{"id":37158,"date":"2026-06-19T15:09:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T12:09:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/?p=37158"},"modified":"2026-06-19T22:47:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T19:47:37","slug":"economic-security-gains-ukraine-eu-accession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/de\/2026\/06\/19\/economic-security-gains-ukraine-eu-accession\/","title":{"rendered":"The EU\u2019s Next Chapter: Economic, Political and Security Gains from Ukraine\u2019s Accession"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-quick-download-button-download-button aligncenter qdbn-wrapper\"><div class=\"qdbn\" data-plugin-name=\"qdbn\" data-style=\"small\" data-file=\"hide-file\" data-size=\"hide-size\" data-icon-position=\"left\"><div class=\"qdbn-download-button-inner\"><button type=\"button\" data-button-type=\"small\" class=\"g-btn f-l\" style=\"background-color:#0e107b;color:#ffffff;border-radius:25px\" data-attachment-id=\"56043\" data-page-id=\"18850\" data-post-id=\"\" data-have-external=\"false\" data-external-url=\"\" data-wait-duration=\"0\" data-target-blank=\"true\" data-msg=\"Please wait...\" data-member=\"0\" data-has-icon-dark=\"true\" title=\"Herunterladen\"><span class=\"download-btn-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M18 11.3l-1-1.1-4 4V3h-1.5v11.3L7 10.2l-1 1.1 6.2 5.8 5.8-5.8zm.5 3.7v3.5h-13V15H4v5h16v-5h-1.5z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span>Herunterladen<\/span><\/button><p class=\"up\" style=\"border-radius:0\"><i class=\"fi fi-pdf\"><\/i><\/p><p class=\"down\" style=\"border-radius:0\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M10 4H4c-1.1 0-1.99.9-1.99 2L2 18c0 1.1.9 2 2 2h16c1.1 0 2-.9 2-2V8c0-1.1-.9-2-2-2h-8l-2-2z\"><\/path><\/svg><span class=\"file-size\">23 MB<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><quick-download-button-info class=\"qdb-btn-info\"><\/quick-download-button-info><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"379\" src=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image_for_an_article-1024x379.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-37186\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image_for_an_article-1024x379.png 1024w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image_for_an_article-600x222.png 600w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image_for_an_article-768x284.png 768w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image_for_an_article-1536x569.png 1536w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image_for_an_article-2048x759.png 2048w, https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image_for_an_article-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\" translation-block\"><em>Der Bericht wurde vom Transatlantic Dialogue Center mit Unterst\u00fctzung des Askold and Dir Fund<\/em> <em>im Rahmen des Projekts \u201eStrong Civil Society of Ukraine \u2013 a Driver towards Reforms and Democracy\u201c erstellt, das von ISAR Ednannia umgesetzt und von Norwegen sowie Schweden finanziert wird. F\u00fcr den Inhalt dieser Ver\u00f6ffentlichung ist ausschlie\u00dflich das Transatlantic Dialogue Center verantwortlich. Er spiegelt in keiner Weise die Ansichten der Regierungen Norwegens und Schwedens sowie von ISAR Ednannia wider.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Peer reviewers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Dmytro Lebedyev<\/em>, Senior Expert, IT &amp; Telecom Sector at Better Regulation Delivery Office (BRDO)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Veronika Movchan<\/em>, Academic Director, Head of the Center for Economic Studies at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Anton Antonenko<\/em>, Vice President of the DiXi Group<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Vitalii Dankevych<\/em>, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Dean of the Faculty of Law, Public Administration and National Security at Polissia National University; Senior Associate at CSIS and fellow at CEPA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ivan Golturenko<\/em>, Geologist, Specialist at GPR Investigation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Yuliia Shaipova<\/em>, Affiliated Expert with the Foreign Policy Council \u201cUkrainian Prism\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Hennadiy Maksak<\/em>, Executive Director of the Foreign Policy Council \u201cUkrainian Prism\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Oleksandra Azarkhina<\/em>, Chief Specialist in the Department for the Implementation of Innovation Management and Development, Command of Close Air Defence Forces at the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors are also grateful to <em>Valentyn Badrak, Pavel Bilek, Mihai Sebastian Chihaia, Kaspars Germanis, Gustav Gressel, Iryna Kosse, Juraj Majcin, Iana Okhrimenko, Garry Poluschkin, and Maria Repko<\/em> for their valuable comments and suggestions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chapter-1-economic-assets\"><strong>Chapter 1: Economic Assets<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-1-digital-ukraine-a-strategic-contribution-to-eu-innovation\"><strong>1.1. Digital Ukraine: A Strategic Contribution to EU Innovation<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite its reputation for digital innovation, Ukraine\u2019s progress remains heavily dependent on government digital services, with weak AI adoption and limited digital transformation among businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Boosting the EU\u2019s Global Digital Competitiveness. