{"id":29249,"date":"2025-05-14T17:33:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T14:33:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=29249"},"modified":"2025-08-05T20:54:15","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T17:54:15","slug":"tdc-presents-research-on-russias-role-in-the-post-war-world-order-at-the-event","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/es\/2025\/05\/14\/tdc-presents-research-on-russias-role-in-the-post-war-world-order-at-the-event\/","title":{"rendered":"TDC Presenta una Investigaci\u00f3n sobre \u201cEl Papel de Rusia en el Orden Mundial de Posguerra\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

El 13 de mayo de 2025, el Centro de Di\u00e1logo Transatl\u00e1ntico present\u00f3 con orgullo las principales conclusiones de su investigaci\u00f3n titulada \"El Papel de Rusia en el Orden Mundial de Posguerra.<\/strong>\" Esta presentaci\u00f3n enmarc\u00f3 un debate fundamental con distinguidos expertos sobre los complejos desaf\u00edos y dilemas estrat\u00e9gicos que plantea Rusia en un panorama global en evoluci\u00f3n. Nuestra investigaci\u00f3n analiz\u00f3 c\u00f3mo podr\u00eda configurarse una Rusia posterior a la guerra y de qu\u00e9 manera deber\u00edan prepararse Ucrania y Occidente. Las conclusiones, presentadas por la Directora de Investigaci\u00f3n del TDC, Daryna Sydorenko, indican que una Rusia postb\u00e9lica est\u00e1 encaminada a mantener una actitud agresiva, independientemente de los resultados en el campo de batalla, debido a su ideolog\u00eda profundamente arraigada, al fomento del nacionalismo agresivo y a la falta de voluntad de su sociedad para llegar a compromisos. Adem\u00e1s, la econom\u00eda militarizada de Rusia alimenta esta agresividad, lo que hace que la aplicaci\u00f3n continua y estricta de sanciones sea esencial. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tras la presentaci\u00f3n de nuestras conclusiones principales, nuestros distinguidos panelistas compartieron sus perspectivas en profundidad:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Dra. Maria Doma\u0144ska, Investigadora Principal del Centro de Estudios Orientales (OSW) con sede en Varsovia:<\/strong> La Dra. Doma\u0144ska sostuvo que, bajo el putinismo, la guerra se ha convertido tr\u00e1gicamente en una \"condici\u00f3n natural del Estado ruso,\" sirviendo como herramienta para garantizar la legitimidad pol\u00edtica interna de un r\u00e9gimen incapaz de generar un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico sostenible. Destac\u00f3 que Putin se ha convertido en reh\u00e9n de la guerra, al haber invertido demasiado en la idea de una victoria final rusa. Realiz\u00f3 una comparaci\u00f3n impactante al afirmar que la Rusia contempor\u00e1nea se asemeja m\u00e1s a la Alemania nazi que a la Uni\u00f3n Sovi\u00e9tica, debido a su revanchismo, militarismo y la ausencia de una \"vacuna contra la guerra\" en la conciencia p\u00fablica. A diferencia de la Uni\u00f3n Sovi\u00e9tica, Rusia es una dictadura personalista sin contrapesos institucionales frente a la voluntad arbitraria del l\u00edder. La Dra. Doma\u0144ska concluy\u00f3 que Rusia seguir\u00e1 siendo una amenaza existencial para Europa mientras contin\u00fae siendo autoritaria e imperial, y que cualquier futura normalizaci\u00f3n de las relaciones con Occidente debe estar condicionada no solo al respeto de la integridad territorial de Ucrania y al pago de reparaciones, sino tambi\u00e9n \u2014 de forma cr\u00edtica \u2014 a una liberalizaci\u00f3n interna en Rusia, que incluya la liberaci\u00f3n de presos pol\u00edticos y la celebraci\u00f3n de elecciones competitivas. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Juraj Majcin, Analista de Pol\u00edticas en el Centro de Pol\u00edtica Europea en Bruselas:<\/strong> El Sr. Majcin reconoci\u00f3 que en Bruselas crece la conciencia de que Rusia seguir\u00e1 siendo una amenaza existencial para Europa. No obstante, advirti\u00f3 que el enfoque actual de Europa suele ser demasiado reactivo y abog\u00f3 por una estrategia m\u00e1s proactiva basada en la contenci\u00f3n de Rusia. Una parte fundamental de esta estrategia, seg\u00fan Majcin, debe ser una disuasi\u00f3n firme, aunque se\u00f1al\u00f3 el reto que supone el hecho de que la econom\u00eda de guerra rusa est\u00e1 superando a Occidente en la producci\u00f3n de cierto equipamiento militar. Subray\u00f3 la importancia de apoyar a pa\u00edses socios de la UE como Moldavia y Georgia, y de garantizar que la democracia prospere en Ucrania. Majcin tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1al\u00f3 que las distintas percepciones de amenaza en Europa constituyen un desaf\u00edo clave, y destac\u00f3 la necesidad de reconciliar estas visiones y convencer a los ciudadanos de la necesidad de realizar sacrificios en aras de la seguridad colectiva, inspir\u00e1ndose, quiz\u00e1s, en los modelos n\u00f3rdicos de implicaci\u00f3n social. Asimismo, abord\u00f3 las complejidades del proceso de toma de decisiones en la UE, como la dificultad de alcanzar unidad en materia de sanciones cuando algunos Estados miembros act\u00faan como \"caballos de Troya\".  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael DiCianna, Investigador Asociado del Centro de Estudios del Intermarium en el Institute of World Politics:<\/strong> El Sr. DiCianna ofreci\u00f3 una perspectiva estadounidense, se\u00f1alando que el esfuerzo por normalizar las relaciones con Rusia ha sido un tema recurrente en m\u00faltiples administraciones estadounidenses, incluida la primera presidencia de Trump. Sugiri\u00f3 que hay indicios de que Donald Trump est\u00e1 comenzando a darse cuenta de que el Putin de 2025 no es el mismo l\u00edder con el que interactu\u00f3 anteriormente. El Sr. DiCianna destac\u00f3 que la administraci\u00f3n Trump tiende a ver el poder estadounidense y las alianzas, incluida la OTAN, principalmente desde una perspectiva econ\u00f3mica y comercial, m\u00e1s que en t\u00e9rminos puramente militares y estrat\u00e9gicos. Las cr\u00edticas a los miembros de la OTAN a menudo se derivan del incumplimiento de los objetivos de gasto en defensa, que se consideran un asunto econ\u00f3mico. Expres\u00f3 su preocupaci\u00f3n de que la disuasi\u00f3n convencional podr\u00eda estar fracasando frente a Rusia, ya que Mosc\u00fa podr\u00eda percibirse a s\u00ed misma como ya estando en guerra con la OTAN, no solo con Ucrania. El Sr. DiCianna argument\u00f3 que Rusia podr\u00eda haber superado el punto en el que una demostraci\u00f3n de fuerza tenga efecto disuasivo si percibe fisuras en la determinaci\u00f3n de Occidente, lo que podr\u00eda llevarla a \"lanzar los dados de hierro\" y poner a prueba a la OTAN. Hizo un llamado a ir m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del simple discurso sobre la disuasi\u00f3n y a desarrollar planes de guerra m\u00e1s serios, instando a las democracias liberales occidentales a reconocer a Rusia no solo como un adversario o competidor, sino como un \"enemigo\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expresamos nuestro m\u00e1s sincero agradecimiento a nuestros distinguidos ponentes por sus valiosos aportes y a nuestra audiencia comprometida por sus preguntas reflexivas. Esta conversaci\u00f3n ha puesto de manifiesto la necesidad vital de mantener un di\u00e1logo continuo, una preparaci\u00f3n s\u00f3lida y estrategias claras para afrontar con realismo las complejidades del orden mundial posterior a la guerra.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 13 May 2025, the Transatlantic Dialogue Center proudly presented its key research findings on “Russia\u2019s Role in the Post-War World Order.” This presentation framed a vital discussion with distinguished experts on the complex challenges and strategic dilemmas posed by Russia in the evolving global landscape. Our research delved into what a post-war Russia might […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":29252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,103,102],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-29249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-eu-ukraine-partnership-program-events","category-eng-us-ukraine-partnership-program-events"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"\nTDC Presents Research on "Russia\u2019s Role in the Post-War World Order" at the Event - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. 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