defence expenditure. <\/em>NATO. https:\/\/www.nato.int\/docu\/review\/articles\/2025\/04\/14\/sharing-the-burden-how-poland-and-germany-are-shifting-the-dial-on-european-defence-expenditure\/index.html<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Camille Grand (July, 2024). <em>Defending Europe with less America.<\/em> ECFR. https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/publication\/defending-europe-with-less-america<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Guntram B. Wolff (May, 2024). <em>European Union debt to boost European air defence.<\/em> Bruegel. https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/first-glance\/european-union-debt-boost-european-air-defence<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rosa Balfour, Eugenia Baroncelli, Lizza Bomassi &amp; others (November, 2024). <em>Geopolitics and Economic Statecraft in the European Union.<\/em> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2024\/11\/geopolitics-and-economic-statecraft-in-the-european-union?lang=en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Juan Mejuno&#8211;L\u00f3pez &amp; Guntram B. Wolff (November, 2024). <em>A European defence industrial strategy in a hostile world.<\/em> Bruegel. https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/policy-brief\/european-defence-industrial-strategy-hostile-world<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ben Barry, Douglas Barrie, Henry Boyd &amp; others (May, 2025). <em>Defending Europe Without the United States: Costs and Consequences.<\/em> IISS. https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/globalassets\/media-library&#8212;content&#8211;migration\/files\/research-papers\/2025\/05\/defending-europe-without-the-united-states\/iiss_defending-europe-without-the-united-states_costs-and-consequences_052025.pdf<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Russia\u2019s Calculus Amid U.S. Foreign Policy Shifts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>John Tefft &amp; William Courtney (July, 2024). <em>At the NATO Summit, Containment Plus for Russia.<\/em> RAND. https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/commentary\/2024\/07\/at-the-nato-summit-containment-plus-for-russia.html<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Richard Youngs (July, 2022). <em>Autocracy Versus Democracy After the Ukraine Invasion: Mapping a Middle Way.<\/em> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2022\/07\/autocracy-versus-democracy-after-the-ukraine-invasion-mapping-a-middle-way?lang=en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jean-Dominique Merchet (October, 2022). <em>Ukraine: l\u2019Occident isol\u00e9 face \u00e0 la Russie? La preuve par l\u2019ONU.<\/em> L\u2019opinion. https:\/\/www.lopinion.fr\/international\/ukraine-loccident-isole-face-a-la-russie<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dmitriy Danilov (April, 2022). <em>\u0412 \u041d\u0410\u0422\u041e \u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0447\u0435\u0442 \u043d\u0430 \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0431\u0435\u0434\u0443. [NATO is Counting on Exhaustion and Victory].<\/em> Russian Council. https:\/\/russiancouncil.ru\/analytics-and-comments\/interview\/v-nato-delayut-raschet-na-istoshchenie-i-pobedu\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kathleen McInnis, Daniel P. Fata, Benjamin Jensen &amp; Jose M. Macias (February, 2024). <em>Pulling Their Weight: The Data on NATO Responsibility Sharing. <\/em>CSIS. https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/resrep58044?seq=1<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>William Chislett (April, 2025). <em>Spain under pressure to spend more on defence.<\/em> Real Instituto Elcano. https:\/\/www.realinstitutoelcano.org\/en\/commentaries\/spain-under-pressure-to-spend-more-on-defence<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Zhao Huasheng (March, 2025). <em>The New \u2018Reset\u2019 of US-Russia Relations and Its Possible Prospects.<\/em> Valdai Club. https:\/\/valdaiclub.com\/a\/highlights\/the-new-reset-of-us-russia-relations<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ivan Timofeev (November, 2024). <em>Russia-West: The Radical Scenario and Its Alternatives.<\/em> RIAC. https:\/\/russiancouncil.ru\/en\/analytics-and-comments\/analytics\/russia-west-the-radical-scenario-and-its-alternatives\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Camilla Pletuhina-Tonev (July, 2025). <em>NATO Unity: Some Assembly Required.