Vladimir Putin has driven Republicans and Democrats into one another\u2019s arms<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With the Democratic agenda stalled, members of Congress are making the best of what\u2019s around,taking bipartisan action on several key issues. Perhaps their most pressing concern at the moment is something worlds away from petty domestic debates that closed out the calendar year: taking action to deter Russia from launching an invasion of Ukraine. Senators on both sides of the aisle are largely in agreement that time is of the essence, though there\u2019s still disagreement as to the best way to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to back down from his saber-rattling threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Sunday, Senator Bob Menendez, the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, joined the Republican ranking member Senator Jim Risch in a joint CNN interview<\/a> to report that lawmakers were on the \u201cone-yard line\u201d of negotiations for the \u201cmother of all sanctions\u201d\u2014some of which would follow \u201clater on\u201d if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to invade Ukraine; some of which \u201cwould come up front for what has been done already.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe devastating sanctions that ultimately would crush Russia\u2019s economy, and the continuing lethal aid\u201d\u2014Washington\u2019s popular new euphemism for weapons<\/a>\u2014<\/strong>\u201cthat we are going to send, means Putin has to decide how many body bags of Russian sons are going to return to Russia,\u201d Menendez said. Risch added that if Russia invaded Ukraine, there would be sanctions to cripple Russian oil production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Any sanctions that Congress imposes could complement action taken directly by the Biden administration. Biden told reporters on Monday that the United States is continuing to engage in \u201cnonstop diplomacy,\u201d but \u201cwe are ready no matter what happens.\u201d Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine\u2019s border but is denying that it is planning an attack. Putin claimed on Tuesday that the U.S. was trying to pull Russia into a conflict that it did not want but said that he hoped \u201cdialogue will be continued.\u201d Russian officials have demanded pledges that Ukraine will never join NATO and a removal of NATO troops and weapons from Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The president can take action without Congress to sanction Russia, and the White House has already threatened robust sanctions should an invasion take place. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that the administration had developed \u201cspecific sanctions packages for both Russian elites and their family members\u201d who are \u201cin or near the inner circle of the Kremlin and play a role in government decision-making.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The role that Congress plays may therefore be bolstering the president\u2019s credibility as he attempts to deter Putin. These actions would be in concert with sanctions from allies, as well. Christopher Miller, the assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said that any congressional action would give the Biden administration credibility to \u201cgo to the outside world and say, \u2018We\u2019ve got bipartisan domestic backing for a pretty tough sanctions package.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe reality is that the administration already has all the authority it needs to do most of what\u2019s being discussed right now in terms of sanctions,\u201d Miller said. \u201cSo my view is that what Congress is doing is actually more impactful in terms of signaling to Russia and to allies and financial markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republican Senator Rob Portman, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said that negotiations over sanctions on Russia were focused on \u201censuring that here in Congress, we have a strong bicameral and bipartisan message to the people of Ukraine and to Vladimir Putin and the Russians that \u2026 we stand with Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWhat Russia is already doing is considered to be subject to sanctions now, and should they make a big mistake and actually invade Ukraine the consequences would be devastating,\u201d Portman said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But whether or not to impose sanctions on Russia even before Putin makes a decision is a significant point of contention among senators. The Senate last month voted down<\/a> a measure proposed by Senator Ted Cruz to sanction Russian entities associated with the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline running from Russia to Germany. Although some Democrats supported Cruz\u2019s bill, most did not, and the measure failed to clear the 60-vote threshold to avoid a filibuster; it was also opposed by the White House, which argued that it would undercut deterrence measures. Menendez has proposed a bill that would impose sanctions related to Nord Stream 2 only if Russia invaded Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Menendez said on Tuesday that Congress was close to reaching a deal on sanctions but that the remaining sticking points were over \u201cpre-invasion\u201d sanctions and Nord Stream 2. He said that there was \u201cconcern\u201d from the White House about imposing sanctions before Putin made a decision, \u201cespecially as they try to keep the unity of the international community together.\u201d Menendez later told reporters that European allies believed sanctions should be imposed after an invasion, due to concerns about provoking Putin. But he also said that any \u201cupfront\u201d sanctions would be less severe than the ones that would be implemented if Russia decided to invade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The White House and Democrats worry that imposing sanctions before Putin decides to invade Ukraine may counteract any deterrence. If Putin believes he will be sanctioned whether or not he decides to launch an invasion, that may actually push him to escalate the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cImposing some sanctions now might actually obscure that message, make it less clear to the Russian leadership that if they do go in, they\u2019re going to face really tough sanctions. [But] if they don\u2019t go in now, they won\u2019t face tough sanctions, which might help possibly to shift decision-making in the Kremlin,\u201d Miller said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Senate Democrats on the Foreign Relations Committee voiced concern about imposing pre-invasion sanctions on Russia, even as they acknowledged that Putin has already taken actions worthy of a response. \u201cPutin and Russia have already engaged in aggressive enough behavior to justify some sanctions, but we should reserve the toughest and strongest sanctions as a deterrent against further invasions,\u201d Senator Chris Coons told The New Republic<\/em> on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe should create as much jeopardy for them as possible so that they know that there\u2019ll be a real serious consequence should they make their move. I think putting sanctions on them now actually could create a situation where they see less of a cost,\u201d said Senator Cory Booker. But Booker deferred to Menendez, the senior senator from New Jersey, and said there was \u201ca lot of common ground\u201d between Republicans and Democrats on the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Senator Chris Murphy said that while he agreed with the White House that sanctions should be applied after an invasion, he believed there was room for agreement between Republicans and Democrats. \u201cIf you want to compromise, you have to compromise. So if you want to deal with Republicans on Russia sanctions, then you\u2019re gonna have to address some of their priorities,\u201d Murphy said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republican Senator John Cornyn argued that Putin\u2019s decision-making would not be influenced by pre-invasion sanctions. \u201cPutin is motivated by his own desire to reestablish the old Soviet Union,\u201d Cornyn said, explaining that he therefore had \u201cno fear or no concern\u201d about potential provocation. (Cornyn told reporters on Monday that his proposal to set up a lend-lease agreement with Ukraine would likely be included in the final sanctions package, the first time such a program would be implemented since World War II.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n While senators fret over how to address Nord Stream 2, Miller argued that the pipeline was maybe less of a priority for Russia than it is for Congress. Ultimately, a war between Russia and Ukraine and the accompanying sanctions would cost more for Russia than losing the pipeline. (While the pipeline has been built, Germany suspended its certification process<\/a> for the project last year.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI think in economic, energy, and financial terms, it\u2019s a lot less important than the U.S. thinks,\u201d Miller said, calling the pipeline a \u201csecond-tier issue.\u201d \u201cI think Congress ought to spend more time providing as much clarity as possible on the message over financial-sector sanctions, which are the ones that really matter.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Grace Segers<\/a> @Grace_Segers<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Vladimir Putin has driven Republicans and Democrats into one another\u2019s arms With the Democratic agenda stalled, members of Congress are making the best of what\u2019s around,taking bipartisan action on several key issues. Perhaps their most pressing concern at the moment is something worlds away from petty domestic debates that closed out the calendar year: taking […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":393,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n