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s thriving IT sector, with expertise in AI, cybersecurity, and digital governance, has become one of the drivers of the wartime economy, accounting for 41,6% of service exports and 12,3% of the total state\u2019s export in 2025. accounting for 41.6% of service exports and 12.3% of total national exports in 2025. With a dynamic startup ecosystem, Ukraine ranks among Europe\u2019s leading hubs for tech innovation. Deeper integration of Ukraine\u2019s digital ecosystem would strengthen the EU\u2019s competitiveness vis-\u00e0-vis the U.S. and China, reinforcing European leadership in critical technologies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Addressing the EU\u2019s digital skills gap<\/em><\/strong><em>. <\/em>Europe currently faces a shortfall of around 2 million STEM professionals, and nearly 60% of EU firms cite skills shortages as a major constraint on investment. Ukraine\u2019s accession\u2014bringing over 300,000 IT professionals and 290 institutions providing IT education\u2014would help ease these shortages and expand the EU\u2019s talent base.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Advancing E-Governance and Public Digital Services. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s Diia platform is a global leader in e-governance, offering 70+ public services to over 23 million users. It has propelled Ukraine to 1st place globally in the E-Participation Index, ahead of EU countries. Adopting Ukraine\u2019s agile digital governance models can modernise EU public services (such as online marriage registration, tax payments, etc.) and improve citizen engagement across member states.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Driving the EU\u2019s AI and Emerging Technologies Leadership<\/em><\/strong><em>. <\/em>Ukraine\u2019s AI sector is expanding rapidly, with Kyiv emerging as a leading European AI hub. Companies such as Grammarly and People.ai showcase Ukraine\u2019s capabilities in building globally competitive AI products. After the accession, Ukraine\u2019s digital ecosystem can position the EU as a global leader in AI and foster sovereign development of this domain within Europe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Integrating AI in the Miltech Sector.<\/em><\/strong><em> <\/em>While the EU has limited experience adapting to rapidly evolving warfare, Ukraine already applies AI in defence for intelligence, precision strikes and rear-area administration (Odd Systems, The Fourth Law, and Swarms). Drawing on Ukrainian public services such as Army+, Reserve+, and Brave1, EU member states could develop crisis-response digital platforms to deliver emergency alerts during natural disasters, airspace disruptions, air-quality incidents, and other emergencies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-2-strengthening-the-eu-s-labour-force-the-value-of-including-ukrainians-in-the-free-movement-of-labour\"><strong>1.2. Strengthening the EU&#8217;s Labour Force: The Value of Including Ukrainians in the Free Movement of Labour<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-0\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>The EU already bears fiscal costs supporting Ukrainians living in the EU, while Ukraine\u2019s accession could lead to larger labour migration flows and increased competition for certain jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-1\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>The EU already bears fiscal costs supporting Ukrainians living in the EU, while Ukraine\u2019s accession could lead to larger labour migration flows and increased competition for certain jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession-0\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Added value for the member states&#8217; economies. <\/em><\/strong>Ukrainians already contribute more in taxes and social contributions than they receive in welfare support in several EU member states, including Slovakia (\u20ac231 million in revenues vs \u20ac33 million in support) and Poland, where they accounted for 2.7% of GDP in 2024. Ukraine\u2019s accession is unlikely to trigger a new large-scale migration wave, but instead deepen the integration of Ukrainians already living in the EU. Combined with better skills matching and higher wages, this is likely to further increase their fiscal contribution.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Cost-free skilled labour force. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine has been investing significantly in educating and training skilled professionals who contribute to the EU labour market \u2013 58% of its population aged 30-34 has achieved a tertiary education, surpassing the EU average of 40%. The EU benefits from a highly skilled workforce without bearing the full cost of education and professional development.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Gaining access to unique skills and competencies from Ukrainians. <\/em><\/strong>Today, around 25% of EU businesses report major difficulties in hiring suitably skilled employees, and nearly 63% of SMEs report challenges in finding adequately skilled workers. Ukrainian migrants, who account for 5.2 million people in Europe, bring essential skills in short supply within the EU, notably in sectors such as construction, healthcare, and IT. Moreover, the diverse skill sets of Ukrainian migrants can drive innovation and creativity within the EU.