<\/em> New America. https:\/\/www.newamerica.org\/future-frontlines\/blogs\/nato-unity-some-assembly-required\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Johannes Thimm (April, 2018). <em>NATO: US Strategic Dominance and Unequal Burden-Sharing Are Two Sides of the Same Coin.<\/em> SWP. https:\/\/www.swp-berlin.org\/publikation\/nato-us-strategic-dominance-and-unequal-burden-sharing-are-two-sides-of-the-same-coin<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Catherine Belton &amp; Robyn Dixon (July, 2025). <em>As Trump turns toward Ukraine, Russians wonder if an opportunity was missed.<\/em> The Washington Post. https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2025\/07\/15\/trump-russia-putin-war<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ivan Timofeev (August, 2025). <em>After Alaska. A New Stage in International Relations.<\/em> RIAC. https:\/\/russiancouncil.ru\/en\/analytics-and-comments\/analytics\/after-alaska-a-new-stage-in-international-relations<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dmitry Antonov (January, 2025). <em>Russia condemns Trump missile defence shield plan, accuses US of plotting to militarise space.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/russia-condemns-trump-missile-defence-shield-plan-accuses-us-plotting-militarise-2025-01-31<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (June, 2025). <em>Russia Analytical Report.<\/em> Harvard Kennedy School \u2013 Russia Matters. https:\/\/www.russiamatters.org\/news\/russia-analytical-report\/russia-analytical-report-june-23-30-2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mark Trevelyan (November, 2024). <em>Russia warns US against \u2018spiral of escalation\u2019 but says it will keep channels open. <\/em>Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/russia-warns-us-against-spiral-escalation-says-it-will-keep-channels-open-2024-11-27<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Exploiting Strategic Ambiguity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Editorial Staff (March, 2025). <em>US government revokes some access to satellite imagery for Ukraine.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us-aerospace-firm-maxar-disables-satellite-photos-ukraine-2025-03-07<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stepan Haftko (March, 2025). <em>Maxar restores access to commercial satellite imagery for Ukraine. <\/em>Ukrainska Pravda. https:\/\/www.pravda.com.ua\/eng\/news\/2025\/03\/12\/7502459<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (March, 2025). <em>How will US pause on intelligence sharing affect Ukraine?<\/em> AlJazeera. https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/3\/6\/how-will-us-pause-on-intelligence-sharing-affect-ukraine<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (March, 2025).<em> Operation Potok \u2013 Inside Story of (Failed) Russian Gas Pipeline Infiltration.<\/em> KyivPost. https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/4934<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (March, 2025). <em>Russia Finishes Issuing Passports in Occupied Ukrainian Regions, Putin Says.<\/em> The Moscow Times. https:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2025\/03\/05\/russia-finishes-issuing-passports-in-occupied-ukrainian-regions-putin-says-a88258<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (June, 2025). <em>\u2018A false semblance of choice\u2019 Putin\u2019s latest passportization deadline dials up the pressure on civilians in Ukraine\u2019s occupied territories. <\/em>Meduza. https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/feature\/2025\/06\/19\/a-false-semblance-of-choice<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Elina Beketova (May, 2025). <em>Behind the Lines: Russia Makes Ukrainians Foreigners in Their Own Country.<\/em> CEPA. https:\/\/cepa.org\/article\/behind-the-lines-russia-makes-ukrainians-foreigners-in-their-own-country<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kseniya Kvitka (March, 2025). <em>Get a Passport or Leave: Russia\u2019s Ultimatum to Ukrainians. New Decree Threatens Rights of Civilians in Russian-Occupied Areas. <\/em>HRW. https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/news\/2025\/03\/25\/get-passport-or-leave-russias-ultimatum-ukrainians<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (August, 2025). <em>Germany to fund $500m PURL package for Ukraine.<\/em> NATO. https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/news_237162.htm<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (September, 2025).<em> Russian forces attack power station in Kyiv region, Ukraine&#8217;s energy ministry says.