{"id":5002,"date":"2022-05-19T17:42:17","date_gmt":"2022-05-19T14:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=5002"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:43:26","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T11:43:26","slug":"destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/de\/2022\/05\/19\/destabilization-of-transnistria-a-prelude-to-the-destabilization-of-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Destabilisierung Transnistriens: Ein Vorspiel zur Destabilisierung Europas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the first refugees started fleeing from Transnistria. Short after these events, Moldovan President M. Sandu held a meeting of the Security Council. On May 1, the British newspaper The Times published an article stating that the Kremlin had decided to invade Moldova, from where it would try to open a new front against Ukraine, in particular, aimed from the west at Odesa and the Odesa region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.rferl.org\/44675F79-0DD7-4668-92D0-2549C10D0D8E_cx0_cy1_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u0421\u0432\u044f\u0442\u043a\u0443\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0414\u043d\u044f \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0438 \u0432 \u0422\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0456. \u041f\u0440\u0438\u0434\u043d\u0456\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0432'\u044f 9 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u044f 2014 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0443\"\/><figcaption><em>Feier des Tags des Sieges in Tiraspol. Transnistrien, 9. Mai 2014.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meaning: the events in Transnistria are developing according to the typical &#8220;Donetsk&#8221; scenario when an external threat was artificially created, an evacuation was announced, and then mobilization in the &#8220;L\/DNR&#8221;, which ended with a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>military capabilities of the PMR and L\/DNR are incomparable but Russia is trying to create an additional threat to Ukraine, and as a possible option &#8211; an irritant provoking the response of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;<\/li><li>eine weitere Botschaft an M. Sandu \u00fcber die Unerw\u00fcnschtheit von Treibstofflieferungen in die Ukraine durch das Gebiet Moldaus. Andernfalls wird sie den Krieg im eigenen Land haben;<\/li><li>the traditional parade on May 9 in Transnistria has been cancelled. Given the extreme ideological saturation of the republic, this is a very serious step. Together with the need for &#8220;some kind of victory&#8221; for Putin, this &#8220;victory&#8221; may be the PMR;<\/li><li>im Falle einer Destabilisierung Moldaus wird M. Sandu Russland nicht widerstehen k\u00f6nnen, insbesondere bei hochpr\u00e4zisen Angriffen: Sie wird gezwungen sein, sich entweder zu ergeben oder Hilfe bei Drittl\u00e4ndern zu suchen;<\/li><li>wenn die Ukraine eingreift, wird Russland die M\u00f6glichkeit haben, seinen Druck auf dem Schlachtfeld zu erh\u00f6hen. Im \u00e4u\u00dfersten Fall kann es Kyjiw offiziell den Krieg erkl\u00e4ren;<\/li><li>if Romania intervenes, this would constitute a precedent at a higher level &#8211; the NATO level. Romania alone will not oppose Russia and NATO will have to consider whether to go to war with Russia for the sake of Moldova;<\/li><li>die westlichen Medien berichten zunehmend, dass Putin bereits die Entscheidung getroffen hat, Moldau milit\u00e4risch zu erobern. Den russischen Truppen ist es nicht gelungen, durch die Ukraine einen Landkorridor nach Transnistrien zu schaffen; daher w\u00e4re ein Angriff auf einen schwachen Staat mit einer nur formal bestehenden Armee eine einfachere L\u00f6sung, als sich in schweren, blutigen K\u00e4mpfen einen solchen Korridor zu bahnen;<\/li><li>nach der Besetzung Moldaus wird Russland seine Mobilisierungsf\u00e4higkeiten ausbauen und eine gewisse Menge an Waffen erhalten. Russland mangelt es katastrophal an tats\u00e4chlich kampff\u00e4higen Soldaten, die es bei jeder Gelegenheit anzuwerben versucht, selbst durch die Eroberung asymmetrisch schwacher L\u00e4nder.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia is raising the complexity of challenges and is trying to create additional hotbeds of possible war near the borders of NATO and the EU. The next epicentre may be the Balkans. Serbia is already at the centre of attention. Most importantly, the Kremlin has proved that a fairly simple method of &#8220;portraying the aggressor as the victim&#8221;, which was introduced by Hitler, is also applicable in our time. At the macro level, Russia is trying to destabilize Europe and the collective West. At the micro level, it is generating additional threats to Ukraine, creating, among other things, preconditions for a more massive invasion of southern Ukraine, formation of a land corridor to Transnistria with the potential occupation of Moldova if the West completely fails to act.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On April 25-26, there were several terrorist attacks in the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. In particular, the MGB building in Tiraspol was shelled with grenade launchers. A day later, explosions were heard in the city. The government of the &#8220;republic&#8221; made it quite clear that Ukraine and Moldova were to blame. On April 26, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,31],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-5002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en-analyses","category-ger-analyses"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Transnistria\u2019s Destabilization Risk for Europe | TDC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This analysis examines the April 2022 attacks in Transnistria and the risk that instability there could widen Russia\u2019s war beyond Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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