{"id":2460,"date":"2022-03-28T19:35:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-28T16:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=2460"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:50:57","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:50:57","slug":"the-korean-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/es\/2022\/03\/28\/the-korean-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"El \u00abescenario coreano\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0_sl3Orla-jUIFuyC6-18x12.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tras sufrir una derrota t\u00e1ctica completa en Ucrania, Rusia se ve obligada a reconsiderar sus pr\u00f3ximas acciones en el frente. Al no lograr ocupar r\u00e1pidamente ciudades ucranianas clave, como pretend\u00eda inicialmente, las tropas rusas refuerzan su presencia en los territorios que ocupan. Contrariamente a las palabras anteriores de Putin de que \u00abRusia no planea apoderarse del territorio de Ucrania\u00bb, las acciones de las tropas rusas constituyen una ocupaci\u00f3n cl\u00e1sica, con la integraci\u00f3n gradual de los territorios ocupados en la Federaci\u00f3n de Rusia en los \u00e1mbitos econ\u00f3mico, pol\u00edtico y demogr\u00e1fico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Rusia se encuentra bajo una presi\u00f3n pol\u00edtica y econ\u00f3mica sin precedentes; su ej\u00e9rcito est\u00e1 mal equipado y no cuenta con una capacidad real de movimiento terrestre. En estas circunstancias, el Kremlin puede abandonar los planes de seguir apoder\u00e1ndose de Ucrania, pero intentar\u00eda consolidar los territorios ya capturados.<br>Putin puede intentar unir los territorios ocupados de las regiones de Jers\u00f3n y Zaporiyia con el territorio de las llamadas rep\u00fablicas L\/RPD. Ser\u00eda una especie de prototipo del \u00abescenario coreano\u00bb para dividir artificialmente Ucrania. En teor\u00eda, supondr\u00eda consolidar territorios controlados de facto por Rusia y obtener una pausa t\u00e1ctica antes de una nueva ofensiva. A gran escala, es imposible llevar a la pr\u00e1ctica ese proyecto. Los ocupantes se enfrentan al rechazo y la resistencia absolutos de los residentes locales. Adem\u00e1s, desde el punto de vista sociopol\u00edtico, unir Jers\u00f3n con las L\/RPD es una pura utop\u00eda. Adem\u00e1s de enormes p\u00e9rdidas financieras, Rusia se encontrar\u00e1 con una resistencia partisana en la retaguardia y quedar\u00e1 empantanada en una guerra asim\u00e9trica, donde la parte del conflicto con m\u00e1s recursos tiene pocas posibilidades de ganar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>El \u00abescenario coreano\u00bb tambi\u00e9n es irrealista porque los territorios ucranianos actualmente controlados por Rusia son peque\u00f1os fragmentos dispersos a lo largo de una l\u00ednea de frente de 1.800 kil\u00f3metros. A menudo son solo carreteras por las que se desplazan ca\u00f3ticamente los convoyes rusos y cuyas fronteras cambian constantemente debido a las hostilidades. Por ello, el concepto de dividir Ucrania mediante la toma de las regiones meridionales y orientales es t\u00e9cnicamente imposible. Rusia controla zonas relativamente peque\u00f1as en el norte, el este y el sur de Ucrania. Por el momento, es f\u00edsicamente imposible unirlas.<br>Rusia est\u00e1 al borde de una suspensi\u00f3n de pagos inminente. Cualquier territorio adicional dentro de su composici\u00f3n supone una carga financiera y econ\u00f3mica. Ya se habla de una posible congelaci\u00f3n de los dep\u00f3sitos bancarios de los rusos. Subvencionar a Ucrania ser\u00eda una medida extremadamente impopular y gravosa para el tesoro ruso.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Having suffered a complete tactical defeat in Ukraine, Russia is forced to reconsider its further actions at the front. Having failed to quickly occupy key Ukrainian cities, as originally intended, Russian troops are strengthening their presence in the territories they occupy. Contrary to Putin\u2019s earlier words that \u201cRussia does not plan to seize the territory [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,31],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-2460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Russia\u2019s \u201cKorean Scenario\u201d for Ukraine | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Having failed to quickly occupy key Ukrainian cities, as originally intended, Russian troops are strengthening their presence in the territories they occupy.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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