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russian-forces-attack-power-station-kyiv-region-ukraines-energy-ministry-says-2025-09-08<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (September, 2025). <em>Russian attack on Ukraine&#8217;s Kirovohrad region cuts power, governor says.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russian-attack-ukraines-kirovohrad-region-cuts-power-governor-says-2025-09-17<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>China\u2019s Silent Gains<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Howard Wang &amp; Brett Zakheim (May, 2025). China\u2019s Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War: Perceived New Strategic Opportunities and an Emerging Model of Hybrid Warfare. RAND. https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_reports\/RRA3141-4.html<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (April, 2025). Ukraine bans China&#8217;s firms for helping Russia make missiles. Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/ukraine-hits-chinese-firms-with-sanctions-after-accusing-beijing-arming-russia-2025-04-18\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Luke Harding (February, 2023). <em>Zelenskiy open to China\u2019s peace plan but rejects compromise with \u2018sick\u2019 Putin. <\/em>The Guardian. https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/feb\/24\/zelenskiy-open-to-chinas-peace-plan-but-rejects-compromise-with-sick-putin<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jasper Ward (September, 2025). <em>Zelenskiy thinks Trump could help change Xi&#8217;s position on Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine. <\/em>Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/zelenskiy-thinks-trump-could-help-change-xis-position-russias-war-ukraine-2025-09-23\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (September, 2025). <em>US coercion over Ukraine crisis an attempt to shift responsibility, pursue own interests.<\/em> Global Times. https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202509\/1343588.shtml<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Christopher S. Chivvis &amp; Jack Keating (October, 2024). <em>Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America.<\/em> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/research\/2024\/10\/cooperation-between-china-iran-north-korea-and-russia-current-and-potential-future-threats-to-america?lang=en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (January, 2025). <em>China-Russia 2024 trade value hits record high &#8211; Chinese customs. <\/em>Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/china-russia-2024-trade-value-hits-record-high-chinese-customs-2025-01-13\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Filip Rudnik (May, 2025). <em>China-Russia trade: asymmetrical, yet indispensable.<\/em>&nbsp; MERICS. https:\/\/merics.org\/en\/comment\/china-russia-trade-asymmetrical-yet-indispensable<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Patricia M. Kim, Asli Kim,&nbsp; Asl\u0131 Ayd\u0131nta\u015fba\u015f,&nbsp; Asl\u0131 Ayd\u0131nta\u015fba\u015f, Angela Stent &amp; Tara Varma (December, 2024).<em> The China-Russia relationship and threats to vital US interests.<\/em> Brookings Institution https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/the-china-russia-relationship-and-threats-to-vital-us-interests\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Maciej Kalwasi\u0144ski (July, 2025). <em>China-Russia trade in early 2025: Fueling Moscow\u2019s war\u202fdespite headwinds.<\/em> OSW. https:\/\/www.osw.waw.pl\/en\/publikacje\/analyses\/2025-07-30\/china-russia-trade-early-2025-fueling-moscows-war-despite-headwinds<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (June, 2025). <em>China has become the most important enabler of Russia\u2019s war machine.<\/em> The Economist. https:\/\/www.economist.com\/china\/2025\/06\/19\/china-has-become-the-most-important-enabler-of-russias-war-machine<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (July, 2025). <em>China Assists Russia in Gunpowder Production for War against Ukraine.<\/em> RLI. https:\/\/lansinginstitute.org\/2025\/07\/14\/china-assists-russia-in-gunpowder-production-for-war-against-ukraine\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (September, 2025). <em>Russia in a multipolar world: equal player or junior partner to China?<\/em><em> <\/em>NEST Centre. https:\/\/nestcentre.org\/russia-in-a-multipolar-world\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anna Fratsyvir (May, 2025). <em>China \u0441uts drone sales to Ukraine, West but continues supplying Russia, Bloomberg reports.