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Alleviating pressing labour shortages in the EU<\/em><\/strong><em>. <\/em>By integrating Ukrainian workers, the EU can help alleviate pressing labour shortages driven by an ageing population and declining birth rates: by 2050, the EU\u2019s working-age population (20\u201364) is projected to decrease by 57 million. A large share of Ukrainians temporarily residing in Europe is already employed, with rates ranging from 39% to 72% across host countries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-3-ukraine-s-energy-and-green-potential-a-catalyst-for-a-sustainable-europe\"><strong>1.3. Ukraine\u2019s Energy and Green Potential: A Catalyst for a Sustainable Europe<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-2\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s ability to contribute to EU energy security is constrained by war-related damage to its energy infrastructure and limited renewable energy capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession-1\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Enhancing the EU\u2019s Renewable Energy Capacity<\/em>. <\/strong>Ukraine has significant renewable energy potential, with an estimated capacity of 83 GW in solar and 688 GW in wind. Renewables accounted for 20.4% of installed electricity generation capacity in 2025, with 3 GW of renewable energy added since 2022, even though war constraints make these figures volatile. Ukraine\u2019s accession could help the EU reach its 45% renewables target by 2030 and reduce the EU\u2019s energy import dependency (57% in 2024).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Strengthening Europe\u2019s Energy Security. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s synchronisation with ENTSO-E has expanded two-way electricity trade, increasing transfers by 77% between 2021 and 2023. Integrating Ukraine into the EU\u2019s internal energy market as a member state rather than an external supplier would provide access to diversified and reliable energy supplies, strengthen grid resilience, and help lower energy costs.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Utilizing Ukraine\u2019s Blackout-Mitigation Solutions. <\/em><\/strong>Blackouts in Portugal, Spain, and Germany highlight growing grid disruption risks across the EU. Drawing on experience gained while operating under sustained attacks since 2022, Ukraine has developed rapid restoration, backup generation, and crisis-response capabilities that can help strengthen Europe\u2019s energy resilience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Leveraging Ukraine\u2019s Gas Infrastructure to Strengthen EU Energy Resilience. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s 30 bcm underground gas storage capacity \u2014 the third largest in the world and equivalent to 29% of the EU\u2019s total \u2014 could expand EU storage by 10% and help stabilize prices. As of end\u20112025, about 200 foreign non\u2011resident entities had stored gas in Ukraine, and some European states (e.g., the Czech Republic) already recognise the system\u2019s wartime reliability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Accelerating the EU\u2019s Green Hydrogen and Biomethane Transition. <\/em><\/strong>Subject to the full development of its estimated renewable energy potential, Ukraine could potentially supply up to 1.7 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually by 2050 and 21.8 bcm of biomethane per year, around four times current EU production, supporting the EU\u2019s net-zero aims and strengthening Europe\u2019s clean-energy competitiveness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-4-not-a-threat-but-a-partner-the-value-of-ukrainian-agriculture-for-europe\"><strong>1.4. Not a Threat, but a Partner: The Value of Ukrainian Agriculture for Europe<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-3\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s accession would offer limited benefits while placing significant pressure on the EU\u2019s agricultural budget, particularly through high expected CAP payments (\u20ac7\u201310 billion per year), as well as on market stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession-2\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Prompting Long-overdue CAP Reform. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s accession aligns with and may accelerate long-discussed CAP reform toward stronger support for small- and medium-sized farms. The Commission\u2019s 2028\u20132034 MFF proposal reflects this shift and reduces the CAP envelope by 15% (to \u20ac295 billion), making assessments based on the current CAP increasingly irrelevant. Even under existing rules, concerns that Ukraine would divert CAP funds are overstated: only around 20% of its farmland (\u22485 million hectares) is eligible for subsidies, while its agricultural sector is dominated by large agribusinesses (10,000\u2013100,000 hectares) with limited need for support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Strengthening the EU\u2019s Strategic Autonomy in Food Systems. