{"id":5606,"date":"2022-07-07T15:52:12","date_gmt":"2022-07-07T12:52:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=5606"},"modified":"2025-08-05T16:59:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T13:59:35","slug":"tdc-visiting-fellow-frank-ledwidge-ukraine-is-losing-this-war-at-the-moment-the-west-needs-to-massively-step-up-its-military-aid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/de\/2022\/07\/07\/tdc-visiting-fellow-frank-ledwidge-ukraine-is-losing-this-war-at-the-moment-the-west-needs-to-massively-step-up-its-military-aid\/","title":{"rendered":"TDC Visiting Fellow Frank Ledwidge: Die Ukraine verliert diesen Krieg im Moment. Der Westen muss seine Milit\u00e4rhilfe massiv aufstocken"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Below is the text of Frenk Ledwidge, TDC Visiting Fellow for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a few weeks I\u2019ve been in Kyiv, partly as a visiting fellow at leading Ukrainian thinktank the Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/a>. Kyiv is an astonishingly elegant and beautiful city; a premier league European capital. The regular air raid warnings delivered on your phone, as well as by the baleful second world war-style sirens, are largely ignored now \u2013 despite the occasional missile strike<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cafes and restaurants are open and largely busy. It was in one of the latter that I met a senior Ukrainian government official who had contacted me, expressing approval for something I had said in the international media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou know, don\u2019t you, that this time next year, a Russian soldier could be sitting right where you are,\u201d he said after a brusque introduction. \u201cWe are losing this war.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is right. There were the great victories at Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkhiv. But with setbacks in Donetsk and Luhansk<\/a>, the appalling realisation is sinking in that this is likely to be a very bloody war, lasting years. The country\u2019s coastline<\/a> is in the invaders\u2019 hands and its ports<\/a> are blockaded. A serious economic crisis is looming<\/a> both in Ukraine and more widely<\/a>. While Ukraine is not winning, it is losing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week\u2019s Nato summit<\/a> stated that it would assist member states \u201cadequately<\/a>\u201d in providing support to Ukraine, while recognising each member\u2019s \u201cspecific situation\u201d \u2013 presumably the specific situation of some countries being unwilling to contribute usefully to the defence of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assistance in the form of weaponry is still carefully enumerated, itemised and counted<\/a> \u2013 doing Russian intelligence officers\u2019 jobs for them, by giving them often precise information as to the numbers and capabilities of the weapons provided by donors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All that notwithstanding, western weapons have helped Ukraine hold the line, and are likely to continue to do so. They will, however, be unable to impose strategically meaningful costs on Russia\u2019s leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 20,000 and 30,000 soldiers killed and one-third of Russia\u2019s tank force<\/a> turned into scrap are meaningless irrelevancies to Vladimir Putin. Generals fired<\/a> or killed<\/a>? Plenty more where they came from. The original Russian objective<\/a> of neutralising Ukraine as a viable state is being achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategic objectives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For Ukraine, as for Russia, the key strategic front is in the south. Retaking Kherson<\/a> \u2013 the ancient city on the Black Sea coast that Russia seems to be planning to annex<\/a> as part of its scheme to \u201creturn Russian land<\/a>\u201d \u2013 would be a real blow to the Kremlin. Ukrainian forces entering Crimea, a short tank ride from Kherson, would send the message: \u201cThis is what strategic defeat looks like.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
A hydro-electric plant in the Kherson area. Retaking this region is a key objective for Ukraine. EPA-EFE\/Sergei Ilnitsky<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So to attempt this would make sense both militarily and politically. But Ukraine\u2019s problem, as matters stand, is that it lacks the combat power<\/a> to be certain of success. The trend of weapons supply is nowhere near what will be required to ensure the recovery of Ukrainian lands<\/a> and a consequent end to this war \u2013 by negotiation, or decision of arms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some weeks ago, the US stated as its aim<\/a> that Russia is \u201cweakened to the degree it can\u2019t do the kind of things it has done in invading Ukraine\u201d. That is all very well, but the problem is the means by which the west has chosen to achieve this \u2013 long-term attrition, rather than decisive defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wanted: greater firepower<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

What the west calls its \u201carsenal of democracy\u201d is open<\/a> \u2013 but barely. Serious doubt hangs over whether the US is serious about its war aims. The question is: does the US want Ukrainians to win, or does it want them to bleed for years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the former, arrangements need to be made very soon to release the thousands of M1 Abrams tanks<\/a>, Bradley armoured fighting vehicles<\/a>, artillery, attack helicopters<\/a> and other systems \u2013 much of which are currently in storage rather than in service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Ukrainian
Help wanted: the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is untiring in his requests for western military assistance. EPA-EFE\/Sergey Dolzhenko<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

No units of the US armed forces need to be depleted. All of this equipment was, by the way, specifically designed to destroy the equipment the Russians now deploy. Biden\u2019s pledge to \u201cstick with Ukraine as long as it takes<\/a>\u201d has something of a double-edged feel. Without a step change in the delivery of weapons, \u201cas long as it takes\u201d \u2013 a phrase we\u2019ve heard before from western leaders concerning Iraq<\/a> und Afghanistan<\/a> \u2013 might indicate a very long time indeed. There is of course, sadly, the possibility of western boredom with a long war<\/a> setting in first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preparations must begin for a move from drip-feeding weapon systems in single figures towards numbers in the hundreds<\/a>. Ukraine also requires an extensive and systematic regime to form and train brigades capable of imposing that really heavy strategic cost upon Putin. No such system of mass \u201ctraining-and-equipping\u201d seems to be planned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in Kyiv, a colleague\u2019s partner Sergiy (until February in product design) was deployed to the Donetsk region two weeks ago. He now lives in a bunker near the frontline. His group is armed with ancient Soviet gear, and ammunition for their weapons is running out<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since deployment, two of Sergiy\u2019s unit have been killed. As matters stand, at best he will be doing these deployments for years as the rest of the world becomes bored, Nato bolsters its borders<\/a>, and the west provides a trickle of weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1941, Nazi officers enjoyed their leave passes in Paris \u2013 but not London \u2013 as Winston Churchill spoke the words: \u201cGive us the tools and we\u2019ll finish the job<\/a>.\u201d Like those Germans, Russian officers could yet enjoy Ukraine\u2019s beautiful capital. All that is stopping them are Ukrainian soldiers and their still mostly outdated tools.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Below is the text of Frenk Ledwidge, TDC Visiting Fellow for The Conversation. For a few weeks I\u2019ve been in Kyiv, partly as a visiting fellow at leading Ukrainian thinktank the Transatlantic Dialogue Center. Kyiv is an astonishingly elegant and beautiful city; a premier league European capital. The regular air raid warnings delivered on your phone, […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,103,102,29,107],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-5606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-eu-ukraine-partnership-program-events","category-eng-us-ukraine-partnership-program-events","category-media","category-eu-ukraine-partnership-program-media"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"\nTDC Visiting Fellow Frank Ledwidge: Ukraine is losing this war at the moment. 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