<\/em> Kyiv Independent. https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/china-suts-drone-sales-to-ukraine-west-but-continues-supplying-russia-bloomberg-reports\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kollen Post (August, 2025). <em>\u2018Little by little away from China\u2019 \u2013 Inside Ukraine\u2019s new mass-production of drone parts.<\/em> Kyiv Independent. https:\/\/kyivindependen2t.com\/little-by-little-away-from-china-ukraines-new-mass-production-of-drone-parts\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>David Hambling (April, 2025). <em>Ukraine Is Making FPV Drones Without Chinese Parts And At Lower Cost.<\/em> Forbes. https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/davidhambling\/2025\/04\/08\/ukraine-is-making-fpv-drones-without-chinese-parts-and-at-lower-cost\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kyrylo Kushnikov (March, 2025). <em>Ukraine Produces First Thousand Fully Domestic FPV Drones.<\/em> Militarnyi. https:\/\/militarnyi.com\/en\/news\/ukraine-produces-first-thousand-fully-domestic-fpv-drones\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pavel K. Baev, Robin Brooks, Jonathan A. Czin &amp; others (March, 2025). <em>Should China have a role in ending the war in Ukraine? <\/em>Brookings Institution. https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/rivals-and-responders-the-us-china-and-global-crisis-management\/<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ukraine: From Hopes of Victory to National Survival<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dr. Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk &amp; Nick Reynolds (July, 2024). <em>Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine\u2019s Offensive Operations, 2022\u201323. <\/em>RUSI. https:\/\/www.rusi.org\/explore-our-research\/publications\/special-resources\/preliminary-lessons-ukraines-offensive-operations-2022-23<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>William Courtney (January, 2025). <em>Ukraine Is Determined, but Tired.<\/em> RAND. https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/commentary\/2025\/01\/ukraine-is-determined-but-tired.html<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (November, 2024). <em>Zelensky unveils \u2018resilience plan\u2019: \u2018We will not give up our rights to our territory\u2019.<\/em> Ukrinform. https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-polytics\/3928784-zelensky-unveils-resilience-plan-we-will-not-give-up-our-rights-to-our-territory.html<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Olena Harmash (November, 2024). <em>Ukraine passes 2025 budget with record defence spending.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/ukraines-parliament-approves-2025-budget-boosts-funds-defence-efforts-lawmaker-2024-11-19\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (September, 2025). Zelenskiy says nearly 60% of Ukrainian arms home-produced. Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/zelenskiy-says-nearly-60-ukrainian-arms-home-produced-2025-09-06\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (February, 2025). <em>Explainer: What weapons can Ukraine produce and where does it need help?<\/em> BBC. https:\/\/monitoring.bbc.co.uk\/product\/b0003eae<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Julia Struck (July, 2025). <em>Ukraine\u2019s Drone Output Soars 900%, Producing 200K UAVs a Month.<\/em> Kyiv Post. https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/55897<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (March, 2025). <em>Ukraine to sharply raise purchases of home produced FPV drones in 2025.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/ukraine-sharply-raise-purchases-home-produced-fpv-drones-2025-2025-03-10\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vladyslav Smilianets &amp; Max Hunder (December, 2024). <em>Ukraine shows off new \u2018rocket-drone\u2019 in bid to boost long-range strikes.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/ukraine-shows-off-new-rocket-drone-bid-boost-long-range-strikes-2024-12-06\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Johanna Urbancik (August, 2025). <em>Will Ukraine\u2019s new long-range Flamingo cruise missile put Russia on red alert?<\/em> EuroNews. https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/next\/2025\/08\/26\/flamingo-will-ukraines-new-wonder-weapon-replace-the-taurus<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (August 14, 2025). <em>Zelenskiy says Ukraine has secured $1.5 billion from European allies for US weapons.