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine can help reduce the EU\u2019s reliance on external suppliers of plant proteins and key agricultural commodities. With the EU producing just 3 million tonnes of soybeans against a demand of 35 million tonnes, Ukraine\u2019s annual soybean output of over 6 million tonnes makes it a strategic partner in addressing this deficit. This would strengthen food security, support the EU\u2019s Protein Strategy, and diversify agri-food supply chains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Developing Integrated European Value Chains. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s production of cereals, oilseeds, and feed inputs complements the EU\u2019s higher-value agri-food sectors. Together, Ukraine\u2019s large-scale production and the EU\u2019s advanced processing and logistics would create integrated continental value chains, strengthen food security and supply chain resilience with limited risk of market disruption.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Building the EU\u2019s Global Agricultural Leadership.<\/em> <\/strong>With a large share of Ukrainian agri-exports, particularly grain, oriented toward global markets, Ukraine\u2019s accession would strengthen the EU\u2019s position in global agri-food competition vis-\u00e0-vis major exporters such as Russia. Combining Ukrainian and EU export capacities would increase resilience to geopolitical risks and expand market presence through stronger trade links with partners such as China, Turkey, and Egypt.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Advancing Sustainable and Innovative Agriculture. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s integration offers an opportunity to accelerate the European Green Deal across a broader regional scale, particularly in climate-smart agriculture, soil restoration, and sustainable land use. At the same time, Ukraine\u2019s use of drone technologies in precision farming, crop monitoring, and input optimisation, as well as satellite-based soil analysis, could strengthen the EU\u2019s position as an agri-tech leader.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-5-critical-raw-materials-towards-diversified-supply-through-eu-ukraine-partnership\"><strong>1.5. Critical Raw Materials: Towards Diversified Supply through EU\u2013Ukraine Partnership<\/strong><br><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-4\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s accession will not translate into concrete EU gains in critical raw materials and supply\u2011chain security, while the U.S. gets most of the benefits from Ukraine\u2019s critical raw materials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession-3\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Ukraine\u2019s critical raw materials could help meet the EU\u2019s urgent needs. <\/em><\/strong>According to the European Commission,<strong> <\/strong>the EU\u2019s overall raw materials needs are<strong> <\/strong>projected to increase six-fold by 2030. Ukraine has significant potential in materials relevant for defence and aerospace (titanium), batteries (lithium, graphite), and advanced manufacturing. Ukraine possesses deposits of 25 of the 34 minerals on the European Union\u2019s critical raw materials list. It is already a key supplier of raw materials and its further integration into the EU supply chains would help to increase these numbers.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Ukraine\u2019s critical raw materials can help derisk EU supply chains. <\/em><\/strong>The EU is vulnerable due to concentrated dependence on third-country suppliers, limited control over key value chain segments dominated by China, and exposure to disruptions in global logistics routes, as illustrated by the 2026 U.S.\u2013Iran escalation. Ukraine can reduce these risks by providing a proximate and reliable source of critical raw materials, strengthening EU supply chain resilience, reducing transport costs and strengthening European economic security.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Multiplying EU assets through favourable conditions for businesses. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s cooperation with the United States under the Critical Minerals Agreement is explicitly designed not to hinder EU integration and can be adjusted to meet future EU accession obligations. Moreover, Ukraine\u2019s favourable investment environment, including 20-year mining concessions and 50-year Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs), provides a stable legal framework for long-term foreign investment in mining and refining projects.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chapter-2-political-and-security-assets\"><strong>Chapter 2: Political and Security Assets<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-1-ukraine-s-resilience-an-opportunity-for-europe-s-multi-sectoral-fortitude\"><strong>2.1. Ukraine\u2019s Resilience: An Opportunity for Europe\u2019s Multi-Sectoral Fortitude<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-5\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><br><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s resilience model, largely shaped by wartime conditions, may not align with established EU practices, as it is perceived as a crisis-driven response rather than a long-term institutional capacity suited to the Union\u2019s context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession-4\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Adopting a tested and modernised Ukrainian resilience model inspired by the Nordic \u201ctotal defence\u201d concept. <\/em><\/strong>Confronting sustained full-scale aggression, Ukraine has stress-tested and recalibrated European resilience mechanisms in real time, turning theoretical preparedness into daily practice. Drawing on this experience, the EU could help bridge the gap between its long-standing Nordic-inspired resilience doctrine and limited operational readiness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Optimising resilience of state bodies.