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-has-secured-15-billion-european-allies-us-weapons-2025-08-14\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mark F. Cancian &amp; Chris H. Park (July, 2025). <em>The Trump Administration Boosts Immediate Military Aid Deliveries to Ukraine. <\/em>CSIS. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/trump-administration-boosts-immediate-military-aid-deliveries-ukraine<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (March, 2025). <em>US government revokes some access to satellite imagery for Ukraine.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us-aerospace-firm-maxar-disables-satellite-photos-ukraine-2025-03-07\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alex Horton &amp; Siobh\u00e1n O&#8217;Grady (March, 2025). <em>U.S. suspends commercial satellite imagery service to Ukraine. <\/em>The Washington Post. https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2025\/03\/07\/maxar-ukraine-sateliite-imagery\/&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (April, 2025). <em>Commission invests \u20ac910 million to boost European defence and close capability gaps.<\/em> European Commission. https:\/\/enlargement.ec.europa.eu\/news\/commission-invests-eu910-million-boost-european-defence-and-close-capability-gaps-2025-04-30_en<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rudy Ruitenberg (May, 2025). European Defence Fund funnels money to drones, hypersonic defense, AI. DefenseNews. https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/global\/europe\/2025\/05\/01\/european-defence-fund-funnels-money-to-drones-hypersonic-defense-ai\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dr. Jack Watling &amp; Darya Dolzikova (August, 2024). <em>Fighting for the Light: Protecting Ukraine\u2019s Energy System.<\/em> RUSI. https:\/\/www.rusi.org\/explore-our-research\/publications\/commentary\/fighting-light-protecting-ukraines-energy-system<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dan Black (July, 2024). <em>Russia\u2019s Cyber Campaign Shifts to Ukraine\u2019s Frontlines.<\/em> RUSI. https:\/\/www.rusi.org\/explore-our-research\/publications\/commentary\/russias-cyber-campaign-shifts-ukraines-frontlines&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Christoph Winkler, Kristina Dabrock, Serhiy Kapustyan, Craig Hart &amp; others (2024). High-Resolution Rooftop-PV Potential Assessment for a Resilient Energy System in Ukraine. IEA. https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/empowering-ukraine-through-a-decentralised-electricity-system<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Romina Bandura &amp; Alexander Romanishyn (July, 2025). <em>Striving for Access, Security, and Sustainability: Ukraine\u2019s Transition to a Modern and Decentralized Energy System. <\/em>CSIS. https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/striving-access-security-and-sustainability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (June, 2024). <em>Actions to Support Ukraine\u2019s Economic Recovery.<\/em> U.S. Embassy in Poland. https:\/\/pl.usembassy.gov\/actions-to-support-ukraines-economic-recovery\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (June, 2025). Ukraine: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Ukraine. IMF. https:\/\/www.elibrary.imf.org\/view\/journals\/002\/2025\/156\/article-A001-en.xml<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (February, 2025). <em>Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment Released. <\/em>World Bank Group. https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/news\/press-release\/2025\/02\/25\/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nick Brown &amp; Emily McCabe (January, 2025). <em>U.S. Direct Financial Support for Ukraine.<\/em> Congress GOV. https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/crs-product\/IF12305<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yuliia Dysa (September, 2025). <em>Ukraine, US launch fund for critical minerals projects with $150 million investment.<\/em> Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/ukraine-us-launch-fund-critical-minerals-projects-with-150-million-investment-2025-09-17<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (August, 2025). <em>On Ukraine\u2019s front lines the kill zone is getting deeper.<\/em> The Economist. https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2025\/08\/04\/on-ukraines-front-lines-the-kill-zone-is-getting-deeper&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Max Hunder, Sabine Siebold &amp; Manuel Ausloos (July, 2025). <em>Enter the kill zone: Ukraine&#8217;s drone-infested front slows Russian advance. <\/em>Reuters. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/aerospace-defense\/enter-kill-zone-ukraines-drone-infested-front-slows-russian-advance-2025-07-17\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bohdan Babaiev (September, 2025). <em>Ukraine plans a 30-kilometer Kill Zone to trap Russian forces.<\/em> RBC. https:\/\/newsukraine.rbc.ua\/news\/ukraine-plans-30-kilometer-kill-zone-to-trap-1757794534.html<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oleksandr Kunytskyi (February, 2025). <em>\u0412\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043d\u0438\u043a \u0440\u0430\u043a\u0435\u0442 \u041f\u041f\u041e NASAMS \u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0430\u043d\u0456\u044e \u0432 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456 [NASAMS air defense missile manufacturer to establish a company in Ukraine].<\/em> DW. https:\/\/www.dw.com\/uk\/virobnik-raket-ppo-nasams-stvorit-kompaniu-v-ukraini\/a-71783042<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lara Finke (May, 2025). <em>Pistorius sagt Ukraine-Unterst\u00fctzung in H\u00f6he von rund f\u00fcnf Milliarden Euro zu [Pistorius pledges around five billion euros in support for Ukraine].<\/em> Bundesministerium der Verteidigun. https:\/\/www.bmvg.de\/de\/aktuelles\/pistorius-ukraine-unterstuetzung-rund-fuenf-milliarden-euro-5949746<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inder Singh Bisht (March, 2025). <em>Kongsberg to Produce NASAMS Air Defense Missiles in Ukraine.<\/em> The Defense Post. https:\/\/thedefensepost.com\/2025\/03\/03\/kongsberg-nasams-air-defense\/<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (August, 2025). <em>Analysis: Ukraine develops indigenous air defense systems to reduce reliance on foreign military aid.<\/em> Army Recognition Group. https:\/\/armyrecognition.com\/news\/army-news\/2025\/analysis-ukraine-develops-indigenous-air-defense-systems-to-reduce-reliance-on-foreign-military-aid<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (August, 2025). <em>Ukraine Is Working To Develop Its Own Air Defense Systems.<\/em> TWZ.<em> <\/em>https:\/\/www.twz.com\/news-features\/ukraine-is-working-to-develop-its-own-air-defense-systems<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sin\u00e9ad Baker&nbsp; (September, 2025). <em>Ukraine is starting to move weapons production into NATO, where Russia&#8217;s missiles can&#8217;t reach it without risking all-out war. <\/em>Business Insider. https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/ukraine-starting-produce-nato-state-away-from-russia-attacks-2025-9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Editorial Staff (June, 2025). <em>Ukraine\u2019s 2025 Build with Ukraine Program Boosts Military Tech Exports and Production.<\/em> Mezha. https:\/\/mezha.net\/eng\/bukvy\/ukraine-s-2025-build-with-ukraine-program-boosts-military-tech-exports-and-production\/<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This publication was compiled with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It\u2019s content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Executive Summary The Russo-Ukrainian war has transitioned into a prolonged, attritional contest where staying power\u2013air defense, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) continuity, munitions, energy resilience, and industrial output \u2013 matters more than any single diplomatic or combat breakthrough. A sharp U.S. policy shift\u2013from alliance-centric predictability to a more conditional, transactional approach \u2014 is forcing Europe [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":33048,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,74],"tags":[],"topic":[85,84,86,95,92],"class_list":["post-32903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports-handbooks","category-eng-reports-us-ukraine-partnership-program","topic-china","topic-russia","topic-ukraine","topic-usa","topic-war"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine&#039;s Long War: Changing Strategies and Great Power Competition - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ukraine\u2019s war has become a test of endurance\u2014reshaping U.S. policy, Europe\u2019s defense, Russia\u2019s tactics, and China\u2019s leverage in a prolonged conflict.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/es\/2025\/11\/07\/ukraines-long-war-changing-strategies-and-great-power-competition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine&#039;s Long War: Changing Strategies and Great Power Competition\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. 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