<\/em> <\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s system of governance has proven functional even under martial law, with the Parliament, Government, President, and local authorities continuing to operate. Amid frequent cyber threats and outdated procedures, European governments could learn from Ukraine\u2019s digitalisation of public services, optimisation of offline services for emergencies, and digital emergency notification systems, such as Diia, air alert apps, and electricity scheduling tools.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Improving the EU\u2019s emergency management while fostering more adaptive crisis responses.<\/em><\/strong> The 2025\u20132026 blackouts in Spain, Portugal, and Germany, along with cyberattacks in Norway, Denmark, and Estonia, highlight the need for stronger EU adaptation mechanisms. Ukraine provides both practical experience in rapidly restoring damaged infrastructure and transport systems, as well as innovative approaches. Despite over 1,100 attacks on railway infrastructure in 2025, it maintained rapid repairs and ensured 95% of passenger trains ran on time. At the same time, decentralised energy solutions, backup generators, and flexible electricity redistribution helped it endure the severe winter of 2026, while ad hoc \u201cInvincibility Points\u201d offered quick, effective support during energy shortages.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Enhancing EU business processes and corporate philanthropy.<\/em><\/strong><em> <\/em>Ukraine\u2019s digital public services offer lessons in optimising bureaucracy and improving service delivery. Its experience could also strengthen corporate philanthropy and values-driven business in the EU: in 2025, 79% of Ukrainian companies donated regularly to support the Armed Forces, and these contributions influenced purchasing decisions for 55% of consumers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Strengthening EU civil society. <\/em><\/strong>With an estimated 25\u201330% of Ukrainians regularly engaged in civic activity (compared to about 12.3% in the EU) and around 86% participating in charitable efforts, Ukraine\u2019s accession could inspire European societies to assume shared responsibility for state resilience through grassroots initiatives, crowd funding and crisis response.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-2-battlefield-lessons-ukraine-as-a-catalyst-for-eu-security-and-military-readiness\"><strong>2.2. Battlefield Lessons: Ukraine as a Catalyst for EU Security and Military Readiness<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-6\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Military cooperation with Ukraine remains largely ad hoc and transactional, without a structured pathway to embed Ukraine\u2019s combat-tested expertise into EU interoperability, capability development, and training standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession-5\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Enhancing EU Military Readiness.<\/em><\/strong><em> <\/em>With Europe\u2019s largest, combat-experienced army, Ukraine could accelerate the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity (5,000 troops) and strengthen PESCO initiatives. Ukrainian personnel could also help train EU forces through EUMAM and NATO initiatives such as NSATU and JATEC, while bolstering Europe\u2019s defence-industrial workforce via the roughly 300,000 people employed in Ukraine\u2019s defence industrial base.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Battle-Tested Innovation for Europe. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine can help the EU adapt to rapidly evolving warfare by exporting hard-tested doctrine. With innovation cycles compressed to weeks, Ukraine also offers a model for shortening the path from battlefield feedback to capability upgrades. Its high-intensity experience operating Western systems, reinforced by Kyiv\u2019s \u201cTest in Ukraine\u201d initiative, helps identify real-world performance limits and practical fixes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Strengthening EU Air Defence. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s frontline experience in short\u2011range air defence (SHORAD) concepts is already being exported through Ukrainian advisory and support deployments in the Middle East. If adapted and scaled within the EU, this expertise could significantly strengthen such frameworks as the European Drone Wall and the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), helping build a more effective, interoperable, multi\u2011layer European air and drone defence architecture.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Fostering EU Cyber Resilience. <\/em><\/strong>The EU faces an escalating cyber threat landscape: ENISA reported 11,000 serious cyber incidents in 2024 alone. Ukraine\u2019s accession would significantly strengthen EU cybersecurity frameworks. After more than a decade of sustained Russian cyber operations, Ukraine developed a proven model for multi-layered cyber defence and repelled roughly 14,000 cyberattacks in 2022\u20132025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Expanding EU Peacekeeping Capacity. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s accession could strengthen EU peacebuilding missions by helping address persistent constraints, including shortages of trainers and the disruptive influence of Russian-linked mercenaries. Ukraine could also contribute combat-tested counter-drone tactics and operational lessons from maritime drones such as Magura, relevant to EU maritime operations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-3-ukraine-s-military-industrial-base-a-strategic-opportunity-for-europe-s-defense-sector\"><strong>2.3. Ukraine\u2019s Military-Industrial Base: A Strategic Opportunity for Europe\u2019s Defense Sector<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-eu-misperception-about-ukraine-s-accession-7\"><strong>Common EU Misperception about Ukraine\u2019s Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s strength lies mainly in rapid assembly and tactical adaptation, rather than in \u201cbreakthrough\u201d platform innovation; it is not compatible with NATO\/EU standards, which limits its suitability for long-term, large-scale procurement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-benefits-of-ukraine-s-eu-accession-6\"><strong>Key Benefits of Ukraine\u2019s EU Accession:<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Expanding EU defence production capacity via Ukraine\u2019s industrial base. <\/em><\/strong>Since 2022, Ukraine\u2019s arms output has grown 12-fold, while overall production capacity has expanded 50-fold. Ukraine is already joining EU joint procurement frameworks, including SAFE, and has launched joint ventures and industrial partnerships with Rheinmetall, KNDS, Thales, and Saab. Deeper integration into Europe\u2019s defence industrial ecosystem would unlock economies of scale and accelerate production in high-demand areas such as drones and air-defence systems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Bolstering EU Strategic Autonomy. <\/em><\/strong>The EU remains heavily dependent on imported defence equipment, with roughly 80% of procurement sourced from outside the Union. Deeper integration of Ukraine\u2019s defence industry would strengthen Europe\u2019s own capabilities (including deep-strike assets) and reduce reliance on non-European suppliers, particularly U.S. systems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Improving Cost-Effectiveness in Procurement. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine\u2019s defence production is comparatively cost-effective. For example, the Sapsan ballistic missile is roughly three times cheaper than its Western counterpart, PrSM ($825 million vs $3 billion), while Stugna-P anti-tank guided missiles are far cheaper per unit than Javelins ($20,000 vs $175,000\u2013$200,000 per missile). If integrated into the EU market under common standards, Ukraine\u2019s cost-effective output could support the rearmament of EU member states while easing pressure on public finances, without sacrificing operational relevance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Accelerating innovation through a combat-proven, end-to-end Ukrainian ecosystem. <\/em><\/strong>Ukraine offers the EU not just individual systems or additional manufacturing capacity, but a unique end-to-end innovation ecosystem. It connects frontline needs and battlefield testing with rapid redesign, continuous upgrades, and scalable production. This integrated cycle enables innovation at a pace that is difficult to replicate within traditional peacetime procurement systems.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The report is produced by Transatlantic Dialogue Center with the support of the Askold and Dir Fund as a part of the Strong Civil Society of Ukraine \u2013 a Driver towards Reforms and Democracy project, implemented by ISAR Ednannia, funded by Norway and Sweden. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Transatlantic [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":37161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,71],"tags":[],"topic":[90,97,91,115,87],"class_list":["post-37158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reports-handbooks","category-eng-reports-eu-ukraine-partnership-program","topic-economy","topic-energy","topic-eu","topic-resilience","topic-security"],"mb":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.6 (Yoast SEO v25.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The EU\u2019s Next Chapter: Economic, Political and Security Gains from Ukraine\u2019s Accession - Transatlantic Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore Ukraine\u2019s EU accession benefits: economic, political and security gains for Europe \u2014 resilience, defence industry, energy security, digital governance and critical raw materials.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tdcenter.org\/de\/2026\/06\/19\/economic-security-gains-ukraine-eu-accession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The EU\u2019s Next Chapter: Economic, Political and Security Gains from Ukraine\u2019s Accession\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. 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